Showing posts with label Indiana basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indiana basketball. Show all posts

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Big Ten Boasts BY FAR the Best Player in Edey in the Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big Ten Conf             Team              Value AdjO AdjD   Notes                                                  
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Jalen PickettPenn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Trayce Jackson-DavisIndiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Cam SpencerRutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Hunter DickinsonMichigan8.14116.397.418-16, nba 53 in 2024
2nd T-Big Ten ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Boo BuieNorthwestern7.96106.494.37-seed, 22-12 (PG), Poss 28.6%
Joey HauserMichigan St.7.84121.496.67-seed, 21-13, Poss 19.5%
Jahmir YoungMaryland7.76106.795.68-seed, 22-13 (PG), Poss 29.4%
Terrence ShannonIllinois7.57111.994.99-seed, 20-13, nba 43 in 2024
Mason GillisPurdue7.48121.594.51-seed, 29-6, Poss 16.6%
HM-Big Ten ConfTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Keisei TominagaNebraska7.43119.698.816-16, Poss 21.3%
Caleb FurstPurdue7.33121.994.51-seed, 29-6, Poss 15.8%
Zed KeyOhio St.6.56117101.616-19, Poss 23.1%
Kris MurrayIowa6.53118.3104.68-seed, 19-14, nba 23 in 2023
Seth LundyPenn St.6.46117.5101.110-seed, 23-14, nba 46 in 2023
Steven CrowlWisconsin6.4610994.120-15, Poss 23.2%
Brice SensabaughOhio St.6.34112101.616-19, nba 28 in 2023
Miller KoppIndiana6.05125.297.24-seed, 23-12, Poss 10.9%
Filip RebracaIowa6.05118.9104.68-seed, 19-14, Poss 21.3%
Payton SandfortIowa5.88117.3104.68-seed, 19-14, Poss 22.7%
Connor McCafferyIowa5.34123.9104.68-seed, 19-14, Poss 12.1%

Above is a very late All-Big Ten Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The Big Ten boasted the second most top 300 players just behind the ACC, and that list starts with by far the best college basketball player last year and this, 7-foot-4 Zach Edey of Purdue. This doesn't mean Edey will be a dominant NBA player - he is projected to go at the end of the second round because the fast breaks in the NBA won't wait for him - but in college he is the guy who dominates both ends. While Purdue took an early exit last year - so did UVa the year before they won the national title, and this seems a great chance to end the stunning streak of the Big Ten not winning a title yet this Century (Michigan State's 2000 title is technically the last year of the 19th century).

What an incredible move to grab four of the best Pac-12 teams to basically combined the old Rose Bowl showdown into one conference. Both USC and UCLA have made Elite 8 runs in the last few years, and would give the conference 10 NCAA bids last year if they were already in the conference. Look down the current Pomeroy rankings on this chart - only one of the 16 teams would be outside the top 82 (Minnesota) in addition to Purdue being No. 1. Next season should be the greatest conference tournament in the history of college basketball.

Team               2023   2024   2025   Seed23  Rnk24
IllinoisB10B10B10929
IndianaB10B10B10479
IowaB10B10B10849
MarylandB10B10B10857
MichiganB10B10B10 39
Michigan St.B10B10B10722
MinnesotaB10B10B10 107
NebraskaB10B10B10 42
NorthwesternB10B10B10759
Ohio St.B10B10B10 50
OregonP12P12B10 37
Penn St.B10B10B101082
PurdueB10B10B1011
RutgersB10B10B10 63
UCLAP12P12B10231
USCP12P12B101030
WashingtonP12P12B10 61
WisconsinB10B10B10 23

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season
 
The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony DavisJon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 
All-American 1st Team    Team               Value    AdjO  AdjDNotes                                                
Zach EdeyPurdue13.17125.994.51-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)Connecticut11.37122.690.94-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)Houston11.25123.490.41-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan KalkbrennerCreighton10.80133.493.26-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)Utah St.10.72127.798.910-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Tylor Perry (K-State)North Texas10.37124.394.131-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)Alabama10.23117.088.21-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)Akron9.94121.9103.422-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan RobertsHouston9.90127.990.41-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)Connecticut9.88121.290.94-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)UCLA9.80113.1882-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)Penn St.9.66118.7101.110-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)UAB9.64114.797.929-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler KolekMarquette9.6311896.72-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago VescoviTennessee9.52114.287.54-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Max Abmas (Texas)Oral Roberts9.47120.2102.212-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)Indiana9.45118.597.24-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan YoungDuke9.37128.793.95-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)Memphis9.24111.196.18-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)Gonzaga9.21119.699.33-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Markquis Nowell (gone)Kansas St.8.92111953-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)Xavier8.87119.298.63-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)Kentucky8.83122.698.86-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)Louisiana8.74131.2102.913-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)Liberty8.68114.597.527-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th TeamTeamValueAdjOAdjDNotes
Azuolas TubelisArizona8.68116.196.32-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)Rutgers8.66119.490.819-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)Texas8.66116.392.12-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe ColesTCU8.64118.494.36-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie EllisUSC8.56113.397.510-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Sunday, December 25, 2022

B10 VABG Reminder Set-up for Game and Home Advantages

For Christmas Day Basketball we decided to use the home advantage advanced rules for some Big Ten match-ups. Under the Value Add Basketball Game rules games can be played on a neutral site, which we have done with most of the games we have tracked.

This blog is a good reminder on how to set up the game - see steps through the end of the blog.

However, we chose to play the following three Big Ten games with a home advantage:

Iowa 2021 at Indiana 1981
Michigan 1989 at Iowa 2021
Illinois 1989 at Michigan 1965

Under these rules, the home team can reverse any role of 36 or 66. If the visiting team has the ball and a "36" comes up, that would usually (but not always) result in the home team committing a foul. The home team can reverse that to a "66" so the referee missed the foul call. The reverse is also true, if the home team has the ball and a 66 is rolled, the home offense can reverse the result to a "36" which means the referee gave them a foul call that should not have been called. 

Over the course of a game, that will result in a few bad calls in favor of the home team, that will result in about a 3-point advantage for the home team.

The reason we picked those teams is that it gets them all to three games played - the teams ranked #1 to #37 have all played between three and nine games, so we are trying to work through and get every great team up to at least three games played.

We can then have Loyola Marymount travel to #49 Missouri, which will mean the top 49 teams have all played at least three games. 

Here are the teams ranked from #38 to #47 all-time. The number to the left is their ranking among all-time great teams in our game. After a key player from their team is listed, we then list their average points score and allowed, and then an overall ranked and their conference. So Michigan 1965 featuring Cazzie Russell is 1-1, has won their average game by a 81.0 to 71.5 score, and has a rating of 2.5.
 
38Michigan1965Cazzie Russell  11     81  71.5   2.5B10
39Iowa2021  Luka Garza   10      88    69   2.4      B10
40Loyola Marymount (WCC)1990  Bo Kimble   11  119.5    110   2.3     Mid-Maj
41Syracuse2003  Carmelo Anthony   21      76     74   2.3      ACC
42Illinois1989  Nick Anderson   11      78     77    2      B10
43Oklahoma1985  Wayman Tisdale   31    75.3   73.8  1.9      B-12
44Cincinnati2002  Jason Maxiell   22    72.8    71.5  1.9      Amer
45Missouri1982  Steve Stipanovich   20    69.5    65.5  1.5      SEC
46Michigan1989  Glen Rice   02    70.5    78.5  1.3      B10
47Indiana1981   Isaiah Thomas   11      73      73  1.3      B10

Other Set up reminders

When you set up the game, there are adjustment reminders if you plan not to use all players, since each player starts with at least 2 points, 1 foul and 1 rebound that must be given to other players. In this case 1981 Indiana's players have enough stamina that you only need seven players. Since 2 players will not be in the game, I added two points each to Isaiah Thomas (top right), Wittman and Tolbert to start each with 4 points instead of 2 points to give Indiana 20 points at the start of the 20-20 play in the game.

For the 3 rebounds we need to replace, I always work up from the starting center (Turner) so add one rebound to him and then one to Tolbert and Kitchel, the two forwards (we still call the "3" and the "4" the small forward and power forward for easy reference, even though they are often really just bigger guards with modern teams. 

Finally and most important, we need to add three fouls, and try to do it in hopes that the extra foul doesn't make anyone foul out. Obviously I added a foul to two subs, but then picked Wittman for the other extra foul since with only a "36" for fouls on his card - particularly in a home game where a 36 can be turned to a 66 - he is less likely to pick up additional fouls.

The other key in this game is the low dunk ranges and good defensive adjustments to opponents dunk ranges. If you go to the chart in teh game, Iowa is a 51-50, which means they have no automatic dunks, while Indiana calculates as a 51-48, and since that is two below no dunks it actually changes to any 51-52 being a STOP - meaning the shot is missed and defensive player gets the rebound automatically.


The instructions show coins being used to keep track of who is in the game, but another method is just to write the numbers on the team sheet. In this case, Isaiah Thomas and two other starters will play the whole game, so I write 1, 2 and 4 on their cards to show they will be in the whole game, but then 3 and 5 by the two players who will be replaced by a player on the top line. Once I cross those out and write 3 and 5 on the top line I will circle those because they will be in for the rest of the game once inserted.

Also wrote out who gets the ball on the 6, 7 or 8 roll as shown (we suggest using dimes on player getting an extra die roll if you use coins to track who is in the game).








Notice Iowa is much more confusing in their substitutions, with all 10 players being used a lot and noone on the team playing the whole game. Therefore noone is circled, but I also had to play around trying to figure out the possessions each should be in the game and writing in what possessions they would play at what position. One reason I try to play each team a few times is to catch where I have not listed suggestion rotations for a team, so I will likely add the numbers written on these cards back on the master set of cards on the google docs. Also notice that Keegan Murray, who went onto be one of the top players in the country the next year, actually played less than half of games in this season while Luka Garza was National Player of the Year.


Some who play the game have had trouble getting the scoresheet to print out correctly, with the top line being cut off or all 21 images printing from the instructions when they want to just print the scoresheet. I will show these in reverse order, but the image below shows what you hope to see on your printer that will give you a clean print of the whole scoresheet.

The screen below shows how you get to this screen - click on the scoresheet, then right click on it and save the image to your computer. From that point on, you can always pull that image up from your computer to print this image.








Sunday, November 20, 2022

College Hoops 2nd Best Conference History - Big Ten

The second greatest conference so far in our Value Add Basketball Game is the Big Ten - which has had 21 National Champions, and Maryland won the title in 2002 before joining the Big Ten. Here is the list by school - Chicago 1907-1909; Illinois 1915; Indiana 1940, 1953, 1976, 1981,1987; Maryland 2002; Michigan 1989; Michigan State 1979, 2000; Minnesota 1902, 1919; Northwestern 1931; Ohio State 1960; Purdue 1932; Wisconsin 1912, 1914, 1916, 1941.

The conference is led so far by the last undefeated team in basketball, Bobby Knight's 1976 squad, followed by the last actual Big Ten Champion, the 2000 Michigan State Spartans.

It truly is amazing the Big Ten has technically not won a title this century (2000 is technically is the last year of the 20th century). Consider that Frank Kaminsky led Wisconsin to a 2015 Final Four upset against the Kentucky team that was considered by some the greatest ever until that game. Further only a bizarre final few seconds cost Purdue a win over eventual national champ Virginia in 2018.  Michigan State is constantly on the verge of a title.

So far the top 6 teams in the conference are 15-6 against the other greatest teams, and rank second with a 5.8 rating - which estimates they are about 6 points better than the average great team in the game - or about 27 points better than the average team.


RnkGreat TeamYearKey Player           W  L  Pts    Allow  Rate
 Top 6 Other Conf  15673.768.25.8
1Indiana1976Scott May3171.359.89.6
2Michigan St.2000Mateen Cleaves3088.378.37.3
3Purdue2018Carsen Edwards4171.268.85.0
4Michigan1989Glen Rice0169.070.04.6
5Illinois2005Deron Williams3272.069.64.3
6Michigan St.1979Magic Johnson2170.362.74.1
7Wisconsin2015Frank Kaminsky2265.063.33.4
8Michigan1965Cazzie Russell1181.071.52.5
9Iowa2021Luka Garza1088.069.02.4
10Ohio St.1960Jerry Lucas0178.079.02.2
11Illinois1989Nick Anderson1178.077.02.0
12Indiana1981Isaiah Thomas1173.073.01.3
13Michigan St.2009Draymond Green6371.371.90.9
14Michigan2013Trey Burke1270.369.70.3
15Ohio St.2007Greg Oden2370.271.4-0.4
16Purdue1969Rick Mount0186.087.0-0.8
17Maryland1984Len Bias1169.568.5-3.2
18Indiana2002Jared Jeffries1367.372.8-3.9
19Maryland2002Juan Dixon1367.076.3-4.0
20Iowa2001Reggie Evans1271.075.3-5.3



We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 

Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Top College Basketball Centers this Season

In Value Add Basketball we consider the teams "center" the player who has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to the center close to the basket for a closer shot - even though not nearly as many centers play with their "back to the basket" like they did for most of the history of basketball.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and centers raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.9 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Top 10 most valuable centers are listed below. in general freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the Zags Chet Holmgrem who improves Gonzaga by 8.52 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance the Zags would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than eight points.

In his case, he improves the Zags' offense by 5.04 points per game, while his defensive rating of -3.48 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement center. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen centers through games of February 15.
 
RnkTop Freshmen CentersTeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
5Chet Holmgren #34Gonzaga8.52WCC7'0Fr
8Norchad Omier #15Arkansas St.7.79SB6'7"Fr
12Kenneth Lofton #2Louisiana Tech7.03CUSA6'7"Fr
18Johni Broome #4Morehead St.6.68OVC6'10"Fr
34DaRon Holmes #15Dayton5.84A106'10"Fr
57Fousseyni Traore #45BYU4.91WCC6'6"Fr
80Jalen Duren #2Memphis4.27Amer6'11"Fr
95Charles Bediako #10Alabama3.92SEC7'0Fr
111Eddie Lampkin #4TCU3.67B126'11"Fr
112Oso Ighodaro #13Marquette3.65BE6'9"Fr

Top 50 Centers Overall

In true value, our calculations indicate the 1st Team All-American so far should come from Kentucky, and Holgrem is in a tight races for the 2nd Team All-American center with stars from Indiana, Auburn and UNC.
 
RnkTop Centers (5)TeamVA5ConfHtTextCl
1Oscar Tshiebwe #34Kentucky11.14SEC6'9"Jr
2Trayce Jackson-Davis #23Indiana8.94B106'9"So
3Walker Kessler #13Auburn8.66SEC7'1"So
4Armando Bacot #5North Carolina8.6ACC6'10"Jr
5Chet Holmgren #34Gonzaga8.52WCC7'0Fr
6Orlando Robinson #10Fresno St.8.4MWC7'0Jr
7Hunter Dickinson #1Michigan7.89B107'1"So
8Norchad Omier #15Arkansas St.7.79SB6'7"Fr
9Jack Nunge #24Xavier7.61BE7'0Jr
10KJ Williams #0Murray St.7.27OVC6'10"Jr
11Kofi Cockburn #21Illinois7.22B107'0Jr
12Kenneth Lofton #2Louisiana Tech7.03CUSA6'7"Fr
13Mark Williams #15Duke6.96ACC7'0So
14Christian Koloko #35Arizona6.93P127'1"So
15Jake Stephens #34VMI6.88SC6'11"Sr
16Isaiah Whaley #5Connecticut6.72BE6'9"Sr
17Keve Aluma #22Virginia Tech6.71ACC6'9"Sr
18Johni Broome #4Morehead St.6.68OVC6'10"Fr
19Osun Osunniyi #21St. Bonaventure6.65A106'10"Sr
20JT Shumate #32Toledo6.56MAC6'7"Jr
21Gaige Prim #44Missouri St.6.48MVC6'9"Sr
22Javon Franklin #13South Alabama6.47SB6'7"Sr
23Yauhen Massalski #25San Francisco6.46WCC6'9"Sr
24Ryan Kalkbrenner #11Creighton6.45BE7'1"So
25Zach Edey #15Purdue6.45B107'4"So
26Matthias Tass #11Saint Mary's6.44WCC6'10"Sr
27Jamal Cain #1Oakland6.42Horz6'7"Sr
28Isaiah Mobley #3USC6.39P126'10"Jr
29Trevion Williams #50Purdue6.28B106'10"Sr
30Drew Pember #4UNC Asheville6.13BSth6'10"Jr
31Darius Days #4LSU6.07SEC6'7"Sr
32Jaylin Williams #10Arkansas6.05SEC6'10"So
33Jalen Slawson #20Furman5.86SC6'7"Sr
34DaRon Holmes #15Dayton5.84A106'10"Fr
35Bryson Williams #11Texas Tech5.8B126'8"Sr
36Jesse Edwards #14Syracuse5.79ACC6'11"Jr
37Eric Dixon #43Villanova5.76BE6'8"So
38Andre Kelly #22California5.72P126'9"Sr
39Graham Ike #33Wyoming5.7MWC6'9"So
40Luka Brajkovic #35Davidson5.61A106'10"Sr
41Felipe Haase #22Mercer5.52SC6'9"Sr
42John Harrar #21Penn St.5.48B106'9"Sr
43Nick Muszynski #33Belmont5.44OVC6'11"Sr
44Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua #23Baylor5.36B126'8"Jr
45Enrique Freeman #25Akron5.35MAC6'7"So
46Pete Nance #22Northwestern5.32B106'10"Sr
47Nate Watson #0Providence5.28BE6'10"Sr
48Josh Carlton #25Houston5.25Amer6'11"Sr
49Tanner Groves #35Oklahoma5.22B126'10"Sr
50Myles Johnson #15UCLA5.16P126'10"Sr

Sunday, January 23, 2022

Gathers Heart Attack after Alley-Oop Dunk; Could Highest Scoring Team Ever Have Won it All?

The North Carolina 1998 now has a +4.8 simulated KenPom rating to place 28th of the 136 great teams in the Value Add Basketball Game after clinging onto a 104-101 win against the highest scoring team in history - Loyola Marymount.

That was an outstanding defensive performance, believe it or not, as Loyola averaged the all-time record 122.4 points per game for the 1989-90 season behind All-Americans Bo Kimble and Hank Gathers. Loyola fans will never know if this team could have gone all the way because after completing an alley-oop dunk near the end of the season Gathers (who was only the 2nd player to lead the nation in both scoring and rebounding the year before) collapsed and died of a heart attack. The team still made the Elite 8 even without him before finally losing to No.2 UNLV.

In our game at full strength they had already defeated Dan Issel's Kentucky (1970) by a score of 138-116 to make this second round, but fell just short. Their rating of +2.0 means they are rated as 2 points better than the average great team in this game (which means about 22 points better than an average team), which ranks them 45th of our 136 great teams in the game.

Here are the updated ratings for all teams, along with how tough their average opponents was, and their average score. The following are the 13 teams still left in the current tournament we are playing and their overall rank from Duke 2001 as the 5th ranked team to Kentucky 1948 as the 78th ranked team. Below that are all 136 teams with those 13 teams bolded.

1.       Duke 2001 – 5th

2.       UCLA 1967 – 15th

3.       Baylor 2021 – 17th

4.       Kansas 1997 – 20th

5.       North Carolina – 28th

6.       Indiana 1981 – 29th

7.       Houston 1983 – 35th

8.       Michigan State 2000 – 41st

9.       Jacksonville 1970 – 47th

10.   DePaul 1980 – 59th

11.   Maryland 1984 – 70th

12.   Holy Cross 1950 – 77th

13.   Kentucky 1948 – 78th

 
RnkTeam-Year-Player you might knowWonLostKenPomSoSScoreAllow
1Kansas - 2008 - Mario Chalmers5121.3-7.07556
2UCLA - 1972 - Bill Walton6014.5-3.07262
3North Carolina - 2005 - Sean May4213.85.57363
4Virginia - 2019 - Kyle Guy4112.62.07365
5Duke - 2001 - Shane Battier10127.58069
6Indiana - 1976 - Scott May3111.86.07160
7North Carolina - 1982 - Michael Jordan5111.22.06965
8Houston - 1968 - Elvin Hayes3111.2-3.77364
9Gonzaga - 2017 - Nigel Williams-Goss3210.4-6.06959
10Connecticut - 2004 - Ben Gordon4210.3-6.07464
11Duke - 2010 - Jon Scheyer529.6-4.07467
12Villanova - 2018 - Mikal Bridges629.31.37670
13Purdue - 2018 - Carsen Edwards519.21.07269
14Louisville - 2013 - Russ Smith218.2-6.07466
15UCLA - 1967 - Lew Alcindor108.2-7.08583
16Kentucky - 1996 - Antoine Walker017.62.56467
17Baylor - 2021 - Jared Butler107.41.09168
18Auburn - 2019 - Chuma Okeke8175.07165
19Cincinnati - 1960 - Oscar Robertson1163.57074
20Kansas - 1997 - Paul Pierce105.6-0.58468
21Michigan St. - 2009 - Draymond Green625.5-5.07270
22Duke - 1992 - Christian Laettner115.4-1.37265
23Oregon - 2017 - Dillon Brooks325.2-2.06968
24NC State - 1989 - David Thompson105.22.78180
25Michigan St. - 1979 - Magic Johnson2151.07063
26NC State - 1974 - David Thompson115-4.06869
27UNLV - 1991 - Larry Johnson115-1.07776
28North Carolina - 1998 - Vince Carter204.88.08884
29Indiana - 1981 - Isaiah Thomas104.80.58264
30Illinois - 2005 - Deron Williams324.6-11.07270
31Wake Forest - 1996 - Tim Duncan214.6-2.06665
32Michigan - 1989 - Glen Rice014.63.06970
33Memphis - 2008 - Derrick Rose424.51.06966
34Oklahoma - 1985 - Wayman Tisdale314.20.07574
35Houston - 1983 - Hakeem Olajuwon1043.07964
36Iowa - 2021 - Luka Garza104-2.08869
37Syracuse - 2003 - Carmelo Anthony213.6-9.07674
38Kentucky - 2012 - Anthony Davis423.52.27266
39Michigan - 1965 - Cazzie Russell113.4-2.08172
40Wisconsin - 2015 - Frank Kaminsky2235.36563
41Michigan St. - 2000 - Mateen Cleaves102.65.0108104
42Connecticut - 1999 - Richard Hamilton012.4-1.06064
43Ohio St. - 1960 - Jerry Lucas012.23.07879
44Missouri - 1982 - Steve Stipanovich202.2-1.07066
45Loyola Marymount - 1990 - Bo Kimble1120.0120110
46Arizona - 2015 - Stanley Johnson311.82.77571
47Jacksonville - 1970 - Artis Gilmore101.61.08976
48USC - 2021 - Evan Mobley101.6-1.07767
49Georgetown - 1984 - Patrick Ewing211.42.06765
50Michigan - 2013 - Trey Burke231.21.57170
51Arkansas - 1994 - Corliss Williamson011.20.37879
52Colorado - 2021 - McKinley Wright101-1.08682
53Syracuse - 1987 - Rony Seikaly210.82.07269
54UTEP (Texas Western) - 1966 - Bobby Joe Hill210.83.06466
55Texas Tech - 2019 - Jarrett Culver320.6-2.56667
56Cincinnati - 2002 - Jason Maxiell220.62.77372
57Seton Hall - 1989 - John Morton110.6-3.07878
58Loyola-Chicago - 1963 - Jerry Harkness010.6-1.06268
59DePaul - 1980 - Mark Aguirre100.4-8.08264
61Illinois - 1989 - Nick Anderson0102.08286
60Dayton - 2020 - Obi Toppin1001.58782
62Arizona - 1997 - Mike Bibby21-0.60.56971
63Purdue - 1969 - Rick Mount01-0.82.08687
64Duke - 1986 - Johnny Dawkins01-13.8106108
65Marquette - 2003 - Dwyane Wade22-1.40.07374
66Marquette - 1971 - Jim Chones11-1.43.06869
67Georgetown - 2007 - Roy Hibbert12-1.67.07775
68Pittsburgh - 2009 - DeJuan Blair13-1.80.76062
69Kansas - 1957 - Wilt Chamberlain11-1.81.06874
70Maryland - 1984 - Len Bias10-2-5.07464
71Marquette - 1977 - Butch Lee11-2.63.36662
72San Diego St. - 2011 - Kawhi Leonard22-2.81.06972
73LSU - 1992 - Shaquille O'Neal01-2.81.08588
74St. John's - 1985 - Chris Mullin01-2.81.87576
75Creighton - 2020 - Ty-Shon Alexander11-311.07777
76Kansas St. - 2008 - Michael Beasley11-3-1.07576
77Holy Cross - 1950 - Bob Cousy10-34.0108106
79San Francisco - 1956 - Bill Russell01-3.20.06774
78Kentucky - 1948 - Alex Groza10-3.27.78885
80UNLV - 1987 - Armen Gilliam01-3.45.06482
81South Carolina - 2017 - Sindarius Thornwell12-3.60.36566
82Ohio St. - 2007 - Greg Oden24-4-1.06972
83Florida - 2006 - Joakim Noah33-4.2-2.07271
84Oklahoma St. - 2004 - John Lucas13-52.86971
85Iowa - 2002 - Reggie Evans12-5-5.07175
86St. Bonaventure - 1970 - Bob Lanier01-52.06474
87Georgia Tech - 2004 - Jarrett Jack24-5.2-7.06169
88Davidson - 2008 - Stephen Curry13-5.2-16.06467
89DePaul - 1945 - George Mikan01-5.21.05155
90Virginia - 1981 - Ralph Sampson01-5.4-0.36172
91Indiana - 2002 - Jared Jeffries13-5.6-2.06773
92Tennessee - 1977 - Bernard King11-5.67.07683
93California - 1959 - Jack Grout01-5.81.86971
94St. Joe's - 2004 - Jameer Nelson12-6-2.06876
95Seattle - 1958 - Elgin Baylor01-6.21.46264
96Utah - 1998 - Andre Miller01-6.20.06979
97Oklahoma - 2016 - Buddy Hield13-6.41.06067
98Texas - 2003 - T.J. Ford12-6.62.06976
99Wichita St. - 2013 - Fred VanVleet12-6.62.76471
100Alabama - 1977 - Reggie King01-6.60.37071
101West Virginia - 2010 - Kevin Jones13-6.8-15.07076
102Georgia Tech - 1990 - Dennis Scott01-6.82.86482
103UCLA - 2006 - Jordan Farmar23-70.06672
104Marquette - 2011 - Jimmy Butler01-7-4.08287
105Kansas - 1988 - Danny Manning01-7.62.05867
106LSU - 2006 - Glen Davis12-7.8-0.76675
107Indiana St. - 1979 - Larry Bird01-7.8-5.06976
108Maryland - 2002 - Juan Dixon13-8.20.86776
109Notre Dame - 1970 - Austin Carr11-8.2-2.06777
110La Salle - 1954 - Tom Gola01-8.24.06776
111Oklahoma St. - 1946 - Bob Kurland01-8.2-3.08082
112South Carolina - 1973 - Mike Dunleavy01-8.2-2.06672
113Wyoming - 1943 - Ken Sailors01-8.27.06073
114Auburn - 1984 - Charles Barkley11-8.42.37277
115West Virginia - 1959 - Jerry West01-8.42.06869
116Brigham Young - 1981 - Danny Ainge01-8.60.26777
117Kentucky - 1970 - Dan Issel01-8.6-1.0116138
118North Carolina - 1957 - Lennie Rosenbluth01-8.6-5.07689
119Navy - 1986 - David Robinson01-91.76177
120Villanova - 1985 - Ed Pinckney01-9.25.06572
121Georgia - 1982 - Dominique Wilkins11-9.61.07078
122Arkansas - 1978 - Sidney Monfrief01-9.6-3.05879
123Arizona St. - 1980 - Byron Scott01-103.46479
124Louisville - 1980 - Darrell Griffith01-10.4-5.05282
125Notre Dame - 1981 - Orlando Woolridge01-10.42.36891
126George Mason - 2006 - Jai Lewis03-10.62.25967
127Dayton - 1967 - Don May01-112.86988
128Creighton - 2014 - Doug McDermott03-12.8-1.66680
129Wake Forest - 2005 - Chris Paul03-135.36485
130LSU - 1970 - Pete Maravich01-134.56667
131Princeton - 1965 - Bill Bradley01-132.76279
132VCU - 2011 - Bradford Burgess03-13.84.06071
133Loyola-Chicago - 2018 - Cameron Krutwig03-14.6-5.05975
134Miami FL - 1965 - Rick Berry01-14.65.0104108
135Butler - 2010 - Gordon Hayward03-15.81.15576
136Niagara - 1970 - Calvin Murphy01-16.6-0.56884

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Isaiah Thomas and Bobby Knight Defense Tops Ga Tech for Final Sweet 16 Spot

Note: The new ratings of all D1 current college basketball players will be updated at www.valueaddbasketball.com within a week, and then updated regularly for the rest of the season (current ratings as of Christmas).

The 1st Round of the Tournament of 30 additional great teams wrapped up with Isaiah Thomas (15 points, 3 steals) and one of Bobby Knight's great Indiana defensive teams from 1981 dominating the 1990 Georgia Tech team. Indiana advances to play last year's national champions from Baylor, who dominated Notre Dame from the same 1981 season. As for Baylor's first two opponents both being from 1981, that season Indiana team was actually upset by Notre Dame early in the season but by the end of the year the Hoosiers were dominant. The Irish actually lost to BYU in the Sweet 16, while Indiana won all five tournament games by double digits and by an average margin of 23 points.

The game featured an all-time point guard match-up with Kenny Anderson (11 points), who played 16 years in the NBA, matching up with Thomas.

Georgia Tech's Dennis Scott was actually the best player in the game despite the loss, with game-highs in points (19) and rebounds (10). Scott happens to be one of three players I've played against in gems - with Dallas Comegys and Grant Hill being the others.  OK, a more accurate statement is that those three NBA players sort of played around as one of 10 players on the court while the rest of us were playing. Three different events over the years, but Comegys would grab every rebound with jumping, Scott would go ahead and switch a few 35 footers during the game, and Hill would only pass. Hill's team actually lost but when he tried to leave the court one of the winners quickly asked him to stay and take his place with the winners.

I also did have a 20 minute conversation with Bobby Knight in 2016.