A comparison of the preseason
Projected Value Add vs. the actual
Value Add of players who have only played a few games due to transfer rules or injuries reveals 61 players who should ultimately add at least 0.5 points to their team from what the current team ratings would include. On the downside, eight player injuries are reflected on the bottom names of this list because the team will now lose their Value Add. Here are the
team total's in alphabetical order,
For example, Josh Okogie's Value Add to date is just 1.21 because he has only played two games due to a suspension, but if he comes back his projection for the year is actually 7.65. A bigger deal may be UNC's Cameron Johnson, who only played one game since coming back from back surgery but projects to be worth 5.64 points per game moving forward.
The list shows the player, team, the Adj figure indicates how many more points the player should be worth to the team if playing every day moving forward. Next the "Gms" and "VA5D" indicate how many games the player has played and his Value Add based on that (e.g. if a player played one of his team's 10 games and had a 0.50 Value Add, then he would actually be on pace for a 5.00 Value Add if he had played all 10 games). The next figure is the preseason Projection in the
big Value Add database. After the conference, the notes from that database are included, such as if the players was a preseason 1st, 2nd or 3rd team all-conference pick.
As of the December 23 stats, each team's per game points above average is adjusted by the figures below, and then the NCAA tournament seed is projected based on that figure in
this blog.
| Player | Team | Adj | Gms | VA5D | Projected | Conf | Notes |
|---|
| Josh Okogie | Georgia Tech | 6.44 | 2 | 1.21 | 7.65 | ACC | All-Conf3, 6-gm susp over |
| Dorian Pickens | Stanford | 5.77 | 3 | 0.16 | 5.93 | P12 | |
| Cameron Johnson | North Carolina | 5.64 | 1 | 0.79 | 6.43 | ACC | 2017/Pittsburgh, back from surgery |
| BJ Taylor | UCF | 5.57 | 1 | 0.43 | 6.00 | Amer | All-Conf2, will return inj |
| Jaylen Adams | St. Bonaventure | 5.47 | 5 | 3.08 | 8.55 | A10 | ConfPOY |
| Jalan West | Northwestern St. | 5.39 | 5 | 2.74 | 8.13 | Slnd | PG ,ConfPOY, given 6th yr |
| Wyatt Walker | Samford | 5.30 | 2 | 0.16 | 5.46 | SC | All-Conf2 |
| Jason Carter | Ohio | 5.17 | 3 | 0.43 | 5.60 | MAC | All-Conf1, early season inj |
| Jarrell Brantley | College of Charleston | 4.68 | 1 | 0.24 | 4.92 | CAA | All-Conf1, early season inj |
| Jordon Varnado | Troy | 4.63 | 5 | 1.17 | 5.80 | SB | All-Conf1 |
| Rawle Alkins | Arizona | 4.61 | 4 | 2.46 | 7.07 | P12 | All-Conf1, returning off season inj |
| Isaiah Blackmon | St. Francis PA | 3.61 | 3 | 0.29 | 3.90 | NEC | All-Conf2, will return inj |
| Traylin Farris | Portland St. | 3.43 | 5 | 0.76 | 4.19 | Bsky | |
| Ben Richardson | Loyola Chicago | 3.40 | 2 | 0.20 | 3.60 | MVC | |
| Marcus LoVett | St. John's | 3.34 | 6 | 1.83 | 5.17 | BE | |
| Ryan Taylor | Evansville | 3.07 | 6 | 1.69 | 4.76 | MVC | All-Conf2 |
| David Skara | Clemson | 2.54 | 2 | 0.30 | 2.84 | ACC | 2016/Valparaiso |
| Rodney Simeon | Alabama St. | 2.39 | 3 | 0.11 | 2.50 | SWAC | All-Conf2 |
| Adam McDermott | Northern Iowa | 2.37 | 3 | 0.50 | 2.87 | MVC | 2016/North Dakota |
| Arkadiy Mkrtychyan | Idaho | 2.31 | 5 | 0.65 | 2.96 | BSKy | |
| Ikenna Smart | Buffalo | 2.22 | 3 | 0.12 | 2.34 | MAC | |
| Christ Koumadje | Florida St. | 2.18 | 3 | 0.32 | 2.50 | ACC | |
| Kyle Clark | Saint Mary's | 2.17 | 3 | 0.32 | 2.49 | WCC | |
| Andrew Kostecka | Loyola MD | 2.16 | 5 | 1.13 | 3.29 | Pat | |
| Connor McCaffery | Iowa | 2.09 | 3 | 0.17 | 2.26 | B10 | SF |
| Guillien Smith | Dartmouth | 2.07 | 2 | 0.12 | 2.19 | Ivy | |
| Petr Herman | Loyola Marymount | 1.87 | 1 | 0.10 | 1.97 | WCC | |
| Dajour Dickens | Providence | 1.84 | 3 | 0.08 | 1.92 | BE | C |
| Michael Gilmore | Florida Gulf Coast | 1.73 | 3 | 0.11 | 1.84 | Asun | 2016/VCU |
| Chase Johnson | Florida | 1.64 | 4 | 1.01 | 2.65 | SEC | PF |
| Chris Wray | Mount St. Mary's | 1.58 | 3 | 1.83 | 3.41 | NEC | |
| Jordan Walker | Seton Hall | 1.48 | 2 | 0.12 | 1.60 | BE | |
| Pape Diatta | Georgia | 1.42 | 3 | 0.04 | 1.46 | SEC | |
| Brandon Sampson | LSU | 1.40 | 4 | 2.44 | 3.84 | SEC | |
| Lawson Schaffer | Alabama | 1.40 | 3 | 0.21 | 1.61 | SEC | |
| Avi Toomer | Bucknell | 1.37 | 3 | 0.16 | 1.53 | Pat | |
| Destin Barnes | Boston University | 1.33 | 2 | 0.07 | 1.40 | Pat | |
| Jordan Lyons | Southern Utah | 1.28 | 3 | 0.02 | 1.30 | SEC | |
| Hunter Rhodes | Northern Iowa | 1.28 | 4 | 0.86 | 2.14 | MVC | |
| Jake Killingsworth | Columbia | 1.27 | 2 | 0.10 | 1.37 | Ivy | |
| Luke McDonnell | Northern Iowa | 1.26 | 4 | 0.41 | 1.67 | MVC | |
| Lance Thomas | Louisville | 1.24 | 5 | 0.99 | 2.23 | ACC | PF |
| Christian Keeling | Charleston Southern | 1.23 | 6 | 3.47 | 4.70 | BSth | All-Conf2 |
| Harry Froling | Marquette | 1.21 | 2 | 0.10 | 1.31 | BE | 2017/SMU |
| Jesse Bunting | Fordham | 1.17 | 5 | 0.67 | 1.84 | A10 | |
| James Banks | Texas | 1.12 | 6 | 0.75 | 1.87 | B12 | |
| Terry Maston | Baylor | 1.10 | 6 | 2.83 | 3.93 | B12 | |
| Luke Rosinski | New Hampshire | 1.10 | 3 | 0.15 | 1.25 | AE | |
| Jorden Kite | Incarnate Word | 1.03 | 4 | 0.44 | 1.47 | Slnd | |
| Victor Uyaelunmo | USC | 0.94 | 5 | 0.63 | 1.57 | B12 | C |
| Solomon Hainna | Evansville | 0.82 | 3 | 0.31 | 1.13 | MVC | |
| Henrik Jadersten | Santa Clara | 0.78 | 5 | 0.56 | 1.34 | WCC | |
| Jorge Rosa | New Orleans | 0.75 | 2 | 0.76 | 1.51 | Slnd | |
| Ryan McMahon | Louisville | 0.74 | 4 | 1.10 | 1.84 | SEC | |
| Matt Staubi | Loyola MD | 0.70 | 4 | 0.45 | 1.15 | Pat | |
| Zach Nelson | Utah Valley | 0.66 | 5 | 0.82 | 1.48 | WAC | |
| Jamar Martin | Charleston Southern | 0.65 | 4 | 0.41 | 1.06 | BSth | |
| Adarius Avery | Loyola Chicago | 0.65 | 4 | 0.49 | 1.14 | MVC | SF Connors State (JUCO 2017) |
| Malik William | Clemson | 0.61 | 5 | 0.86 | 1.47 | ACC | PF |
| Jeremy Combs | LSU | 0.52 | 6 | 0.81 | 1.33 | CUSA | C |
| Shawn Johnson | Incarnate Word | 0.51 | 5 | 2.99 | 3.50 | Slnd | |
| Davon Dillard | Oklahoma St. | -0.61 | 4 | 0.24 | gone | B12 | Gone |
| Lamarr Kimble | Saint Joseph's | -0.67 | 1 | 0.07 | gone | a10 | All-Conf2, 4.3 projection, but gone |
| Rapolas Ivanauskas | Northwestern | -0.88 | 3 | 0.26 | gone | B10 | |
| Ryan Singer | San Jose St. | -1.30 | 2 | 0.26 | gone | MWC | |
| Darius Hicks | North Carolina St. | -1.34 | 4 | 0.54 | gone | ACC | |
| Kobe King | Wisconsin | -1.57 | 10 | 1.57 | gone | B10 | |
| Deontae Hawkins | Boston College | -2.35 | 8 | 1.88 | gone | ACC | |
| Jalen Harris | Louisiana Tech | -2.86 | 9 | 2.57 | gone | CUSA | |
