Statis-Pro within 0.02 Runs Per Game of Actual MLB as Cubs-Mets Wrap Up 2nd Round

Executive Summary: Feeling good about the accuracy of our  formulas for Statis-Pro baseball cards. Through 43 games:

1. Our games average 4.26 runs per game compared to 4.28 for the actual MLB last year.

2. In 43 games, 12 were 5+ run wins, counted as 3 games to 0 sweeps - the exact same 28% of all MLB games that are decided by 5+ and 28% that are 3 games to none sweeps.

3. The only two teams winning at least 10% more games in Statis-Pro than last season are Pittsburgh and Arizona - also the two biggest surprises in the NL this season and leading the NL Central and West.

Click for links to get your own current and all-time Statis-Pro player cards and free game. We track our results in this Google sheet. The best ERAs in our game are at the bottom of the blog.

Full Update and Standings

The Cubs vs Mets will wrap up our 2nd time through the 4-man rotation for each NL team in our Statis-Pro season.  The Cubs will throw Marcus Stroman, a PB 4-7, against the Mets Kodai Senga, the dominant PB 2-7 Japanese strikeout pitcher.

So far the Mets and Cubs are among 8 of 11 Statis-Pro teams tracking their actual MLB 2022 season. A team should play 0.027 percentage below last year's winning percentage because four bottom teams are left out of the league so they miss some easy wins. 

We broke out the SWEEPS (5+ run wins in our game) by team below. Through 20 games we noted that 0 games were sweeps whereas normally 28% of all 3-game series are a sweep just as 28% of the time one of the team wins by at least 5 runs - in other words a team sweeps their opponents 14% of the time and is swept 14%. That all evened out as 12 of the last 23 games were +5 run sweeps to bring the overall season to 12 sweeps in 43 games to bring the average to almost exactly the MLB average 28% for the season.

Also after 20 games we noticed the average runs scored per game was low at 4.1, but it has now risen to 4.26. The actual average for the 2022 MLB season was 4.28.

The two teams running at least 10% ahead of last year's actual season are the Statis-Pro Arizona Diamondbacks (13-11 but were only 0.430 winning percentage last year against top 11 teams) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-13 but were only 0.356 in real MLB). Those two are also the two surprise 2023 Divisional leaders this year, so they've both jumped forward both in the MLB and Statis-Pro season 

The Cincinnati Reds are the only team winning more than 10% fewer than they should after being swept back to back to St. Louis in the last two games to fall to 6-18 after having a bad but slightly better 0.356 last season. The chart indicates in our game the Reds are 6-18, but if you read across their line you see they are actually 1-7. Their one win was not by 5+ runs so they only received 2 wins and 1 loss for that, while four of their losses were closer and three were 5+ run sweeps - so all together 6-18.

Team	Wins	Losses	Statis-Pro	Actual 2022 -0.027	Sweep Win by 5+	Win 2-1	Loss 1-2	Swept Lost by -5
LAD	16	8	0.667	0.658	1	6	1	0
STL	14	10	0.583	0.547	2	3	2	1
NYM	12	9	0.571	0.596	1	3	3	0
AZ	13	11	0.542	0.430	2	2	3	1
ATL	13	11	0.542	0.596	1	4	2	1
MIL	13	11	0.542	0.504	2	1	5	0
SDP	12	12	0.500	0.522	1	4	1	2
PHI	11	13	0.458	0.510	1	2	4	1
PIT	11	13	0.458	0.356	1	2	4	1
CHC	8	13	0.381	0.430	0	3	2	2
CIN	6	18	0.250	0.356	0	1	4	3
ToT	129	129	0.500	0.500	12	31	31	12

The Reds lost 100 games last year. They fell deeper into the basement at 6-18 after a double sweep at the hands of the Cardinals.

The Cardinals took batting practice off the Reds, with Nolan Gorman hitting three homers and combining with Tyler O'Neill and Lars Nootbaar for six homers and 11 hits in 25 at bats. The 9-0 and 10-5 wins both counted as sweeps, giving the Cardinals the first double sweep of our season so far, meaning they are credited for 6 wins and 0 losses in the series to improve to 14-10.

Here are the best ERAs after just two starts per pitcher - minimum 8 innings pitched.

Rnk	Row Labels	Team	IP	ER	ERA	Score	Allow	Tm Win	Tm Loss
1	Mark Leiter JR	Chi	12.3	0	0.00	4	0	4	2
2	Ranger Suarez	Phi	12	0	0.00	9	6	4	2
3	Kyle Wright	Atl	10	0	0.00	14	0	5	1
4	Spencer Strider	Atl	14	1	0.64	6	6	3	3
5	Zac Gallen	Ari	14	1	0.64	7	5	3	3
6	Jordan Montgomery	StL	12.3	1	0.73	6	2	3	3
7	Roansy Contreras	Pit	12	1	0.75	13	2	5	1
8	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	13.7	2	1.31	4	2	4	2
9	Aaron Nola	Phi	13	2	1.38	4	6	3	3
10	Justin Verlander	NYM	12.7	2	1.42	7	3	4	2
11	Max Fried	Atl	12.7	2	1.42	11	4	4	2
12	Corbin Burnes	Mil	13.3	3	2.03	1	7	2	4
13	Blake Snell	SD	12	3	2.25	10	4	4	2
14	Julio Urias	LAD	12	3	2.25	14	10	4	2
15	Freddy Peralta	Mil	10	3	2.70	14	11	3	3
16	Yu Darvish	SD	10	3	2.70	8	9	3	3
17	Miles Mikolas	StL	13.3	4	2.71	13	7	5	1
18	Nick Lodolo	Cin	13	4	2.77	8	8	3	3
19	Brandon Woodruff	Mil	13	5	3.46	10	5	4	2
20	Justin Steele	ChC	12.3	5	3.66	4	10	1	5

Dodgers Barely Split with Speedy Pirates - Betts Arm and Bat Key

The Pirates were.the first team to steal 4 bases in one two game series to split with the first place Dodgers. Details to follow.

After originally being relegating from our league, the speedy Pirates seemed to prove they deserved to be added in their four catch-up series. The Dodgers won their first three series over the DBacks, Cardinals and Brewers - but the Pirates were the first team to split a series with them. The Dodgers are still first at 16-8 while the Pirates are a very respectable 11-13.

Further, the Dodgers barely held on for a 3 game to 3 sweep.

Ji Hwan Bae went 3 of 3 in steals to make the Pirates the first team to steal four games in a Statis-Pro series this season, and was in scoring position to tie the first game in the top of the 9th. After a Ke'Bryan Hayes singled to apparently tie the game, but Mookie Betts is a T5 and threw him out at home. While the old Statis-Pro runners advancing on hits is still used for if the runner makes it safely - but they often simply need to stop at the same number of bases as the hitters unless the 11-88 number is in the 80s. 

However, a T5 like Mookie Betts throws the runner out on 81-88 so he threw him out to preserve the win. His assist preserved the lead, and he was also the hitting star with a 4 of 9 series with 3 doubles.

The second game the Pirates won 5-1 but had two chances to get the 5-run lead to take the SWEEP, which would have resulted in a 4 games to 2 credit for the series. In the 7th Ji-Man Choi doubled and was on 3rd base with one out but was straned and then in the 8th Oneil Cruz stole the Pirates 4th base of the series and was in scoring position but was left stranded. 

While the 5-1 win got the 2 games to 1 win for that game and evened the series 3 games to 3, if either runner had scored it would have made it 4 games to 2 overall due to the 6-1 final.

Roansy Contreras held the Dodgers in check for just 1 run in 6 innings pitched.

Pirates Face PB 2-8, One of 22 Upgraded Pitchers

The Pirates will be caught up with the rest of the league after their 4th home-and-home series, this one with the Dodgers. Unfortunately the need to face Julio Urias first, who is one of 22 pitchers upgraded based on their 2022 WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

These pitchers now all have their PB in red in the set of cards, in Urias case a PB 2-8, while still allowing singles up to 23 and only 4 walks allowed (43-46). If a team has a completely new card then we put the entire card in red, such as Trevor McGill in the Brewers set, as he was traded from Minnesota. Our hope in doing this is that if you've already printed your cards then you can just write in "2-8" by Urias or others. 

Statis-Pro originally would upgrade certain pitchers from the PB determined purely by their ERA (or FIPs) if they had a certain number of Wins on the season. As Wins became a less used stat, I stopped using that. However, it occurred to me the logic behind inventor Jim Barnes doing this made sense - but it made more sense to use WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Therefore if a pitcher had a 2022 WAR of at least 4.5 then they must be at least a PB 2-8. If their WAR was at least 3.0 then they need to get at least a PB: 2-7. Below are the pitchers who we upgraded in the game.

Team	Upgraded Pitcher due to WAR	Original	Upgrade
ARI	Zac Gallen	2-7	2-8
ARI	Merrill Kelly	4-7	2-7
ATL	Max Fried	2-7	2-8
ATL	Kyle Wright	4-7	2-7
CHW	Dylan Cease	2-7	2-8
CIN	Alexis Diaz	2-6	2-7
CLE	Triston McKenzie	4-7	2-7
COL	Daniel Bard	2-6	2-7
HOU	Cristian Javier	4-7	2-7
KCR	Brady Singer	2-7	2-8
LAA	Tyler Anderson	2-5	2-7
LAD	Julio Urias	4-7	2-8
LAD	Tony Gonsolin	2-6	2-8
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	2-7	2-8
NYY	Nestor Cortes	4-7	2-7
SDP	Yu Darvish	4-7	2-8
SDP	Michael Wacha	2-6	2-7
SFG	Logan Webb	2-7	2-8
TEX	Martin Perez	4-7	2-8
TOR	Alek Manoah	4-7	2-8
TOR	Chris Bassitt	4-7	2-7

From best to worst, each pitcher can be a PB 2-9, 2-8, 2-7, 4-7, 2-6, 2-5 or worst 2-4.

adddddd

All-time great Statis-Pro players and teams also available

While we are posting updates on the current seasons a reminder that you can also use all-time great players and teams in the Statis-Pro baseball game.

Click for the free Statis-Pro Master Baseball Game. Click here for 60 of the all-time great MLB teams, or on teams of many of the all-time great players on teams by nation or state with one sheet for each team. Or click on the 2023 pitchers and 2023 batters in card form. You simply print two teams cards and then either print theaster link above and fast action cards in master link or buy the dice to start playing.

The first card on the first team page has the full name of the team, and some blank cards may appear the end in case you need to create a card for a new player. 

DBacks and Pirates Split on Catcher Clutch Defense Play

 Endy Rodriguez scored from 3rd to give the Pirates a 3-2 win in 10 innings when the catcher could not field the ball on a clutch defense grounder. The CD-C line on the pitcher's cards was an invention we added several years ago in the former Passed Ball location on the card. The additional placed more emphasis on catcher's defense, and in this case a weaker CD-2 (CD-5 is gold glove level) meant the catcher could not get to a roller thank a good fielder would have gotten for the out.

Carlos Santana put the ball in play that could not be picked up.

Arizona won the nightcap 6-2 for a series split. Arizona is not 13-11 in the game, while Pittsburgh is 8-10.

Both teams had similar stars, as shown in the photo. 

The Pirates Ji Hwan Bae and DBacks Seth Beer both had four hits in the series including two extra base hits each. Bae also used one on only 5 AAA SP (steal) ratings to steal third base as part of the first double steal of our Statis-Pro season.

Meanwhile both home starting pitchers delivered in our home-and-home series. The Pirates Luis Ortiz went 5 one hit shut out innings though he wasn't around for the win. Then Merrill Kelly went 6 shutout 2-hit innings for the DBacks in the win.

Click for the free Statis-Pro Master Baseball Game. Click here for 60 of the all-time great MLB teams, or on teams of many of the all-time great players on teams by nation or state with one sheet for each team. Or click on the 2023 pitchers and 2023 batters in card form. You simply print two teams cards and then either print theaster link above and fast action cards in master link or buy the dice to start playing.

The reference to our league rule in which we count each game as a 3-game series, which is only a sweep if the winning team led by more than 5 runs after 8 innings, is not necessary to the game - just a fun rule that makes it more likely better teams will win as many games as they would if you could play more games because run differential predicts future results, and teams have a 14% chance of winning by 5 runs and a 14% chance of sweeping a 3-game series.

Adjustments to 11-88 Results Make Vogelbach Sit; Verlander Beats Cubs

 The Cubs have taken most advantage of the new stolen base opportunities, with three players upgraded and in the line-up - the biggest surprise is Ian Happ calculating as an OBR/SP: C/A meaning he is average getting around the bases (C), but so far a good base stealer this year (A). Nico Hoerner is upgraded to an AA, and Cody Beglinger to an A to give the Cubs great basestealing.

We also had to show Daniel Vogelbach's card at the other extreme as an "E." If a player steals just one base all year they become a "D," but as we know from the commercial this is year No. 8 in which he is an E for no steals. Vogelback is a D running the bases, and once gutted out a run home after badly straining a hammy coming around 3rd base.

However, he was out for today's game against a lefty starter, so we thought this would be a good game post to go over times you change from the 11-88 result on the card.

11-14 - If a batter does not hit as well against either left- or right-handed pitching, then the number 11, 12, 13 or 14 will appear before (for facing lefties) or after (for facing righties) a dash near the bottom of his card. When this happens, he strikes out on 11 through that number. So Vogelbach has a really good batting card BUT against lefties like our Cubs starter Justin Steele today his "14" means he strikes out on 11-14. Most important, this happens whether the number is on the pitcher or batter card so 11-14 kills a batter. When the Mets face a lefty we sub Tommy Pham into the game - and in this case he homered twice against Steele to key a 7-2 "sweep" win.

Top Number on Home Run range. Using Vogelbach's cards as an example, he hits home runs on 18-24. Certain 2023 pitchers have a line on the bottom of their card saying to turn the top number on a home run range from a home run to an out - so if he faced one of those pitchers then a 24 would become a deep fly out with all runners advancing one base. Home runs only occur on the batters card.

Lowest Number on Out Range. To balance this, some pitchers like the Mets and Verlander have a note that the lowest number in the out range becomes a homer. Obviously Vogelbach will not face fellow met Verlander, but if he did then his 66-88 would tell us that a 66 is now a homer rather than out for Vogelbach. This is only on the batters card.

78-84 on pitcher's card convert outs to strikeouts in 2023. This fixes a mistake in our calculations this year. For years, the Statis-Pro batting card formulas were set assuming there would be an average of 11 strikeouts on each pitcher card. However, when going back to the dead ball era, that number had to be shifted to 7 or less, and in more reason seasons it had to be increased to 17. Whatever that number, it has to be set as the average number of strikeouts for pitchers. This year I accidentally set it at the old number of 11, but then subtracted 17 when calculating each batter's card, so in the end all pitchers have 6 too few strikeouts on their 2023 projected cards. Luckily the numbers 77-84 are almost always outs, so as long as that result on a pitcher's card would have been an out, change it to a strikeout and all cards are completely accurate.

85-88 can change out to single, runners advance two bases. If instead of a number from 11-14 (see above) a player has an 85, 86, 87 or 88 before or after the dash at the bottom, then they change that result up to 88 to a single and runners advance two bases. Remember this is a huge improvement, because it adjust that number on both the batter and opposing pitcher card.  As you can see, Vogelbach has an 88, so when he is facing a right-handed pitcher the result of 88 on either his card or the pitcher's card becomes a single instead of an out.

Below this first photo, we show the scoresheet in the Mets 7-2 "sweep" of the Cubs. With that result, the three NL teams that won 100 games last year - the Dodgers, Mets and Braves - are now the only three teams in our Statis-Pro baseball season with at least 13 wins.

Mets 7, Cubs 2 (Sweep)

Jeff McNeil homered with two outs in the 8th to give the Mets a 7-2 lead, as the last chance to get to the 5+ run margin by the end of the 8th inning without using their closer. As mentioned above, Pham started to avoid Vogelbach opposing a lefty, and hit two homers. Pete Alonso added another homer.

The Cubs could not take advantage of their new 2023 speed despite nine hits. They did score two in the 6th with help from a Francisco Lindor error at short. While still a great player, Lindor dropped from a CD-5 (best clutch defense) to a CD-4 this year, and despite the bases being closer together has not regained his stolen bases of the past. He is a B/C with only 2 steals in the actual season.

Verlander got the win with 6 innings, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk and only 1 earned run.

Click for the free Statis-Pro Master Baseball Game. Click here for 60 of the all-time great MLB teams, or on teams of many of the all-time great players on teams by nation or state with one sheet for each team. Or click on the 2023 pitchers and 2023 batters in card form. You simply print two teams cards and then either print the master link above and fast action cards in master link or buy the dice to start playing.

. The reference to our league rule in which we count each game as a 3-game series, which is only a sweep if the winning team led by more than 5 runs after 8 innings, is not necessary to the game - just a fun rule that makes it more likely better teams will win as many games as they would if you could play more games because run differential predicts future results, and teams have a 14% chance of winning by 5 runs and a 14% chance of sweeping a 3-game series.

Phils Take Braves and ALL NEW Statis-Pro 2023 Projected Baseball Cards

 Here are all of the extra Statis-Pro batter cards for players not in the original set of 2023 Projected Cards.

In our first game after printing these, the Braves were at Philadelphia.

Note that Ronald Acuna is now an AAA speed for steals so we just write that in. Sam Hillard off the bench is an A.

The two jew cards for the Phillies, Cody Clemens and Mark Mathias, actually look good enough to hit in place of Alex Bohm and Bryson Stott. However lefty Max Fried pitches this game, so we will let them debut in the second game with Charlie Morton on the mound.

The Phillies first two batters Trea Turner and JT Realmuto calculate as A speed, but both were already A. Results below photo.

Phillies benefitting from what if format allowing injured players to play as Rhys Hoskins (actually out for season) homers twice and Bryce Harper (out so far) homers. The Phil's get credit for a sweep in 7-3 win but blew first game 6-3 to only win series 4-2.

In 9th iñning of first game 3-2 lead slipped away behind errors on shortstop Trea Turner and 3rd baseman Austin Riley and Harper and Jake Cave letting hits drop on clutch defensive plays. Add 2 walks by Jose Alvarado.

Click for the free Statis-Pro Master Baseball Game. Click here for 60 of the all-time great MLB teams, or on teams of many of the all-time great players on teams by nation or state with one sheet for each team. Or click on the 2023 pitchers and 2023 batters in card form. You simply print two teams cards and then either print the master link above and fast action cards in master link or buy the dice to start playing.

Chart for Deep Drive by Ball Park in Statis-Pro (Home Run or Deep Fly Out)

The following are the DEEP ranges for each MLB ballpark for the 2023 season. The only number you need during the game is the "DEEP HR if" range. If a DEEP comes up on a Statis-Pro Batters' card then a new random number or dice roll of 11-88 is a home run if in the range, or a if outside the range it is a deep drive caught and any runners on base advance (a player can even go from 1st to second).

The third column simply lets you see how the cards are calculated to account for ballpark. In a pitchers' park the batter had one home run added to their cards in calculation for the homers they lost by hitting in a pitcher's park and this is offset by each pitcher who benefited from the same field also giving up an extra homer on opposing batters' cards.

Players who play half their games in a batters' park get the opposite adjustment.

If you ever just want to play a game in a neutral park, then 11-35 is a Home Run and 36-88 is a deep fly out, all runners advance.

32 New Statis-Pro Batter Cards for Players on MLB Active Rosters

We cross referenced the Statis-Pro projected batter cards with current active rosters, and found 32 MLB players without a Statis-Pro card. This includes Ji Hwan Bae andTim Locastro who we added yesterday when we found them as two of the new speedsters under the new surge in stolen bases.

We have calculated these 32 additional batters and added everything that will go on the card below, however we have not yet added this info to the doc above yet, so if playing one of the teams then you can use this info to write up a temporary card. We previously added all the extra pitchers to these Statis-Pro pitcher cards.

The following are the top 10 projected OPS among those 32 new card calculations listed below. However, it appears Brandon Dixon of the Padres because players in a pitchers' park like PETCO actually have 1 Home Run number added to their total because their projects are held down by playing half their games in a pitchers' park. Therefore instead of the HR 24-28 that would have been on his card if he played in a neutral park, his home run range is a very impressive 24-31 - 6 home run number not to mention any homers he gets off deep drives. He also can steal and run bases with a B/B On base running and steals. 

On the flip side, CJ Cron's projections benefit from playing in Colorado boosts his numbers. It so happens his card actually calculates to a 24-31 home run range - but players in a hitters park lose one home run number so he gets a 24-28 home run range. A coincidence, but Cron and Dixon's home run ranges are flipped based on the ballparks. The reverse of this home run adjustments for ballparks is calculated into the team's pitcher cards - so a Colorado pitcher gets to take one home run off each opposing batter's range, while a San Diego pitcher adds a home run to opposing batters card.

OPS	team	Player card	OBR/SP
0.785	COL	CJ Cron	D/E
0.729	DET	Kerry Carpenter	C/D
0.727	BOS	Kiké Hernández	D/D
0.727	LAA	Logan O'Hoppe	C/D
0.725	SDP	Brandon Dixon	B/B
0.724	CIN	TJ Friedl	A/B
0.724	SDP	Nelson Cruz	C/D
0.722	HOU	Yainer Díaz	D/D
0.722	NYM	Brett Baty	D/D
0.715	PIT	Ji Hwan Bae	A/AAA

28 Statis-Pro Cards Upgrades on Steals to A, AA or Rickey Henderson level AAA

 The increase in stolen bases this season due to the bases being larger and closer together has been taken advantage of by certain teams in particular - the Pirates, Cubs and Mets to name a few. Overall, 82% stolen base attempts have been successful compared to only 65% last year.

In a previous post, we updated the Stolen Base charts to get those percentages correct, with odd numbers on Stolen Base Attempts never resulted in a Caught Stealing, only in the runner not getting a break on the chart. However, we also just upgraded some cards who are stealing a lot more bases in the early season. To start the season, there were only two AA stolen base ratings, and neither of them had played this season, and there were zero AAA ratings - a rating reserved in Statis-Pro history for Rickey Henderson and a few other elites. 

On the other end of the extreme, there are still SP: E players who cannot steal, such as Daniel Vogelbach, who dreams of his first steal in this hilarious commercial.

However, we upgraded any player in the game who hit these thresholds so far this season:

SP: AAA (5 players now in the game) requires at least 8 steals so far AND at least one stolen base for every 3 singles or walks (33% on the chart below). Rickey Henderson did it 12 times including when he was 23 (130 steals and 221 singles or walks for 59%). Despite his bases being the old distance, he was successful 82% of the time and had a ratio of 33% for a SP: AAA at the ages of 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 30,  31, 34, 38.

SP: AA (10 players now in the game) requires at least 6 steals so far AND at least one stolen base for every 4 singles or walks (25% on the chart below). Rickey hit this mark for a SP: AA at the age of 20, 28, 32, 33, 38, 39, 41 - yes at 41 years old he would have been one of the 15 best ranked base stealers in this game even without the bases being closer together and bigger.

SP: A (13 players upgraded to A, but others in the game were already SP: A) requires at least 4 steals so far AND at least one stolen base for every 7 singles or walks (14% on the chart below).

Other players kept their rating of SP: B, SP: C or SP: D, or if they are projected to to not steal a single base, then SP:E - meaning they are not allowed to steal in a game. While not listed on the chart, Vogelbach's career stats are:

SP: E (Daniel Vogelbach and several others). Vogelbach's career stats include 257 walks, 174 singles and 0 stolen bases for 0% if we included him on the chart below.

The chart of the 40 players who hit these marks are below in order. We list Tim Locastro and Tyler Wade first without a percentage, because they are pinch running to get steals with few at bats so the ratio doesn't matter. The best ratio is the 23 year old Rickey Henderson at 59%, with Jose Azocar the highest this year with 56% but he is only a SP: A because it is only 5 steals. The highest this year who qualifies is the Pirates Ji Hwan Bae of the Pirates, with 10 steals against only 19 total singles + walks.

We actually did not have cards in the game for Bae or Locastro because we did not expect them to have enough plate appearances, so we have added their cards to the game while for other players we just upgraded their SP rating as indicated on the table below with "SB orig" showing their card rating and then what it was changed to with "Now."

rnk	Rickey Henderson or	Team	SB orig	Now	SB	1b or W	Ratio
	Tim Locastro	NYM	new	A	4	0	PR
	Tyler Wade	OAK	A	A	4	3	PR
	23 year old Rickey	OAK			130	221	59%
1	Jose Azocar	SD	C	A	5	9	56%
2	Ji Hwan Bae	PIT	new	AAA	10	19	53%
	24 year old Rickey	OAK			108	212	51%
3	Jorge Mateo	BAL	A	AAA	8	16	50%
	27 year old Rickey	NYY			87	185	47%
4	Tim Anderson	CWS	A	A	5	11	45%
5	Corbin Carroll	AZ	A	AAA	10	22	45%
	29 year old Rickey	NYY			93	213	44%
6	Esteury Ruiz	OAK	A	AAA	8	21	38%
	38 year old Rickey	ANA			16	42	38%
	30 year old Rickey	OAK			52	136	38%
	21 year old Rickey	OAK			100	261	38%
7	Jazz Chisholm	MIA	A	AA	7	19	37%
	26 year old Rickey	NYY			80	214	37%
	25 year old Rickey	OAK			66	186	35%
	34 year old Rickey	TOR			22	62	35%
	31 year old Rickey	OAK			65	192	34%
8	Starling Marte	NYM	A	AA	7	21	33%
9	Ronald Acuna	ATL	A	AAA	13	39	33%
10	Jeremy Pena	HOU	B	AA	6	18	33%
11	Chas McCormick	HOU	C	A	4	12	33%
	22 year old Rickey	OAK			56	168	33%
12	Cedric Mullins	BAL	A	AA	10	31	32%
	39 year old Rickey	OAK			66	215	31%
	32 year old Rickey	OAK			58	188	31%
13	Nico Hoerner	CHC	B	AA	10	33	30%
14	Josh Lowe	TB	A	A	4	14	29%
	20 year old Rickey	OAK			33	113	29%
15	Anthony Volpe	NYY	A	AA	8	29	28%
	28 year old Rickey	NYY			41	147	28%
	33 year old Rickey	OAK			48	171	28%
16	Sam Hilliard	ATL	B	A	4	15	27%
17	Oswaldo Cabrera	NYY	C	A	4	15	27%
18	Andres Gimenez	CLE	A	AA	6	22	27%
19	Victor Robles	WSH	A	AA	6	23	26%
20	Myles Straw	CLE	A	AA	7	27	26%
	41 year old Rickey	SEA			31	121	26%
	38 year old Rickey	TOT			45	175	26%
21	Thairo Estrada	SF	B	AA	6	24	25%
22	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	A	A	4	16	25%
23	Conner Capel	OAK	C	A	4	16	25%
24	Amed Rosario	CLE	B	A	5	20	25%
	34 year old Rickey	TOT			53	214	25%
25	Wander Franco	TB	B	A	5	21	24%
26	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	A	A	5	21	24%
27	Bobby Witt	KC	A	A	5	22	23%
28	Travis Jankowski	TEX	A	A	4	18	22%
29	Jon Berti	MIA	A	A	4	18	22%
	38 year old Rickey	SDP			29	133	22%
	41 year old Rickey	TOT			36	166	22%
	40 year old Rickey	NYM			37	178	21%
	36 year old Rickey	OAK			32	153	21%
	34 year old Rickey	OAK			31	152	20%
30	Steven Kwan	CLE	C	A	7	37	19%
31	Whit Merrifield	TOR	A	A	4	22	18%
32	Daulton Varsho	TOR	B	A	4	22	18%
33	Christian Yelich	MIL	B	A	5	28	18%
	42 year old Rickey	SDP			25	139	18%
	37 year old Rickey	SDP			37	209	18%
34	Cody Bellinger	CHC	B	A	4	23	17%
	35 year old Rickey	OAK			22	130	17%
35	Gleyber Torres	NYY	C	A	5	31	16%
36	George Springer	TOR	B	A	4	25	16%
37	Jose Ramirez	CLE	A	A	4	27	15%
38	Trea Turner	PHI	A	A	4	29	14%
39	Kyle Tucker	HOU	A	A	5	36	14%
40	Ian Happ	CHC	C	A	4	29	14%

Grand Slam Taken Away, Then Added with New Adjustment - Old 1978 Charts

As you can see from the photo, we can fit the game in a small space.

UNBELIEVABLE. The new adjustment we made for 2023 results in all pitchers from hitters parks (like the Pirates) changing the highest homer on an opponents card to a SacFly all runners advance. Likewise those who pitch in a pitchers park (like the Padres) turn the lowest out on the opposing batter to a home run. The adjustment has only changed a couple of results all season until tonight when something happened that will not happen again if we play Statis-Pro for another 50 years.

In the first game of the home-and-home in Pittsburgh, the Padres Xander Bogaerts came up with bases loaded and drew a 33 - since his home run range is 28-33 that became a 1-run sac fly scoring only Fernando Tatis Jr. From 3rd base to make it 3-0 instead.of 6-0. The in the second game in San Diego, the toughest pitchers' park in the league, the Pirates Bryan Reynolds came up against Yu Darvish in the same situation, based loaded in the top of the 3rd. Darvish left it on his card, and a "57" was drawn and to my disbelief I looked and saw Reynolds' out range is 57-88 so as the lowest number in his range it became a grand slam homer. WOW.

Game 2 - The Pirates were outscored 6-23 in their first three games - their Statis-Pro cards looking more like the preseason predictions than their actual stunning strong start this season. However, in their 4th game and 2nd game of this series Reynolds' grandslam was the offensive key to a 7-0 win for a sweep. On defense, Roansy Contreras 6 scoreless innings was key against a Padres team that has stunned everyone by not hitting in real MLB and the same in Statis-Pro with a 12-12 record. 

However, the biggest key to this last game was Ke'Bryan Hayes, the Pirates 3rd baseman, whose CD-5 (highest Clutch Defense rating) made two diving catches to turn extra base hits into double plays that erased players on 2nd base in the third and 3rd base in the 6th for the win. If you click on Hayes link to Baseball Reference above, you will see Hayes calculates as the best defensive player last season with 3.0 defensive wins last season, and he is back on that pace this year at 0.7 already. He was also one of three finalist for the NL Gold Glove 3rd baseman, though voters gave it to St. Louis' Nolan Arenado for the 10th straight season. All that points to a Clutch Defense 5 (CD-5) in the game.

Back to Game 1 - Padres 10, Pirates 3 but no SWEEP

Without the adjustment the Padres would have had an extra out with a chance to extend the lead. Instead, the Pirates Bryan Reynolds homered in the bottom of the third, then in the 4th Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe double to start a rally that left the game tied 3-3 all the way through 8 innings.

The Padres exploded for a 7-run 9th to win the 1st game of the series in Pittsburgh 10-3, but that only counts as winning 2.of 3 games because a team only gets credit for a sweep if they led by 7 runs after 8 innings. The Padres improve to 12-9, percentage points ahead of a few teams for 3rd place - and behind only the Dodgers and Braves, heading into the second game against the Pirates back in San Diego.

David Bednar, the Pirates one dominant card in the game who has also allowed only 1 run in 11 innings to record 8 saves in the real season, did get the loss. However, he had to come in the 8th to get the Pirates out of a jam.to prevent any chance.of a 5-run lead after 8 for the Padres. 

Reminder Note: To play our own Statis-Pro Baseball games, click and print the batters cards here, then these pitchers' cards and finally the Statis-Pro rules which will have everything you need to play. Also note that we had one error in earlier notes - the adjustments listed at the bottom of some pitcher cards to the batters they face (changing a HR to Out or vice versa) must be used every time they pitch, not just in road games as previously listed. You may notice this season that our blogs are picked up by https://www.baseball-reference.com/ so when a player is mentioned you can link for their stats by clicking. The reference to our league rule in which we count each game as a 3-game series, which is only a sweep if the winning team led by more than 5 runs after 8 innings, is not necessary to the game - just a fun rule that makes it more likely better teams will win as many games as they would if you could play more games because run differential predicts future results, and teams have a 14% chance of winning by 5 runs and a 14% chance of sweeping a 3-game series.

Sweep Rule Keeps Even Blowouts Interesting - Pirates Closer Bednar Prevents Double Sweep vs. Brewers

In addition to being a better measure of the strength of each team in the small sample size of board games played, our 5+ "sweep" rule keeps almost all our games as even if a team leads by 4, 5, 6 or 7 runs they are within 2 runs of attaining or preventing a SWEEP. 

Despite the Brewers hammering the Pirates in the opener, that is the reason there is one Pirates hero in Statis-Pro Pirates David Bednar - who was able to come into the bottom of the 8th inning for a 1-2-3 inning to hold the loss to 6-2 and give the Pirates credit for one win in the "3-game series" after the Brewers did sweep the first game 7-1 to officially claim a 5 games to 1 series. The Brewers move into a virtual 3-way tie for 3rd place in the NL at 13-11, though technically percentage points behind the two other 3rd place teams at 10-8.

NL Statis-Pro Season	Wins	Losses	Percent	GB
Los Angeles Dodgers	13	5	0.722	0
Atlanta Braves	11	7	0.611	-2
Arizona Diamondbacks	10	8	0.556	-3
San Diego Padres	10	8	0.556	-3
Milwaukee Brewers	13	11	0.542	-3
New York Mets	9	9	0.500	-4
Chicago Cubs	8	10	0.444	-5
St. Louis Cardinals	8	10	0.444	-5
Philadelphia Phillies	7	11	0.389	-6
Cincinnati Reds	6	12	0.333	-7
Pittsburgh Pirates	1	5	0.167	-6

It was a tough choice for the 10th and final spot for our Statis-Pro NL season between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds. We went with the Reds, who have started 6-12, but with the Pirates surprising everyone in actual MLB play we added them but this first series was tough against the Brewers.

Christian Yelich went 4 of 8 with a homer in the leadoff spot for the Brewers, while the Brewers held the 2 through 4 Pirates hitters to a 0 for 22 series.

Brandon Woodruff, one of the top No. 2 starters as a dominant PB 2-8, actually took a shut out into the 9th inning before allowing a homer to Oneil Cruz to lead off the 9th and make the final 7-1. Woodruff left with a 8 inning, 3 hit, 1 walk, 9 strikeout item and then we were able to use the Brewers new card in a nice PB2-7 Elvis Peguero card calculated based on consecutive dominant seasons in Triple A ball.

Freddy Peralta was as dominant in the second game, though not for as long. he allowed only 1 hit and 3 walks in 5 innings, and the Brewers were on track for the first in the season double sweep and a 6 games to 0 win with a 6-0 lead. However, he allowed a walk and double to start the sixth, and his PB4-7 (average though his ratios are excellent to make him a bit better) was replaced because the Brewers bullpen did not have to be used in the first game and thus had 4 innings of overpowering PB 2-8 cards to try to hold the lead.

Aaron Ashby (will actually miss most of the season with a shoulder injury, but we are playing this as a "what if" league), who can pitch two innings. Ashby got out of that 6th inning, but struggled in the 7th by giving up a run and loading the bases. Matt Bush came in and induced a fly out to end that inning with the score 6-2 and then pitched a scoreless 8th to keep the Brewers just one run from another sweep. At that point closer Devin Williams had not been used, and if the closer is not used until the 9th then a 5+ lead after 8 innings qualifies for the sweep credit - meaning the Brewers only needed one run in the bottom of the 8th.

However, the Pirates Bednar card is excellent, and he came in for a 1-2-3 8th. not only is he a strong PB 2-8 with hits only up to 22, but because those projections are based on a hitters park PNC park he also turns the top home run number for any opposing batter into an out.

With both the Reds and Pirates Statis-Pro cards for projected 2023 performances looking weaker then the other nine teams, at this point we have the option of keeping both teams in an 11-league team OR we could play one more Reds series already on our schedule against St. Louis, and have the Pirates complete their remaining schedule on that grid plus play the Cubs and stop there. We need to keep the scheduling fair, so that would let the other nine teams all play each other in a 2-game series, and then each of those nine would have played EITHER the Pirates or Reds for one easier series.

We will see if the Pirates keep up their much improved play in the real season - but at this point it appears the Reds would be the team to be relegated with the Rockies, Giants, Nationals and Marlins.

Reminder Note: To play our own Statis-Pro Baseball games, click and print the batters cards here, then these pitchers' cards and finally the Statis-Pro rules which will have everything you need to play. Also note that we had one error in earlier notes - the adjustments listed at the bottom of some pitcher cards to the batters they face (changing a HR to Out or vice versa) must be used every time they pitch, not just in road games as previously listed. You may notice this season that our blogs are picked up by https://www.baseball-reference.com/ so when a player is mentioned you can link for their stats by clicking. The reference to our league rule in which we count each game as a 3-game series, which is only a sweep if the winning team led by more than 5 runs after 8 innings, is not necessary to the game - just a fun rule that makes it more likely better teams will win as many games as they would if you could play more games because run differential predicts future results, and teams have a 14% chance of winning by 5 runs and a 14% chance of sweeping a 3-game series.