Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Duquesne's Grant shuts down Kidd's Cal 1993 team to pull 2024 teams within 1 game

The series between teams that were added from the 2024 tournament and teams added because they had one of the top 75 players of all time continues.

The latest game featured Jason Kidd, who will be coaching the Mavs in Game 3 of the playoffs Friday, and his Cal team - that will be joining the ACC next season of all conferences - against the Duquesne team that stunned Brigham Young in the open round of March Madness for their ninth straight win before falling to Illinois.

The Duquesne 2024 team showed they were for real with a pretty dominant 75-65 win behind 21 points from Dae Dae Grant to give the 2024 teams a 2-3 mark and chance to tie the series if they win the last two matchups.

Duquesne moved up from #225 to #200 in our rankings, while Cal dropped from #153 to #209.

We just took a picture of the simple scoresheet, noting the game took 34 minutes.to play. Lamond Murray (12 points) was the only Cal player in double digits.

 
2024 Win?  2024 Team      Favored? Player(s)              OpponentYr       Top 75 All-time player
Win 74-53Purdue24Zach EdeyNYU1948Dolph Schayes #61
TBDNC State11D.J. BurnsWeber St.2010Damian Lillard #68
Loss 67-73Utah St.8Great OsoborMassachusetts1971Julius Erving #19
TBDGrand Canyon4Tyon Grant-FosterGonzaga1981John Stockton #25
Lost 81-82Colorado St.1Isaiah StevensArizona St.2009James Harden #33
Win 75-65Duquesne-9Jimmy ClarkCalifornia1993Jason Kidd #36
TBDYale-9Danny WolfOregon St.1990Gary Payton #48
Lost 72-75Oakland-14Jack GohlkeLouisville1968Wes Unseld #60
1 win 3 lost2024 total    

If NC State, Grand Canyon and Yale can win the final three games, then the 2024 teams would win the series against the great players 5 games to 3, or if 2 of the three win the series would be split. Yale is a 9-point underdog against Oregon State and Gary Payton, which so far in the history of the game has only meant a 19% chance of winning - but Duquesne was also a 9-point underdog against Cal.


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Here are the two teams in our current rankings, with notes for any team with one of the greatest players ever - such as Louisiana Tech's Karl Malone as the #16 greatest player of all time. In their 2024 conference ratings on that link Duquesne improved from 14th to 11th among A10 schools and Cal dropped from 28th to 40th among schools in their new ACC conference.

Rnk  Pre Team                 Year  Player(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRatingConf
200225Duquesne2024Jimmy Clark1075.065.0-6.0-10.2A10
201204Louisiana Tech1985Karl Malone #161176.586.0-2.5-9.8CUSA
202180Princeton1965Bill Bradley0162.079.0-1.0-9.8Mid-maj
20383Wake Forest2005Chris Paul #300364.385.34.0-10ACC
204181Northwestern2017Vic Law0170.085.0-5.0-10.3B10
205215Stephen f austin2016Thomas Walkup0194.095.03-10.3Mid-maj
206142New Mexico1974Bernard Hardin0168.095.0-3-10.5P12/MWC
207216VCU2011Bradford Burgess0360.371.33.3-11.3A10
208165Creighton2020Ty-Shon Alexander0172.0106.05.0-11.8BE
209168California1993Jason Kidd #360165.075.0-15-11.5ACC
210222LSU1970Pete Maravich #730166.067.02.0-11.8SEC
211217Grand Canyon2024Tyon Grant-Foster00   -12Mid-maj

We flagged the Missouri Valley Conference's five teams in our all-time great conferences - breaking them out of the "Mid-Major" list of teams from conferences with fewer than five all-time great teams in the Value Add Basketball Game. 

We ranked the 11 great conferences based on the overall rating of each conferences top five teams and the total number of great teams from the conference (41 from the ACC,  and 36 from the new Big Ten with key Pac-12 teams added). The following is how we rank the conferences based on their 2024-25 members but their all-time performance. Here is the list of all teams and results in our game.

Rnk   Conference       top 5 Rating   Great Teams
1B1010.2836
2ACC9.4441
3B129.9629
4BE8.6229
5SEC6.4231
6A10-2.4615
7P12/MWC-2.2212
8WCC2.687
9Amer-0.66
10CUSA-1.166
11MVC-8.385
 Mid-maj-2.9817

The following are the top 5 teams from each conference in our all-time rankings, grouped by the conference in which the team will be for the 2024-25 season. The number to their left is where they rank in our all-time rankings in the Value Add Basketball Game.
 
RnkAtlantic 10  YearPlayer(s)                             WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
79Loyola-Chicago1963Jerry Harkness016268.0-2.00.3
96Massachusetts1996Marcus Camby317877.3-5.3-1
126Davidson2008Stephen Curry #15146670.24.4-3.8
128Dayton2020Obi Toppin118280.5-4.0-3.8
130St. Bonaventure1970Bob Lanier016474-6.0-4
RnkAtlantic Coast Conference (ACC)YearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
5Duke2001Shane Battier317872.53.511.1
8North Carolina1982Michael Jordan #1, James Worthy #59516965.06.210.8
9North Carolina2005Sean May327264.43.810.4
17Virginia2019Kyle Guy417365.44.07.9
21Louisville2013Russ Smith217466.31.37
RnkAmerican AthleticYearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
46Memphis2008Derrick Rose426965.80.23
49Charlotte1977Cedric "Cornbread" Maxwell118571.5-0.52.8
76Tulsa2000David Shelton217570.7-4.30.5
115Temple1958Guy Rodgers116668.5-4.5-2.8
164Wichita St.2013Fred VanVleet126471.31.0-6.5
RnkBig TenYearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
1UCLA1972Bill Walton #64607262.02.816.2
3Ohio St.1960Jerry Lucas #72, John Havlicek #29218476.35.011.8
4Indiana1976Scott May317159.8-0.811.3
27Michigan St.1979Magic Johnson #5217062.7-1.06.3
32Michigan1965Cazzie Russell218679-0.35.8
RnkBig 12YearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
2Kansas1997Paul Pierce #50507762.4-1.012.8
6Houston1968Elvin Hayes #41317363.84.311.1
10Kansas2008Mario Chalmers517556.0-0.710.3
13Baylor2021Jared Butler228678.56.08.6
20Cincinnati1960Oscar Robertson #1212727810.77
RnkBig EastYearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
7Connecticut2023Adama Sanogo207958.0-11.011
11Villanova2018Mikal Bridges72797019.4
14Connecticut1996Ray Allen #52109068-9.08.5
16Connecticut2004Ben Gordon527566.00.67.9
28DePaul1980Mark Aguirre3176.868.85.36.3
RnkConference USAYearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
24Western Kentucky1966Clem Haskins408069.3-0.36.7
41New Mexico St.1970Jimmy Collins217967.7-3.04.2
51UTEP (Texas Western)1966Bobby Joe Hill216466.08.72.7
199UTEP1970Tiny Archibald #67117370.5-2.0-9.6
202Louisiana Tech1985Karl Malone #16117786.0-2.5-9.8
RnkMid-Major (Other Conf)YearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
62Jacksonville1970Artis Gilmore117875.0-2.01.6
98Holy Cross1950Bob Cousy #39118889.5-0.5-1.4
113Seattle1958Elgin Baylor #230162640.0-2.8
147Buffalo2019CJ Massinburg018284-2.0-5.5
166Navy1986David Robinson #20016177.010.0-6.8
RnkMissouri ValleyYearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
103Indiana St.1979Larry Bird #7128081-4.0-1.7
110Drake1969Willie McCarter117574.5-3.0-2.4
200Bradley1954Bob Carney016072.00.0-9.8
216Murray St.2019Ja Morant017885-3.0-13
227Southern Illinois1967Walt Frazier #45017375.0-7.0-15
RnkPac 12/Mountain WestYearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
43UNLV1991Larry Johnson127376.32.33.8
109Oregon St.1982A.C. Green117273.0-7.0-2.2
117San Diego St.2011Kawhi Leonard #34226971.8-0.3-2.9
127UNLV1987Armen Gilliam016482.0-3.0-3.8
155Oregon St.1990Gary Payton #4800   -6
RnkSouthern Conference (SEC)YearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
12Kentucky1996Antoine Walker217269.32.79.2
18Kentucky2012Anthony Davis #53427265.7-3.57.7
22Auburn2019Chuma Okeke8171651.96.9
26Arkansas1994Corliss Williamson127570.34.76.3
58Oklahoma1985Wayman Tisdale317573.82.02
RnkWest Coast Conference (WCC)YearPlayer(s)WinLossScoreAllowSOSRating
15San Francisco1956Bill Russell #4317363.50.58.1
19Gonzaga2017Nigel Williams-Goss337063.02.77.1
50Loyola Marymount1990Bo Kimble12112.3108.33.02.7
75Gonzaga2023Drew Timme108674-7.00.5
144St. Mary's2023Logan Johnson118384.0-5.5-5

Unseld's Louisville Hits Buzzer Beater to Withstand Oakland's 3-point barrage, 75-72

After trailing Wes Unseld's 1968 team 68-58 with fewer than five minutes to play, Oakland 2024's Jack Gohlke and Blake Lampman hit four of five 3-point shots and Lampman added a 2-point shot with 16 second left to tie the game 72-72. However, Butch Beard then hit a buzzer beater 3-pointer - only the second Louisville 3-pointer of the game, pull out a third narrow win for a new team added due to having one of the greatest players of all time over a 2024 team added because their school did not yet have a team but this year they won an NCAA game.

More important, this was the first game in which we used the new dunk rule. It did come into effect on one play, when Lampman drew a "missed 3-pointer" but a 52 dice roll to fall within his dunk range. Under the new rule in this combination of rolls, the player gets a look at an open 3-pointer instead of simply laying the ball in for 2-points. Lampkin's 3-point made range of 1-5 was increased to 1-10, and the roll of "6" on the 20-sided die gave him a 3-point made shot.

Louisville was a 14-point favorite, and dropped from 154th place (-8.0 rating) to 180th place (-6.0) all time with the closer than expected game. Oakland improved from 233rd place (-20.0) to 231st place (-18.0) by almost repeating their real season stunner over Kentucky with an upset of Louisville in this game. A key was holding all-time great Unseld, one of the greatest rebounders of all time at 1-11 in both offensive and defensive rebounds - to only eight rebounds to not let him take over the game.

Advanced Jack Gohlke "Dunk Range" Rule updated in the Value Add Basketball Game

On April 23, 2024, we made an adjustment to the Value Add Basketball Game regarding the result if a roll of 51-66 falls within a players dunk range (or stop range). We call this the Jack Gohlke Rule. You can still use the basic rule, which is that the offense has the option of changing the result of a 20-sided die roll to a "2-point basket made" if the 11-66 dice result in a "Dunk." However, or the more accurate results, follow these instructions for a roll in the dunk range:

In most cases the player has a "Dunk Range" of 51 or higher, which is adjusted by the defenders "Adj" + or minus. So a 51-53 range, and a -1 on the defenders card would be a 51-52 dunk range for the game. If the roll is within the range use this chart to convert the result of the 20-sided die roll:

Result on 20-sided die                             If two 6-sided die falls in players dunk range (adjusted by defenders + or -)      
3-point shot maderemains 3-point shot made
2-point shot maderemains 2-point shot made
FTx2 - fouled and 2 free throwsStill fouled, but 2-point basket good and 1 free throw
Missed 3-pointerDOUBLE 3-point made range (e.g. 1-5 becomes 1-10) and roll 20-sided die again. Result is within doubled range then 3-point shot good, if outside range then 3-point shot missed.
Missed 2-pointer2-point shot made


If the result of the dunk range plus or minus the defenders "adj" is less than 50, then the player instead has a STOP range. This can be found in red on the chart in the instructions, but for every number below 50 a STOP range is created above 50. So a 51-47 and a -1 on defense adds up to a 51-46 dunk range. Since 46 is 4 less than 50, a STOP range of 51-54 is created - but you can look this up on the dunk chart in the instructions rather than try to do the math. If the roll is within a player's stop range, then one of the following two things happens:
 
If STOP Range instead of DUNK RangeIf two 6-sided die falls in players STOP range, which means result of dunk range adjusted by + or - defense is less than 50.
If PG or SG (2 players furthest LEFT on sheet in game)Ignore 20-sided die - result is TURNOVER
If SF, PF or C (other 3 players in game)Ignore 20-sided die - result is missed shot and defender guarding players gets rebound.




Tuesday, April 23, 2024

'Gohlke' Rule Introduced for 3-pt shots as He Faces Inside Bruiser Unseld and Louisville.

Our next match-up features an ultimate inside power player in Wes Unseld (Louisville 1968) against the ultimate outside bomber in Jack Gohlke. At 6'7, 245 pounds Unseld would be NBA MVP his rookie season and go onto lead the league in rebounding - after which he would throw incredible outlet passes to set up baskets at the other end and take the Bullets to four NBA Finals.

Gohlke was the opposite, playing far from the baskets to drain 3-pointers from downtown including his stunning 10 three-pointer performance to upset Kentucky in the NCAA tournament. Of the 141 baskets Gohlke hit that season, 137 were three pointers to only four 2-point shots, compared to Unseld who didn't have a 3-point line until the last two years of his NBA career at which time only three of his 552 baskets made were from behind the 3-point line.

3-pt made            Team                                  Total baskets   3-pt Made       % of baskets 3-pts
Jack GohlkeOakland 202414113797.2%
Wes UnseldLville 1968 (NBA Stats)55230.5%

Gohlke's ratio was so high that we invited the "Gohlke Rule" for Value Add Basketball. In the game between the two, Oakland's "dunk range" will be 51-56. Until now, this means the player can choose between a 2-point basket or the result of the 20-sided die. Therefore anytime the player would have missed a 2-point or 3-point shot, they instead score 2-points.

This works well unless the player is one who rarely hits 2-pointers, since that would distort the ratio and have players like Gohlke hitting a good number of 2-pointers. To fix this we have changed the rule to the following:

Advanced Jack Gohlke "Dunk Range" Rule in the Value Add Basketball Game

On April 23, 2024, we made an adjustment to the Value Add Basketball Game regarding the result if a roll of 51-66 falls within a players dunk range (or stop range). We call this the Jack Gohlke Rule. You can still use the basic rule, which is that the offense has the option of changing the result of a 20-sided die roll to a "2-point basket made" if the 11-66 dice result in a "Dunk." However, or the more accurate results, follow these instructions for a roll in the dunk range:

In most cases the player has a "Dunk Range" of 51 or higher, which is adjusted by the defenders "Adj" + or minus. So a 51-53 range, and a -1 on the defenders card would be a 51-52 dunk range for the game. If the roll is within the range use this chart to convert the result of the 20-sided die roll:

Result on 20-sided die                             If two 6-sided die falls in players dunk range (adjusted by defenders + or -)      
3-point shot maderemains 3-point shot made
2-point shot maderemains 2-point shot made
FTx2 - fouled and 2 free throwsStill fouled, but 2-point basket good and 1 free throw
Missed 3-pointerDOUBLE 3-point made range (e.g. 1-5 becomes 1-10) and roll 20-sided die again. Result is within doubled range then 3-point shot good, if outside range then 3-point shot missed.
Missed 2-pointer2-point shot made


If the result of the dunk range plus or minus the defenders "adj" is less than 50, then the player instead has a STOP range. This can be found in red on the chart in the instructions, but for every number below 50 a STOP range is created above 50. So a 51-47 and a -1 on defense adds up to a 51-46 dunk range. Since 46 is 4 less than 50, a STOP range of 51-54 is created - but you can look this up on the dunk chart in the instructions rather than try to do the math. If the roll is within a player's stop range, then one of the following two things happens:
 
If STOP Range instead of DUNK RangeIf two 6-sided die falls in players STOP range, which means result of dunk range adjusted by + or - defense is less than 50.
If PG or SG (2 players furthest LEFT on sheet in game)Ignore 20-sided die - result is TURNOVER
If SF, PF or C (other 3 players in game)Ignore 20-sided die - result is missed shot and defender guarding players gets rebound.









Toussaint Scores 16 for UVa in Replay - but UConn 1995 Still Too Strong

In the game we needed to replay because we accidentally left Dominique Toussaint's card out of the UVa 2018 team, the teams leading scorer scored their first two basket while getting an early steal, and finished with a team-high 16 points. He helped UVa keep the game within 30-26 early in the second half.

However, the 35-0 UConn 1995 women's team that started it all with the first men's or women's national basketball title, was way too much in the second half. That championship was the first of 17 UConn basketball championships in the last 30 years (11 women's and seven men's).

It was a match-up of the two shooting guards, Toussiant and UConn's Nykesha Sales who had a game high 19 points, three 3-pointers and four steals in the 81-57 win. Despite the game staying close much longer than the game without Toussaint, in the end the domination was only one point less than the first match-up.

    
Pos        Virginia 2018                  Pts  3pt  2pt  FT  Att  Reb  Stl   Blk  Fl   Actual Stats
1-PGJ'Kyra Brown9025512015'11,9.5 Pts
2-SGDominique Toussaint16145632025'9, 11.4 Pts
3-SFAliyah Huland El8040031016'1, 10.1 Pts
4-PFJocelyn Willoughby8032271016'0, 9.6 Pts
5-CFelicia Aiyeotan6030080516'9, 7.4 Pts
PosVisitor BenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlActual Stats
1-PGBrianna Tinsley2010010015'7,4.1 Pts
2-SGKhyasia Caldwell2010010015'5,0.9 Pts
3-SFMone Jones2010010016'3, 0.5 Pts
4-PFLauren Moses2010020026'2, 7.2 Pts
5-CLisa Jablonowski2010010016'3, 2.3 Pts
 3 Turnovers571211213286512 
            
            
PosConnecticut 1995Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlActual Stats
1-PGJennifer Rizzotti80400210312.5 pts, 5'5
2-SGNykesha Sales193500141411.4 pts, 6'0
3-SFJamelle Elliott40200400110.9 pts, 6'0
4-PFRebecca Lobo913001215217.1 pts, 6'4
5-CKara Wolters160802702115.2 pts, 6'7
PosHome BenchPts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlActual Stats
1-PGPam Webber5110070014.6 pts, 5'6
2-SGKim Better8121231014.8 pts, 5'7
3-SFCarla Berube8040030018.5 pts, 6'0
4-PFKelley Hunt2010010012.2 pts, 6'2
5-CBrenda Marquis2010010012.6 pts, 6'3
 3 Turnovers8163114417816

Oops - Redo for UVa Women 2019 as we left Dominique Toussaint's card out

Well, that's embarrassing. We need to replay the game we just completed - 1995 UConn vs. 2018 Virginia, since we accidentally left the playing card for UVa's leading scorer Dominique Toussaint out of the game. See image of the updated team cards at the bottom of the blog. Jocelyn Willoughby was actually UVa's best player.

One reason we are trying to slowly get through and play each team in the Value Add Basketball Game at least once is to catch any mistakes in our player cards. We just hit a big one - as we realized only after playing 2018 Virginia against 1995 UConn that as hard as it is for any team to have a chance against the great UConn teams- its even harder without your leading scorer. 

This is particularly harmful in this case because the UVa 2018 women were 239th in scoring nationally even with Toussaint putting in her double figures. No, men's coach Tony Bennett was not also coaching the UVa women with his slow, methodical offense, it was Joanne Boyle wrapping up a solid coaching career that had nice teams at Richmond, Cal and finally Virginia. 

Her defensive mindset certainly carried over to another defense-first team on UVa's campus. The funny thing was this was the season that Bennett was coaching UVa to the national title, but the following Covid-year the UVa men were 239th in offense so the "Grounds" at UVa witnessed some of the lowest scoring wins in the nation between the men and women.

To say Boyle had been Duke's best player would be an understatement - her final year there she lead the team in scoring, rebounds, blocked shots and set the school record in steals that lasted for years. When we started trying to add the best team from more programs to our game we did not have many stats from the 20th century women's teams, and we settled on this as the best UVa women's team of the century. They certainly rank far below the great teams in the game from UConn, South Carolina and Tennessee, but this was a nice team that not only won a tournament upset as a 10-seed, but then played a great game against the all-time greatest UVa player Dawn Staley and South Carolina.

 As you can see from the box, both backcourt players put up 16 points on a combined seven 3-pointers to give a scare to South Carolina in what would be Boyle's last game coaching before changing her life focus to adopt a child

From this ESPN account: Up 30-25 at the half, South Carolina opened up a 12-point lead in the third period before the Cavaliers cut it to 46-40 with 10 minutes left. Virginia still trailed just 52-47 after Dominique Toussaint's driving bucket with 6:39 to play.

UVa vs SC 2018               MIN  FG     3PT    FT     REBASTSTLBLK   PTS
Lauren Moses232'-70-02'-422106
Jocelyn Willoughby351'-70-04'-470006
Dominique Toussaint345'-153'-81'-2441016
Aliyah Huland El242'-60-23'-431127
J'Kyra Brown315'-144'-92'-2210016
BENCHMIN 3PTFTREBASTSTLBLKPTS
Lisa Jablonowski181'-10-01'-210103
Mone Jones20'-00-00-000000
Felicia Aiyeotan192'-50-00-041022
Brianna Tinsley140'-00-10-011000
Totals20018-577'-2013-1831104456
          
          
 Q1Q2Q3Q4 Final   
10-seed Virginia12131516 56   
2-seed S. Carolina15151620 66  



Monday, April 22, 2024

REPLAY - GAME DOES NOT COUNT - UConn 1995 Overpowers UVa 2018, 78-53, to Move Into 6th Place All-time

WE HAD TO REPLAY THIS GAME AFTER Toussaint's card was left out of UVa's 2018 player cards. However, the result was virtually the same. Here is the result of the replayed game that counts - a 81-57 UConn win.

The 1995 UConn women started the game on a 24-7 run to make it 44-27, and the University of Virginia 2018 team never threatened in a 78-53 final. The 25-point margin was just enough to move the team past the 2016 UConn team for 6th place all-time in our game.
 
Rnk  Team                 year      WL      Score  Allow  Rate      Player(s)                                     
1Tennessee19984076.364.018.4Tamika Catchings, C Holdsclaw
2Connecticut20021075.046.015.5Sue Bird, Diana Taurasi
3Tennessee20071089.070.014.7Candace Parker
4Louisiana Tech19823176.067.512.4Pam Kelly
5South Carolina20241084.055.012.0Kamilla Cardoso
6Connecticut19951078.053.011.0Nykesha Sales, Rebecca Lobo
7Connecticut20161180.064.510.8Maya Moore
8Notre Dame20183176.372.89.9Arike Ogunbowales
9Connecticut20102173.373.39.3Breanna Stewart
10USC19832172.063.39.2Cheryl Miller

UConn's two big players, Rebecca Lobo (8 points, 13 rebounds) and Kara Wolters (game-high 18 points and 8 rebounds) fell just short of outrebounding the entire UVA team (23 total rebounds). 

The top 16 women's teams in our game have now all played at least one game.