Thursday, November 28, 2019

Alphabetical List of 96 Great Hoops Teams in VABG Game (UCLA 1972 Best Chance to Win at 17%)

Here is the alphabetical list of the 96 all-time great basketball teams included with instructions in the Value Add Basketball Game. In addition to the team, year and conference, we our bracket region in which we placed the team and the projection of the score and percent chance of winning their first game. From there you can click on the EastWest, Midwest and South to see that bracket and results as we play games.

Range of scoring margins so far:

Double Digit Wins (4, 25%): Syracuse>Princeton by 17, Duke>Navy by 16, Ohio St.>Wyoming by 13, Marquette > Utah by 10.

4 to 9 point win (3, 19%): Michigan St.>LaSalle by 9, Arizona > LSU by 8, UCLA > Indiana St. by 7.

Last possession - 1, 2 or 3 pt in regulation (5, 31%): Wake Forest>Pitt by 2, Oregon>Seattle by 2, Missouri>Cal by 2, Georgia>Oklahoma A&M by 2, Seton Hall>St. John's by 1.

Overtime (4, 25%): LSU>Alabama, Arizona>Iowa, Auburn>West Virginia, Notre Dame>St. Joe's.

Note that the best 32 teams receive a first found bye, and thus their "1st opponent" is the winner of another game. Click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for box scores of games as we add them. At the bottom of this blog click to print out player cards for any of these teams you want to use in games of your own.
SchoolYearConfRegionSeedPredictedAllowedWin%1st opponent/ actual result
Alabama1977SECSouth18676850%LSU L. 77-79 OT
Arizona1997Pac-10West9837479%LSU (won 85-77)
Arizona2015Pac-12West10676267%Iowa (W90-88, 2 OT)
Arkansas1994SEC South6696756%Auburn v George Mason winner
Auburn2019SECSouth11655967%George Mason
Auburn1984SECSouth19757744%West Virginia (W84-76 OT)
Butler2011HorizonEast24617021%Duke
California1959PCCWest21606436%Missouri L. 69-71
Cincinnati1960MVCWest4706567%Gonzaga v DePaul winner
Cincinnati2002CUSAMidwest9655779%Loyola-Chicago
Connecticut2004Big EastMidwest5656164%Georgetown v Kansas St. winner
Creighton2014Big EastMidwest20747640%Oklahoma
Davidson2008SCSouth21626733%Oklahoma St.
DePaul1945IndWest20616440%Gonzaga
Duke2011ACCEast9706179%Butler
Duke1992ACCEast10746773%Navy (W 77-61)
Florida2006SECSouth3787270%West Virginia v Auburn winner
George Mason2006CAASouth22596533%Auburn
Georgetown1984Big EastEast11676267%Villanova
Georgetown2007Big EastMidwest12666360%Kansas St.
Georgia1982SECSouth23667230%Oklahoma St
Georgia Tech2004ACCEast14727056%Wake Forest
Gonzaga2017WCCWest13646160%DePaul
Houston1968IndSouth4686270%Texas Tech v South Carolina winner
Illinois2005Big TenMidwest10655970%Wichita St.
Indiana1976Big TenMidwest1675585%Indiana v Oklahoma winner
Indiana2002Big TenMidwest16636253%Oklahoma
Indiana St.1979MVCWest18656647%UCLA (Lost 69-76)
Iowa2001Big TenWest23626733%Arizona (L88-90 2ot)
Kansas1957Big 7South5666264%Oklahoma St. v Davidson winner
Kansas2008Big 12South1726379%Texas v Tennessee winner
Kansas St.2008Big 12Midwest21636640%Georgetown
Kentucky2012SECSouth7706953%Oklahoma St v Georgia winner
Kentucky1996SEC East1696273%Wake Forest v Pittsburgh winner
La Salle1954IndMidwest19646644%Michigan St. L67-76
Louisville1980MetroSouth8696950%Memphis v VCU winner
Louisville2013Big EastWest3686270%Michigan v San Diego St. winner
Loyola1963IndWest5737060%Missouri v California winner
Loyola-Chicago2018MVCMidwest24576521%Cincinnati
LSU2006SECSouth15686750%Alabama W in OT
LSU1970SECWest24748321%Arizona (Lost 77-85)
Marquette2003CUSAEast13666360%West Virginia
Marquette1977IndWest11585367%Utah W.79-69
Maryland2002ACCEast6716860%Georgetown v Villanova winner
Memphis2008CUSASouth9716279%VCU
Michigan1989Big TenMidwest6686560%Ohio St. v Wyoming winner
Michigan2013Big TenWest14646256%San Diego St.
Michigan St.1979Big TenMidwest2676073%St. Joe's v Notre Dame winner
Michigan St.2009Big TenMidwest14666456%La Salle W by 9
Missouri1982Big 8West12646064%California W by 2
Navy1986CAAEast23677427%Duke (L 61-77)
North Carolina St.1974ACCEast2766973%St. John's v Seton Hall winner
Notre Dame1970IndMidwest18737447%St. Joe's W in OT
Ohio St.2007Big TenMidwest11726764%Wyoming (W 73-60)
Ohio State1960Big TenMidwest3757067%Michigan St. v La Salle winner
Oklahoma1985Big 8Midwest13767460%Creighton
Oklahoma2016Big 12Midwest17626347%Indiana
Oklahoma St1946MVCSouth10726670%Georgia L 80-82
Oklahoma St.2004Big 12South12676267%Davidson
Oregon2017Pac-12West17696950%Seattle W64-62
Pittsburgh2009Big EastEast17626247%Wake Forest (L 61-63)
Princeton1965IvyEast21646836%Syracuse L62-79
Purdue2018Big TenMidwest8656453%Cincinnati v Loyola-Chicago winner
Purdue1969Big TenMidwest4837964%Oklahoma v Creighton winner
San Diego St.2011MWCWest19626444%Michigan
San Francisco1956CBAWest7626153%Arizona v Iowa winner
Seattle1958IndWest16696950%Oregon L62-64
Seton Hall1989Big EastEast18666747%St. John's W by 1
South Carolina2017SECSouth20555840%Texas Tech
St. Joe's2004A10Midwest15747353%Notre Dame L in OT
St. John's1985Big EastEast15676653%Seton Hall L by 1
Syracuse2003Big EastWest8717150%Arizona v LSU winner
Syracuse1987Big EastEast12686464%Princeton W79-62
Tennessee1977SECSouth17727250%Texas
Texas2003Big 12South16727250%Tennessee
Texas Tech2019Big 12South13585560%South Carolina
UCLA1972Pac-8West1806691%Seattle v Oregon winner
UCLA2006Pac-12West15666553%Indiana St. (won 76=69)
Uconn1999Big EastEast8656356%Duke v Butler winner
UNC2005ACCEast7747160%Duke v Navy winner
UNC1982ACCSouth2675976%LSU v Alabama winner
UNLV1991Big WestWest2706373%UCLA v Indiana St. winner
Utah1998WAC West22535833%Marquette L by 10
UTEP (TX W)1966IndWest6585656%Marquette v Utah winner
VCU2011CAASouth24627121%Memphis
Villanova2018Big EastEast4726767%Marquette v West Virginia winner
Villanova1985Big EastEast22626733%Georgetown
Virginia2019ACCEast3625767%Georgia Tech v Wake Forest winner
Virginia1981ACCEast5716764%Syracuse v Princeton winner
Wake Forest1996ACCEast16626253%Pittsburgh (won 63-61)
Wake Forest2005ACCEast19707244%Georgia Tech
West Virginia2011Big EastEast20636640%Marquette
West Virginia1959SouthernSouth14777556%Auburn (L76-84 OT)
Wichita St.2013MVCMidwest23596530%Illinois
Wisconsin2015Big TenMidwest7636253%Illinois v Wichita St. winner
Wyoming1943MSACMidwest22677236%Ohio St. (L 60-73)


Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA tops the No. 1 Seed to set up a East vs. West All-Time Semifinal, perhaps against 2008 Kansas or David Thompson's 1974 North Carolina State. The other semifinal will feature the Midwest vs. South Champions, which could feature the last undefeated team in Bobby Knight's 1976 champions from Indiana or Magic Johnson's Michigan State team against the 2008 champions from Kansas or Michael Jordan's UNC champions.

UCLA's 1972 Value Add Basketball Game (VABG) player cards are the strongest of any team, but mathematically the Bruins chances of winning the tournament we are playing in the game is only 17%. Assuming all other seeds win they would be the favorite in all six games they played - the closest being a match-up with Indiana's 1976 team if the top two seeds win their first five - but the chance of winning all six in a row tallies only 17%.


UCLA 1972Win%Cumulative
Seattle 195891%91%
Syracuse 200382%75%
Cincy 196076%57%
UNLV 199173%41%
Kentucky 199670%29%
Indiana 197660%17%

PDFs of new and improved player cards appear below:

Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2002

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943



West Region All-Time March Madness: 17 Lead Changes in Kawhi vs. Michigan Wraps Up West 1st Round


Note that in the bracket we record overtime games as the regulation score plus 1 for the eventual winner. Arizona's 67-66 win above was a 66-66 tie in regulation that ended with a 90-88 win in two overtimes over Iowa. Oregon and San Diego State were upset winners, favorites won the other six games (6-2).

If you are counting conferences the Pac-12 (or Pac-10 or Pac-8) has 5 teams, 3 teams were independent, 2 from the Big East, and then one each from the Missouri Valley, Big West, West Coast, Moutain West, Big 8 and finally the undefeated San Francisco team with Bill Russell from the California Basketball Association.

Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of player cards appear below (we cleaned up the typos in years 12/5/2019):


Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010 updated 12/15/2019

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2001 updated 12/15/2019

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006 updated 12/15/2019 AND Loyola 1963 Team Corrected

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970 updated 12/16/2019

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018 updated 12/16/2019

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966 updated 12/16/2019

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943 updated 12/15/2019 (note includes UNC 1982, while "North Carolina" 2005 is in Marquette to Notre Dame link above)

Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.

SeedSouth RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
10Arizona2015Pac-128073.058.814.2
9Arizona1997Pac-1010-176.061.414.6
21California1959PCC3-567.358.29.1
4Cincinnati1960MVC8-278.561.117.4
20DePaul1945Ind0-369.560.29.3
13Gonzaga2017WCC3-370.958.512.4
18Indiana St.1979MVC6174.764.310.4
23Iowa2001Big Ten9-169.961.38.6
3Louisville2013Big East11-273.756.317.4
5Loyola1963Ind11181.164.416.7
24LSU1970SEC81179.574.05.5
11Marquette1977Ind0-965.752.313.4
14Michigan2013Big Ten8-273.161.211.9
12Missouri1982Big 82-572.559.313.2
17Oregon2017Pac-125-469.758.711.0
19San Diego St.2011MWC3-468.058.19.9
7San Francisco1956CBA3-870.355.015.3
16Seattle1958Ind9377.166.111.0
8Syracuse2003Big East11076.961.915.0
15UCLA2006Pac-128-468.557.111.4
1UCLA1972Pac-811-781.356.125.2
2UNLV1991Big West7079.661.018.6
22Utah1998WAC (Mountain)0-568.159.48.7
6UTEP (Texas Western)1966Ind5-672.457.115.3


#9 Arizona (1997) 85, #24 LSU (1970) 77


9-seed Arizona 1997 avoided an upset by Pistol Pete Maravich and 24-seed LSU 1970 by a score of 85-77. Jason Terry and Mike Bibby harrassed LSU into 15 turnovers (to only 8 by Arizona) and Bibby's 32 points en route to the 85 points in the 66 possession game against the worst defense in the tournament.

Maravich countered with 28 points including one stretch of four trips down the court in which he was fouled on a 3-point shot and hit all 3 free throws, hit a 2-pointer and then his a 3-pointer to cut the Arizona lead to 49-48. The win advances Arizona to play Carmelo Anthony's 2003 Syracuse team, the 8-seed in the West Region with the winner potentially playing the top seed in the whole tournament - Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA team.


West Region
#24 LSU 1970PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played of the 44 at which position
Pete Maravich28520240 to 1 (1)
Jeff Tribbett9411444-41, 34-1 (2)
Danny Hester14611238 to 1 (3)
Bill Newton10610438 to 1 (4)
Al Sanders6600438 to 1 (5)
Tommy Hess2100144-41 (1), 40-38 (2)
Rich Hickman4100144-39 (3), 27 (2)
Bob Lang2100144-39 (4),36 (2)
John Carr2000144-39 (5), 35 (2)
LSU Totals77305220Turnovers = 15
#9 Arizona 1997PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played of the 44 at which position
Jason Terry17220339-1 (1)
Mike Bibby32230244-40, 38-1 (2)
Miles Simon10420544-39, 35-12 (3)
Michael Dickerson17500244-36, 32-1 (4)
Bennett Davison3611244-33, 24-1 (5)
A.J. Bramlett6501244-40 (1), 39 (2), 38-36, 11-1 (3), 35-33 (4), 32-25 (5)
Arizona Totals85248216Tunorvers = 8

#15 UCLA (2005) 76, #18 Indiana St. (1979) 69


Larry Bird dominated a stretch of 13 possessions after Ryan Hollis rejected him twice to give UCLA a 46-30 lead with 13:57 (23 possessions) to play. Bird's subsequent 30-17 Bird included a three-pointer to make it 54-45. As the best rebounder on the court he grabbed an offensive rebound on a missed free throw to keep a possession alive and make it 54-47. Finally on four straight possessions Bird made a 2-pointer to make it 59-52, 3-pointer to make it 61-55, another 2-pointer to make it 61-57, and finally kept a possession alive with two offensive rebounds and eventually hit a 3-pointer to make it 61-60.

On the next trip with 6:05 (10 possessions) to play he finally missed with a potential game-tying 3-pointer, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute dunked at the other end to make it 65-60, and the 1-point favorite UCLA held on a 76-69 win to advance an play #2 seed UNLV 1991.


#18 Indiana St. 1979PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Carl Nicks4230137 to 1
Bob Heaton6110237 to 1
Larry Bird30900337 to 1
Leroy Staley6511437 to 1
Alex Gilbert6612137 to 1
Steve Reed5110144 to 38
Rich Nemcek2100144 to 38
Scott Turner2100244 to 38
Brad Miley5200144 to 38
Tom Crowder3100144 to 38
69297317Turnovers: 15
#15 UCLA 2006PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Jordan Farmar14310136 to 1
Darren Collison9220221 to 1
Cedric Bozeman6600325 to 1
Arron Afflalo13310344 to 1
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute14711238 to 1
Michael Roll6110144 to 33 (2)
Ryan Hollins7411244 to 26 (3)
Alfred Aboya2100244 to 37 (1)
Lorenzo Mata3100232 to 26 (2)
Ryan Wright2200144 to 39 (5)
76307219Turnovers: 15




#10 Arizona (2015) 90, Iowa (2001) 88, 2 OT


In perhaps the most amazing sports board game I've ever played in any sport, #10 West seed Arizona (2015) almost become the biggest upset victim to date. The match-up was tougher than I meant for them to face opening round. When I did the 21st century teams I only had tempo free stats back to 2002 so I made the Iowa team from that year to get the great center Reggie Evans and guard Luke Decker.

However, after developing formulas to add all the 20th century teams and set up this tournament - I realized I could actually now produce the actual surprise Big Ten tournament 2001 champs from Iowa - a team driven by a third great player in Dean Oliver who made Decker and Evans better in 2001 even then they were in 2002 without him.

In short, I gave Arizona a 23 v 10 seed matchup in based which they would have been favored 68-61, and they ended up against better cards for Iowa 2001 that predicted  a closer 67-62 win.

Still, Arizona featured one if the top guard duos in value add history in TJ McConnell and Stanley Johnson.

However Recker drew fouls on McConnell until he had 4 fouls with 28 possessions still to play. The rest of the game he had to play avoiding fouls, which led to easier chances for Recker who had 30 by the end of regulation with Iowa leading 66-62 with only two possessions left.

Stanley Johnson then came up with a fast break transition steals (only a 1-36 roll of 11, 13, 15 with a great steals player like him). He went down and scored and fast break transitions the last 5 possessions of a game - 66-64.

On the final possession, Glen Worley had a game-clincher, but Brandon Ashley rejected the shot. At the other end Kaleb Tarczewski missed the game thing shot, but Ashley rebounded that as well, was fouled, and hit both free throws to force overtime.

McConnell finally did foul out early in the OT and Iowa led 76-71 with 4 possessions left, but his sub Parker Jacksin-Cartwright hit a 3 to make it 78-76 and buckets the last two trips by Tarczewski left another tie at 80-80.

In the second OT it was 86-86 with two possessions left, when Evans missed a shot, got his own rebound, was fouled, but then missed bother free throws (he is only good on 1-12 onna 20-sided die as a 60% free throw shooter).

Hollis-Jefferson scored the last 2 trips and Ashley came up with another block to let Arizona escape 90-88 in 2 OT. The advance to play the first ever undefeated national champion in Bill Russell's 1956 San Francisco team.

#11 Marquette (1977) 79, #22 Utah (1998) 69


Using our new one-page scoresheet, we posted a full account of this game of former Rick Majerus teams on the Marquette-centric blog Cracked Sidewalks (click here).

#17 Oregon 64, #16 Seattle 62


Despite a double double from Elgin Baylor (17 points, 10 rebounds) the 1958 Seattle University lost a 62-53 lead in the final 3:45 as the Oregon Men's Basketball 2017 team used 2 steals and 3 three-pointers to win 64-62. The Ducks will now play the overall favorite 1972 UCLA Men's Basketball featuring Bill Walton in the 96 team all-time great tournament. Value Add Sports Sports Simulations and Replays. It was my first game using the updated score sheets that includes the rebound chart and which position gets other rebounds, and the game played in 35 minutes exactly.

#12 Missouri (1982) 71, #23 Cal (1959) 69


Missouri, which rose to No. 1 for part of the 1982 season before a disappointing tournament, dominated most of the game with the trio of guard Sundvold (17 points) and front line players Frazier (17 points, 10 rebounds) and Stipanovich (15, 10). A double point lead almost slipped away late behind Imhoff's 18, 17 outing including many offensive rebounds for Cal's poor shooting 1959 national champs. After Cal intentionally fouled and Mizzou missed both free throws, Grout hit a three-pointer with 1:15 to play to make it 69-69 for the first tie since 20-20. However, Bridges had a steal and fast break and Missouri pulled out the 71-69 win to advance and play the 1963 National Champions from Loyola-Chicago.

#13 Gonzaga (2017) 55, #20 DePaul (1945) 51


A full account of this defensive battle of giants is on this Facebook link with a video of how to start and set up a game. https://www.facebook.com/valueaddsports/videos/998163883904298/

#19 San Diego State (2011) 70, #14 Michigan (2013) 68

Our showdown between Kawhi Leonard's San Diego State and the Michigan team of Glen Robinson III - so of the overall No. 1 NBA pick featured an all-time game high 17 lead changes in just the 45 possessions we played out after the 20-20 start of the game. The Value Add Basketball Game features at least 44 possessions, but fast breaks off of steals in the last nine possessions add an extra possession - as it did when Tapley stole to start a fast break for San Diego State on what would have been the last possession to create a 45th possession.

We updated the game rules to point out Kawhi is the perfect forward when positing players in the game because he is so dominant as both a rebounder and steals player. He and Robinson balanced each other off at the opposing power forward (4) spots with tough defense on each other and each drew four fouls on the other but neither fouled out.

Staukas twice hit 3-pointers including giving Michigan a 42-40 lead and the tying it 50-50, and twice was fouled shooting a three-pointer including taking the 60-59 lead from the line. The Wolverines actually trailed in rebounding until McGary game in with 21 possessions to play - and he dominated with 10 rebounds in those last 21 possessions to help Michigan win the rebounding battle 36-30.

While Kawhi Leonard led San Diego State with 13 points, the balanced attack was helped by a key block by Thomas and game-high four steals by Tapley that were key in the win. Thomas' block of McGary's shots with 3:07 (5 possessions left) kept the score at 64-63, Tapley hit a three-pointer to give San Diego State a 66-64 lead and then Kawhi rejected Robinson to keep the lead.

Tapley stole the ball on what would have been the 2nd to last possession with a 68-66 lead, but missed a fast break shot which left San Diego State with one possession left and Michigan with two. Robinson scored to tie it 68-68 and leave both teams with a final possession. Tapley got to the hoop and scored to make it 70-68, and then McGary's potential game-tying shot missed and Tapley grabbed the rebound to prevent a second chance at overtime and send San Diego State to play 2013 Louisville in the 2nd round. It was only the 2nd upset of eight West Region 1st Round Games.



San Diego StatePtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Gay8240144-1
Tapley12340127-1
White12310331-1
Leonard13401444-40, 36-1
Thomas101212139-1
Rabon4200144-28 (2)
Shelton2100144-42 (3)
Cheriet2101141-37 (3)
Franklin5100136-32 (3)
Carwell2100144-40 (5), 39-37 (4)
70301041513 turnovers
MichiganPtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Burke10430144-1
Hardaway12601444-1
Staukas21331139-1
Robinson11710444-1
McGary41002121-1
LaVert2100144-40 (3)
Morgan4200134-22 (5)
Horford2100139-35 (5)
Albrecht2200144-41 (5)
00000
6836741518 turnovers

This concludes the summaries of the West Region 1st Round Games.

South Region All-Time March Madness: Auburn & Texas Tech from 2019 Final 4 Close Out All-Time South 1st Round




If you are counting conference representatives, half of the second round teams are from the SEC (8), followed by the Big 12 (or Big 7) with 4, then one each from the ACC, Metro, Conference USA and one independent.

Note that on the bracket we record overtime scores as the score at the end of regulation plus one for the eventual winner. Auburn's 69-68 win over West Virginia reflects the 68-68 tie at the end of regulation, but Auburn won 84-76 in OT. LSU beat Alabama 79-77 in OT, but the 71-70 score recorded reflects the 70-70 at the end of regulation.

After the South Region started with two upsets with Charles Barkley and Dominique Wilkins leading cliff hanger wins, the favorites won five of the next six to close out the opening round in the South Region with a 5-3 edge.

Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of player cards appear below (we cleaned up the typos in years 12/5/2019):


Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010 updated 12/15/2019

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2001 updated 12/15/2019

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006 updated 12/15/2019 AND Loyola 1963 Team Corrected

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970 updated 12/16/2019

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018 updated 12/16/2019

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966 updated 12/16/2019

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943 updated 12/15/2019 (note includes UNC 1982, while "North Carolina" 2005 is in Marquette to Notre Dame link above)


Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.


SeedSouth RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
18Alabama1977SEC6073.963.210.7
6Arkansas1994SEC (West)7-276.560.915.6
19Auburn1984SEC3074.164.010.1
11Auburn2019SEC8-273.159.713.4
21Davidson2008SC7-170.061.98.1
3Florida2006SEC12-377.058.918.1
22George Mason2006CAA4066.658.68.0
23Georgia1982SEC2-170.762.97.8
4Houston1968Ind8-179.061.817.2
1Kansas2008Big 1210-275.456.119.3
5Kansas1957Big 78-673.857.116.7
7Kentucky2012SEC10-374.659.814.8
8Louisville1980Metro6-376.461.714.7
15LSU2006SEC10-271.560.411.1
9Memphis2008CUSA9-173.959.414.5
10Oklahoma St1946MVC5-176.262.214.0
12Oklahoma St.2004Big 127-272.359.213.1
20South Carolina2017SEC2-266.257.48.8
17Tennessee1977SEC4275.965.110.8
16Texas2003Big 1212074.163.210.9
13Texas Tech2019Big 124-467.255.611.6
2UNC1982ACC2-873.754.918.8
24VCU2011CAA6169.464.35.1
14West Virginia1959Southern13579.868.211.6

The first South Region All-Time March Madness game was the first to feature the new Value Add Basketball Game Player Cards - which are much easier to print out and have more of a vertical look than the previous cards. Below see a photo of the layout of the game at the end of the game.


#19 Auburn (1984) 84, #14 West Virginia (1959) 76 in Overtime


The first game with the new card layout turned out to be the most exciting game to date and the first upset of the tournament (though West Virginia wins by just one to two points on average in simulated games between the two).

Jerry West and his 1959 West Virginia dominated most of the game, leading until the final four possessions of regulation including a 52-38 lead in the second half. At that point Charles Barkley only had 6 points.

On the crucial play with 4 possessions.left for each team (less than 3 minutes), Chuck Person went to the hoop and drew the fifth foul on Jerry West, hitting both free throws to tie the score 63-63 with West out for the game after a 19 point, 7 rebound game. His backup Robert Clousson did score to regain the lead 65-65, but with only two trips left Barkley scored and drew a foul for the and-one old fashioned 3-point play to give Auburn their first lead at 66-65. However, West Virginia made it 67-65 leaving each team with one possession to go for each team.

Both teams committed fouls on their final defensive possession - with Auburn's Gerald White (a 65% free throw shooter who makes his shot on a roll of 1-13 on the 20-sided die) hitting both to give Auburn their second lead of the game at 68-67, and then West Virginia's Bob Smith (70%, 1-14 made) missing the first shot and then making the second one to send the game to overtime at 68-68. If he had missed the second, the team's could have battled for the rebound but the offense is less than half as likely to get an offensive rebound on a free throw as on a regular shot missed, making UVa's intentional miss last year all the more amazing).

Auburn dominated the overtime with West out of the game.


#19 Auburn 1984PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Gerald White10210229 to 1 (1)
Frank Ford6610544 to 30, 21 to 1 (2)
Greg Turner16701344 to 37, 28 to 1 (3)
Charles Barkley16601236 to 1 (4)
Chuck Person24731444 to 1 (5)
Paul Daniels10210344 to 30 (1), 29 to 22 (2)
Vern Strickland2210344 to 37 (4), 36-29 (3)
Terry Martin00002DNP
Mark Cahill00002DNP
Carey Holland00001DNP
84327327Turnovers: 11
#14 West Virginia 1959PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Marvin Bucky Bolyard12410437 to 1 (1)
James Ritchie8500237 to 1 (2)
Bob Smith11802537 to 1 (3)
Willie Akers8703237 to 1 (4)
Jerry West19711544 to 4 (5)
Paul Butch Goode3301144 to 38 (1)
Lee Patrone2000144 to 38 (2)
Joe Posch4000144 to 38 (3)
Robert Clousson10400144 to 38 (4), 3 to 1 (5)
Ronald Retton00000DNP
77382722Turnovers: 15

#23 Georgia (1982) 82, #10 Oklahoma A and M (1946) 80


The first big upset of the tournament came from an unbelievable start and finish from Dominique Wilkins' 6-point underdog 1982 Georgia team over the first dynasty - the 1946 repeat champions Oklahoma A and M.

With VABG games always starting 20-20, Georgia started with the games first ever five point possession, and set a game record by leading 32-20 after just 5 possessions. Gerald Crosby hit a three to start the game and was fouled. He then missed the free throw and Wilkins grabbed the rebound, was fouled himself, and hit both free throws to make it 25-20.

It was the beginning of one of those Wilkins' games. On the last possession leading 80-77 and knowing Oklahoma A and M still had one trip left to try a 3-pointer, Wilkins missed a shot, but grabbed his 14th and 15th rebound of the game before scoring his 32nd point of the game to clinch it 82-77.

Star Bob Kurland hit a 3 on the final trip to cap his incredible 22 point, 12 rebound game but it was too little.

Kurland was the 7-footer who once scored 58 points, was truly the one who kept blocking shots above the rim to force the new goaltending rule, was MVP of the final 4 for both national titles, and took three AAU national titles in addition to playing in the pros.

Now that they are past one 7-footer, Georgia gets another by advancing to play the 7-seed, Anthony Davis and the 2012 national champs from Kentucky.

#15 LSU (2006) 79, Alabama (1977) 77 in OT


Reggie King (25 points, 12 rebounds) helped the Crimson Tide led most of the game until Glen "Baby" Davis (almost identical 25 points, 10 rebounds) drew fouls on Ricky Brown to foul him out with 9:43 (16 possessions) left down 51-46.

Davis finished OT with an offensive rebound and score for a 77-75 lead on the next to last trip then a dunk to end the game 79-77.



#17 Tennessee (1977) 90, #16 Texas (2003) 79


Bernard King led torrid shooting by the 1977 Tennessee Vols as the first team to score 90 points in regulation. The games are based on 66 possessions though one fast break steal and score by Texas TJ Ford extended this game to 67 possessions, meaning the Vols averaged 1.34 points per trip (over time the average is about 1.00).

King scored the game-high 24 (just below his 1977 average of 25.8) and Ernie Grunfield scored 21 (just below his actual 1977 average of 22.8).

Ford and back court mate Brandon Mouton put up incredible efforts that would have beaten any but a hot shooting opponent, as each of them scored 19 and they committed only 9 turnovers the entire game. The Vols did block 7 shots however.

Tennessee will need to be hot again in their next game against a better defensive team in the 1-seed in the South - Kansas 2008 national championship.

#12 Oklahoma St. (2004) 72, #23 Davidson (2008) 58

As magical as Stephen Curry's 2008 run was to take 10-seed Davidson to the Elite 8, the teams over reliance on him created a tough match-up when he faced one of the best defensive guards in the game - Oklahoma State's Tony Allen. Curry averaged 25.9 points per game - more than twice any of his teammates, but Allen (who built a 14-year NBA career as a defensive specialist) harrassed Curry to become the first player in my tournament to register 6 steals in a game and held him to 15 points in a 72-58 win.

Davidson's best chance occurred with 11:31 (19 possessions to play) when Curry hit a 3-point shot while drawing the 4th foul from Allen to get Davidson to 46-43. However, he avoided fouling out the rest of the way. While a hot Davidson could beat anyone - they fell only two points short to eventual champion Kansas in the Elite 8 that year - they were ranked #23 even after the March Madness run, while Oklahoma State won the Big 12 regular season and tournament before falling two points short in the National semifinal and was ranked #4 after the tournament.

In the game, they now must face Wilt Chamberlain, who led another Big 8 champion to the title in 1957, only it was still the Big 7 then. Here is the box score and photo of the scorecard and the player cards for Curry, Allen and the Cowboys' John Lucas. I played the game in 31 minutes after watching Stephen Curry's combined 4,736 points with his brother Seth Curry fall to the second best combo from two brothers behind Marquette's Markus Howard, who scored 32 points, and his brother Jordan Howard.


Davidson 2008PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Jason Richards6220144-1 (1)
Stephen Curry15101244-1 (2)
Thomas Sander7610228-1 (3)
Max Gosselin2300225-1 (4)
Andrew Lovedale13902128-26, 21-1 (5)
Bryant Barr5100133-29 (5), 44-41 (3)
William Archambault4200140-29 (3)
Boris Meno2800144-26 (4), 25-22 (5)
Stephen Rossiter4300144-34 (5)
00000
5835331218 Turnovers
Oklahoma St. 2004PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
John Lucas12430344-1 (1)
Tony Allen20361441-1 (2)
Daniel Bobik11400239-1 (3)
Ivan McFarlin17601144-42, 35-1 (4)
Joey Graham4501329 (5)
Terrence Crawford2100144-40 (3)
Janavor Weatherspoon2300144-42 (2), 41-36 (4), 31-30 (5)
David Monds2110144-40 (5)
Jason Miller2200139-32 (5)
00000
7229103179 Turnovers





#9 Memphis (2008) 77, #24 VCU (2011) 72

Memphis was on the verge of winning the most lopsided blowout of the tournament so far with a 71-54 lead, but VCU finally turned up the pressure for a furious run in which Bradford Burgess' 4-point play capped an 18-4 run to pull the Rams within 75-72. Unlike the 2008 National Championship, Memphis hit two free throws to lock it up. It turned out to be a great game for a complete wrap up post of it's own and examples of how to set up a game, and how a game can be extended with fast break steals and going for a steal or foul.

#11 Auburn (2019) 64, #22 George Mason (2006) 52


The miracle GMU Final Four team was blitzed early by last year's Auburn Final 4 team for 10 straight points to make it 30-20 and could never catch up. The player cards for this Auburn team are elite - they dominated when at full strength in the real season, finally getting Danjel Purifoy and Austin Wiley to dominate even UNC and Kentucky with a team that looked like it could compete with most of the best in history - only to have their best player Chuma Okeke and still only lose at the last second to UVa short-handed again.

Auburn advances to play #6 seed Arkansas 1994 with 40 minutes of hell. I've started to write the box score and some game highlights all on the score sheet so it is all together with the running score.



#13 Texas Tech (2019) 68, #20 South Carolina (2017) 59


South play wrapped up with a game to see who would face #4 Houston 1968 and Elvin Hayes (36.8 points per game and 18.9 rebounds per game). Summary on the score sheet below.



More to come

Midwest Region All-Time March Madness: Big Ten lands 11 of 16 spots including Indiana 1976 and 2002




Counting conference representatives in the second round the Big Ten has 11 of the 16 teams,  the Big 12 two, the Big East 1, Conference USA 1, and there will be 1 independent in Notre Dame.

Note that overtime scores in the bracket above reflect the score at the end of regulation plus one point for the winner. Notre Dame's 74-73 win over St. Joe's reflects a 73-73 tie at the end of regulation, which Notre Dame eventually won in OT 82-80.

That were two upsets in the first five Midwest games (favorites 3-2)
.
Here is the master list of all 96 teams and predictions. Click on the EastWest, Midwest and South bracket to follow the results in each, or click on the Value Add Basketball Game instructions to get the free game and play for yourself. Click here for the google sheet with player cards for all 96 teams. Click here for box scores to all tournament games.

PDFs of player cards appear below (we cleaned up the typos in years 12/5/2019):

Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010 updated 12/15/2019

Florida 2006 to Iowa 2001 updated 12/15/2019

Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006 updated 12/15/2019 AND Loyola 1963 Team Corrected

Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970 updated 12/16/2019

Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018 updated 12/16/2019

San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966 updated 12/16/2019

UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943 updated 12/15/2019 (note includes UNC 1982, while "North Carolina" 2005 is in Marquette to Notre Dame link above)

Table key: dunks = number of uncontested scores out of 36 rolls from 11-36, Stop Dunks = number added (bad) or subtracted (good) from opponents dunk range, Pred Off = average score resulting from team playing cards in 66 possession Value Add Basketball Games against all top 100 teams in history, Pred Def = average points cards would allow in the those games, Net = difference between those two which is used as the teams rating for seeding or knowing who is favored in a given game by how many points (difference between two net scores). E.g. Arizona's 14.2 indicates it would average defeating LSU (5.5) by 8.7 points if they played hundreds of times.  Click here for all box scores from tournament games.

SeedMidwest RegionYearConferenceDunksStop DunksPred OffPred DefNet
9Cincinnati2002CUSA9-571.957.814.1
5Connecticut2004Big East11-475.458.716.7
20Creighton2014Big East2-372.762.510.2
12Georgetown2007Big East3-669.556.812.7
10Illinois2005Big Ten6-372.258.513.7
16Indiana2002Big Ten6-468.256.811.4
1Indiana1976Big Ten6-976.754.222.5
21Kansas St.2008Big 1210-173.063.39.7
19La Salle1954Ind8-271.861.010.8
24Loyola-Chicago2018MVC0-265.860.35.5
6Michigan1989Big Ten3-476.760.616.1
14Michigan St.2009Big Ten10-371.659.112.5
2Michigan St.1979Big Ten4-773.855.218.6
18Notre Dame1970Ind12679.969.110.8
11Ohio St.2007Big Ten7-271.758.713.0
3Ohio State1960Big Ten13283.265.118.1
13Oklahoma1985Big 89580.868.112.7
17Oklahoma2016Big 128-172.261.310.9
4Purdue1969Big Ten15282.065.316.7
8Purdue2018Big Ten5-473.859.314.5
15St. Joe's2004A105172.260.112.1
23Wichita St.2013MVC5-167.759.87.9
7Wisconsin2015Big Ten1-671.756.814.9
22Wyoming1943MSAC8575.666.98.7

#11 Ohio State (2007) 73, #22 Wyoming  (1943)



Before taking two years off from his All-American career at Wyoming to fight as a Marine in the South Pacific, the 5-foot-10 Ken Sailors invented the jump shot to shoot over his 6-foot-4 brother and is described as a modern Markus Howard from Marquette - dribbling around and through players. The 1943 team he led to a 32-1 record despite needing to travel for 24 of those games (the NCAA election committee would have loved that), shocked Georgetown for the NCAA title and then shocked NIT champion St. John's in a game between the two champions.

We opened the All-Time Midwest March Madness with Sailor taking on the 2007 Ohio State team, and while Sailors two big men underneath - Jim Weir and Milo Komenich - kept it respectable with 19 rebounds, in the end the Buckeyes will too much and advanced to play their hated rival in the #6 seed Michigan that won the 1999 title. By the time Sailors hit his first jumper, Ohio State led 42-32.

Mike Connelly and Greg Oden took over with the inside-outside game during five possessions after Wyoming cut it to 44-39. Connelly's steal denied Wyoming a chance to get closer, Oden then scored after an offensive rebound, and Connelly scored and was fouled on his next trip, before Oden showed why he is one of the best shot blockers in history with a block, and Ivan Harris' dunk pushed it back to double digits at 57-46 and Wyoming never threatened again. Obviously decades of training made modern athletes much faster and stronger than players from eras past, based on the level of play at hte time Wyoming's player cards left them only a 4-point underdog to Ohio State on the game based on the table above.


#22 Wyoming 1943PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
James Collins7321237-1 (1)
Floyd Volker4512337-1 (2)
Ken Sailors11600137-1 (3)
Jim Weir201021237-1 (4)
Milo Komenich7901237-1 (5)
Donald Waite2100144-38 (1)
Earl Ray2100144-38 (2)
Jack Downey2101144-38 (3)
Jimmie Reese3100144-38 (4)
Lou Roney2200144-38 (5)
60395615
#11 Ohio State 2007PtsRebStlsBlksFoulsPossessions Played
Jamar Butler11350240 to 1 (1), 40-38 (2), 37 (3)
Mike Conley15320144-41, 37-1 (2)
Ron Lewis11301338, 36-1 (3)
Ivan Harris8301222-1 (4)
Greg Oden81013228-1 (5)
David Lighty2100144-41 (1), 40-38 (2)
Daequan Cook4300144-39 (3)
Othello Hunter8310344-24 (4)
Matt Terwilliger6500144-29 (5), 23 (4)
73349516

#18 Notre Dame (1970) 82, #15 St. Joe's 80 (OT)


Notre Dame's 1970 team trailed the whole game until Collis Jones drew a foul in the final seconds, hit the 1st free throw to cut Saint Joseph's University (2004) lead to 73-71, then missed the second only to have Austin Carr grab the rebound and score to tie it 73-73. The Irish won 82-80 in OT to advance to play Michigan State Spartans 1979 with Magic Johnson in the next round of my Midwest tournament.


#14 Michigan State (2009) 76, #19 La Salle (1954) 67



LaSalle's Tom Gola looked every bit the all-time college basketball rebound leader (2,201) as he led the game in rebounds (10), points (20) and was the first to block 6 shots in a Value Add game. However LaSalle's low field goal percentage doomed them to a 76-67 loss to Michigan State's 2009 team featuring The freshman Draymond Green.

Kalin Lucas scored 19 to lead the Spartans to a second round game against the 1960 Ohio State team.

#13  Oklahoma (1985) 70, #20 Creighton (2014) 55

On December 17, 2019 I looked at my brackets to pick the next game, when I realized I had a match up between the two teams on my TV. In real basketball Craig McDermott's 2019 Blue Jay's were taking care of Oklahoma 83-73 to give the Big East a 5 games to 2 edge in the Big East-Big 12 challenge.

Our great teams matchup featured Craig's son, th 2014 National Player of the Year Doug McDermott. Their opponent was 1985 Oklahoma and the late, great Wayman Tisdale in his junior year. The annual award for the best freshman of the year is still named after Tisdale for his 1st team All-american freshman season two years earlier.

Tisdale put up 21 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocked shots - all game highs to help the 1985 squad to a 70-55 win. The key to holding the scary good 3-point shooting Blue Jay's was Oklahoma's incredible pressure defense, racking up 9 steals to win the turnover battle 17 to 11.

McDermott scored 14 but the key may have been sharp shooting center Ethan Wragg hitting an early 3-pointer but then seeing what would have been a second straight 3-pointer rejected by Tisdale.

Oklahoma advances to face the 1969 Purdue squad.



#21 K-State (2008) 85, #12 Georgetown 79

One of the greatest players ever, Michael Beasley, turned in one of the best performances in the game to date with 24 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocked shots plus drew a 5th foul on Roy Hibbert. K-state now faces another giant Big East team in UConn 2004.


#16 Indiana (2002) 76, #17 Oklahoma (2016) 67

The first thing we know about the all-time round of 32 March Madness is that Indiana University will be represented. The 2002 Indiana team set a game record in steals (13) and forced turnovers (20) to contain Oklahoma 2016s Buddy Hield 76-66.

Through the luck of seeding, at least one Indiana team will now make the next round as well since the 16-seed 2002 Hoosiers now face the 1-seed in the Midwest Indiana 1976, the last undefeated national champs.



#10 Illinois (2005) 77, #23 Wichita State (2013) 55

Deron Williams led the Illini to the most lopsided win of the first round, 77-55, to set up a Big Ten 2nd round game vs the Wisconsin 2015 that in real life knocked off a Kentucky team some considered the best ever. Williams, Luther Head and Dee Brown each had multiple steals and out scored their counter part starters at the first three positions 49-16.


#9 Cincinnati (2002) 79, #24 Loyola (2018) 63