Showing posts with label Basketball brackets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Basketball brackets. Show all posts

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Team-by-team injuries, floors and ceilings for March Madness

Here is our first cheat sheet for the tournament. These are the last 80 teams still alive for a possible bid, either by winning a tournament title Saturday night or Sunday, or by being selected Sunday night. The most important thing of course is to know which teams have key injuries. We listed only strong contributors who are battling injuries. We linked to each of the players stats and listed their average points and rebounds per game.

The teams with the biggest variables between their floor and ceiling from 1st to 4th are Kansas (missing their top two stars in Hunter Dickinson (18.0, 10.8), and Kevin McCullar (18.3, 6.0), Marquette (missing All-American point guard Tyler Kolek (15.0, 4.6  and national high in assists at 7.6). Oregon N'Faly Dante (15.7, 8.8) and then Texas Tech Warren Washington 9.9, 7.4.

Kansas drops from 18th to 51st if neither star returns, while Marquette drops from 6th to 14th if Kolek doesn't return.

We note if a player is a STAR, and the word GONE before them means they will not return. All others could return.

Ceiling is where the team ranked from 1st to 80th if all injured players who might return do.

Floor is where the team ranked from 1st to 80th if none of the players who might return do.

Off is where the team ranks at www.kenpom.com in offense among these 80 teams (UConn is #1).

Def is where the team ranks at www.kenpom.com among these 80 teams on defense (Houston is #1).
 
Possible NCAA  Conf     Ceiling    Floor   Off    Def    Key Injuries / game left Sat night or Sunday, "if b" means must win for bid                                              
AkronMAC63626856 
AlabamaSEC1412363 
ArizonaP1255810 
AuburnSEC44104 
BaylorB121217643Langston Love 11.0, 2.9
Boise StateMW38354322 
BrownIvy75757674if b. Yale Sun
BYUB1216221133Aly Khalifa 5.9, 3.8
CharlestonCAA62614861 
ClemsonACC34312545 
ColgatePat66667557 
ColoradoP1226292428Julian Hammond 7.4, 2.5
Colorado StateMW33283527 
ConnecticutBE11112 
CreightonBE1191317 
DaytonA1035321952 
DrakeMVC46423151 
DukeACC1010719Caleb Foster 7.7, 2.4
DuquesneA1059586925if b. VCU Sun
FloridaSEC30251648 
Florida AtlanticAmer36411560Tre Carroll 4.0, 1.8
GonzagaWCC1513932 
GramblingSWAC78787975 
Grand CanyonWAC48455039if b. UTA SAT
HoustonB1223121J'Wan Roberts 9.6, 6.9, GONE - Joseph Tugler 3.8, 4.1
HowardMEAC79797479 
IllinoisB101311446 
Indiana StateMVC45402155 
Iowa StateB1298542 
James MadisonSun49474550 
KansasB121851539Hunter Dickinson STAR 18.0, 10.8, Kevin McCullar STAR 18.3, 6.0
KentuckySEC2018562 
Long Beach StateBW73736678 
LongwoodBSth71717169 
MarquetteBE6141715Tyler Kolek 15.0, 4.6, Nat'l #1 ast 7.6, STAR, GONE - Sean Jones 5.8, 1.5, 2.0
McNeese StateSlnd50484153 
Michigan StateB102119478Jeremy Fears Jr. 3.5, 1.9
Mississippi StateSEC23204914 
Montana StateBsky76767776 
Morehead StateOVC64636365 
N.C. StateACC51564254Dennis Parker, Jr. 4.7, 3.2
NebraskaB1025343021Eli Rice 4.2, 1.6
NevadaMW32433426Hunter McIntosh 5.9, 1.2,
New MexicoMW24213618 
North CarolinaACC87225 
NorthwesternB1044462847Matthew Nicholson 5.3, 4.3, GONE - Ty Berry 5.3, 4.3
OaklandHrz70706572 
OklahomaB1239534024Rivaldo Soares 9.4, 4.9, John Hugley 8.4, 3.8
OregonP1255594649N'Faly Dante STAR, 15.7, 8.8, Keeshawn Barthelemy 7.9, 2.2
PittsburghACC41372934 
PrincetonIvy52492767 
ProvidenceBE54526213GONE - Bryce Hopkins STAR 15.5, 8.6
PurdueB1032216 
SamfordSC58575564 
San Diego StateMW1715447 
Seton HallBE47445635 
South CarolinaSEC42383936 
South Dakota StateSum69696470 
South FloridaAmer57556042 
St. John'sBE28232037 
St. Mary's (CA)WCC22263811Harry Wessels 4.4, 3.6, GONE - Joshua Jefferson 102., 6.5
St. Peter'sMetroA72726771 
StetsonAsun77775880 
TCUB1231273723 
TempleAmer74747868if b. UAB Sun
TennesseeSEC76263 
TexasB1229241840 
Texas A&MSEC40363330 
Texas TechB1227302331Warren Washington  9.9, 7.4
UABAmer67675177if b. Temple Sun
UT ArlingtonWAC65656166if b. Grand Canyon SAT
Utah StateMW43393244 
VCUA1056545938 
VermontAE61647041Matt Veretto, STAR, 9.0, 3.3
VirginiaACC5350726 
WagnerNE80808073 
Washington StateP1237335220 
Western KentuckyCUSA68687359 
WisconsinB1019161429 
YaleIvy60605758If beat Brown Sun

Monday, March 13, 2023

Bracket VI - KenPom plus Point Guard Rating - Houston beats Marquette for Title

Note: click here for the bracket results for all 8 methods.

Point Guard is the key position on the court in the pressure or March Madness. They need to direct the team, and overcome the pressure, because no one else can try to score if the other team forces a turnover. We ranked all players but flagged the point guard on each team – and our calculation lined up with the vote for the five finalist to claim the Cousy Award for Top Point Guard to include:

Markquis Nowell (Kansas State), Tyler Kolek (Marquette). Boo Buie (Northwestern). Jalen Pickett  (Penn State) and the only player with more assists then Kolek though not in the tournament - Yuri Collins (St. Louis).

Kolek’s status added to Marquette’s KenPom was enough for a path to the title game, but even if they make it that far a loss to Houston is still projected.




Bracket IV - KenPom Plus Hottest Teams - UConn beats Alabama for Title

Note: click here for the bracket results for all 8 methods.

Here is the bracket based on the KenPom rating but with a heavier weight toward the rating the last weeks of the season to move the hottest teams going into the tournament head in close games.




The AdjM ranking at www.kenpom is his master calculation of how many points better than the average team any given team is. When calculating the hottest team, we estimate the AdjM just over the past several weeks as a team has trended more hot or cold. We rank Connecticut as the hottest team in basketball in February and March despite losing by two points to Marquette in the Big East title. 

Here is where all 68 rank, with a note on their kenpom rank in early February and then last week to show the movement.

HotttestTeamAdjM RecentFeb 1 rankingRank final week
1Connecticut3064
2Alabama2843
3Texas28109
4Houston2711
5Gonzaga271710
6Arizona271210
7UCLA2642
8Marquette25812
9Xavier242314
10Duke242824
11Purdue2356
12Kansas2398
13San Diego St.232815
14Texas A&M234219
15Kentucky233422
16Baylor221414
17West Virginia221916
18Utah St.224818
19Maryland212918
20Tennessee2015
21Michigan St.204129
22Memphis203633
23Arkansas192019
24Indiana192227
25Florida Atlantic193929
26VCU197867
27Saint Mary's1877
28Creighton181112
29Kansas St.182418
30USC184534
31Nevada185240
32Northwestern185442
33Auburn173026
34Iowa St.161820
35Iowa163335
36Drake168177
37Penn St.154047
38Iona158576
39Boise St.142528
40Mississippi St.145045
41Missouri144951
42Charleston147773
43TCU131524
44Miami FL133740
45Oral Roberts135767
46Illinois122332
47Kent St.127178
48N.C. State115347
49Arizona St.116562
50Louisiana1199111
51Vermont11136113
52Virginia91331
53Providence92845
54Furman99190
55Pittsburgh86866
56Grand Canyon8118112
57Texas A&M Corpus Chris8219173
58Texas A&M Corpus Chris8219178
59Kennesaw St.7142130
60Montana St.6111110
61Princeton6112116
62UNC Asheville6179149
63Northern Kentucky6208163
64UC Santa Barbara591109
65Colgate5115112
66Howard2237218
67Texas Southern-5306294
68Fairleigh Dickinson-14313315

Sunday, March 13, 2022

March Madness 8 - Final and Most Important, the Best Teams Being Put on the Court

While we've broken down seven factors that can give a team a chance for an upset in March Madness, we finish with by far the most important factor - who is the best team on the court in each game?

The best team doesn't always win, but they win two-thirds of the team.

If course the first place people should go as a starting point is www.kenpom.com, who revolutionized analytics. However, I do suggest people also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com for one reason - it breaks the ratings down to each player on a team so that you know how much an injured player will hurt them or who much better their rating would be with a player who has returned.

The following rankings for all teams who will (or in a few cases might) make the tournament are based on the following:

1. VA5 indicates the sum of the player rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com - which is similar to www.kenpom.com but represent more than a point (e.g. Gonzaga is a 51.97 here and a 32.97) mainly because our math indicates players on good teams would be even more valuable if the could play more.

2. Then the big difference is the "healthy" column. If that number is 0 then there is no adjustment because there have been no major injuries. However, if that number is a positive number then it is added to the first number because it indicates the team's ranking is actually higher when a player who misses some games is back. However, a negative number means the team is missing a key player or players so is actually not as good as their www.kenpom.com or raw www.valueaddkbasketball.com ranking would indicate.

The two really tough variables are from the Big Ten. Both Illinois and Ohio State have key players that might or might not be ready to play in the tournament, so look at the notes on them in particular and move them up or down several spots based on monitoring those key injuries at this site.

The following are the most important numbers if you only read one of these blogs.

RnkTeamVA 5Healthy?Team on CourtNotes on injuries, or players who were out
1Gonzaga51.97051.97 
2UCLA47.332.5149.84Despite their loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, the fact that Jaylen Clark, Cody Riley and Johnny Juzang all appear to be healthy pushes them to the No. 2 team on the court.
3Arizona46.94046.94 
4Texas Tech432.2245.22With Kevin McCullar and Terrence Shannon back, Texas Tech is loaded again.
5Houston46.18-1.344.88The drop of Houston assumes Marcus Sasser is not coming back.
6Kentucky44.56044.56 
7Kansas43.21043.21 
8Villanova42.99042.99 
9Duke42.91042.91 
10Tennessee43.51-1.3242.19As great as they have been, they are hurt by Olivier Nkamhoua being out.
11Purdue41.33041.33 
12Auburn40.95040.95 
13Iowa40.34040.34 
14Connecticut38.050.7638.81 
15Loyola Chicago37.650.9538.6 
16Baylor44.85-6.6938.16The defending champs are the most hurt, with both Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and LJ Cryer out.
17Saint Mary's38.01038.01 
18Illinois38.82-1.337.52if Jacob Grandison's shoulder is ok and he plays, this improves by 2.3, if not drop it by 2.3 - so one of two big question marks.
19Arkansas36.64036.64 
20San Francisco36.62036.62 
21Alabama36.49036.49 
22San Diego St.36.36036.36 
23Michigan35.84035.84 
24Texas37.31-1.6835.63This drop assumes Tre Mitchell does not return - if he does they go back up to a 37.31.
25LSU35.53035.53 
26Murray St.35.42035.42 
27North Carolina36.43-1.0335.4No word on Dawson Garcia, so assuming he is out for the season.
28Memphis32.861.8434.7As disappointing as Memphis has been with all that talent, if they win the American tomorrow with Jalen Duren and DeAndre Williams playing, they could be a scary first round game.
29Davidson32.550.9133.46 
30Oklahoma33.44033.44 
31Wisconsin33.29033.29 
32Virginia Tech33.29033.29 
33Boise St.33.05033.05 
34Wake Forest31.970.6732.64 
35Colorado St.32.47032.47 
36Michigan St.32.38032.38 
37TCU32.02032.02 
38Vermont30.890.7531.64 
39Iowa St.31.31031.31 
40Xavier31.22031.22 
41Marquette30.74030.74 
42Indiana30.69030.69 
43USC30.64030.64 
44BYU30.42030.42 
45Providence29.630.6730.3 
46Seton Hall32.18-2.329.88Bryce Aiken's concussion has kept him out for a while, one of the biggest injuries and they would shoot up several spots if he returned.
47SMU29.75029.75 
48UAB30.78-1.2129.57 
49Miami FL29.35029.35 
50Wyoming29.12029.12 
51Ohio St.33.15-4.129.05Key is if Kyle Young and Zed Key are back. If not -8.2 instead of -4.1, but if back take the -4.1 away. They would move all the way up to 33rd if both are back, but drop to 60th if not - so I split the difference here.
52Richmond28.82028.82 
53Creighton29.85-1.4328.42All know Ryan Nembhard's injury hurts, but if Trey Alexander keeps playing well in his place, the inside outside with Ryan Kalkbrenner - who now ranks on the verge of All-American as the 17th best player in the country - can still make them lethal.
54Chattanooga27.480.7528.23Gillespie's only competition for 1st team All-American PG is this Malachi Smith (there is another one at Dayton), and with Silvio De Sousa back they are stronger.
55Texas A&M28.17028.17 
56Notre Dame28.15028.15 
57South Dakota St.28028 
58Rutgers27.1027.1 
59New Mexico St.25.49025.49 
60Princeton24.08024.08 
61Long Beach St.22.46022.46 
62Georgia St.19.791.421.19They will be a big underdog, but with one of their two players in the top 10% of all players, Eliel Nsoseme, back they will be a stronger challenge.
63Montana St.20.54020.54 
64Saint Peter's20.26020.26 
65Colgate19.5019.5 
66Jacksonville St.18.73018.73 
67Norfolk St.18.5018.5 
68Bryant17.10.7217.82Bryant would have ranked higher if Hall Elisias didn't miss games, but he is back now.
69Longwood17.78017.78 
70Yale17.44017.44 
71Delaware17.32017.32 
72Cal St. Fullerton17.21017.21 
73Akron16.96016.96 
74Wright St.15.83015.83 
75Texas Southern10.97010.97 
76Southeastern Louisiana10.8010.8

Friday, March 11, 2022

March Madness 1: Teams with Most NBA Talent

The first of a series of pieces will will post this weekend to help you fill out your March Madness brackets regards how much future NBA talent a team can put on the court. Fans tend to overestimate how many of their players will be in the NBA. In fact, only about 40 of the 4,000+ players on the court this year will be playing in the NBA within a couple of years.

This weekend we will update www.valueaddbasketball.com with a column for the percent chance a player will make the NBA. Auburn's Jabari Smith has the highest rating at 99, meaning he has a 99% chance of making the NBA (due to injuries etc., we never give 100%).

To determine how many players from a team will make the NBA we add up the percentage for each of their players with at least a 20% chance of making the NBA. His teammate Walker Kessler has an 87% chance, Devan Cambridge at 63% chance and Allen Flanigan a 40% chance. Add the odds - 99% + 87% + 63% + 40% = 289% - meaning we would expect 2.89 current Auburn players to make the NBA.

That's the 9th most future NBA talent of either team, with Duke (4.74) edging out Kentucky (4.54), Gonzaga (4.36) and an underachieving Memphis (3.94) for the most talent on the court.

Here is the whole list of teams with at least one player with at least a 20% chance of making the League. You can look up which players on each team have a chance at www.valueaddbasketball.com.
 
Most NBATeamFuture NBA Players
1Duke4.74
2Kentucky4.54
3Gonzaga4.36
4Memphis3.94
5Baylor3.47
6Alabama3.31
7North Carolina3.15
8LSU3.00
9Auburn2.89
10Kansas2.88
11Arizona2.86
12Texas2.73
13UCLA2.66
14Tennessee2.57
15Florida St.2.43
16Purdue2.27
17Michigan2.25
18Villanova2.17
19Michigan St.2.03
20Oklahoma St.1.94
21Connecticut1.93
22Illinois1.74
23USC1.68
24Ohio St.1.62
25N.C. State1.61
26Mississippi St.1.60
27Iowa1.57
28Notre Dame1.54
29Iowa St.1.51
30Seton Hall1.40
31Texas Tech1.39
32Indiana1.36
33TCU1.36
34Arkansas1.34
35Dayton1.21
36Florida1.18
37Virginia Tech1.05
38Nebraska1.03
39Rutgers1.02
40Georgia Tech1.01
41Maryland1.00
42Oregon0.99
43Colorado0.98
44Xavier0.96
45Louisville0.95
46Wisconsin0.93
47Stanford0.88
48Fresno St.0.86
49Miami FL0.85
50Milwaukee0.85
51St. John's0.85
52St. Bonaventure0.81
53San Francisco0.80
54Marshall0.76
55San Diego St.0.73
56Wake Forest0.72
57Georgetown0.65
58Texas A&M0.65
59Houston0.64
60Saint Joseph's0.64
61Santa Clara0.63
62Mississippi0.61
63VCU0.61
64Western Kentucky0.61
65Colorado St.0.60
66Charlotte0.59
67West Virginia0.59
68Wichita St.0.58
69Syracuse0.54
70BYU0.49
71Detroit Mercy0.47
72Boise St.0.46
73Clemson0.44
74UC Santa Barbara0.42
75Vanderbilt0.41
76Oral Roberts0.39
77South Florida0.39
78Arizona St.0.38
79Buffalo0.38
80Marquette0.36
81Oregon St.0.36
82Washington St.0.35
83Liberty0.34
84Louisiana Tech0.34
85Northern Iowa0.33
86Toledo0.32
87Butler0.31
88Georgia0.29
89Cal Baptist0.28
90Lipscomb0.28
91Montana St.0.28
92Tennessee St.0.28
93Utah St.0.28
94Louisiana0.27
95SMU0.27
96South Carolina0.27
97Duquesne0.26
98Saint Peter's0.26
99Utah0.26
100Creighton0.25
101Hawaii0.25
102Richmond0.25
103Virginia0.24
104Saint Louis0.22
105San Jose St.0.22
106Nevada0.21
107Florida Gulf Coast0.20
108Providence0.20
109UCF0.20
110UTEP0.20

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Top 25 Value Add Basketball Players & Top 15 in Each Conference

The rankings for 4,000+ college Most Valuable Players in college basketball are updated at www.valueaddbasketball.com based on stats as of January 17, 2022. Value Add Basketball ranks players in a method similar to how www.kenpom.com ranks teams. The offensive rating (AdjO) minus the defensive rating (AdjD, negative is good because the player is taking points away from the other team) to calculated the overall "Value" of each player above a replacement player.




This blog links to three options to review the rankings:

1. The 25 most valuable players in the country are listed on the table below.
2. You can also go to www.valueaddbasketball.com to sort all 4000+ players by team, conference, class, etc.
3. The picture above is from this CBS 247 story on the updated rankings.
4. Finally, the links below the table take you to your choice of the 32 college basketball conferences for the notes specific to that conference and their top 15 players in the ratings.


RnkTop 25 All-AmericansTeamValueHtClAdjOAdjDGm/StConf
1Keegan Murray #15Iowa11.086'8"So8.97-2.1216, 16B10
2Justin Bean #34Utah St.10.586'7"Sr8.38-2.2016, 16MWC
3Oscar Tshiebwe #34Kentucky10.516'9"Jr6.86-3.6517, 17SEC
4Trayce Jackson-Davis #23Indiana10.126'9"So7.21-2.9116, 16B10
5Alex Barcello #13BYU10.126'2"Sr8.87-1.2517, 17WCC
6Collin Gillespie #2Villanova9.946'3"Sr8.30-1.6417, 17BE
7Kendric Davis #3SMU9.716'0Sr9.12-0.5917, 17Amer
8Armando Bacot #5North Carolina9.436'10"Jr6.85-2.5816, 16ACC
9Terrell Brown #23Washington9.306'3"Sr7.45-1.8415, 15P12
10Ochai Agbaji #30Kansas9.276'5"Sr8.33-0.9316, 16B12
11Tylor Perry #5North Texas9.225'11"Jr7.92-1.3013, 0CUSA
12Malachi Smith #13Chattanooga9.216'4"So8.62-0.6016, 16SC
13Posh Alexander #0St. John's9.216'0So5.36-3.8514, 13BE
14Orlando Robinson #10Fresno St.9.127'0Jr6.79-2.3415, 15MWC
15EJ Liddell #32Ohio St.8.936'7"Jr6.86-2.0715, 15B10
16Justin Moore #5Villanova8.566'4"Jr6.14-2.4217, 17BE
17Santiago Vescovi #25Tennessee8.526'3"Jr6.00-2.5116, 16SEC
18Jamaree Bouyea #1San Francisco8.436'2"Sr6.46-1.9717, 17WCC
19Christian Braun #2Kansas8.326'6"Jr6.20-2.1216, 16B12
20Iverson Molinar #1Mississippi St.8.296'3"Jr8.00-0.3016, 16SEC
21Tevin Brown #10Murray St.8.256'5"Jr6.33-1.9113, 13OVC
22Trent Frazier #1Illinois8.236'2"Sr4.61-3.6214, 13B10
23Alondes Williams #31Wake Forest8.216'5"Sr6.89-1.3218, 18ACC
24Tari Eason #13LSU8.086'8"So5.16-2.9216, 0SEC
25Hunter Dickinson #1Michigan7.957'1"So6.17-1.7813, 13B10


Below are the links to each conference review and top 15 players, with the Player of the Year listed.

Abbr, Conference, Player of Year so far, Team

AE, America East Conference, Ryan Davis #35, Vermont

Amer, American Athletic Conference, Kendric Davis #3, SMU

ASun, ASUN Conference, Darius McGhee #2, Liberty

A10, Atlantic 10 Conference, Michael Jones #13, Davidson

ACC, Atlantic Coast Conference, Armando Bacot #5, North Carolina

B12, Big 12 Conference, Ochai Agbaji #30, Kansas

BE, Big East Conference, Collin Gillespie #2, Villanova

BSky, Big Sky Conference, Dillon Jones #2, Weber St.

BSth, Big South Conference, Ricky Clemons #1, Campbell

B10, Big Ten Conference, Keegan Murray #15, Iowa

BW, Big West Conference, Collin Welp #40, UC Irvine

CAA, Colonial Athletic Association, Cam Holden #55, Towson

CUSA, Conference USA, Tylor Perry #5, North Texas

Horz, Horizon League, Jamal Cain #1, Oakland

Ivy, Ivy League, Kino Lilly #10, Brown

MAAC, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, George Papas #5, Monmouth

MAC, Mid American Conference, JT Shumate #32, Toledo

MEAC, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Kris Bankston #30, Norfolk St.

MVC, Missouri Valley Conference, Garrett Sturtz #3, Drake

MWC, Mountain West Conference, Justin Bean #34, Utah St.

NEC, Northeast Conference, Alex Morales #2, Wagner

OVC, Ohio Valley Conference, Tevin Brown #10, Murray St.

P12, Pac 12 Conference, Terrell Brown #23, Washington

Pat, Patriot League, Cam Spencer #12, Loyola MD

SEC, Southeastern Conference, Oscar Tshiebwe #34, Kentucky

SC, Southern Conference, Malachi Smith #13, Chattanooga

Slnd, Southland Conference, Isaac Mushila #10, Texas A&M CC

SWAC, Southwestern Athletic Conference, Jayveous McKinnis #11, Jackson St.

Sum, Summit League, Baylor Scheierman #3, South Dakota St.

SB, Sun Belt Conference, Javon Franklin #13, South Alabama

WCC, West Coast Conference, Alex Barcello #13, BYU

WAC, Western Athletic Conference, Jovan Blacksher #10, Grand Canyon

Note: I added the words "Most Valuable Player" above after initially posting this because our rankings measure how valuable a player is to a team while other votes may measure the "Player of the Year." In most cases I'd say the two are similar, but when writing the Big 12 summary below it occurred to me Baylor was a perfect example of when MVP and POY can be different. James Akinjo and Kendall Brown should be considered for Player of the Year in the rugged Big 12, but I don't believe either of the are in the running for Most Valuable Player because Baylor is so deep that if either of them could not play, Baylor still has seven players on the court that can dominate. I don't believe Kansas could contend nationally if Ochai Agbaji or Christian Braun were out - if those two were out and the two Baylor players above were out for the same game, I believe Baylor would beat Kansas handily..Baylor's incredible depth actually means each player is slightly less valuable because the replacement player stepping in for them is so good.