WKU Beats Calipari, Breaks Top 40

 John Calipari's 1996 UMass team barely survived their first round game of our 16 new teams, with an 80-78 win over Liberty 2023. Western Kentucky 1966 also barely survived, beating Buffalo 2004 by an 84-82 score.

The both won two more games to face off in our championship today, and despite two of his teammates fouling out, Clem Haskins (22 points, 10 rebounds, 5 steals) was just too much in a 74-67 win for the title of our 16-team tournament.  We ranked Western Kentucky 115th of our all-time great teams based on their cards, but they rose to 39th with the 4 wins, while UMass dropped from 53rd to 73rd.

1st Big Upset - W. Kentucky Claims Final 4 Spot - History of other Final 4s

Our 7-seed Western Kentucky scored the first big upset of our 16-team tournament, dominating the boards in a 78-62 win over 2-seed Oregon State. 

We noted Oregon State's one weakness seemed to be low rebounding numbers, but it was not that big a risk in their 81-68 win against James Madison 2024, which is also a weaker rebounding team. However, WKU was a fantastic rebounding team despite the whole team being 6'5 or 6'6 except for the 6'3 superstar Clem Haskins. They dominated the glass with a 40-24 rebounding edge.

Senior center Steve Cunningham's aggressive play took advantage of the soon-to-be great freshman AC Green. With the Hilltoppers leading 60-55 and 5:49 (10 possessions to play) Cunningham drew the 5th foul on Green and hit the basket for an "and-one," sinking the free throw to make it 63-55.

We did not play Green with "soft defense to avoid the foul" because he had two solid backups on Greg Wiltier and Rob Holbrook with stamina left, but Cunningham finished with a double-double (16 points and 10 rebounds) to go with Clem Haskins 21, 8 for the win.

Western Kentucky, which had barely survived Buffalo 2019 in their first game 84-82, will now face Tulsa and Bill Self in one Final 5 game. They will try to spoil a potential match-up of two of the greatest coaches of the 21st century and rematch of the John Calipari (Memphis) vs. Self (Kansas) 2008 championship with two other teams in the game. This one could be Tulsa vs. UMass 1996. However, new Mexico State 1970 will try to eliminate UMass in the other Final 4 game.

In our March 2020 Final 4 from the original 96 all-time great teams in the game, Bill Walton's UCLA beat Mikal Bridges' Villanova 2018 and Michael Jordan's UNC beat Draymond Green's Michigan State. UCLA then won the title, and is now ranked No. 1 of our all-time teams.

In our June 2022 Final Four, Paul Pierce's 1997 Kansas beat 2001 Duke, then another surprise team and the last Big Ten team to win the actual title, Michigan State 2000 beat DePaul 1980 and Terry Cummings. That tournament featured many great teams who were left out of the first batch because we only allowed one team from each school per century. Kansas then won the title and is now ranked No. 2 of our all-time teams.

In our all-time women's Final Four in March 2023, Pat Summit's Tennessee 1998 defeated UConn 2010 in one Final Four game before beating Louisiana Tech 1982, which included Dennis Rodman's sister Debra, in the title game. La Tech had beaten Notre Dame 2018 in the other Final 4 game.

We do have a Sweet 16 of newer teams more recently added we will get back to after this Final 4, and we still need to finish calculating the cards for our 16 new Women's all-time great teams who will also play a Sweet 16 tourament.

 

Pos	Western Kentucky	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	Dwight Smith	17	1	5	4	4	3	2	0	3	16.1 Pts, 9.9 Reb	6'5
2-SG	Clem Haskins	21	4	3	3	4	8	3	0	4	20.4 Pts, 10.0 Reb-NBA	6'3
3-SF	Wayne Chapman	9	1	3	0	1	6	0	3	2	13.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb-NBA	6'6
4-PF	Greg Smith	7	1	2	0	0	6	0	3	2	9.5 Pts, 10.3 Reb-NBA	6'5
5-C	Steve Cunningham	16	0	6	4	7	10	0	1	1	15.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb	6'5
1-PG	Mike Fawcett	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.1 Pts, 0.6 Reb	5'10
2-SG	Butch Kaufman	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	3	4.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb	5'10
3-SF	Norm Weaver	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.9 Pts, 1.7 Reb	6'5
4-PF	Pearl Hicks	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb	6'7
5-C	Jack Butler	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb	6'5
	16 Turnovers	78	7	23	11	16	40	5	7	19
Pos	Oregon St. 1982	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	William Brew	7	1	0	4	6	2	2	1	3	6'1,9.2 ppg	6'2
2-SG	Lester Conner	19	2	3	7	10	5	2	1	4	6'4,14.9 ppg, NBA	6'2
3-SF	Danny Evans	14	1	5	1	3	3	1	0	3	6'5,11.3 ppg	6'6
4-PF	Charlie Sitton	10	2	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	6'8,12.9 ppg, NBA	6'7
5-C	A.C. Green	8	0	3	2	2	6	0	1	5	6'9,8.6 ppg, NBA	6'11
1-PG	Alan Tait	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2,0.5 ppg	6'3
2-SG	Jamie Stangel	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.4 ppg	6'7
3-SF	Jeff Wilson	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.2 ppg	6'7
4-PF	Rob Holbrook	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'86.7 ppg	6'9
5-C	Greg Wiltjer	2	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	6'11,5.4 ppg	6'9
	13 turnovers	62	6	15	14	21	24	7	3	21

W. KY Sets Record with 53-23 Rebound Edge; Survives 11 Buffalo 3-pointers

After Western Kentucky set a Value Add Basketball Game record with a 53-23 rebounding edge, I first wondered if a team whose tallest player was 6'6" could possibly have these incredible rebounding cards. Four of their five starters grabbed a rebound on all six die numbers (Off/Def Rebound: 1-6/1-6 or 1/7/1-7) and the subs hardly played. Could that be correct? I wondered. (the game preview is here)

I pulled up the 1966 season and they averaged ... and incredible 54 rebounds a game and routinely won the rebounding battle by a dozen. Their five starters averaged more rebounds than all players on the opposing team combined. Buffalo 2019 was not even a top 100 team on the defensive glass in www.kenpom.com and the combo was deadly as the Hilltoppers routinely took two, three or even four shots on a trip.

While none of the starters were taller than 6'6", all but one were at least 6'5" - and the one was future NBA great Clem Haskins at a very big 6'3" as he would go 3rd in the NBA draft. In the controversial foul call on Greg Smith on a jump ball that eliminated the from the NCAA tournament against Michigan in 1966, this video shows Smith out jumping all-time great Cazzie Russell by at least a foot at the 8:45 mark of the video. 

And yet, after a series of blowouts in our tournament, this one came down to the wire because CJ Massinburg led a 3-point barrage with four of Buffalo's 11 three-pointers. He got the ball for one last shot at the buzzer, but missed it and Greg Smith grabbed his 15th rebound of the game to seal the 84-82 win.

Western Kentucky improved from 115th place (we originally incorrectly reported them lower due to an error on the cards) up to 89th of the 200 great teams in our game. Buffalo dropped from 135th to 150th. The only two teams we have yet to play will be in our final "debut" game with Drake 1969 (ranked 99th) vs. Nevada 2004 (ranked 138th). All rankings and game results are recorded on this google sheet.

You can also use this template to create your own game box scores easily after recording results on the Value Add Basketball Game scorehseet.

Pos	Western Kentucky	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	Dwight Smith	20	1	7	3	5	5	1	0	2	16.1 Pts, 9.9 Reb	6'5
2-SG	Clem Haskins	22	2	6	4	4	7	3	0	2	20.4 Pts, 10.0 Reb,nba	6'3
3-SF	Wayne Chapman	5	1	1	0	0	9	0	0	5	13.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb,nba	6'6
4-PF	Greg Smith	6	0	2	2	2	15	0	1	1	9.5 Pts, 10.3 Reb,nba	6'5
5-C	Steve Cunningham	23	0	9	5	6	10	0	1	1	15.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb	6'5
1-PG	Mike Fawcett	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.1 Pts, 0.6 Reb	5'10
2-SG	Butch Kaufman	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	1	2	4.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb	5'10
3-SF	Norm Weaver	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.9 Pts, 1.7 Reb	6'5
4-PF	Pearl Hicks	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb	6'7
5-C	Jack Butler	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb	6'5
	10 Turnovers	84	4	29	14	17	53	4	3	17
Pos	Buffalo	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	Davonta Jordan	8	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	3	7.4 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 3.6 Ast	6'2
2-SG	Jayvon Graves	12	2	2	2	2	1	1	0	1	9.7 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.9 Ast	6'3
3-SF	CJ Massinburg	19	4	2	3	6	5	0	0	1	18.2 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 3.0 Ast	6'3
4-PF	Jeremy Harris	11	1	3	2	2	7	0	1	2	14.0 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 3.0 Ast	6'7
5-C	Nick Perkins	19	2	6	1	4	2	0	1	1	14.7 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 0.7 Ast	6'8
1-PG	Dontay Caruthers	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	8.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.8 Ast	6'1
2-SG	Ronaldo Segu	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.1 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast	6'0
3-SF	Jeenathan Williams	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	3.2 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.2 Ast-NBA	6'5
4-PF	Tra'Von Fagan	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.3 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.2 Ast	6'8
5-C	Montell McRae	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	5.6 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 0.5 Ast	6'10
	9 Turnovers	82	11	20	9	15	23	3	3	14

Here is what the template looks like at the beginning of a Value Add Basketball Game.

Here is the bracket of the tournament of the last 16 teams we added. You may notice it is all scratch, which is definitely not always the case in the almost 250 games we've played between all-time great teams since inventing the game five years ago.

 

Seed	Great Team	Score	Card Rnk	Rnk After Gm
1	Massachusetts - 1996	80	53	84
16	Liberty - 2023	78	196	189
8	Charlotte - 1977	95	117	38
9	New Mexico - 1974	68	133	193
4	Temple - 1958	72	70	33
13	Bradley - 1954	60	179	180
5	New Mexico St. - 1970	77	84	29
12	Richmond - 2011	54	190	198
3	Tulsa - 2000 (fixed lineup)	92	63	33
14	Washington St. - 2008	64	185	196
6	Drake - 1969		98
11	Nevada - 2004		138
2	Oregon St. - 1982	81	49	42
15	James Madison - 2024	68	193	191
10	Buffalo - 2019	82	149	135
7	Western Kentucky - 1966 (fixed cards, rating)	84	115	89

Next Round:

We believe UMass 1996 is better than Charlotte 1977 (based on the cards ranked 53rd to 117th), but in our fun www.kenpom.com-like ratings Charlotte surged ahead of UMass with the Cornbread Maxwell's destruction of New Mexico.

We believe Temple and New Mexico State are virtually equal, though New Mexico State was a little more impressive in their first game.

The winner of those two will face each other next.

We believe Tulsa is a good bit better then whoever wins the Drake vs. Nevada game.

We believe Oregon State is better than Western Kentucky.

The winner of those two last games will face each other in the other semi,but first we need to play Drake vs. Nevada- the last two teams of our 200 all-time greats to play a game.

Upgrading Clem Haskins & (cheated?) 1966 Western Kentucky for Game vs. Buffalo

Before explaining why we had to upgrade some 1966 Western Kentucky player cards, take a look at the 8:45 mark of this video of one of the most controversial calls in basketball history that cost them a win against Michigan in the NCAA tournament. Despite no player more than 6-foot-5, Greg Smith won a jump ball with seconds remaining that might have sealed a 79-78 win, but he was called for a foul while jumping for the jump ball.

A great quote from Jay Bilas' incredible ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia regarding the team we had to upgrade on closer consideration:

"Many old-timers believe that WKU's loss to Michigan on March 11, 1966 in the NCAA Mideast Regional semifinal came as a result of the worst call in basketball history. Ahead 79-78 with a few seconds left, WKU forced a jump ball. After winning the tip, Hilltopper Greg Smith was called for a foul - and Mcihgan's Cazzie Russell dropped the two winning free throws."

We have played all but four of our 200 great all-time teams in the Value Add Basketball Game - and are partly trying to play each team at least once to take one more look at the cards to catch anything as simple as having set up the wrong player rotation (Tulsa 2000) to severely underrating a team (today's topic, Western Kentucky 1966).

Before tipping off against the Buffalo team built by Bobby Hurley and then Nate Oats, we discovered several numbers that were off for the Hilltoppers.

1. Clem Haskins, Wayne Chapman and Steve Cunningham are upgraded to the top Stamina, 44, to play all possessions in a game. In eras before minutes were tracked, we default to starters playing 37 possessions and reserves 7 possessions. However, in looking at team box scores from the tournament, it was pretty clear the three stars who were drafted professionally were playing almost the whole game.

2. Likewise, with not steals or blocked shots kept in the 1960s, we default to a point guard being 11-15 on steals and 21-22 on blocks, then shift each number one by position until we get to the center who is a 11-11 steal and 21-25 blocked shots. However, we do look ahead to NBA careers where stats were kept and made two other upgrades:

a. Haskins' steals are upgraded to the best steal range, 11-16 and to steal from anyone on the court on a 31. The NBA didn't start keeping steals as a stat until Haskins was in his 30s, and yet he continued to get steals every year in his 30s, so pretty sure he was elite when he was 10 years younger.

b. Wayne Chapman's 3-point made range is upgraded to 1-3. Chapman actually went to the ABA where they were already using the 3-point shot, and he hit some every year, so pretty sure he would have hit some from a much closer college 3-point line.

Finally Western Kentucky's rating is actually a -2 rather than a -12, the total of their Off 111 minute Def 96 minus 17 (the average great team is about 17 points better than the average team in a given season).