Showing posts with label ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia. Show all posts

Thursday, January 4, 2024

Nevada's Fazekas Best Career of Century? Faces McCarter Who Made Drake's Coach Famous

Our last two all-time great teams to debut in the Value Add Basketball Game are Nevada 2004 and Drake 1969 - and like so many others, what a neat story as I looked them both up - with seven total players in this game going onto the NBA.

First on Drake, in Jay Bilas' ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia he suggests except for one drought from 1988 to 2006 Drake "would have a good argument for ranking among the very best of the mid-majors. There's the 1969 Final Four (this team) ... where John Wooden said (after narrowly holding up this team 85-82 in the middle of the dynasty) 'Drake gave us as much trouble - maybe more - than any team we've ever played in any of these tournaments." Drake was talked into recruiting the player Bilas says is their greatest of all time by Bilas, with a high school teammate saying, "Caoch, listen to me, Willie McCarter is going to make you famous."

Nevada played after we invented the Value Add Basketball rankings, and this team included four players who ranked in the top 4% of all players (Kevinn Pinkney, Kirk Snyder, Todd Okeson and one of the top two career players of this century, Nick Fazekas. 

While Value Add Basketball indicates Anthony Davis was by far the best college player this century, and current Duke coach Jon Scheyer had the best senior season, only nine players finished in the top 4% of all players for four years in college. If you ranked those players based on their average rank of the 4,000+ college players the four years they played - here are your greatest nine college basketball careers this century - with Nevada's Nick Fazekas ranking fourth. 

If your criteria is a player who was elite from his freshman season (after which most would leave for the NBA) every year through their senior year - avoiding and injury-plagued or off year at any point, you could put them in this order.

1 - Tyler Hansbrough - UNC 2006-2009, ave. 14th, highest 3rd in 2008 
2 - Trayce Jackson-Davis - Indiana 2020-2023, ave. 17th, highest 12th in 2022 
3 - Jared Dudley - Boston College 2004-2007, ave 27th, highest 3rd in 2011 
4 - Nick Fazekas - Nevada 2004-2007, ave. 29th, highest 3rd in 2006 
5 - Craig Smith - Boston College 2003-2006, ave. 29th - highest 11th in 2006 
6 - T.J. McConnell - Duquesne 2011-12, Arizona 2014-2015, highest 12th in 2011 
7 - J.J. Redick - Duke 2003-2006, ave. 33rd, highest 2nd in 2006 
8 - Robbie Hummel - Purdue 2008-2010, 2012, ave. 39th, highest 29th in 2010 
9 - Aaron Craft - Ohio St 2011-14, ave 48th - highest 22nd in 2012 

This Nevada team will be the underdog against Final Four Drake, but they had a great tournament run - beating Michigan State and then stunning 2-seed Gonzaga. They then lost a close game to Georgia Tech, who would go on the be the runner up. Here are the Value Add Basketball rankings of the all-time great Nevada players. The only accidental omissions are Cody Martin (should be tied for 116th of 4000+) and Caleb Martin (126th) in 2018. 



In setting up our box score, we start with the standard, but we take players who averaged less than 2 points per game and start them at "0" instead of the customary "2" and then we let some of the 3-point shooters start with a 3-pointer instead of a 2-pointer. As long as your total points end up at 20 for the first roll, you can make slight common sense adjustments to your starting stats. Otherwise the stats listed for every other category are always standard at the start of a game.

 
Nevada 2004                            Pts  3pt 2pt FT Att Reb Stl Blk Fl Season Actual                             Hts
Todd Okeson31000110111.2 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 3.9 Ast6'0
Kirk Snyder31000110118.8 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 3.4 Ast-NBA6'6
Garry Hill-Thomas2010020019.8 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.3 Ast6'4
Kevinn Pinkney2010020019.4 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 0.9 Ast-NBA6'10
Nick Fazekas31000201112.6 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast-NBA6'11
Kyle Shiloh0000010011.8 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.9 Ast6'3
Seth Taylor0000010011.0 Pts, 0.4 Reb, 0.0 Ast6'3
Marcelus Kemp3100010014.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.8 Ast6'5
Jermaine Washington2010010014.1 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.7 Ast6'5
Sean Paul2010010013.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.9 Ast6'9
 204400132110  
            
            
Drake 1969Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlSeason ActualHts
Willie McCarter31000110120.4 Pts, 3.7 Reb-NBA6'3
Dolph Pulliam31000110113.3 Pts, 7.7 Reb6'4
Al Williams2010020018.8 Pts, 7.3 Reb-NBA6'6
Willie Wise20100200114.6 Pts, 11.4 Reb-NBA6'5
Rick Wanamaker2010020114.4 Pts, 3.4 Reb6'9
Don Draper20100100112.3 Pts, 2.4 Reb6'0
Gary Zeller2010010016.3 Pts, 1.6 Reb-NBA6'2
Ron Gwin2010010012.6 Pts, 1.4 Reb6'2
Larry Sharp0000010011.6 Pts, 1.2 Reb6'9
Garry Odom2010010013.8 Pts, 4.5 Reb6'8
 202700132110 

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Upgrading Clem Haskins & (cheated?) 1966 Western Kentucky for Game vs. Buffalo

Before explaining why we had to upgrade some 1966 Western Kentucky player cards, take a look at the 8:45 mark of this video of one of the most controversial calls in basketball history that cost them a win against Michigan in the NCAA tournament. Despite no player more than 6-foot-5, Greg Smith won a jump ball with seconds remaining that might have sealed a 79-78 win, but he was called for a foul while jumping for the jump ball.

A great quote from Jay Bilas' incredible ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia regarding the team we had to upgrade on closer consideration:

"Many old-timers believe that WKU's loss to Michigan on March 11, 1966 in the NCAA Mideast Regional semifinal came as a result of the worst call in basketball history. Ahead 79-78 with a few seconds left, WKU forced a jump ball. After winning the tip, Hilltopper Greg Smith was called for a foul - and Mcihgan's Cazzie Russell dropped the two winning free throws."


We have played all but four of our 200 great all-time teams in the Value Add Basketball Game - and are partly trying to play each team at least once to take one more look at the cards to catch anything as simple as having set up the wrong player rotation (Tulsa 2000) to severely underrating a team (today's topic, Western Kentucky 1966).

Before tipping off against the Buffalo team built by Bobby Hurley and then Nate Oats, we discovered several numbers that were off for the Hilltoppers.

1. Clem Haskins, Wayne Chapman and Steve Cunningham are upgraded to the top Stamina, 44, to play all possessions in a game. In eras before minutes were tracked, we default to starters playing 37 possessions and reserves 7 possessions. However, in looking at team box scores from the tournament, it was pretty clear the three stars who were drafted professionally were playing almost the whole game.

2. Likewise, with not steals or blocked shots kept in the 1960s, we default to a point guard being 11-15 on steals and 21-22 on blocks, then shift each number one by position until we get to the center who is a 11-11 steal and 21-25 blocked shots. However, we do look ahead to NBA careers where stats were kept and made two other upgrades:

a. Haskins' steals are upgraded to the best steal range, 11-16 and to steal from anyone on the court on a 31. The NBA didn't start keeping steals as a stat until Haskins was in his 30s, and yet he continued to get steals every year in his 30s, so pretty sure he was elite when he was 10 years younger.

b. Wayne Chapman's 3-point made range is upgraded to 1-3. Chapman actually went to the ABA where they were already using the 3-point shot, and he hit some every year, so pretty sure he would have hit some from a much closer college 3-point line.

Finally Western Kentucky's rating is actually a -2 rather than a -12, the total of their Off 111 minute Def 96 minus 17 (the average great team is about 17 points better than the average team in a given season).