1st Big Upset - W. Kentucky Claims Final 4 Spot - History of other Final 4s

Our 7-seed Western Kentucky scored the first big upset of our 16-team tournament, dominating the boards in a 78-62 win over 2-seed Oregon State. 

We noted Oregon State's one weakness seemed to be low rebounding numbers, but it was not that big a risk in their 81-68 win against James Madison 2024, which is also a weaker rebounding team. However, WKU was a fantastic rebounding team despite the whole team being 6'5 or 6'6 except for the 6'3 superstar Clem Haskins. They dominated the glass with a 40-24 rebounding edge.

Senior center Steve Cunningham's aggressive play took advantage of the soon-to-be great freshman AC Green. With the Hilltoppers leading 60-55 and 5:49 (10 possessions to play) Cunningham drew the 5th foul on Green and hit the basket for an "and-one," sinking the free throw to make it 63-55.

We did not play Green with "soft defense to avoid the foul" because he had two solid backups on Greg Wiltier and Rob Holbrook with stamina left, but Cunningham finished with a double-double (16 points and 10 rebounds) to go with Clem Haskins 21, 8 for the win.

Western Kentucky, which had barely survived Buffalo 2019 in their first game 84-82, will now face Tulsa and Bill Self in one Final 5 game. They will try to spoil a potential match-up of two of the greatest coaches of the 21st century and rematch of the John Calipari (Memphis) vs. Self (Kansas) 2008 championship with two other teams in the game. This one could be Tulsa vs. UMass 1996. However, new Mexico State 1970 will try to eliminate UMass in the other Final 4 game.

In our March 2020 Final 4 from the original 96 all-time great teams in the game, Bill Walton's UCLA beat Mikal Bridges' Villanova 2018 and Michael Jordan's UNC beat Draymond Green's Michigan State. UCLA then won the title, and is now ranked No. 1 of our all-time teams.

In our June 2022 Final Four, Paul Pierce's 1997 Kansas beat 2001 Duke, then another surprise team and the last Big Ten team to win the actual title, Michigan State 2000 beat DePaul 1980 and Terry Cummings. That tournament featured many great teams who were left out of the first batch because we only allowed one team from each school per century. Kansas then won the title and is now ranked No. 2 of our all-time teams.

In our all-time women's Final Four in March 2023, Pat Summit's Tennessee 1998 defeated UConn 2010 in one Final Four game before beating Louisiana Tech 1982, which included Dennis Rodman's sister Debra, in the title game. La Tech had beaten Notre Dame 2018 in the other Final 4 game.

We do have a Sweet 16 of newer teams more recently added we will get back to after this Final 4, and we still need to finish calculating the cards for our 16 new Women's all-time great teams who will also play a Sweet 16 tourament.

 

Pos	Western Kentucky	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	Dwight Smith	17	1	5	4	4	3	2	0	3	16.1 Pts, 9.9 Reb	6'5
2-SG	Clem Haskins	21	4	3	3	4	8	3	0	4	20.4 Pts, 10.0 Reb-NBA	6'3
3-SF	Wayne Chapman	9	1	3	0	1	6	0	3	2	13.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb-NBA	6'6
4-PF	Greg Smith	7	1	2	0	0	6	0	3	2	9.5 Pts, 10.3 Reb-NBA	6'5
5-C	Steve Cunningham	16	0	6	4	7	10	0	1	1	15.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb	6'5
1-PG	Mike Fawcett	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.1 Pts, 0.6 Reb	5'10
2-SG	Butch Kaufman	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	3	4.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb	5'10
3-SF	Norm Weaver	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.9 Pts, 1.7 Reb	6'5
4-PF	Pearl Hicks	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb	6'7
5-C	Jack Butler	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb	6'5
	16 Turnovers	78	7	23	11	16	40	5	7	19
Pos	Oregon St. 1982	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Hts
1-PG	William Brew	7	1	0	4	6	2	2	1	3	6'1,9.2 ppg	6'2
2-SG	Lester Conner	19	2	3	7	10	5	2	1	4	6'4,14.9 ppg, NBA	6'2
3-SF	Danny Evans	14	1	5	1	3	3	1	0	3	6'5,11.3 ppg	6'6
4-PF	Charlie Sitton	10	2	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	6'8,12.9 ppg, NBA	6'7
5-C	A.C. Green	8	0	3	2	2	6	0	1	5	6'9,8.6 ppg, NBA	6'11
1-PG	Alan Tait	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2,0.5 ppg	6'3
2-SG	Jamie Stangel	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.4 ppg	6'7
3-SF	Jeff Wilson	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.2 ppg	6'7
4-PF	Rob Holbrook	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'86.7 ppg	6'9
5-C	Greg Wiltjer	2	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	6'11,5.4 ppg	6'9
	13 turnovers	62	6	15	14	21	24	7	3	21

Record-holder AC Green Lead's Oregon State vs WKU for Last Final 4 Spot

The Value Add Basketball Game cards for all 200 teams are in good order and should not require any reprints, but we are adding little things as we continue to play games such as suggestions on any players you may want to start with something but other than 2 points before the first die roll. 

For our final Elite 8 game of this tournament, we did catch a very minor item in that we listed "Stamina 0" for Western Kentucky's Mike Fawcett, Butch Kaufman and Norm Weaver, however every player should get a minimum of "Stamina 5" so we have updated. We do not recommend any of the three players normally play any of the 44 possessions in a Value Add game since all likely played less than 11 possessions per game - so the "None" is correct, but if they come in for someone who fouled out or to put one more player who can hit a 3-pointer or get a steal near the end of a game, all players start with at least 5 in Stamina to play at full strength for 5 possessions. You can print the WKU team below by going to List H and printing page 22.

If you then go to List F and print page 12 you get the Oregon State team below. This was early in AC Green's career, so he isn't as dominant as he would get, but he did jump in a starter as a freshman on the great Oregon State squad. 

In the dunk ranges (51-66) this is the most defensive battle we recall. Western Kentucky is a 51-56 but Oregon State's defense of -6 erases that so there are no automatic dunks from 51-66 and you go straight to the player's 20-sided die. Oregon State starts with 0 dunks (51-50) and with Western Kentucky's -5 that results in a STOP range meaning a 51-55 is a missed shot and the defender gets a rebound.

Note on the Oregon State cards that three reserves averaged fewer than 2 points per game, so we will start them at 0 points as we start in a 20-20 tie for the first due roll - and to make up those 6 points we have suggested on the cards starting the first four starters with a 3-pointer made instead of a 2-pointer made for 3 points, and then starting Green with 4 points based on two 2-point shots made.

Green isn't too likely to miss the game injured for anything as he would go on to set the record by playing in 1,192 consecutive NBA games and overall his NBA teams had a 782-496 record. He was also known for being a virgin through his entire career until getting married after his career. He also did not smoke or drink, including not spraying champaign in locker rooms.

He won awards from Athletes in Action and Humanitarian groups. In other words, while as a freshman he wasn't yet the best player on the team but he was already very good - and he is a better person than you and me and anyone else on the team LOL. 

Oregon State was our 2-seed in this tournament, but with a rating of +2 they are only a slight favorite against WKU (-2). That is a 4-point gap for 100 possessions for each team, but that would be a 3-point favorite for a game of around 70 possessions.

Note we put the suggested starting points on the cards and also all the starting numbers on the starting box score along with the starting stats from the Value Add Basketball Game scoresheet.

Pos	Western Kentucky	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Ht
1-PG	Dwight Smith	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	16.1 Pts, 9.9 Reb	6'5
2-SG	Clem Haskins	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	20.4 Pts, 10.0 Reb	6'3
3-SF	Wayne Chapman	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	13.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb	6'6
4-PF	Greg Smith	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	9.5 Pts, 10.3 Reb	6'5
5-C	Steve Cunningham	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	15.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb	6'5
1-PG	Mike Fawcett	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.1 Pts, 0.6 Reb	5'10
2-SG	Butch Kaufman	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	4.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb	5'10
3-SF	Norm Weaver	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.9 Pts, 1.7 Reb	6'5
4-PF	Pearl Hicks	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.3 Pts, 3.0 Reb	6'7
5-C	Jack Butler	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb	6'5
	10 Turnovers	20	2	7	0	0	13	2	1	10
Pos	Oregon St. 1982	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Season Actual	Ht
1-PG	William Brew	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	6'1,9.2 ppg	6'2
2-SG	Lester Conner	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	6'4,14.9 ppg,NBA	6'2
3-SF	Danny Evans	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'5,11.3 ppg	6'6
4-PF	Charlie Sitton	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'8,12.9 ppg,NBA	6'7
5-C	A.C. Green	4	0	2	0	0	2	0	1	1	6'9,8.6 ppg,NBA	6'11
1-PG	Alan Tait	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2,0.5 ppg	6'3
2-SG	Jamie Stangel	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.4 ppg	6'7
3-SF	Jeff Wilson	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.2 ppg	6'7
4-PF	Rob Holbrook	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'86.7 ppg	6'9
5-C	Greg Wiltjer	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'11,5.4 ppg	6'9
	11 turnovers	20	4	4	0	0	13	2	1	10

We will add results after, which will set our Final 4 for this tournament. 

NBA's Most Famous Virgin Leads Oregon St. 1982 Past JMU 2024

Oregon State's AC Green set some amazing streaks, perhaps most incredibly staying a virgin through a 16-year NBA career and until his marriage in 2002 (see Fox Sports story). As a freshman on this Oregon State 1982 team he stepped in as the starting center and helped lead the Beavers to a third straight Pac-10 championship, No. 4 ranking, and Elite 8 run.

This card was from Green's freshman season, so he was good but not yet dominant, and his the other future NBA players Lester Conner and Charlie Sitton have stronger cards. Green stepped in to a void the year after Oregon State lost three players from their defending Pac-10 champs to the NBA in Ray Blume, Steve Johnson and Mark Radford. Later the great Gary Payton and his son Gary Payton II went from Oregon State to the NBA.

Patrick Ewing finally shut Oregon State down in the Elite 8, holding the rest of the team to 35% shooting, but the only one unfazed was Green who hit 3 of 4 shots in a 10-point performance. Two games later, Georgetown led UNC in the title game 62-61 when Jordan hit the first of many game-winning shots. More famous still were the following few seconds as the Hoyas worked down for a potential game-winning shot only to have Fred Brown, thinking a teammate was behind him, pass the ball back to James Worthy who ran out the clock. Coach John Thompson famously hugged Brown to let him know all was ok.

Green went onto finish second all-time in career rebounds and fourth all-time in scoring and then won multiple titles with the Los Angeles Lakers. Anyone who has talked to an NBA player about the number of suitors who come to their hotel doors at night can appreciate what it took to stay a virgin as a star in Los Angeles.

This great Oregon State team ranks 47th of the all-time great teams in our score tracker, behind those two (Jordan's UNC is ranked 7th and a Ewing Georgetown team 33rd), and was seeded No. 2 of our new 16 teams and thus drew the newest team and 15-seed, James Madison University 2024, which started this season with an upset at Michigan State to start a 13-0 start that propelled them to No. 20 in the AP rankings, though www.kenpom.com is not as impressed with them at 62nd. This is the same year the JMU football team debuted in the Top 25 in only their second year at the top level of football.

Oregon State dominated this match-up, but JMU keep within range during an incredible streak of 20 possessions during which JMU scored an incredible three or more points on 7 possessions to get within 66-71 with only eight possessions or 4:35 to play.

However, the Beavers clamed down on the defense with steals and blocked shots by Conner, Danny Evans and a stop by Green to only allow 2 points the last eight possessions to win 68-82 win and advance to the second round.

The following is the box score, followed by the scoresheet to show the running score, and then some screen shots to show the set up. The bottom image shows the setup with a game note. Games typically start with each of the 10 players having 2 points each for the 20-20 tie. However, if some players averaged less than two points per game (such as Oregon State's Alan Tait, Jamie Stangel and Jeff Wilson) then you can start them at 0 points and give those extra points - 6 in this case - to other leading scorers. 

In this case we started the 2nd NBA player on the team Connor with 5 points - added a 3-pointer made to the 2-pointer made that most teams start with in the game. We changed Evans starting 2-pointer with a 3-pointer so he starts with 3 points instead of 2. Finally we gave Green a 2nd basket at the opening to start him with 4 points instead of 2. As long as your total is 20 points at the outset, you can tweak but only if some of the 10 players averaged less than 2 points per game.

One strategy note from the game, with 12 possessions, JMU switched to a "try for 3-pointers" strategy to try to catchup from a 54-65 deficit. This should only be used if a team is running out of time to catchup or needs a 3-pointer on their final trip down the court to tie.  It gives a team a chance for the bigger come-from-behind, but on average you will lose 2 points for every 1 point you gain from changing a 2-pointer to a 3-pointer.

It paid immediate dividends on possession 12 when Noah Friedel had a "5" on the 20-sided die, which would normally be in his 5-8 2-point shot made range. However, when the strategy is used then half the numbers in this range are changed to a 3-pointer made (5-6 for Freidel) but the other half are changed to missed 2-point shot and rebound to the high defensive rebound rating. The 3-pointers can no more than double the number of 3-pointers on the card, and any numbers remaining in the range stay a 2-pointer made. Changing it to a 3-pointer cut the Oregon State lead to 57-66.

The only other possession the strategy effected was with 3 possessions left when JMU's Terrence Edwards drew a "6" on the 20-sided die. Due to the strategy, his normal 3-7 range for 2-pointers made was adjusted to a 3-4 for 3-pointer made (it can no longer double the original 1-2 3-pointer made), with a 5 still a made 2-pointer, and then his 6 on this roll falling within the 6-7 range a missed 2-pointer with AC Green getting the rebound as the high rebounder and never a chance for the offense to grab an offensive rebound when they miss in this range. 

Here is the box score:

Pos	JMU 2024	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Height, PPG
1-PG	Michael Green	10	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	6'0,11.5 ppg
2-SG	Noah Freidel	8	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	4	6'4,10.9 ppg
3-SF	Terrence Edwards	12	2	2	2	2	2	1	0	1	6'6,17.2 ppg
4-PF	Julien Wooden	5	1	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	6'8,9.8 ppg
5-C	TJ Bickerstaff	14	0	6	2	2	2	0	12		6'9,15.8 ppg
1-PG	Bryant Randleman	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'4,1.7 ppg
2-SG	Xavier Brown	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	6'2,7 ppg
3-SF	Quincy Allen	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'8,3.8 ppg
4-PF	Raekwon Horton	4	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	1	6'6,7 ppg
5-C	Jaylen Carey	6	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'8,6.8 ppg
	15 Turnovers	68	8	19	6	6	13	7	1	10
Pos	Oregon St. 1982	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Height, Season
1-PG	William Brew	11	1	4	0	0	1	2	0	1	6'1,9.2 ppg
2-SG	Lester Conner	21	3	3	6	7	1	4	0	1	6'4,14.9 ppg,NBA
3-SF	Danny Evans	14	1	5	1	1	2	2	0	1	6'5,11.3 ppg
4-PF	Charlie Sitton	13	1	5	0	0	2	2	0	2	6'8,12.9 ppg,NBA
5-C	A.C. Green	10	0	5	0	0	2	0	1	3	6'9,8.6 ppg,NBA
1-PG	Alan Tait	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'2,0.5 ppg
2-SG	Jamie Stangel	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.4 ppg
3-SF	Jeff Wilson	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'7,1.2 ppg
4-PF	Rob Holbrook	6	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	6'86.7 ppg
5-C	Greg Wiltjer	6	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'11,5.4 ppg
	13 Turnovers	81	6	28	7	8	13	10	1	10