UCLA 1975 Advances as Value Add point spreads continue incredible accuracy

In our second straight game the new great DYNASTY TEAM in our tournament survived an early foul out by their center to beat the new team in the game because one their PLAYERS is not ranked by the NBA as one of the greatest 75 players in history.

In the ratings on this google sheet when we create the teams, the 1975 UCLA team is a +11 and their opponent the 1960 Detroit Mercy team is a -3, making UCLA a 14-point favorite in the game. Based on www.kenpom.com calculations, a 14-point favorite has about a 91% chance to win. Ralph Drollinger, the 7-foot-2 center from John Wooden's last NCAA champs, fouled out early.

The 14-seed Detroit kept it closer against the 3-seed UCLA, with super star Dave DeBusschere scoing with 7:40 (13 possessions) left to cut the UCLA lead to 55-52. On the next trip, Larry Hughes hit a 3-pointer, and the game was tied 55-55 with a chance for the big upset. However, UCLA then went on a 12-0 run over the next over the next 10 possessions to put the game out of reach en route to a 72-60 win.

The last of the 4 big underdogs added because they had an all-time great player is Bowling Green, that will go in as a 12-point underdog with just a 13% chance against the 1978 Kentucky team. Here are all 8 match-ups: 

Favored by	Chance	Result	Favorite	Year	Rating	Underdog	Year	Rating
24	99%	W 80-66	Cincinnati	1962	17	Syracuse	1966	-7
18	95%	W 85-65	UCLA	1964	15	Villanova	1950	-3
18	95%	TBD	Kentucky	2012	16	Dartmouth	1944	-2
14	91%	W 72-60	UCLA	1975	11	Detroit Mercy	1960	-3
13	89%	TBD	UCLA	1967	14	Kansas	1952	1
12	87%	TBD	Kentucky	1978	10	Bowling Green	1963	-2
10	81%	TBD	Duke	1992	11	Connecticut	2011	1
6	71%	TBD	UNLV	1991	11	North Carolina	2017	5

The chance of winning has proven very accurate in the 274 games between great teams with a favorite have proven incredibly accurate - not too few or too many upsets - based on the chance our predicted spread based on the team ratings would predict. 

UCLA was the 17th team to be a 13 to 17 point favorite, meaning www.kenpom.com would predict a 91% chance of winning - and in fact their win makes the favorites in those games 15-2, or 88%.

As you can see from our tracking table, team's that are 1 to 6 point favorites are expected to win 65% of the time, and in fact those teams are just a few wins short of that at 94-60 for 61%. A team that is favored by 7 to 12 averages winning 80% in real basketball, and in the game they are right there at 71-17 or 81%. And finally teams that are favored by 18 or more should win about 96% of their games, or 24 of 25, and so far they are 15-0 in our game.

The interesting thing is that while the chances of winning are amazingly accurate for favorite teams, the margins of victory for one group of teams has been closer than expected - with teams favored by 13-17 points per game winning by an average of only 7.5 points per game during their 15-2 start.

 

Favorite	W	L	Act W%	Expect W%	ppg	Allow
Games where teams are favored by 1 to 6	94	60	61%	65%	75.3	71.7
Games where one team was favored by 7 to 12	71	17	81%	80%	76.3	67.8
Games where one team was favored by 13 to 17	15	2	88%	91%	77.8	70.3
Games with an 18 to 29 point favorite	15	0	100%	96%	75.1	58.3
Total Favorite All Games	195	79	71%
22 Games with no favorite	22	0	NA	NA	76.7	67.6

In the tournament that leaves Mike Thurmond, one of four players who got his team in this tournament by breaking into the NBA's all-time top 75 players list, with the last of four chances for a "great player" team to beat one of the four new dynasties addedtto the game in 1978 Kentucky, which will be a 12-point favorite and thus have an 87% chance to advance and potentially face another great  Kentucky team and Anthony Davis in the Elite 8.

Likewise if Kareem Abdul-Jabbar can lead 1967 UCLA past Kansas 1952, they will face the first undefeated UCLA champ in the 1964 Bruins from just before he arrived on campus.

Here are the players from both teams.

Detroit Mercy 1960	Ht	Actual Season Stats
Ray Albee	5'9	14.4 Pts,4.2 Reb
Larry Hughes	6'4	11.7 Pts,8.1 Reb
George Heger	6'3	5.0 Pts,5.4 Reb
Dave DeBusschere - star	6'6	NBA,25.6 Pts,20.0 Reb
Charlie North	6'6	19.8 Pts,14.2 Reb
Tom Villemure	5'9	2.1 Pts,0.3 Reb
Frank Chickowski	6'1	4.3 Pts,3.1 Reb
Bob Wright	6'4	1.4 Pts,1.5 Reb
John Parker	6'4	1.2 Pts,2.1 Reb
Dick Dylus	6'8	1.3 Pts,0.7 Reb
UCLA 1975	Ht	Actual Season Stats
Pete Trgovich	6'4	10.2 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 2.9 Ast
Dave Meyers	6'8	NBA,18.3 Pts, 7.9 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Marques Johnson	6'7	NBA,11.6 Pts, 7.1 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Richard Washington	6'11	NBA,15.9 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast
Ralph Drollinger	7'2	NBA,8.8 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Jim Spillane	5'11	4.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Andre McCarter	6'3	NBA,7.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 5.0 Ast
Casey Corliss	6'6	3.1 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Wilbert Olinde	6'7	3.1 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Brett Vroman	7'0	3.5 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast

Updated Top 200 Hoops Teams All-time; Updated Links 200 Players

Note - the 200 player links are all new - we were linking only to their NBA stats, but now they are linked to their college careers at basketball reference.

After winning our third Value Add Basketball Game tournament, Western Kentucky's 1966 moves up to 39th in our all time rankings. Based on their cards we started them ranked as the 169th best all-time team. If we used a formula very close to that at www.kenpom.com then they would have moved up, but only to 56th. This is because we basically use Pomeroy's formula (as close as we can replicate it from watching it play out), but we give an extra 4 points for winning a game or subtract 4 when a team loses.

The following updates our rankings of the top 200 all-time teams in our game. We list the three teams to win our tournaments so far, then the other 14 teams still undefeated in our current tournament of mainly newer teams we built, and then the remaining 183 teams who have lost at least one game. We track all game results and rankings here.

The following is the explanation for each header:

Rank - our current ranking for the team, which is adjusted up or down after every game based on if they win or lose, the margin, and the strength of schedule (how tough the opponents have been).

Card - How good we actually believe the team is based on their cards.

Pom - The approximate www.kenpom.com rating, which is the same as Rank except teams do not get an extra 4 points for winning or lose points for losing.

Team.

Year played.

Player - their best known player.

Conference - the Conference they will be in for the 2024-25 season under realignment, regardless of the conference they were in at the time. We did use "P12" for both Pac-12 and potential partner Mountain West.

W - wins in our games so far.

L - Losses in our games so far.

Sc - Average points scored in our games so far.

All - Average points allowed in games so far.

SOS- Strength of Schedule, how tough their opponents were.

This month we have had 14,947 unique visitors, the fourth most in the history of the blog, and if we have our sixth straight day of at least 1,000 unique visitors we would break the all-time record with more than one-third of the month to go.

1. April 2020 - 15,870
2. October 2019 - 15,584
3. June 2021 - 15,581
4. Jan 2024 - 15,007 - Jan 18 2 am CT
5. July 2021 - 14,847
6. Aug 2021 - 14,810
7. Aug 2020 - 13,997
8. Sept 2021 - 13,793
9. Sept 2020 - 13,661
10. May 2020 - 13,345 

Rank	Card	pom	Champions	Yr	Player	Conf	W	L	Sc	All	SOS
1	1	1	UCLA	1972	Bill Walton	B10	6	0	72.0	62.0	-0.5
2	17	4	Kansas	1997	Paul Pierce	B12	5	0	76.8	62.4	-1.0
39	169	56	Western Kentucky	1966	Clem Haskins	Low	4	0	79.8	69.3	-0.3
Rank	Card	pom	Current Tourney	Yr	Player	Conf	W	L	Sc	All	SOS
14	7	20	Connecticut	2023	Adama Sanogo	BE	2	0	78.5	58.0	-11.0
35	105	42	Rutgers	1976	Phil Sellers	B10	2	0	90.5	75.5	-7.0
46	65	52	Houston	2021	Quentin Grimes	B12	1	0	102.0	50.0	-16.0
47	72	53	Tennessee	2023	Santiago Vescovi	SEC	1	0	75.0	67.0	-4.0
50	171	72	Colorado	2021	McKinley Wright	B12	3	0	82.3	78.0	-0.3
52	38	65	Duke	2015	Justise Winslow	ACC	2	0	75.0	72.5	-7.0
58	54	74	Massachusetts	1996	Marcus Camby	A10	2	0	84.5	80.5	-8.0
61	107	68	SMU	2017	Semi Ojeleye	ACC	1	0	77.0	64.0	-7.0
63	177	86	North Carolina	2022	Armando Bacot	ACC	2	0	80.5	68.0	-2.5
64	97	73	Gonzaga	2023	Drew Timme	WCC	1	0	86.0	74.0	-7.0
70	66	75	Kansas	2022	Ochai Agbaji	B12	1	0	87.0	81.0	-7.9
77	155	90	Xavier	2023	Jack Nunge	BE	1	0	83.0	68.0	-4.0
78	89	95	Texas	2023	Marcus Carr	SEC	2	0	90.5	87.0	-6.0
116	176	141	Miami	2023	Norchad Omier	ACC	2	0	88.5	87.5	-4.0
Rank	Card	pom	Teams with a loss	Yr	Player	Conf	W	L	Sc	All	SOS
3	4	3	Duke	2001	Shane Battier	ACC	3	1	78.3	72.5	4.8
4	10	2	Ohio St.	1960	Jerry Lucas	B10	2	1	84.0	76.3	4.7
5	9	5	Indiana	1976	Scott May	B10	3	1	71.3	59.8	-0.8
6	14	8	Houston	1968	Elvin Hayes	B12	3	1	73.0	63.8	1.3
7	53	7	Kansas	2008	Mario Chalmers	B12	5	1	74.7	56.0	-0.7
8	13	11	North Carolina	1982	Michael Jordan	ACC	5	1	68.8	65.0	4.0
9	5	6	Kentucky	1996	Antoine Walker	SEC	2	1	72.0	69.3	3.3
10	25	12	San Francisco	1956	Bill Russell	WCC	3	1	73.0	63.5	1.0
11	16	10	North Carolina	2005	Sean May	ACC	3	2	72.2	64.4	2.0
12	20	9	Arkansas	1994	Corliss Williamson	SEC	1	2	75.3	70.3	8.0
13	26	19	Villanova	2018	Mikal Bridges	BE	7	2	79.4	70.3	0.1
15	50	18	Connecticut	2004	Ben Gordon	BE	5	2	74.7	66.0	0.7
16	49	13	Baylor	2021	Jared Butler	B12	2	2	86.0	78.5	4.8
17	37	21	Virginia	2019	Kyle Guy	ACC	4	1	72.6	65.4	2.4
18	34	16	Louisville	2013	Russ Smith	ACC	2	1	74.0	66.3	1.7
19	21	15	Gonzaga	2017	Nigel Williams-Goss	WCC	3	3	69.8	63.0	3.0
20	2	23	Kentucky	2012	Anthony Davis	SEC	4	2	72.2	65.7	-4.7
21	8	14	Duke	1992	Christian Laettner	ACC	1	2	73.7	70.3	1.0
22	15	22	North Carolina St.	1974	David Thompson	ACC	2	1	72.0	72.7	4.3
23	122	24	DePaul	1980	Mark Aguirre	BE	3	1	76.8	68.8	3.5
24	29	25	Duke	2010	Jon Scheyer	ACC	5	2	74.0	66.7	0.1
25	22	26	Houston	1983	Hakeem Olajuwon	B12	2	1	70.7	65.0	-0.3
26	24	27	Michigan St.	1979	Magic Johnson	B10	2	1	70.3	62.7	-2.3
27	6	17	Cincinnati	1960	Oscar Robertson	B12	1	2	72.3	78.0	8.3
28	43	28	Michigan	1965	Cazzie Russell	B10	2	1	85.7	79.0	-1.0
29	83	29	New Mexico St.	1970	Jimmy Collins	Low	2	1	79.0	67.7	-3.0
30	60	30	Purdue	2018	Carsen Edwards	b10	4	1	71.2	68.8	2.8
31	3	31	UCLA	1967	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	B10	2	1	83.0	87.0	-2.0
32	92	44	Auburn	2019	Chuma Okeke	SEC	8	1	71.0	65.3	-2.6
33	32	33	Illinois	2005	Deron Williams	B10	3	2	72.0	69.6	1.2
34	30	34	Georgetown	1984	Patrick Ewing	BE	2	1	67.3	65.3	0.0
36	36	40	Michigan St.	2000	Mateen Cleaves	B10	4	1	79.6	77.2	-1.6
37	112	36	Wake Forest	1996	Tim Duncan	ACC	2	1	66.0	64.7	6.0
39	68	37	Oregon	2017	Dillon Brooks	B10	4	3	71.9	69.9	1.6
40	45	35	Wisconsin	2015	Frank Kaminsky	B10	2	2	65.0	63.3	1.0
41	11	32	UNLV	1991	Larry Johnson	P12	1	2	72.7	76.3	0.7
42	88	41	Syracuse	2003	Carmelo Anthony	ACC	2	1	76.0	74.0	3.0
43	42	48	Memphis	2008	Derrick Rose	Amer	4	2	68.7	65.8	-0.3
44	40	45	Indiana	1981	Isaiah Thomas	B10	2	1	72.7	72.3	0.0
45	103	54	Oklahoma	1985	Wayman Tisdale	SEC	3	1	75.3	73.8	1.8
48	100	38	Loyola Marymount	1990	Bo Kimble	WCC	1	2	112.3	108.3	2.3
49	111	49	UTEP (Texas Western)	1966	Bobby Joe Hill	Low	2	1	63.7	66.0	6.7
51	52	46	Jacksonville	1970	Artis Gilmore	Low	1	1	78.0	75.0	-2.0
53	27	47	Cincinnati	2002	Jason Maxiell	B12	2	2	72.8	71.5	-1.5
54	12	55	Florida	2006	Joakim Noah	SEC	5	3	74.4	72.0	-4.6
55	117	60	Charlotte	1977	Cedric Maxwell	Amer	1	1	84.5	71.5	-1.0
56	75	57	USC	2021	Evan Mobley	B10	2	1	73.7	70.7	-4.3
57	101	62	Michigan St.	2009	Draymond Green	B10	6	3	71.3	71.9	1.6
59	48	66	Arizona	2015	Stanley Johnson	B12	3	1	75.3	70.5	-6.0
60	87	61	Syracuse	1987	Rony Seikaly	ACC	2	1	72.3	68.7	-2.0
62	31	63	Illinois	1989	Nick Anderson	B10	2	1	87.0	84.0	-5.3
65	19	64	North Carolina	1998	Vince Carter	ACC	2	1	80.7	83.7	-3.0
66	18	39	Michigan	1989	Glen Rice	B10	0	2	70.5	78.5	3.0
67	69	58	Seton Hall	1989	John Morton	BE	1	1	78.0	78.0	1.5
68	86	59	Providence	1987	Billy Donovan	BE	1	1	66.0	64.5	1.5
69	127	70	Marquette	2023	Tyler Kolek	BE	2	1	85.7	83.0	0.1
71	123	71	Duke	2022	Wendell Moore	ACC	2	1	80.3	76.0	-1.7
72	57	51	Michigan	2013	Trey Burke	B10	1	2	70.3	69.7	0.3
73	35	50	Loyola-Chicago	1963	Jerry Harkness	A10	0	1	62.0	68.0	-2.0
74	146	69	Iowa	2021	Luka Garza	B10	1	1	79.5	70.5	-3.5
75	73	77	Texas Tech	2019	Jarrett Culver	B12	3	2	65.6	67.2	0.8
76	47	83	Arizona	1997	Mike Bibby	B12	2	1	68.7	71.0	-1.0
79	23	81	Kansas	1957	Wilt Chamberlain	B12	3	2	67.8	71.4	-0.4
80	58	67	Ohio St.	2007	Greg Oden	B10	2	3	70.2	71.4	0.6
81	33	79	Kentucky	1948	Alex Groza	SEC	1	1	71.0	81.5	3.0
82	90	80	Vanderbilt	1993	Bill McCaffrey	SEC	1	1	72.5	72.5	0.0
83	74	93	Tulsa	2000	David Shelton	Amer	2	1	75.0	70.7	-4.3
84	59	60	Pittsburgh	2009	DeJuan Blair	ACC	1	3	60.0	62.3	2.3
85	81	85	Marquette	1977	Butch Lee	BE	1	1	66.0	61.5	-5.0
86	82	87	Marquette	2003	Dwyane Wade	BE	2	2	73.3	74.0	0.0
87	71	89	Temple	1958	Guy Rodgers	Amer	1	1	66.0	68.5	-4.5
88	64	82	Georgia Tech	2004	Jarrett Jack	ACC	2	3	62.6	67.4	3.8
89	55	92	Minnesota	1977	Kevin McHale	B10	1	1	69.5	68.5	-3.0
90	77	84	Georgetown	2007	Roy Hibbert	BE	1	2	76.7	75.3	-1.7
91	142	94	Maryland	1984	Len Bias	B10	1	1	69.5	68.5	1.5
92	51	76	Duke	1986	Johnny Dawkins	ACC	0	1	106.0	108.0	-6.0
93	119	96	Creighton	2023	Ryan Kalkbrenner	BE	1	1	86.0	86.0	0.5
94	102	105	Missouri	1982	Steve Stipanovich	SEC	2	1	73.7	73.3	-1.7
95	39	91	Indiana St.	1979	Larry Bird	Low	1	2	79.7	81.0	-4.0
96	63	88	California	1959	Jack Grout	ACC	0	1	69.0	71.0	-2.0
97	78	99	Holy Cross	1950	Bob Cousy	Low	1	1	88.0	89.5	-2.0
98	80	100	LSU	1992	Shaquille O'Neal	SEC	1	1	82.5	81.0	-5.0
99	28	78	Connecticut	1999	Richard Hamilton	BE	0	2	60.5	73.0	5.0
100	56	103	Oregon St.	1982	A.C. Green	P12	1	1	71.5	73.0	-7.0
101	94	107	Drake	1969	Willie McCarter	Low	1	1	74.5	74.5	-3.0
102	108	97	St. John's	1985	Chris Mullin	BE	0	1	75.0	76.0	0.0
103	148	111	Kansas St.	2023	Markquis Nowell	B12	1	1	81.0	74.0	-6.5
104	129	113	San Diego St.	2011	Kawhi Leonard	P12	2	2	69.3	71.8	-0.3
105	46	98	Alabama	2023	Brandon Miller	SEC	0	1	78.0	79.0	-13.0
106	106	101	Seattle	1958	Elgin Baylor	Low	0	1	62.0	64.0	0.0
107	150	106	Marquette	1971	Jim Chones	BE	1	2	70.0	72.7	3.0
108	147	115	Kansas St.	2008	Michael Beasley	B12	1	1	75.0	75.5	0.5
109	104	104	Purdue	1969	Rick Mount	b10	0	1	86.0	87.0	-2.0
110	67	102	Oklahoma St.	2004	John Lucas	B12	1	3	68.8	71.0	-1.5
111	130	109	South Carolina	2017	Sindarius Thornwell	SEC	1	2	65.3	65.7	-2.0
112	138	108	Mississippi	2001	Justin Reed	SEC	0	1	56.0	67.0	5.0
113	152	128	Stanford	2008	Brook Lopez	ACC	2	1	79.7	79.0	-4.0
114	62	110	Virginia	1981	Ralph Sampson	ACC	0	1	61.0	72.0	-3.0
115	121	125	Dayton	2020	Obi Toppin	A10	1	1	81.5	80.5	-4.0
117	79	112	Indiana	2002	Jared Jeffries	B10	1	3	67.3	72.8	1.3
118	140	114	South Carolina	1973	Mike Dunleavy	SEC	0	1	66.0	72.0	6.0
119	98	129	Iowa St.	2014	DeAndre Kane	B12	1	1	73.0	75.5	-5.0
120	131	130	Tennessee	1977	Bernard King	SEC	1	1	76.0	83.0	1.0
121	61	116	St. Bonaventure	1970	Bob Lanier	A10	0	1	64.0	74.0	-6.0
122	116	117	Alabama	1977	Reggie King	SEC	0	1	70.0	71.0	-3.0
123	41	118	Maryland	2002	Juan Dixon	B10	1	3	67.0	76.3	0.8
124	44	120	UNLV	1987	Armen Gilliam	P12	0	1	64.0	82.0	-6.0
125	95	121	Florida St.	1993	Charlie Ward	ACC	0	1	76.0	78.0	-7.0
126	113	122	West Virginia	1959	Jerry West	b12	0	1	68.0	69.0	-8.0
127	115	123	La Salle	1954	Tom Gola	A10	0	1	67.0	76.0	-3.0
128	157	124	DePaul	1945	George Mikan	BE	0	1	51.0	55.0	7.0
129	85	119	Oklahoma	2016	Buddy Hield	SEC	1	3	60.3	67.3	1.3
130	137	126	Miami	2013	Shane Larkin	ACC	0	1	67.0	75.0	0.0
131	141	138	St. Mary's	2023	Logan Johnson	WCC	1	1	83.0	84.0	-5.5
132	70	134	St. Joe's	2004	Jameer Nelson	A10	1	2	68.3	75.7	-1.7
133	84	131	North Carolina	1957	Lennie Rosenbluth	ACC	0	1	76.0	89.0	-1.0
134	133	132	Washington	2006	Brandon Roy	B10	0	1	98.0	99.0	-7.0
135	151	133	Notre Dame	1981	Orlando Woolridge	ACC	0	1	68.0	74.0	4.0
136	114	127	West Virginia	2010	Kevin Jones	b12	1	3	70.3	76.0	0.0
137	132	137	UCLA	2006	Jordan Farmar	B10	2	3	66.0	72.4	0.4
138	144	136	Buffalo	2019	CJ Massinburg	Low	0	1	82.0	84.0	-2.0
139	110	139	Texas	2003	T.J. Ford	SEC	1	2	68.7	76.3	-1.0
140	182	140	Iowa	2001	Reggie Evans	B10	1	2	71.0	75.3	1.7
141	167	145	Wichita St.	2013	Fred VanVleet	Amer	1	2	64.3	71.3	1.7
142	172	135	Davidson	2008	Stephen Curry	A10	1	5	66.7	70.8	0.7
143	136	142	Brigham Young	1981	Danny Ainge	B12	0	1	67.0	77.0	0.0
144	160	143	Nevada	2004	Nick Fazekas	P12	0	1	82.0	84.0	-2.0
145	184	144	Virginia Tech	1986	Dell Curry	ACC	0	1	81.0	87.0	7.4
146	96	146	Georgia Tech	1990	Dennis Scott	ACC	0	1	64.0	82.0	1.0
147	125	150	LSU	2006	Glen Davis	SEC	1	2	66.3	75.0	-0.7
148	165	147	Seton Hall	2020	Myles Powell	BE	0	1	78.0	80.0	-3.4
149	109	148	Texas A&M	2007	Acie Law	SEC	0	1	60.0	77.0	-1.0
150	158	149	Marquette	2011	Jimmy Butler	BE	0	1	82.0	87.0	-1.0
151	154	151	VCU	1985	Calvin Duncan	A10	0	1	76.0	85.0	-1.0
152	166	152	TCU	2023	JaKobe Coles	B12	0	1	77.0	79.0	-5.0
153	134	153	Utah	1998	Andre Miller	B12	0	1	69.0	79.0	-4.0
154	126	167	Marquette	1994	Jim McIlvaine	BE	1	1	70.0	80.5	-4.2
155	120	154	Dayton	1967	Don May	A10	0	1	69.0	88.0	1.0
156	170	155	Boston College	2006	Jared Dudley	ACC	0	1	72.0	76.0	-2.0
157	189	156	Mississippi St.	2005	Lawrence Roberts	SEC	0	1	69.0	71.0	5.0
158	143	157	Arizona St.	1980	Byron Scott	B12	0	1	64.0	79.0	2.0
159	149	158	Kansas	1988	Danny Manning	B12	0	1	58.0	67.0	-4.0
160	153	159	UCLA	2021	Jaime Jaquez	B10	0	1	81.0	90.0	-4.0
161	91	160	Arkansas	1978	Sidney Moncrief	SEC	0	1	58.0	79.0	-2.0
162	178	175	Auburn	1984	Charles Barkley	SEC	1	1	71.5	77.0	-3.5
163	118	161	Clemson	1987	Horace Grant	ACC	0	1	77.0	97.0	-1.0
164	159	162	Navy	1986	David Robinson	Low	0	1	61.0	77.0	4.0
165	162	163	Oklahoma St.	1946	Bob Kurland	B12	0	1	80.0	82.0	-10.0
166	163	164	Penn St.	2018	Tony Carr	B10	0	1	82.0	90.0	-4.0
167	168	165	Wyoming	1943	Ken Sailors	P12	0	1	60.0	73.0	1.0
168	180	168	Central Florida	2019	Joey Graham	B12	0	1	70.0	74.0	-3.0
169	135	169	Arkansas	2021	JD Notae	SEC	0	1	68.0	83.0	-5.0
170	139	174	Notre Dame	1970	Austin Carr	ACC	1	2	67.3	81.3	1.3
171	99	170	Louisville	1980	Darrell Griffith	ACC	0	1	52.0	82.0	3.0
172	183	171	Villanova	1985	Ed Pinckney	BE	0	1	65.0	72.0	-2.0
173	190	172	Nebraska	2014	Terran Petteway	B10	0	1	72.0	75.0	3.0
174	185	177	San Diego St.	2023	Jaedon LeDee	P12	0	1	78.0	84.0	-1.0
175	187	185	Georgia	1982	Dominique Wilkins	SEC	1	1	70.0	78.0	-1.0
176	181	166	George Mason	2006	Jai Lewis	A10	0	3	59.3	67.0	0.3
177	124	178	Kentucky	1970	Dan Issel	SEC	0	1	116.0	138.0	-4.0
178	174	179	Marquette	1955	Terry Rand	BE	0	1	74.0	86.0	-2.0
179	128	180	New Mexico	1974	Bernard Hardin	P12	0	1	68.0	95.0	-3.0
180	173	181	Florida Atlantic	2023	Johnell Davis	Amer	0	1	64.0	77.0	-2.0
181	179	182	Bradley	1954	Bob Carney	Low	0	1	60.0	72.0	0.0
182	76	173	Wake Forest	2005	Chris Paul	ACC	0	3	64.3	85.3	4.3
183	93	176	Creighton	2014	Doug McDermott	BE	0	3	66.3	80.0	-1.3
184	161	183	Northwestern	2017	Vic Law	B10	0	1	70.0	85.0	-5.0
185	164	184	Princeton	1965	Bill Bradley	Low	0	1	62.0	79.0	-3.0
186	145	186	Creighton	2020	Ty-Shon Alexander	BE	0	1	72.0	106.0	8.0
187	175	187	Miami	1965	Rick Barry	ACC	0	1	104.0	108.0	-16.0
188	193	188	Stephen f austin	2016	Thomas Walkup	Low	0	1	94.0	95.0	-2.0
189	196	190	Liberty	2023	Darius McGhee	Low	0	1	78.0	80.0	2.0
190	197	191	LSU	1970	Pete Maravich	SEC	0	1	66.0	67.0	1.0
191	192	193	James Madison	2024	Terrence Edwards	Low	0	1	68.0	81.0	2.0
192	194	189	VCU	2011	Bradford Burgess	A10	0	3	60.3	71.3	1.0
193	195	195	Murray St.	2019	Ja Morant	Low	0	1	78.0	85.0	-3.0
194	156	192	Butler	2010	Gordon Hayward	BE	0	3	54.7	76.3	4.3
195	188	194	Loyola-Chicago	2018	Cameron Krutwig	A10	0	3	59.3	75.0	1.7
196	186	196	Washington St.	2008	Kyle Weaver	P12	0	1	64.0	92.0	0.0
197	198	197	Niagara	1970	Calvin Murphy	Low	0	1	68.0	84.0	6.0
198	191	198	Richmond	2011	Justin Harper	A10	0	1	54.0	77.0	-1.0
199	200	199	St. Peter's	2022	Doug Edert	Low	0	1	39.0	77.0	2.0
200	199	200	Princeton	2023	Tosan Evbuomwan	Low	0	1	50.0	102.0	0.0

Big Ten Boasts BY FAR the Best Player in Edey in the Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big Ten Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Jalen Pickett	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Trayce Jackson-Davis	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Cam Spencer	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Hunter Dickinson	Michigan	8.14	116.3	97.4	18-16, nba 53 in 2024
2nd T-Big Ten Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Boo Buie	Northwestern	7.96	106.4	94.3	7-seed, 22-12 (PG), Poss 28.6%
Joey Hauser	Michigan St.	7.84	121.4	96.6	7-seed, 21-13, Poss 19.5%
Jahmir Young	Maryland	7.76	106.7	95.6	8-seed, 22-13 (PG), Poss 29.4%
Terrence Shannon	Illinois	7.57	111.9	94.9	9-seed, 20-13, nba 43 in 2024
Mason Gillis	Purdue	7.48	121.5	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, Poss 16.6%
HM-Big Ten Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Keisei Tominaga	Nebraska	7.43	119.6	98.8	16-16, Poss 21.3%
Caleb Furst	Purdue	7.33	121.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, Poss 15.8%
Zed Key	Ohio St.	6.56	117	101.6	16-19, Poss 23.1%
Kris Murray	Iowa	6.53	118.3	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, nba 23 in 2023
Seth Lundy	Penn St.	6.46	117.5	101.1	10-seed, 23-14, nba 46 in 2023
Steven Crowl	Wisconsin	6.46	109	94.1	20-15, Poss 23.2%
Brice Sensabaugh	Ohio St.	6.34	112	101.6	16-19, nba 28 in 2023
Miller Kopp	Indiana	6.05	125.2	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, Poss 10.9%
Filip Rebraca	Iowa	6.05	118.9	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, Poss 21.3%
Payton Sandfort	Iowa	5.88	117.3	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, Poss 22.7%
Connor McCaffery	Iowa	5.34	123.9	104.6	8-seed, 19-14, Poss 12.1%

Above is a very late All-Big Ten Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The Big Ten boasted the second most top 300 players just behind the ACC, and that list starts with by far the best college basketball player last year and this, 7-foot-4 Zach Edey of Purdue. This doesn't mean Edey will be a dominant NBA player - he is projected to go at the end of the second round because the fast breaks in the NBA won't wait for him - but in college he is the guy who dominates both ends. While Purdue took an early exit last year - so did UVa the year before they won the national title, and this seems a great chance to end the stunning streak of the Big Ten not winning a title yet this Century (Michigan State's 2000 title is technically the last year of the 19th century).

What an incredible move to grab four of the best Pac-12 teams to basically combined the old Rose Bowl showdown into one conference. Both USC and UCLA have made Elite 8 runs in the last few years, and would give the conference 10 NCAA bids last year if they were already in the conference. Look down the current Pomeroy rankings on this chart - only one of the 16 teams would be outside the top 82 (Minnesota) in addition to Purdue being No. 1. Next season should be the greatest conference tournament in the history of college basketball.

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed23	Rnk24
Illinois	B10	B10	B10	9	29
Indiana	B10	B10	B10	4	79
Iowa	B10	B10	B10	8	49
Maryland	B10	B10	B10	8	57
Michigan	B10	B10	B10		39
Michigan St.	B10	B10	B10	7	22
Minnesota	B10	B10	B10		107
Nebraska	B10	B10	B10		42
Northwestern	B10	B10	B10	7	59
Ohio St.	B10	B10	B10		50
Oregon	P12	P12	B10		37
Penn St.	B10	B10	B10	10	82
Purdue	B10	B10	B10	1	1
Rutgers	B10	B10	B10		63
UCLA	P12	P12	B10	2	31
USC	P12	P12	B10	10	30
Washington	P12	P12	B10		61
Wisconsin	B10	B10	B10		23

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%