Winslow 23/10 Mismatch Gives 2015 Duke 75-73 Win vs. Marquette 2023

 Kam Jones sent Marquette to our Sweet 16 of new Value Add Basketball Game teams as one of the only players who could have avoided a turnover on a "41" roll to then hit a 3-pointer at the horn to beat Creighton 94-93 and set up a game with Duke's 2015 national champs. 

While Marquette had a disappointing 2nd round loss to Michigan State last year and Duke exploded to the title in 2015 - heading into that tournament Duke was ranked #5 by the AP and #6 at www.kenpom.com while basically the same team right now is ranked #3 by the AP and #5 at www.kenpom.com after Tuesday night's win vs. Southern - which I attended.

The mismatch appears to be based on NBA talent, where Duke 2015 may be the only team in our game with eight NBA players. However, even this is interesting since we mark players as "NBA" if they either played in the league or are forecast to go in one of the next two NBA drafts at NBADraft.net.  Marquette had only one NBA player in the game in Olivier-Maxence Prosper, however that changed recently. Kam Jones moved into a projected 2025 2nd round pick, and then this week he was moved up to a projected 2024 projected pick and Oso Ighodaro shot all the way to the top of the 2nd round in the 2024 draft and on the verge of being projected as a 1st rounder.

In this game, Marquette led only a few times in a back-and-forth stretch starting with 22 possessions left (13:11) when Olivier-Maxence Prosper scored to make it 52-50 Marquette, through the 16th possession left when Justise Winslow stole a pass and scored on the fast break to put Duke ahead for good 57-56.

As great as Jones' card is, a mismatch was created because Marquette starts three pure guards with little rebounding, while the 6'6 powerful Winslow is one of three overpowering frontline Duke players (6'11 Jahlil Okafor and 6'9 Amile Jefferson are the others even after 7'0 Marshall Plumlee plays the opening minutes. When a defensive rebound opportunity came to Jones on the rebound chart he never got it because his 1-0 range (meaning no roll on the 6-sided die), meaning Winslow always go the offensive rebound, while when the rebound chart came to the chart gave the rebound chart gave Winslow the chance as the offensive small forward he also got it with his 1-6. 

Note on the scoresheet that every other possession the ball automatically goes to a defensive player, so when Duke missed on possession 27 and 6 the rebound they went to Jones. However, Winslow towered over Jones to grab eight rebounds to those two and this included sticking it back in at the half for a 34-32 lead, and twice again in the second half. But the true killer was when Okafor grabbed an offensive rebound and kicked it out to Winslow, who hit a 3-pointer due to s shot off an offensive rebound lowering the 20-sided die one number which meant a "3" was a 3-pointer made instead of a 2-pointer  to give Duke a 65-58 lead with 12 possessions (6:26) left in the game. 

Marquette would rally to cut it within 71-73, and fouled Amile Jefferson twice at the end for a chance at the win. Jefferson is only a 1-11 on the 20-sided die to make a free throw (55%) but he hit all four at the end to pull out the 75-73 win. Here is the box score and photo of the sheet, followed by the entire Sweet 16 match-ups.  

Pos	Stam	14-seed Marquette 2023 (73)	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls	Ht	NBA	Actual Stats
1-PG	42	Tyler Kolek	13	3	1	0	1	6'3		12.9 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 7.5 Ast
2-SG	27	Stevie Mitchell	6	1	3	0	1	6'2		7.1 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast
3-SF	37	Kameron Jones	14	4	2	0	2	6'4	NBA	15.1 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.0 Ast
4-PF	36	Olivier-Maxence Prosper	11	5	0	0	1	6'8	NBA	12.5 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.7 Ast
5-C	40	Oso Ighodaro	10	7	1	3	4	6'9	NBA	11.4 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 3.3 Ast
1-PG	4	Sean Jones	6	1	0	0	1	5'10		3.6 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 1.1 Ast
2-SG	15	Chase Ross	2	1	1	0	1	6'4		4.6 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.8 Ast
3-SF	15	David Joplin	7	2	1	0	4	6'7		9.2 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast
4-PF	0	Keeyan Itejere	2	1	0	0	1	6'9		0.8 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
5-C	4	Ben Gold	2	1	0	0	1	6'11		2.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.2 Ast
	220	Total Turnovers 12	73	26	9	3	17
Pos	Stam	6-seed Duke 2015 (75)	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls	Ht	NBA	Actual Stats
1-PG	44	Tyus Jones	10	2	3	0	1	6'1	NBA	11.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.6 Ast
2-SG	44	Quinn Cook	8	2	1	0	2	6'2	NBA	15.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.6 Ast
3-SF	37	Justise Winslow	23	10	3	1	2	6'6	NBA	12.6 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
4-PF	37	Jahlil Okafor	8	9	0	0	4	6'11	NBA	17.3 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast
5-C	24	Amile Jefferson	8	3	0	3	1	6'9	NBA	6.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast
1-PG	4	Rasheed Sulaimon	2	1	0	0	1	6'5		7.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast
2-SG	20	Matt Jones	4	2	1	0	1	6'5		6.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
3-SF	5	Grayson Allen	2	1	1	0	1	6'4	NBA	4.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast
4-PF	5	Marshall Plumlee	6	1	0	0	1	7'0	NBA	2.2 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
5-C	0	Semi Ojeleye	2	1	0	0	1	6'8	NBA	3.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
	220	Total Turnovers 12	73	32	9	4	15			Game Turnovers 12

Sweet 16 - New Value Add Basketball Teams

East Region: #1 Seed Connecticut 2023 with  Adama Sanogo beat #17 seed Duke 2022 with Wendell Moore, 80-77 to advance to East Region title game. The opponent will be the winner of ...

#8 seed Gonzaga 2023 Drew Timme vs. #9 Kansas 2022 Ochai Agbaji.

South Region: #4 seed Tennessee 2023 Santiago Vescovi vs. #13 Texas 2023 Marcus Carr with winner facing winner of surprise #5 seed Colorado 2021 McKinley Wright vs #21 seed Miami 2023 Norchad Omier.

Midwest Region: #2 seed Rutgers 1976 Phil Sellers won 84-74 over #18 seed Stanford 2008 Brook Lopez and will play in Midwest title game against winner of ...

#7 seed SMU 2017 Semi Ojeleye vs. #10 Xavier 2023 Jack Nunge.

West Region - Duke 2015 Justise Winslow won 75-73 over Marquette 2023 Tyler Kolek and gets winner of ...

 #3 Houston Quentin Grimes vs. #19 UNC 2022 Armando Bacot .

Big East Returns Most Dominant All-Americans in Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Big East Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Adama Sanogo	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Jordan Hawkins	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Souley Boum	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
2nd T-Big East Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Joel Soriano	St. John's	7.95	120.1	98	18-15, Poss 22.4%
Oso Ighodaro	Marquette	7.93	123.8	96.7	2-seed, 29-7, Poss 18.2%
Ed Croswell	Providence	7.79	123.3	100.8	11-seed, 21-12, Poss 21.3%
Alex Karaban	Connecticut	7.77	124	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 32 in 2024
Jack Nunge	Xavier	7.73	120.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10, Poss 21.9%
HM-Big East Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Eric Dixon	Villanova	7.25	116.3	99.7	17-17, Poss 25.6%
Zach Freemantle	Xavier	6.04	110.9	98.6	3-seed, 27-10, Poss 24.7%
Umoja Gibson	DePaul	5.87	110.9	105.2	10-23 (PG), Poss 24.1%

Above is a very late All-Big East Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Simply put, the Big East returns the most dominant conference based on having four of the top 10 returning players in the country according to the Value Add Basketball calculations. The Big East not only has four of the top 10 returning players in the country, but just misses having three different teams with two of the top 10 returning players.

Cam Spencer transferred to UConn as a top 10 All-American, and joins Ryan Karaban who just misses the top 10. 

Oso Ighodaro just missed joining Marquette's All-American point guard Tyler Kolek or Marquette would have two of the top 10 returning players.

Finally, while he hasn't shown last year's dominance yet, Steven Ashworth transferred to Creighton to join Ryan Kalkbrenner to give them two of the top 10 returning players.

Its easy to see why UConn, Marquette and Creighton were ranked in Pomeroy's top 8 until Creighton was upset on Thanksgiving. Amazing that the conference that seemed most decimated by realignment a decade ago is the most stable the past year. Then it appeared the conference was the loser and the football programs were ditching them to go from a Power 6 to a Power 5 - while instead it is the Pac-12 that is disappearing as the Big East remains as the basketball-only member of the new Power 5.

There is still talk of UConn leaving as the conference seems to have the best chance to win another title to grab a 4th title in 7 years, but even if that happens it seems Dayton (who may have been the team cost a title by the 2020 Covid cancellation) seems likely to be pulled in to keep the conference at 11. Here are the seeds from last year and current Pomeroy rankings.

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed23	Rnk24
Butler	BE	BE	BE		77
Connecticut	BE	BE	BE	4	3
Creighton	BE	BE	BE	6	13
DePaul	BE	BE	BE		168
Georgetown	BE	BE	BE		174
Marquette	BE	BE	BE	2	6
Providence	BE	BE	BE	11	47
Seton Hall	BE	BE	BE		55
St. John's	BE	BE	BE		71
Villanova	BE	BE	BE		19
Xavier	BE	BE	BE	3	33

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

The Newest Marquette Team ... MU 2023 BE Champ 90, UCLA 2021 F4 Team 81

Scroll to the bottom for the account of the steals and 3-pointers that led to Marquette 2023 minor upset over UCLA 2021. The three paragraphs below were written before the game as a preview. The updated scores and rankings of the all-time great college basketball teams in the value add game appear here.

Fans who only watch March Madness would assume the UCLA 2021 team that took Gonzaga all the way to overtime in the Final Four would have much better player cards than the Marquette 2023 team that was frustrated by Tom Izzo in a second round loss. And because the Value Add Basketball Game weighs tournament performance disproportionately heavy compared to regular season games, the UCLA cards to appear slightly better. 

However, there is a reason www.kenpom.com still ranked the 2023 Marquette team as slightly better than the 2021 UCLA team. For starters, a very poor 13-14 Marquette 2021 team actually led at UCLA with less than 10 minutes to play in the game before losing. As of selection Sunday, Marquette 2023 was a much better team than UCLA 2021. The Bruins had lost four straight games to finish 4th in the Pac-12 and be eliminated in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament as barely snuck into the tournament as an 11-seed in the play-in game. Meanwhile Marquette had won nine straight to win the Big East Regular season and tournament, including a second win of the season against eventual champ UConn. 

It makes for an interesting game as we start with the blank box score that we will fill in after the game and then add details below.

Marquette 2023	PPG	Ht	Gets Ball	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls
Tyler Kolek	13.1	6'3	PG-1&6	14	3	1	0	2
Stevie Mitchell	7.1	6'2	SG-2	8	4	5	0	4
Kam Jones	15.1	6'4	SF-3&7	19	3	0	0	1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	12.4	6'8	PF-4&8	21	7	0	0	2
Oso Ighodaro	11.5	6'9	C-5	8	3	0	1	2
Sean Jones	3.7	5'10	PG-1&6	2	1	0	0	1
Chase Ross	4.7	6'4	SG-2	9	2	0	0	3
David Joplin	9.4	6'7	SF-3&7	7	2	0	0	1
Keeyan Itejere	0.8	6'9	PF-4	dnp
Ben Gold	2.7	6'11	C-5	2	1	0	0	1
Marquette 10 Turnovers				90	26	6	1	17
UCLA 2021	PPG		Gets Ball	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls
Tyger Campbell	10.4	5'11	PG-1&6	13	2	1	0	2
Johnny Juzang	16.0	6'6	SG-2&7	23	3	1	0	2
Jules Bernard	10.3	6'6	SF-3	9	1	0	0	1
Jaime Jaquez	12.3	6'6	PF-4	16	4	0	0	2
Cody Riley	10.0	6'9	C-5&8	10	9	0	3	2
David Singleton	4.7	6'4	PG-1	4	1	0	0	1
Jake Kyman	3.0	6'6	C-5	2	1	0	0	2
Jalen Hill	6.5	6'10	C-5	dnp
Chris Smith	12.6	6'9	SG-2&6	dnp
Jaylen Clark	2.5	6'5	C-5	4	1	0	1	1
UCLA 12 Turnovers				81	22	2	4	13

Here are the actual cards

Marquette 2023 pulls off 90-81 win over UCLA 2021

Kam Jones had the best turnover rating and Marquette always has the best steal rating on the court whether it is Stevie Mitchell or Chase Ross, and that was the difference in Marquette pulling away after trailing 45-48 with 30 possessions (18:04) left to play.

Ross plays from possession 44-28 then Stevie Mitchell from 27-1 in our game, a key because both have the highest steal rating in the game of 11-16, 31 which means they can often steal the ball from anyone on the court. ross hit a 3-pointer to pull within 45-46 before turning it over to Mitchell for the duration.

A couple of possessions later Kam Jones combination of no turnovers on his card (the turnover range is 41-46 with the average player turning it over 41-43 but Mitchell with the rare NONE) and his big 3-pointer range of 1-4. With 27 possessions to go, a "41" would have been a turnover for 95% of all players, but Kam avoided the turnover and drained a 3-pointer to tie the game 50-50. He did the same thing later, meaning twice he turned what would be 0 points for almost every player to 3. 

With Marquette trailing 52-53 Kam missed a shot, but Kolak grabbed an offensive rebound and passed to Omax for a dunk. The next possession Omax hit a 3, and then on the following Mitchell had one of his 5 steals and passed ahead to Kolak who hit a 3-pointer to give Marquette a 60-55 lead they would not give up.

Marquette wins to advance to the round of 21 in our tournament of new teams.

As an alum, I did create seven Marquette teams, more than any other team. Here is their record to date in our game:

Marquette 1955 (Terry Rand)  lost to  Gonzaga  (Drew Timme) 2023 (74 to 86)

Marquette 1971 (Jim Chones)  lost to  Duke (Shane Battier) 2001 (69 to 80)

Marquette 1971 (Jim Chones)  beat  Kansas  (Danny Manning) 1988 (67 to 58)

Marquette 1971 (Jim Chones)  lost to  LSU  (Shaquille O'Neal) 1992 (74 to 80)

Marquette 1977 (Butch Lee)  beat  Utah  (Andre Miller) 1998 (79 to 69)

Marquette 1977 (Butch Lee)  lost to  UTEP-Texas Western  1966 (Bobby Joe Hill) 1966 (53 to 54)

Marquette 1994 (Jim McIlvaine)  will play  Seton Hall  2020 (Myles Powell) 2020

Marquette 2003 (Dwyane Wade)  beat  Creighton  (Doug McDermott) 2014 (84 to 83)

Marquette 2003 (Dwyane Wade)  lost to  Georgetown (Roy Hibbert) 2007 (62 to 74)

Marquette 2003 (Dwyane Wade)  lost to  West Virginia  (Kevin Jones) 2010 (74 to 77)

Marquette 2011 (Jimmy Butler)  lost to  Dayton  (Obi Toppin) 2020 (82 to 87)

Marquette 2023 (Tyler Kolak)  beat  UCLA  2021 (Jaime Jaquez) 2021 (90 to 81)

Overall Marquette 4-7 against all-time great teams

The oldest MU team ... Timme's Zags Hold Off Furious Rally by 1955 Marquette Squad

During Marquette star Terry Rand's one stretch resting on the bench, Drew Timme took full advantage to lead a 14-0 run. Timme started with a bucket and foul for a traditional 3-point play to give the Zags their first lead at 27-26. Malachi Smith then hit two 3-pointers, then Anton Watson followed with another traditional and one bucket and foul shot, and Timme finished with a dunk to make it 39-26.

Marquette's first team to make the Elite 8, in 1955, later put on a huge rally to cut the score to 62-58 but they could get no closer - eventually running out of steam to lose 86-74. 

The rally was started by a bucket and foul by Rand, a steal and fast break score by Russ Wittenberger, then Jerry Hopfensperger had both an offensive rebound and score and then a steal and pass to Rube Schulz for a basket. Rand grabbed two of his game high 13 rebounds and scored on the second one to cut the lead to 62-58, but the Zags eventually pulled away to advance in our tournament.

As a Marquette grad, I did create more Marquette teams than any other team in the Value Add Basketball Game, with the squad from 1955, 1971, 1977, 2003 and 2011 teams combining for a 4-7 record against some of the greatest teams of all time. Jim McIlvaine's 1994 squad will play Myles Powell and the 2020 Seton Hall team whose tournament was cancelled for Covid, and last year's 2023 Marquette squad led by Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek will face the 2021 UCLA Final Four team that actually barely beat a Marquette team with a losing record at UCLA early that season.

WE play matchups a bit, so we do not always have a player at the same position they played on the court. but they get the ball on the 1-5 roll that lines up with their position, plus a 6, 7 or 8 as appropriate.
 

Marquette 1955	PPG	Ht	Gets Ball	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls
Don Bugalski	12.6	6'0	PG-1&6	11	2	2	0	2
Jerry Hopfensperger	9.3	6'4	SG-2	8	3	3	1	1
Russ Wittberger	10.1	6'6	SF-3	8	3	1	0	4
Rueben Schulz	14.5	6'6	PF-4&7	14	9	0	1	4
Terry Rand	15.9	6'9	C-5&8	15	13	0	1	4
Dennis Carroll	1.4	5'10	PG-1	2	1	0	0	1
Pat O'Keefe	7	5'10	SG-2	2	1	0	0	1
Bob Van Vooren	4.3	6'0	SF-3	2	2	0	0	1
Bob Walczak	9.5	6'0	PF-4&7	8	3	0	1	2
Dale Sevcik	2.3	6'5	C-5	4	2	1	1	1
MU Turnovers 12	86.9	72.1	sos 1.6	74	39	7	5	21
Gonzaga 2023	PPG	Ht	Gets Ball	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls
Rasir Bolton	10.1	6'3	1-PG	11	2	2	0	4
Nolan Hickman	7.7	6'2	2-SG	3	1	1	0	1
Drew Timme	21.2	6'10	3-SF 6&7	24	5	0	1	2
Anton Watson	11.1	6'8	4-PF	9	8	1	0	4
Julian Strawther	15.2	6'7	5-C	20	12	0	1	2
Hunter Sallis	4.5	6'5	1-PG	2	1	0	2	1
Dominick Harris	1.5	6'3	2-SG 6	2	1	0	0	1
Malachi Smith	8.7	6'4	3-SF	11	2	0	0	1
Ben Gregg	5.1	6'10	4-PF 7	2	1	0	0	1
Efton Reid	2.1	6'11	5-C	2	1	0	0	1
Zags Turnovers 12	87.2	73.4	sos 8.1	86	34	4	4	18

for a traditional 3-point play to give the Zags their first lead at 27-26. Malachi Smith then hit two 3-pointers, then Anton Watson followed with another traditional and one bucket and foul shot, and Timme finished with a dunk to make it 39-26.

Marquette's first team to make the Elite 8, in 1955, later put on a huge rally to cut the score to 62-58 but they could get no closer - eventually running out of steam to lose 86-74. 

The rally was started by a bucket and foul by Rand, a steal and fast break score by Russ Wittenberger, then Jerry Hopfensperger had both an offensive rebound and score and then a steal and pass to Rube Schulz for a basket. Rand grabbed two of his game high 13 rebounds and scored on the second one to cut the lead to 62-58, but the Zags eventually pulled away to advance in our tournament.

As a Marquette grad, I did create more Marquette teams than any other team in the Value Add Basketball Game, with the squad from 1955, 1971, 1977, 2003 and 2011 teams combining for a 4-7 record against some of the greatest teams of all time. Jim McIlvaine's 1994 squad will play Myles Powell and the 2020 Seton Hall team whose tournament was cancelled for Covid, and last year's 2023 Marquette squad led by Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek will face the 2021 UCLA Final Four team that actually barely beat a Marquette team with a losing record at UCLA early that season.
 

Marquette 1955	PPG	Ht	Gets Ball	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls
Don Bugalski	12.6	6'0	PG-1&6	11	2	2	0	2
Jerry Hopfensperger	9.3	6'4	SG-2	8	3	3	1	1
Russ Wittberger	10.1	6'6	SF-3	8	3	1	0	4
Rueben Schulz	14.5	6'6	PF-4&7	14	9	0	1	4
Terry Rand	15.9	6'9	C-5&8	15	13	0	1	4
Dennis Carroll	1.4	5'10	PG-1	2	1	0	0	1
Pat O'Keefe	7	5'10	SG-2	2	1	0	0	1
Bob Van Vooren	4.3	6'0	SF-3	2	2	0	0	1
Bob Walczak	9.5	6'0	PF-4&7	8	3	0	1	2
Dale Sevcik	2.3	6'5	C-5	4	2	1	1	1
MU Turnovers 12	86.9	72.1	sos 1.6	74	39	7	5	21
Gonzaga 2023	PPG	Ht	Gets Ball	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls
Rasir Bolton	10.1	6'3	1-PG	11	2	2	0	4
Nolan Hickman	7.7	6'2	2-SG	3	1	1	0	1
Drew Timme	21.2	6'10	3-SF 6&7	24	5	0	1	2
Anton Watson	11.1	6'8	4-PF	9	8	1	0	4
Julian Strawther	15.2	6'7	5-C	20	12	0	1	2
Hunter Sallis	4.5	6'5	1-PG	2	1	0	2	1
Dominick Harris	1.5	6'3	2-SG 6	2	1	0	0	1
Malachi Smith	8.7	6'4	3-SF	11	2	0	0	1
Ben Gregg	5.1	6'10	4-PF 7	2	1	0	0	1
Efton Reid	2.1	6'11	5-C	2	1	0	0	1
Zags Turnovers 12	87.2	73.4	sos 8.1	86	34	4	4	18

Best 25 College Basketball Teams on the Road

Look for the feature story on the CBS Sports Site Dodds on Sports that will run down the top road teams in the country.

This blog is a link for anyone who wants to look further down the list of the best road teams this year, or for the fellow stat geeks who want to read the way kenpom calculations are made - below these lists.
 

Rnk	Top 25 Road Warriors	SoS	Wins	Loss	Margin	Away kenpom
1	Kansas	20.3	3	0	15.0	35.3
2	Houston	13.3	3	0	19.0	32.3
3	UCLA	14.0	4	0	16.8	30.8
4	Alabama	19.0	3	0	9.0	28.0
5	Tennessee	12.7	2	1	14.0	26.7
6	UConn	18.8	2	2	5.3	24.0
7	Oklahoma St.	16.8	2	2	6.8	23.5
8	Rutgers	24.7	1	2	-2.3	22.3
9	Marquette	17.6	3	2	3.6	21.2
10	West Virginia	16.2	2	3	4.0	20.2
11	Providence	11.8	4	1	8.0	19.8
12	Kansas St.	16.5	2	2	3.0	19.5
13	Purdue	14.3	3	0	5.0	19.3
14	San Diego St.	10.7	3	0	8.7	19.3
15	Wisconsin	20.7	2	1	-1.3	19.3
16	Creighton	27.7	0	3	-8.3	19.3
17	Gonzaga	16.3	4	1	4.4	19.2
18	Xavier	11.5	4	0	7.3	18.8
19	Virginia	15.0	2	2	3.8	18.8
20	Missouri	18.0	2	1	0.0	18.0
21	Penn St.	18.7	1	2	-0.7	18.0
22	Seton Hall	23.0	2	4	-6.3	16.7
23	Utah St.	5.7	3	0	10.7	16.3
24	New Mexico	10.5	3	1	5.5	16.0
25	Auburn	12.3	1	2	2.7	15.0
Rnk	Others Qualified	SoS	Wins	Loss	Margin	Away kenpom
26	Indiana	24.0	1	3	-9.3	14.8
27	Memphis	16.5	1	3	-1.8	14.8
28	Iowa St.	19.3	2	1	-4.7	14.7
29	Clemson	10.5	3	1	3.8	14.3
30	Utah	10.8	3	1	3.3	14.0
31	FL Atlantic	5.4	4	1	7.6	13.0
32	Sam Houston St.	11.3	5	3	1.1	12.4
33	North Carolina	15.8	1	3	-3.5	12.3
34	Washington St.	14.9	1	7	-6.1	8.8
35	Nebraska	17.2	2	4	-9.5	7.7
36	Va Tech	10.0	0	3	-3.0	7.0
37	Kentucky	24.7	0	3	-18.7	6.0
38	Weber St.	8.9	2	5	-5.4	3.4
39	Southern Illinois	4.5	4	4	-1.4	3.1
40	Colorado St.	16.2	1	4	-13.2	3.0
41	Duke	12.3	1	2	-11.3	1.0
42	Northwestern St.	6.8	4	5	-8.9	-2.1
Rnk	Only 1 or 2 road games	SoS	Wins	Loss	Margin	Away kenpom
	Texas	20.5	2	0	5.5	26.0
	Saint Mary's	24.5	1	1	-1.0	23.5
	Ohio St.	19.5	1	1	3.5	23.0
	TCU	20.0	2	0	2.5	22.5
	Oklahoma	18.0	0	2	-0.5	17.5
	Arizona	17.5	1	1	-3.0	14.5
	Texas Tech	20.0	0	1	-6.0	14.0
	Arkansas	17.5	1	1	-8.0	9.5
	Illinois	18.0	0	2	-9.0	9.0
	Baylor	22.5	0	2	-20.5	2.0

These would be the standings (give or take a rounding error) if teams were rated using Ken Pomeroy's method but only based on the road games they played this year. Too often a team looks really dominant at home in a few early games, and then cannot handle hostile crowds. On the flip side, the teams that can handle the pressure of a hostile crowd seem more likely to handle the pressure of March Madness.

The 42 teams we did calculated fit one of two categories:

1. One of the 30 teams who were both in the overall www.kenpom.com Top 40 AND played at least three road games, or

2. One of the 12 teams who are not in www.kenpom.com top 40 but have won a road game at a Top 40 team AND have played at least three road games.

It is very unlikely any other teams we did not calculate would be in the Top 20.

There are 10 teams who are in the top 40 at www.kenpom.com but have NOT played three road games yet, so we list them at the bottom. The Texas Longhorns ranking of 26.0 in the bottom set of teams would rank them 6th in our road Top 25, but based on only two games we want to wait until they get their tough road tests in Big 12 player shortly.

How we simulated KenPom's rankings:

SoS - the strength of schedule is the average www.kenpom.com AdjME for the team's road games today rounded to the nearest number. The number on this table is then increased by +4 to give credit for the four point edge to the home team opponent, and we did include "semi-road" games but in that case only two points were added to the SoS.

For example, our #1 road team Kansas played road games at Missouri, West Virginia and Texas Tech, and those three teams average a 16.3 AdjEM at www.kenpom.com. However, because these are all true road games, we add +4 to each and the average comes out to 20.3. 

Not only did Kansas beat all three, but they averaged beating them by 15.0 points, so the kenpom system adds the SoS and the margin of the scores, and together the www.kenpom.com rating if only road games were counted would be 35.3 - making Kansas the best team in the country in this small sample.

Shaq Faces Last Marquette Team to Beat a Top 10 by +25

 On December 13, 1971, #2 Marquette beat #9 Michigan 81-52. Tuesday an unranked Marquette team beat #6 Baylor 96-70, the most lopsided win for a Marquette team against a Top 10 team since that game 51 years ago.

That made Jim Chones 3-0 at Marquette. He would finish 49-1, with only a one-point loss to Ohio State in the tournament that year in a game in which All-American guard Dean Meminger fouled out with five minutes to go. Marquette destroyed Kentucky in the consolation game to finish 25-1, then started the next season 21-0 before Chones left for the ABA - having gone 46-1 in his college career.

Our next look at that 1971 Marquette team is when Chones faces a pretty worthy big man opponent - Shaq! Here are pages 66 and 68 of the google doc with the 135 great all-time Value Add Basketball teams.

One rule item from years back, the "3-point" shot for both Shaq and Chones is actually a chance for a traditional 3-point play. If this comes up, they make a 2-pointer and are fouled by the opposing player for a chance at a 3-point play. Both have only a 55% chance at actually making the 3-pointer to complete the 3-point play, since they are both 1-11 Free Throw Made, meaning 12-20 is a missed free throw.

College Hoops 4th Best Conference History - Current Big East (Original BE Could Have Been Best)

The domination in our game of Villanova team that dominated the title game in 2018 for one of two titles in there years and the two UConn teams that won titles in a six year stretch is no surprise.

The biggest surprise in our first 188 all-time great games has been DePaul's 1980 squad, which stunned Kareem and UCLA in route to a 3-0 record. We assume they will end up coming down to earth, but for right now they have helped the top six teams in the Big East to a 17-7 mark and the ranking as the 4th best conference in our game so far.

Add Patrick Ewing's 1984 Georgetown team, and you can remember how the actual 1980s Big East that launched ESPN legitimately challenges the ACC for title of the top conference in the country.

You may ask why Marquette merits four teams in the game is simple - I went there and am completely biased and even wrote a book on Marquette basketball once. Obviously a great program, but so far all four teams rank slightly below average of the all-time great teams. However, most of us would argue the actual all-time great team out of Marquette was Jim Chones squad in the early 70s that went 49-1 with only a last second loss to Ohio State in the tournament, and then loss Chones to the ABA before No. 2 Marquette could make a run at the UCLA dynasty. Of course none of team Marquette teams ranked from 8 to 10 were actually in the Big East - the 2011 team led by Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder and was in the Big East.

The Creighton 2020 team actually won our 2020 tournament we decided to play after Covid cancelled the actual tournament. They beat Duke for the title, but their six wins in that tournament did not include games against any teams in the All-Time great team.  

Rnk	Great Team	Year	Key Player	W	L	Pts	Allow	Rate
	Top 6 Big East teams			17	7	73.1	68.2	4.7
1	Villanova	2018	Mikal Bridges	7	2	79.4	70.3	10.8
2	Connecticut	2004	Ben Gordon	4	2	73.5	64.0	7.0
3	DePaul	1980	Mark Aguirre	3	0	80.3	67.7	5.6
4	Connecticut	1999	Richard Hamilton	0	1	60.0	64.0	4.0
5	Seton Hall	1989	John Morton	1	1	78.0	78.0	0.5
6	Georgetown	1984	Patrick Ewing	2	1	67.3	65.3	0.4
7	Georgetown	2007	Roy Hibbert	1	2	76.7	75.3	-1.4
8	Marquette	1971	Jim Chones	1	1	68.0	69.0	-1.8
9	Marquette	2003	Dwyane Wade	2	2	73.3	74.0	-2.4
10	Marquette	1977	Butch Lee	1	1	66.0	61.5	-2.8
11	St. John's	1985	Chris Mullin	0	1	75.0	76.0	-2.8
12	DePaul	1945	George Mikan	0	1	51.0	55.0	-5.2
13	Marquette	2011	Jimmy Butler	0	1	82.0	87.0	-7.0
14	Villanova	1985	Ed Pinckney	0	1	65.0	72.0	-9.2
15	Creighton	2014	Doug McDermott	0	3	66.3	80.0	-9.7
16	Creighton	2020	Ty-Shon Alexander	0	1	72.0	106.0	-10.2
17	Butler	2010	Gordon Hayward	0	3	54.7	76.3	-13.0

We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 

Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

Best Power Forwards in College Basketball This Season

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "power forward" the player who behind the team's "center" has some combination of the most defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height, but typically the fewest assists and steals. A great center or power forward will typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard, because the guards typically need to get the ball to a power forward or center close to the basket for a closer shot.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power forward's raw value add is lowered by multiplying it by 0.95 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen centers in college basketball, starting with the most talented future NBA prospect, Auburn's Jabari Smith, who improves Auburn by 7.14 points per game - meaning there is a better than 50/50 chance Auburn would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points. This calculations were run before Auburn's win against Vanderbilt Wednesday, during which Smith had his first 30-point game, so he is gaining value. 

In his case, he improves the Auburn offense by 4.44 points per game, while his defensive rating of -2.70 indicates he takes three to four points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement power forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen power forwards through games of February 15.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Power Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
7	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	7.14	SEC	6'10"	Fr
11	Paolo Banchero #5	Duke	6.69	ACC	6'10"	Fr
18	Justin Lewis #10	Marquette	6.28	BE	6'7"	Fr
23	Tyson Degenhart #2	Boise St.	6.13	MWC	6'7"	Fr
27	Azuolas Tubelis #10	Arizona	5.9	P12	6'11"	Fr
39	Dillon Jones #2	Weber St.	5.35	BSky	6'6"	Fr
44	Sadaidriene Hall #3	Stephen F. Austin	5.12	WAC	6'5"	Fr
46	Aboubacar Traore #25	Long Beach St.	4.96	BW	6'5"	Fr
51	Jalen Wilson #10	Kansas	4.77	B12	6'8"	So
52	Keshad Johnson #0	San Diego St.	4.68	MWC	6'7"	Jr

Top Overall Power Forwards (4)

A voter would certainly be justified in placing Smith, likely the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, as the 1st Team All-American Power Forward. However, if the entire season including early games were rated evenly, the 1st and 2nd Team All-American should really go to two Big Ten stars. Ohio State's EJ Liddell may have been the most valuable player over the course of the last two seasons, while Keegan Murray of Iowa has been able to explode now that his teammate and National Player of the Year Luka Garza has graduated.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Power Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Keegan Murray #15	Iowa	10.86	B10	6'8"	So
2	EJ Liddell #32	Ohio St.	9.93	B10	6'7"	Jr
3	Justin Bean #34	Utah St.	9.69	MWC	6'7"	Sr
4	Tari Eason #13	LSU	9.25	SEC	6'8"	So
5	David Roddy #21	Colorado St.	8.84	MWC	6'6"	Jr
6	Christian Braun #2	Kansas	7.54	B12	6'6"	Jr
7	Jabari Smith #10	Auburn	7.14	SEC	6'10"	Fr
8	Vince Williams #10	VCU	6.9	A10	6'6"	Sr
9	Jaime Jaquez #24	UCLA	6.81	P12	6'7"	Jr
10	Jake LaRavia #0	Wake Forest	6.77	ACC	6'8"	Jr
11	Paolo Banchero #5	Duke	6.69	ACC	6'10"	Fr
12	Race Thompson #25	Indiana	6.49	B10	6'8"	Jr
13	Dane Goodwin #23	Notre Dame	6.49	ACC	6'6"	Jr
14	Paul Atkinson #20	Notre Dame	6.45	ACC	6'9"	Sr
15	Timmy Allen #0	Texas	6.44	B12	6'6"	Sr
16	Drew Timme #2	Gonzaga	6.41	WCC	6'10"	Jr
17	Fabian White #35	Houston	6.36	Amer	6'8"	Sr
18	Justin Lewis #10	Marquette	6.28	BE	6'7"	Fr
19	Alex Morales #2	Wagner	6.28	NEC	6'6"	Sr
20	Dereon Seabron #1	N.C. State	6.25	ACC	6'7"	So
21	Ryan Hawkins #44	Creighton	6.24	BE	6'7"	Sr
22	Justyn Mutts #25	Virginia Tech	6.17	ACC	6'7"	Sr
23	Tyson Degenhart #2	Boise St.	6.13	MWC	6'7"	Fr
24	Bryce Hamilton #13	UNLV	6.13	MWC	6'4"	Sr
25	Aher Uguak #30	Loyola Chicago	6.07	MVC	6'7"	Sr
26	Abu Kigab #24	Boise St.	5.96	MWC	6'7"	Sr
27	Azuolas Tubelis #10	Arizona	5.9	P12	6'11"	Fr
28	Anthony Holland #25	Fresno St.	5.9	MWC	6'5"	Jr
29	Collin Welp #40	UC Irvine	5.88	BW	6'9"	Sr
30	Ron Harper #24	Rutgers	5.81	B10	6'6"	Sr
31	Jeriah Horne #41	Tulsa	5.81	Amer	6'7"	Sr
32	Keshawn Justice #14	Santa Clara	5.76	WCC	6'7"	Sr
33	Jalen Hill #1	Oklahoma	5.62	B12	6'6"	Jr
34	Anton Watson #22	Gonzaga	5.6	WCC	6'8"	Jr
35	Jayden Gardner #1	Virginia	5.6	ACC	6'6"	Sr
36	Noah Horchler #14	Providence	5.59	BE	6'8"	Sr
37	Marcus Weathers #50	SMU	5.49	Amer	6'5"	Sr
38	Ben Vander Plas #5	Ohio	5.46	MAC	6'8"	Sr
39	Dillon Jones #2	Weber St.	5.35	BSky	6'6"	Fr
40	Taylor Funk #33	Saint Joseph's	5.28	A10	6'8"	Sr
41	Brady Manek #45	North Carolina	5.27	ACC	6'9"	Sr
42	Jalen Bridges #11	West Virginia	5.26	B12	6'7"	So
43	Isaac Mushila #10	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	5.14	Slnd	6'5"	Jr
44	Sadaidriene Hall #3	Stephen F. Austin	5.12	WAC	6'5"	Fr
45	Jermaine Samuels #23	Villanova	5.08	BE	6'7"	Sr
46	Aboubacar Traore #25	Long Beach St.	4.96	BW	6'5"	Fr
47	Julian Champagnie #2	St. John's	4.93	BE	6'8"	Jr
48	Jabari Walker #12	Colorado	4.89	P12	6'9"	So
49	Kris Murray #24	Iowa	4.8	B10	6'8"	So
50	Jalen Adaway #33	St. Bonaventure	4.79	A10	6'5"	Sr

Big East Breakdown of Value Add Basketball Player Rankings

Our last post covered the top 25 players in the country based on www.valueaddbasketball.com, and this CBS piece focuses in on the top 15 players and the other top NBA prospects in the Big East. Read that piece here.