Showing posts with label Creighton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Creighton. Show all posts

Thursday, March 9, 2023

10 Young NCAA Teams Could Stay Intact for 2025 March Madness


Pictures by John Pudner at Madison Square Garden March 9, 2023. LEFT - the last moment of the score being tied at 70-70 in overtime as Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek's shot prepares to go through the hoop for the game-winner. Right - Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Kam Jones box out in the war under the boards moments earlier in the overtime.

We know teams can no longer stay together for three or four seasons due to the transfer portal and new NCAA rules allowing players to earn money for the use of their names and likenesses or making endorsements, or accepting gifts from boosters. However, there are 10 teams projected to be in the NCAA tournament field of 68 who could keep the majority of their team together through 2025 - led by Marquette who plays only freshmen and sophmores so could have the same team in tact in 2025.

Tyler Kolek gave a great answer after the game when I asked him about being one of the youngest three teams of the 68 in the tournament, and you can read that story by clicking here. I based that on Ken Pomeroy's youth rankings and the teams projected to be in the tournament - however in researching I realized Pomeroy has changed his criteria and counts only years in Division I basketball as experience.

This means juniors and seniors with a couple of years of JUCO or Division II ball under their belts are treated as freshmen - which doesn't seem the best measure of experience. 

Instead we ran the numbers on what percent of a team's time on the floor are by players who could play another two years or more. If a player is a senior, junior or a one and done then they will not still be playing in two years.

The following are the results, with a link to the Basketball Reference page for players mentioned.

Marquette is not only the only team that could stay completely in tact for two more seasons, but the next youngest team in the tournament by this measure are Howard and Duke, who gets 68% of their time from freshman and sophomores who could be around for two more years. Obviously with the transfer portal and the big money going to players who end up with the Texas Longhorns or other huge programs will likely break up teams - but here are the stats of what is possible followed by the line-ups for each team. 

Back for 2 yrs   Back for 1   Youngest Team              Seed     Sr.       Jr.        1&done
100%100%Marquette2.960%0%0%
68%84%Duke6.488%16%8%
68%76%Howard1624%8%0%
60%74%Yale13.1726%14%0%
58%68%Southeast Missouri St.1632%10%0%
56%56%Charleston11.9544%0%0%
56%74%Illinois8.2426%18%0%
56%80%VCU12.1120%24%0%
55%70%Creighton6.2218%15%12%
53%69%Louisiana13.7131%16%0%


Here is each team for youngest to 10th youngest. Each player's jersey number, class or if they are a one and done projected to go in the NBA draft, and then the percent of the time they are playing that position (e.g. Kolek plays point guard for Marquette 87% of the time, while David Joplin plays 19% as the small forward and 22% as the power forward).

1. Marquette                 Starters                                                    Back-ups                          
Point Guards11 Tyler Kolek, So, 0.8722 Sean Jones, Fr, 0.12
Shooting GuardsStevie Mitchell, So, 0.565 Chase Ross, Fr, 0.23
Small Forwards1 Kam Jones, So, 0.6823 David Joplin, So, 0.19
Power Forwards12 Olivier-Maxence Prosper, So, 0.7123 David Joplin, So, 0.22
Centers13 Oso Ighodaro, So, 0.7321 Ben Gold, Fr, 0.22

2. Duke                           Starters                                        Back-ups                              
Point Guards3 Jeremy Roach, Jr, 0.815 Tyrese Proctor, Fr, 0.14
Shooting Guards5 Tyrese Proctor, Fr, 0.6613 Jacob Grandison, Sr, 0.17
Small Forwards25 Mark Mitchell, Fr, 0.490 Dariq Whitehead, Fr, 0.34
Power Forwards30 Kyle Filipowski, 1&d, 0.4425 Mark Mitchell, Fr, 0.32
Centers1 Dereck Lively, Fr, 0.5615 Ryan Young, Sr, 0.21


3. Howard                      Starters                                        Back-ups                           
Point Guards3 Elijah Hawkins, So, 0.761 Khalil Robinson, Sr, 0.22
Shooting Guards0 Marcus Dockery, So, 0.6511 Ose Okojie, Fr, 0.16
Small Forwards5 Jelani Williams, Sr, 0.5434 Bryce Harris, So, 0.18
Power Forwards22 Shy Odom, Fr, 0.3534 Bryce Harris, So, 0.27
Centers24 Jordan Wood, Jr, 0.4412 Kobe Dickson, Sr, 0.41

Keep in mind Yale my not win the Ivy League to make the tournament. We went through the 68 teams projected to make the tournament as of March 9 in the morning.

4. Yale                       Starters                                     Back-ups                              
Point Guards2 Bez Mbeng, So, 0.5224 Yassine Gharram, So, 0.46
Shooting Guards3 August Mahoney, Jr, 0.72 Bez Mbeng, So, 0.19
Small Forwards4 John Poulakidas, So, 0.6913 Michael Feinberg, Sr, 0.15
Power Forwards35 Isaiah Kelly, Sr, 0.4533 Jack Molloy, So, 0.27
Centers15 EJ Jarvis, Sr, 0.681 Danny Wolf, Fr, 0.2


5. SE MO St.StartersBack-ups
Point Guards1 Phillip Russell, So, 0.893 Aquan Smart, So, 0.07
Shooting Guards0 Israel Barnes, Sr, 0.393 Aquan Smart, So, 0.34
Small ForwardsChris Harris, Sr, 0.560 Israel Barnes, Sr, 0.29
Power Forwards33 Dylan Branson, So, 0.53Chris Harris, Sr, 0.29
Centers14 Nate Johnson, Sr, 0.4721 Josh Earley, Jr, 0.46


6. CharlestonStartersBack-ups
Point Guards11 Ryan Larson, Sr, 0.721 Jaylon Scott, Sr, 0.26
Shooting Guards2 Reyne Smith, So, 0.6715 Pat Robinson, Sr, 0.24
Small Forwards3 Dalton Bolon, Sr, 0.3815 Pat Robinson, Sr, 0.28
Power Forwards25 Ben Burnham, So, 0.4121 Jaylon Scott, Sr, 0.34
Centers10 Ante Brzovic, So, 0.5935 Babacar Faye, So, 0.33


7. IllinoisStartersBack-ups
Point Guards0 Terrence Shannon, Sr, 0.523 Jayden Epps, Fr, 0.34
Shooting Guards20 Ty Rodgers, Fr, 0.371 Sencire Harris, Fr, 0.28
Small Forwards15 RJ Melendez, So, 0.3724 Matthew Mayer, Sr, 0.24
Power Forwards24 Matthew Mayer, Sr, 0.5533 Coleman Hawkins, Jr, 0.29
Centers33 Coleman Hawkins, Jr, 0.5842 Dain Dainja, So, 0.39


8. VCUStartersBack-ups
Point Guards1 Adrian Baldwin, Jr, 0.8523 Jayden Nunn, So, 0.12
Shooting Guards23 Jayden Nunn, So, 0.522 Zeb Jackson, Jr, 0.37
Small Forwards24 Nick Kern, So, 0.5335 David Shriver, Sr, 0.31
Power Forwards0 Jamir Watkins, So, 0.4430 Brandon Johns, Sr, 0.36
Centers4 Jalen DeLoach, So, 0.630 Brandon Johns, Sr, 0.34


9. CreightonStartersBack-ups
Point Guards2 Ryan Nembhard, So, 0.8523 Trey Alexander, So, 0.08
Shooting Guards23 Trey Alexander, So, 0.485 Francisco Farabello, Sr, 0.31
Small Forwards55 Baylor Scheierman, Sr, 0.6123 Trey Alexander, So, 0.26
Power Forwards24 Arthur Kaluma, 2&d, 0.5813 Mason Miller, Fr, 0.3
Centers11 Ryan Kalkbrenner, Jr, 0.7433 Fredrick King, Fr, 0.21


10. LouisianaStartersBack-ups
Point Guards0 Themus Fulks, So, 0.71Michael Thomas, So, 0.28
Shooting Guards5 Jalen Dalcourt, Sr, 0.522 Kentrell Garnett, So, 0.39
Small Forwards13 Greg Williams, Sr, 0.584 Kobe Julien, So, 0.28
Power Forwards1 Joe Charles, So, 0.5234 Terence Lewis, Sr, 0.46
Centers21 Jordan Brown, Jr, 0.8235 Isaiah Richards, So, 0.15

Sunday, November 20, 2022

College Hoops 4th Best Conference History - Current Big East (Original BE Could Have Been Best)

The domination in our game of Villanova team that dominated the title game in 2018 for one of two titles in there years and the two UConn teams that won titles in a six year stretch is no surprise.

The biggest surprise in our first 188 all-time great games has been DePaul's 1980 squad, which stunned Kareem and UCLA in route to a 3-0 record. We assume they will end up coming down to earth, but for right now they have helped the top six teams in the Big East to a 17-7 mark and the ranking as the 4th best conference in our game so far.

Add Patrick Ewing's 1984 Georgetown team, and you can remember how the actual 1980s Big East that launched ESPN legitimately challenges the ACC for title of the top conference in the country.

You may ask why Marquette merits four teams in the game is simple - I went there and am completely biased and even wrote a book on Marquette basketball once. Obviously a great program, but so far all four teams rank slightly below average of the all-time great teams. However, most of us would argue the actual all-time great team out of Marquette was Jim Chones squad in the early 70s that went 49-1 with only a last second loss to Ohio State in the tournament, and then loss Chones to the ABA before No. 2 Marquette could make a run at the UCLA dynasty. Of course none of team Marquette teams ranked from 8 to 10 were actually in the Big East - the 2011 team led by Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder and was in the Big East.

The Creighton 2020 team actually won our 2020 tournament we decided to play after Covid cancelled the actual tournament. They beat Duke for the title, but their six wins in that tournament did not include games against any teams in the All-Time great team.  

RnkGreat TeamYear     Key PlayerW   L  Pts     Allow  Rate
 Top 6 Big East teams  17773.168.24.7
1Villanova2018Mikal Bridges7279.470.310.8
2Connecticut2004Ben Gordon4273.564.07.0
3DePaul1980Mark Aguirre3080.367.75.6
4Connecticut1999Richard Hamilton0160.064.04.0
5Seton Hall1989John Morton1178.078.00.5
6Georgetown1984Patrick Ewing2167.365.30.4
7Georgetown2007Roy Hibbert1276.775.3-1.4
8Marquette1971Jim Chones1168.069.0-1.8
9Marquette2003Dwyane Wade2273.374.0-2.4
10Marquette1977Butch Lee1166.061.5-2.8
11St. John's1985Chris Mullin0175.076.0-2.8
12DePaul1945George Mikan0151.055.0-5.2
13Marquette2011Jimmy Butler0182.087.0-7.0
14Villanova1985Ed Pinckney0165.072.0-9.2
15Creighton2014Doug McDermott0366.380.0-9.7
16Creighton2020Ty-Shon Alexander0172.0106.0-10.2
17Butler2010Gordon Hayward0354.776.3-13.0

We invented the Value Add Basketball Game, and since then have grown it to to 135 teams of all-time great teams and players. We have played 188 games to date, and 63,000 unique visitors have clicked on the game. 
Seven current conferences have at least six all-time great teams in the game. We decided to rank those conferences based on the average rating of their top six teams so far in our games against other teams.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

Saturday, July 17, 2021

Nova Post 1st Ever 100 pt VABG Game Behind Suns' Bridges and Bucks' DiVincenzo

Since we invented the Value Add Basketball Game in February 2019, we have played a couple of hundred games, and had never had a team score 100 points in regulation until today. The game took 44 minutes to play - with the first card flipped at 1 p.m. and final card at 1:44 p.m.

The team that accomplished it was the only team with two players in the NBA Finals, Phoenix Suns' starter Mikal Bridges and injured Milwaukee Buck Donte DiVincenzo, from our 2-seed and the National Champion 2018 Villanova team.

The victim was the 2020 Creighton team, which does have a very poor defense (Adj. Def 0, worse than the average team's -3) but is happy to simply outscore opponents. The Blue Jays team in the game today actually won our 68-team Value Add Basketball Game championship after Covid cancelled their real Big East tournament game at halftime and March Madness. Ironically, that week I had breakfast with their point guard Marcus Zagarowski's parents as few blocks from Madison Square Gardne in disbelief that the hottest team in basketball (they had improved from 23rd to 7th in one month in the AP poll) would not have a chance at a real run as Covid collapses the world around us.

While one group of former Creighton players participated in The Basketball Tournament (TBT) airing on ESPN, as the Omaha Blue Crew, the VABG Creighton 2020 player cards were in our 8-team NBA Finals college alumni tournament due to Phoenix Sun Ty-shon Alexander, one if the trio of great 3-point shooting guards along with Zegarowski and Mitch Ballock. Those three all have the highest possible endurance of 44, meaning they play all 44 possessions of a VABG game.

At 1 p.m. Central today we flipped the first card in 7-seed Creighton's game against fellow Big East team and 3-seed Villanova, the 2018 national champs.

Zegarowski and Alexander combined for 4 first half 3-pointers and then Alexander hit another one to open the second half to give the Blue Jays a 39-34 lead in the upset big against the 2-seed Nova.

And then Villanova started to look like the team that blitzed Michigan in the 2018 National Title game with a 44-17 first half before cruising to victory. DiVincenzo hit a 3-pointer, then immediately stole the ball and fed it to center Spellman on a dunk plus foul to give Villanova their first lead of the game 41-39 with 18:30 to play. At the 8:17 mark Bridges had a steal, and was fouled on a dunk, hitting the free throw to make it 74-51 Nova less than 12 minutes after they trailed.

As usual., Nova won the turnover battle big 17-7, and doubled Creighton in the second half 72-36 for the most scoring in a half ever in a VABG game for an offensive efficiency of 1.95 points per trip (33 possessions in the second half, and there were a total of four extra in this game for fouls and steal/fast breaks in the final 9 possessions.

It was the first time a team every scored 100 points in regulation in a VABG game, with the final score of 106-72.

Villanova 2018 represents the Big East in our semifinal against another Big Ten foe, the 2015 Wisconsin team of Frank Kaminsky that stunned the Kentucky team that many considered the greatest team in history in the Final Four that year.

The other semifinal is an all-ACC game, with the 2019 champion Virginia Cavaliers facing the only upset winner of our opening rounds and only 2020 team, the 5-seed Louisville 2020 team upset Chris Paul's 4-seed Wake Forest 2005 team 80-79.





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