Scheyer Leads List of 125 Greatest 21st Century Players as He Leads Duke to Elite 8

Scroll down for the best 125 college players of this century:

In this 2011 piece, Sports Illustrated featured the Value Add Basketball rating system which I had developed. The system was designed to determine how many points each college basketball player was worth as opposed to a replacement player - defined as a 7th or 8th man on a mid-level team.

As I stated in a 2024 TV interview, while Anthony Davis was the greatest all-around college player of the century in my view, the most valuable college players are often not the one-and-done freshman like Davis, because all players improve so much between freshman and sophomore seasons, and continue to improve a little bit after that. By our calculations, Jon Scheyer was the most valuable college player from the seasons in which we had the stats necessary to calculate the figures (2002-2023, and the stats are no longer available so 2023 will be the last season).

These stats indicated that if Scheyer missed his whole season, and a standard mid-level college 7th man took his place in a 7-man rotation, then Duke would have scored 9 points fewer a game (AdjO of 9.11) and allowed two points more per game (-2.03) and after a couple of other minor adjustments shift each score by 14 points. Now in fact, Scheyer would not have been replaced by the 7th man from a mid-level team - the 7th man for Duke was a freshman Mason Plumlee who was worth 2 points per game already, and by the next year was worth 5 points a game and by his senior year 9.66 points a game. So probably if Scheyer had not been able to play Duke's replacement would have been strong enough that they would have been closer to 10 points a game worse.

If that played out then Duke without Scheyer would have still been elite, but probably 27-11 instead of 35-5, because they would have then also lost in the semifinal of the ACC tournament and then lose in the Elite 8 to Baylor rather than winning both.

Because the website and the 4,000+ players it ranked every year is starting to have some glitches I wanted to post the most valuable 125 players from 2002 to 2023. One great testimony to how well Duke has always been coached by Coach K (Mike Krzyzewski) and now Scheyer himself is that Duke has an incredible nine of the most valuable 125 players from these 22 seasons – more than twice any other school. The only other schools with more than one are:

4 of greatest 125 players from 2002 to 2023 – Connecticut, Iowa, Kansas, Marquette.

3 of greatest 125 - Georgetown, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Providence, Utah, Villanova, Wisconsin.

2 of greatest 125 – Alabama, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Michigan St., North Carolina, North Carolina St., Notre Dame, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Oregon, San Diego St., UCLA, Utah St., Wake Forest, Washington.

The Big East does nudge out the ACC 23 to 20 on the top 125 list - fitting for the two conferences whose teams have won 16 of the 22 titles this Century and have half of the Elite 8 teams this season.

Ryan Gomes of Providence is the only player to be worth more than 10 points per game in three different seasons, and the following players were worth more than 10 points in two separate seasons - Delon Wright (Utah), JJ Redick (Duke),  Luka Garza (Iowa), Shelden Williams (Duke) and Troy Bell (Boston College).

This also led to the free Value Add Basketball Game with player cards from more than 200 men's and women's teams from the 1943 Wyoming squad to the 2024 James Madison team - with Bill Walton's UCLA team beating Michael Jordan's UNC team in our first all-time tournament championship.

Scheyer starts with the most important martin for any player - getting tons of steals and almost never turning the ball over in the other end.

The “dunk” range on the card is really an adjustment for level of competition played and the differences in eras, and the calculations showed how many ways Scheyer dominated even though he wouldn’t jump off the chart of leader boards in pure points and rebounds per game, avoiding fouling, and drawing fouls.

Overall Pomeroy calculates he was the third best offensive player that year behind only Jimmy Butler of Marquette and Tim Abromaitis of Notre Dame – AND he stayed on the court for an incredible 91.7% of all minutes. Also while his 3-pointers made range of 1-3 (out of 20 on which something can happen, a shot or being fouled) might not seem that high, for 2010 it was because teams shot far fewer 3-pointers. 

In fact, in 2010 he was one of only six players to hit 110 three-pointers – and no power conference player hit more than 116 (Donald Sims - Appalachian State 123, LaceDarius Dunn – Baylor  116, Jon Diebler - Ohio State 116, Chris Warren – Mississippi 111 and Jacob Pullen - K-State 110. Put it all together, and Scheyer had the best college season of the century as he and Kyle Singler led Duke to the title.

When he was announced as the successor to the legend Coach K, my immediate reaction was that Duke was bound to continue on deep runs now that they had tapped the most valuable player of the century to teach a new generation of Duke players to be the most efficient players they could be.

After the Sweet 16 win over Houston, I was able to quickly tell him he topped our ratings for the first time in person.

Rank	Year	MVP 2002-2023	Ht	Cl	Team	AdjO	AdjD	Value	Conf
1	2010	Jon Scheyer	6'5	Sr	Duke	9.11	-2.03	14.35	ACC
2	2019	Zion Williamson	6'7	Fr	Duke	10.53	-3.55	14.08	ACC
3	2012	Anthony Davis	6'10	Fr	Kentucky	7.29	-5.06	13.81	SEC
4	2004	Devin Harris	6'3	Jr	Wisconsin	7.83	-1.82	13.48	B10
5	2003	Mike Sweetney	6'8	Jr	Georgetown	11.8	-4.21	13.45	BE
6	2008	Michael Beasley	6'9	Fr	Kansas St.	8.43	-3.99	13.25	B12
7	2023	Zach Edey	7'4	Jr	Purdue	125.9	94.5	13.17	B10
8	2014	Shabazz Napier	6'1	Sr	Connecticut	5.37	-2.16	13.05	Amer
9	2015	Delon Wright	6'5	Sr	Utah	6.84	-4.2	13.04	P12
10	2014	Delon Wright	6'5	Jr	Utah	4.99	-2.4	12.83	P12
11	2003	David West	6'9	Sr	Xavier	10.39	-4.78	12.74	A10
12	2011	Jordan Taylor	6'1	Jr	Wisconsin	9.56	0	12.71	B10
13	2015	Karl-Anthony Towns	6'11	Fr	Kentucky	5.92	-5.38	12.5	SEC
14	2005	Andrew Bogut	6'1	So	Utah	7.13	-3.32	12.44	MWC
15	2012	Jae Crowder	6'6	Sr	Marquette	6.24	-4.89	12.43	BE
16	2017	Sindarius Thornwell	6'5	Sr	South Carolina	10.13	-4.04	12.37	SEC
17	2022	Keegan Murray	6'8	So	Iowa	9.77	-2.54	12.31	B10
18	2019	Dedric Lawson	6'9	Jr	Kansas	8.93	-3.28	12.21	B12
19	2013	Trey Burke	6'0	So	Michigan	8.61	-0.82	12.19	B10
20	2011	Kemba Walker	6'1	Jr	Connecticut	8.41	-2.19	12.19	BE
21	2015	Frank Kaminsky	7'0	Sr	Wisconsin	8.41	-2.92	12.18	B10
22	2006	Shelden Williams	6'9	Fr	Duke	6.67	-5.27	12.17	ACC
23	2022	Oscar Tshiebwe	6'9	Jr	Kentucky	7.66	-4.47	12.13	SEC
24	2008	Kevin Love	6'10	Fr	UCLA	7.99	-3.33	12.08	P10
25	2019	Matt Rafferty	6'8	Sr	Furman	8.61	-3.46	12.07	SC
26	2002	Steve Logan	6'1	Sr	Cincinnati	12.62	-2.13	12.06	CUSA
27	2007	Kevin Durant	6'9	Fr	Texas	7.41	-4.01	12.04	B12
28	2009	Ty Lawson	5'11	Jr	North Carolina	7.55	-1.4	11.74	ACC
29	2019	Cassius Winston	6'1	Jr	Michigan St.	10.38	-1.35	11.74	B10
30	2003	Troy Bell	6'1	Sr	Boston College	12.54	-1.4	11.71	BE
31	2009	Blake Griffin	6'10	So	Oklahoma	7	-3.78	11.59	B12
32	2003	Dwyane Wade	6'4	So	Marquette	10.42	-3.37	11.59	CUSA
33	2017	Frank Mason	5'11	Sr	Kansas	11.87	-1.25	11.51	B12
34	2002	Reece Gaines	6'6	Jr	Louisville	12.63	-1.41	11.48	CUSA
35	2020	Malachi Flynn	6'1	Jr	San Diego St.	9.18	-2.24	11.42	MWC
36	2003	Josh Howard	6'6	Sr	Wake Forest	10.06	-3.49	11.38	ACC
37	2023	Adama Sanogo	6'9	Jr	Connecticut	122.6	90.9	11.37	BE
38	2008	Tyler Hansbrough	6'9	Jr	North Carolina	8.72	-1.94	11.37	ACC
39	2003	Ryan Gomes	6'7	So	Providence	9.86	-3.61	11.31	BE
40	2005	Spencer Nelson	6'1	Sr	Utah St.	6.91	-1.59	11.3	WAC
41	2019	Brandon Clarke	6'8	Jr	Gonzaga	7.97	-3.33	11.3	WCC
42	2003	Carmelo Anthony	6'8	Fr	Syracuse	9.77	-3.62	11.26	BE
43	2023	Marcus Sasser	6'2	Sr	Houston	123.4	90.4	11.25	Amer
44	2021	Evan Mobley	7'0	Fr	USC	7.72	-3.44	11.16	P12
45	2004	Luke Jackson	6'7	Sr	Oregon	7.08	-1.16	11.16	P10
46	2003	Brett Blizzard	6'3	Sr	North Carolina Wilmington	11.05	-2.22	11.14	CAA
47	2017	Josh Hart	6'5	Sr	Villanova	9.59	-2.98	11.1	BE
48	2021	Luka Garza	6'11	Sr	Iowa	9.86	-1.23	11.09	B10
49	2009	DeJuan Blair	6'7	So	Pittsburgh	7	-3.32	11.08	BE
50	2003	Adam Hess	6'7	Jr	William & Mary	14.05	0.86	11.08	CAA
51	2019	CJ Massinburg	6'3	Sr	Buffalo	9.81	-1.25	11.06	MAC
52	2016	Thomas Walkup	6'4	Sr	Stephen F. Austin	11.24	-3.18	11.05	Slnd
53	2014	Jordan Adams	6'5	So	UCLA	4.99	-1.23	11.04	P12
54	2014	Sean Kilpatrick	6'4	Sr	Cincinnati	5.75	-0.63	11.03	Amer
55	2019	Grant Williams	6'7	Jr	Tennessee	8.8	-2.23	11.03	SEC
56	2021	Kendric Davis	5'11	Jr	SMU	9.19	-1.82	11.01	Amer
57	2004	Chris Paul	6'1	Fr	Wake Forest	6.61	-0.96	10.97	ACC
58	2014	TJ Warren	6'8	So	North Carolina St.	5.59	-1.18	10.96	ACC
59	2014	Billy Baron	6'2	Sr	Canisius	7.01	0.85	10.95	MAAC
60	2019	Ja Morant	6'3	So	Murray St.	9.39	-1.51	10.9	OVC
61	2013	Otto Porter	6'8	So	Georgetown	5.91	-3.85	10.89	BE
62	2005	Mike Harris	6'1	Sr	Rice	6.53	-2.6	10.87	WAC
63	2015	Gary Payton	6'3	Jr	Oregon St.	2.63	-6.57	10.87	P12
64	2014	Doug McDermott	6'8	Sr	Creighton	8.3	1.63	10.81	BE
65	2023	Ryan Kalkbrenner	7'1	Jr	Creighton	133.4	93.2	10.8	BE
66	2020	Payton Pritchard	6'2	Sr	Oregon	9.9	-0.88	10.78	P12
67	2011	Norris Cole	6'2	Sr	Cleveland St.	6.13	-2.18	10.78	Horz
68	2004	Ryan Gomes	6'7	Jr	Providence	6.57	-2.32	10.75	BE
69	2019	Ty Jerome	6'5	Jr	Virginia	8.01	-2.74	10.75	ACC
70	2006	JJ Redick	6'5	Sr	Duke	9.33	-0.7	10.74	ACC
71	2023	Steven Ashworth	6'1	Jr	Utah St.	127.7	98.9	10.72	MWC
72	2020	Devon Dotson	6'2	So	Kansas	8	-2.71	10.7	B12
73	2014	Trevor Releford	6'0	Sr	Alabama	5.06	-0.91	10.66	SEC
74	2003	Jameer Nelson	6'0	Jr	St. Joseph's	9.07	-3.63	10.66	A10
75	2004	Julius Hodge	6'7	Jr	North Carolina St.	6.05	-1.73	10.61	ACC
76	2006	Nick Fazekas	6'11	Jr	Nevada	7.25	-3.12	10.56	WAC
77	2014	Xavier Thames	6'3	Sr	San Diego St.	5.37	-0.53	10.56	MWC
78	2019	Myles Powell	6'2	Jr	Seton Hall	9.07	-1.49	10.56	BE
79	2013	Victor Oladipo	6'5	Jr	Indiana	5.71	-3.23	10.53	B10
80	2014	Marcus Smart	6'4	So	Oklahoma St.	3.38	-2.48	10.48	B12
81	2018	Jevon Carter	6'2	Sr	West Virginia	8.97	-3.12	10.47	B12
82	2017	Monte Morris	6'3	Sr	Iowa St.	10.56	-1.53	10.47	B12
83	2018	Mikal Bridges	6'7	Jr	Villanova	9.01	-2.66	10.46	BE
84	2022	Collin Gillespie	6' 3	Sr	Villanova	8.45	-1.74	10.42	BE
85	2006	Brandon Roy	6'6	Sr	Washington	7.81	-1.39	10.4	P10
86	2011	Jared Sullinger	6'9	Fr	Ohio St.	6.81	-2.65	10.4	B10
87	2016	Buddy Hield	6'4	Sr	Oklahoma	11.81	-1.74	10.39	B12
88	2020	Luka Garza	6'11	Jr	Iowa	8.53	-1.84	10.38	B10
89	2004	David Hawkins	6'1	Sr	Temple	5.97	-1.11	10.37	A10
90	2023	Tylor Perry	5'11	Sr	North Texas	124.3	94.1	10.37	CUSA
91	2008	Mario Chalmers	6'1	Jr	Kansas	5.34	-2.85	10.35	B12
92	2015	Jerian Grant	6'5	Sr	Notre Dame	7.12	-1.45	10.33	ACC
93	2017	Bonzie Colson	6'5	Jr	Notre Dame	9.2	-3.23	10.33	ACC
94	2015	Aaron White	6'9	Sr	Iowa	6.55	-2.78	10.33	B10
95	2005	Danny Granger	6'1	Sr	New Mexico	4.83	-3.84	10.32	MWC
96	2004	Travis Diener	6'1	Jr	Marquette	7.43	0.9	10.32	BE
97	2003	Chris Williams	6'3	Sr	Ball St.	12.9	0.61	10.32	MAC
98	2005	Shelden Williams	6'9	Fr	Duke	4.13	-4.52	10.3	ACC
99	2022	Terrell Brown	6'3	Sr	Washington	8.55	-1.74	10.29	P12
100	2015	Corey Walden	6'2	Sr	Eastern Kentucky	5.12	-3.4	10.28	OVC
101	2020	Markus Howard	5'11	Sr	Marquette	10.13	-0.12	10.25	BE
102	2005	JJ Redick	6'5	Jr	Duke	7.04	-0.57	10.25	ACC
103	2018	Yante Maten	6'8	Sr	Georgia	10.52	-2.11	10.24	SEC
104	2006	Quincy Douby	6'1	Jr	Rutgers	7.67	-1.36	10.23	BE
105	2006	Adam Morrison	6'1	Jr	Gonzaga	9.03	0	10.23	WCC
106	2023	Brandon Miller	6'9	Fr	Alabama	117	88.2	10.23	SEC
107	2019	RJ Barrett	6'7	Fr	Duke	8.05	-2.19	10.23	ACC
108	2007	Roy Hibbert	7'2	Jr	Georgetown	6.77	-2.93	10.22	BE
109	2019	Shamorie Ponds	6'1	Jr	St. John's	8.91	-1.31	10.22	BE
110	2012	Draymond Green	6'7	Sr	Michigan St.	4.11	-4	10.19	B10
111	2002	Carlos Boozer	6'9	Jr	Duke	10.27	-3.01	10.17	ACC
112	2017	Nigel Williams-Goss	6'3	Jr	Gonzaga	7.93	-3.45	10.16	WCC
113	2002	Troy Bell	6'1	Jr	Boston College	10.62	-1.79	10.15	BE
114	2006	Paul Millsap	6'1	Jr	Louisiana Tech	5.26	-4.68	10.13	WAC
115	2014	KJ McDaniels	6'6	Jr	Clemson	3.47	-2.75	10.13	ACC
116	2013	Erick Green	6'3	Sr	Virginia Tech	8.51	0.93	10.12	ACC
117	2008	Stephen Curry	6'2	So	Davidson	7.59	-1.89	10.12	SC
118	2004	Anthony Dobbins	6'1	Sr	Richmond	3.16	-4.72	10.12	A10
119	2018	Keita Bates-Diop	6'7	Jr	Ohio St.	8.25	-3.46	10.06	B10
120	2020	Christian Vital	6'2	Sr	Connecticut	7.01	-3.05	10.06	Amer
121	2005	Ryan Gomes	6'7	Sr	Providence	6.61	-1.32	10.05	BE
122	2020	Jordan Ford	6'1	Sr	Saint Mary's	9.95	-0.08	10.03	WCC
123	2019	Jordan Murphy	6'7	Sr	Minnesota	7.02	-3	10.02	B10
124	2017	Luke Kennard	6'6	So	Duke	10.64	-0.89	10.01	ACC
125	2020	Jalen Smith	6'10	So	Maryland	6.85	-3.16	10.01	B10

Winslow 23/10 Mismatch Gives 2015 Duke 75-73 Win vs. Marquette 2023

 Kam Jones sent Marquette to our Sweet 16 of new Value Add Basketball Game teams as one of the only players who could have avoided a turnover on a "41" roll to then hit a 3-pointer at the horn to beat Creighton 94-93 and set up a game with Duke's 2015 national champs. 

While Marquette had a disappointing 2nd round loss to Michigan State last year and Duke exploded to the title in 2015 - heading into that tournament Duke was ranked #5 by the AP and #6 at www.kenpom.com while basically the same team right now is ranked #3 by the AP and #5 at www.kenpom.com after Tuesday night's win vs. Southern - which I attended.

The mismatch appears to be based on NBA talent, where Duke 2015 may be the only team in our game with eight NBA players. However, even this is interesting since we mark players as "NBA" if they either played in the league or are forecast to go in one of the next two NBA drafts at NBADraft.net.  Marquette had only one NBA player in the game in Olivier-Maxence Prosper, however that changed recently. Kam Jones moved into a projected 2025 2nd round pick, and then this week he was moved up to a projected 2024 projected pick and Oso Ighodaro shot all the way to the top of the 2nd round in the 2024 draft and on the verge of being projected as a 1st rounder.

In this game, Marquette led only a few times in a back-and-forth stretch starting with 22 possessions left (13:11) when Olivier-Maxence Prosper scored to make it 52-50 Marquette, through the 16th possession left when Justise Winslow stole a pass and scored on the fast break to put Duke ahead for good 57-56.

As great as Jones' card is, a mismatch was created because Marquette starts three pure guards with little rebounding, while the 6'6 powerful Winslow is one of three overpowering frontline Duke players (6'11 Jahlil Okafor and 6'9 Amile Jefferson are the others even after 7'0 Marshall Plumlee plays the opening minutes. When a defensive rebound opportunity came to Jones on the rebound chart he never got it because his 1-0 range (meaning no roll on the 6-sided die), meaning Winslow always go the offensive rebound, while when the rebound chart came to the chart gave the rebound chart gave Winslow the chance as the offensive small forward he also got it with his 1-6. 

Note on the scoresheet that every other possession the ball automatically goes to a defensive player, so when Duke missed on possession 27 and 6 the rebound they went to Jones. However, Winslow towered over Jones to grab eight rebounds to those two and this included sticking it back in at the half for a 34-32 lead, and twice again in the second half. But the true killer was when Okafor grabbed an offensive rebound and kicked it out to Winslow, who hit a 3-pointer due to s shot off an offensive rebound lowering the 20-sided die one number which meant a "3" was a 3-pointer made instead of a 2-pointer  to give Duke a 65-58 lead with 12 possessions (6:26) left in the game. 

Marquette would rally to cut it within 71-73, and fouled Amile Jefferson twice at the end for a chance at the win. Jefferson is only a 1-11 on the 20-sided die to make a free throw (55%) but he hit all four at the end to pull out the 75-73 win. Here is the box score and photo of the sheet, followed by the entire Sweet 16 match-ups.  

Pos	Stam	14-seed Marquette 2023 (73)	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls	Ht	NBA	Actual Stats
1-PG	42	Tyler Kolek	13	3	1	0	1	6'3		12.9 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 7.5 Ast
2-SG	27	Stevie Mitchell	6	1	3	0	1	6'2		7.1 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast
3-SF	37	Kameron Jones	14	4	2	0	2	6'4	NBA	15.1 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.0 Ast
4-PF	36	Olivier-Maxence Prosper	11	5	0	0	1	6'8	NBA	12.5 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.7 Ast
5-C	40	Oso Ighodaro	10	7	1	3	4	6'9	NBA	11.4 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 3.3 Ast
1-PG	4	Sean Jones	6	1	0	0	1	5'10		3.6 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 1.1 Ast
2-SG	15	Chase Ross	2	1	1	0	1	6'4		4.6 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.8 Ast
3-SF	15	David Joplin	7	2	1	0	4	6'7		9.2 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast
4-PF	0	Keeyan Itejere	2	1	0	0	1	6'9		0.8 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
5-C	4	Ben Gold	2	1	0	0	1	6'11		2.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.2 Ast
	220	Total Turnovers 12	73	26	9	3	17
Pos	Stam	6-seed Duke 2015 (75)	Pts	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fls	Ht	NBA	Actual Stats
1-PG	44	Tyus Jones	10	2	3	0	1	6'1	NBA	11.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.6 Ast
2-SG	44	Quinn Cook	8	2	1	0	2	6'2	NBA	15.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.6 Ast
3-SF	37	Justise Winslow	23	10	3	1	2	6'6	NBA	12.6 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
4-PF	37	Jahlil Okafor	8	9	0	0	4	6'11	NBA	17.3 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast
5-C	24	Amile Jefferson	8	3	0	3	1	6'9	NBA	6.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast
1-PG	4	Rasheed Sulaimon	2	1	0	0	1	6'5		7.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast
2-SG	20	Matt Jones	4	2	1	0	1	6'5		6.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
3-SF	5	Grayson Allen	2	1	1	0	1	6'4	NBA	4.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast
4-PF	5	Marshall Plumlee	6	1	0	0	1	7'0	NBA	2.2 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
5-C	0	Semi Ojeleye	2	1	0	0	1	6'8	NBA	3.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
	220	Total Turnovers 12	73	32	9	4	15			Game Turnovers 12

Sweet 16 - New Value Add Basketball Teams

East Region: #1 Seed Connecticut 2023 with  Adama Sanogo beat #17 seed Duke 2022 with Wendell Moore, 80-77 to advance to East Region title game. The opponent will be the winner of ...

#8 seed Gonzaga 2023 Drew Timme vs. #9 Kansas 2022 Ochai Agbaji.

South Region: #4 seed Tennessee 2023 Santiago Vescovi vs. #13 Texas 2023 Marcus Carr with winner facing winner of surprise #5 seed Colorado 2021 McKinley Wright vs #21 seed Miami 2023 Norchad Omier.

Midwest Region: #2 seed Rutgers 1976 Phil Sellers won 84-74 over #18 seed Stanford 2008 Brook Lopez and will play in Midwest title game against winner of ...

#7 seed SMU 2017 Semi Ojeleye vs. #10 Xavier 2023 Jack Nunge.

West Region - Duke 2015 Justise Winslow won 75-73 over Marquette 2023 Tyler Kolek and gets winner of ...

 #3 Houston Quentin Grimes vs. #19 UNC 2022 Armando Bacot .

ACC Boast Most Talent Despite Rough 3 Years as Value Add Rankings Return

All-ACC	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Jordan Miller	Miami FL	8.17	127.2	101.2	5-seed, 29-8, nba 48 in 2023
Hunter Tyson	Clemson	7.92	124	98.4	23-11, nba 37 in 2023
Matthew Marsh	Wake Forest	7.87	146.6	103.1	19-14, Poss 11.2%
Dereck Lively	Duke	7.76	131.1	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, nba 12 in 2023
2nd T-ACC	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Armando Bacot	North Carolina	7.65	114.3	97.2	20-13, Poss 27.2%
Kihei Clark	Virginia	7.40	107.6	94.5	4-seed, 25-8 (PG), Poss 22.1%
PJ Hall	Clemson	7.16	112.7	98.4	23-11, Poss 29.1%
Norchad Omier	Miami FL	7.09	119	101.2	5-seed, 29-8, Poss 23%
Tyree Appleby	Wake Forest	7.05	112	103.1	19-14 (PG), Poss 28.7%
HM-ACC	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jarkel Joiner	N.C. State	6.82	116.6	100	11-seed, 23-11, Poss 23%
Casey Morsell	N.C. State	6.75	127.2	100	11-seed, 23-11, Poss 13.8%
Jack Clark	N.C. State	6.72	122.8	100	11-seed, 23-11, Poss 16.3%
Isaiah Wong	Miami FL	6.54	116	101.2	5-seed, 29-8, nba 55 in 2023
Federiko Federiko	Pittsburgh	6.54	127.3	101.3	11-seed, 24-12, Poss 13.6%
Jayden Gardner	Virginia	6.36	108	94.5	4-seed, 25-8, Poss 24.9%
Kyle Filipowski	Duke	6.20	105	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, nba 12 in 2024
Grant Basile	Virginia Tech	6.19	115.3	103.4	19-15, Poss 26.8%
Greg Elliott	Pittsburgh	6.05	121.8	101.3	11-seed, 24-12, Poss 14.9%
Maliq Brown	Syracuse	5.98	127.6	105.5	17-15, Poss 13.5%
Jesse Edwards	Syracuse	5.70	117.9	105.5	17-15, nba 40 in 2024
Nate Laszewski	Notre Dame	5.49	121.7	108.4	11-21, Poss 18.7%
Justyn Mutts	Virginia Tech	4.88	111.2	103.4	19-15, Poss 24.1%
Terquavion Smith	N.C. State	4.26	104.3	100	11-seed, 23-11, Poss 29.2%

Above is a very late All-ACC team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Despite the stunning drop in the ACC's ratings at www.kenpom.com after years of dominance, the Value Add Basketball Rankings once again calculate the conference has the most basketball talent. The names above show the 24 elite players in the conference, more than any other conference and only the Big Ten is even close with 21. Duke and UNC seem primed for contention again, as long as the Tar Heels figure out what in the world happened last year when they went from No. 1 in the country to not in the tournament, and Armando Bacot when from the Value Add Basketball top returning player in the country to 2nd team all-ACC above. 

After decades of dominance, the conference slipped to 5th in the www.kenpom.com ratings in both the 2020-21 and 2021-22 and since then have not even ranked as one of the top five conferences as the move to bring in West Coast Stanford and Cal. While UVA was the highest seed last year at 4, Duke and North Carolina certainly could return the strong ACC seeds to the tournament. While the new teams did not make the tournament last year, SMU and Stanford are top 100 and have had strong teams recently and could make a jump.

The three new additions for next year are shown here.

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed23	Rnk24
Boston College	ACC	ACC	ACC		116
California	P12	P12	ACC		187
Clemson	ACC	ACC	ACC		43
Duke	ACC	ACC	ACC	5	9
Florida St.	ACC	ACC	ACC		69
Georgia Tech	ACC	ACC	ACC		157
Louisville	ACC	ACC	ACC		146
Miami FL	ACC	ACC	ACC	5	35
N.C. State	ACC	ACC	ACC	11	54
North Carolina	ACC	ACC	ACC		16
Notre Dame	ACC	ACC	ACC		179
Pittsburgh	ACC	ACC	ACC	11	51
SMU	Amer	Amer	ACC		88
Stanford	P12	P12	ACC		70
Syracuse	ACC	ACC	ACC		128
Virginia	ACC	ACC	ACC	4	41
Virginia Tech	ACC	ACC	ACC		56
Wake Forest	ACC	ACC	ACC		78

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Coach K's Last Duke Team Rallies Past Murray State Despite Morant's 30 Points

Ja Morant and Murray State dominated Coach Mike Krzyzewski's final Duke squad most of the way. With 18 possessions to play, Morant converted an "and-one" to make him 14 of 15 from the line, give Murray State a 63-56 lead, and give Wendell Moore his 4th foul after Jeremy Roach had already fouled out guarding Morant. Morant would finish with 30 points (see complete box score at bottom,and click Value Add Basketball Game. for the free game).

The game pitted Coach K's last team which made it to the 2022 Final Four, against Ja Morant's debut on the national stage, where his team destroyed Markus Howard and Marquette in the 2019 opening round the year before Morant was name NBA Rookie of the Year. 

Morant's NBA teammate Shaq Buchanan put up 28 points, while Duke had to put three players in the game who were not scheduled to play to cover the extra possessions at Point Guard. Joe Baker had to play the final 12 possessions even though his Stamina is only 6, meaning on the last 6 possessions all numbers were adjusted on against him due to fatigue.

However, with Murray State's other eight players combining for only 20 points, Duke's balance and size wore Murray State down in the end. Mark Williams, with the ultimate 21-26, 23 blocked shot range as a 7-footer, blocked a couple of shots that would have gone into tie the game late, and grabbed a game high 12 rebounds to help Duke to a 32-25 edge on the Boards, and Duke won the last 10 minutes 29-15 to pull the game out 85-78 to advance in our 4th all-time great tournament.

This is our 4th tournament using the all-time great teams in the Value Add Basketball Game. Our first men's all-time 96 greatest teams ever, but limiting each team to one team per century, concluded with Bill Walton's UCLA defeating Michael Jordan's UNC, 66-58 (see men's game log here). In our All-Time Women's tournament we believed the UConn 2010 and 2016 teams were the best two, but in the end it was Pat Summit's 1998 Tennessee 66 defeating Louisiana Tech led by then point guard Kim Mulkey 58. We then created another 50 teams and Paul Pierce' Kansas 1997 team destroyed the last Big Ten Champion (Mateen Cleaves 2000Michigan State) 85-61 for the second title. Those two were not included in the first batch because I had gone with Wilt Chamberlain's Kansas team and Magic Johnson's Michigan State team. On the women's side Pat Summit's Tennessee beat Notre Dame for the title. This tournament is between a third batch of additional teams created to catch a few more great teams from those schools that already had a few in the game, but with a bigger focus on getting new colleges at least one team - particularly making sure any team in one of the major conferences in 2024 have at least one team from their history.

Note: And yes, I am watching the Packers' game on TV like everyone else in Wisconsin as I roll my first dice of the game. I actually find it is easier to play a different board game sport then the sport I am watching TV. Otherwise I have moments where I do things like, "wait, did I just have a double on my game or was that a double in the gam eon TV LOL."

Because we are now making slight adjustments to some teams Dunk Ranges to make the game even more precise, note that I am starting to put at the top of the team if the team's dunk ranges have been "Verified." If this is not the case, and you see an adjustment listed by the team on the top of the google doc, then you can adjust the dunk range up or down by the number specified (biggest improvement possible is a +4, while worst is a -4, but most are unchanged). 

Both teams have a mediocre 0.99 defense A (expected to allow 0.99 points per possession against other great teams in the game), which was better than we expected for Duke 2022 who we improved from a +3 to 0 on the defensive adjustment. The reason Murray State has the same defensive rating but a slightly worse +1 is that their average defensive steals range is 4.2 while Duke's is 3.2 as shown on this dunk range calculator. Therefore Murray State on average steals the ball on a 11-14 and Duke on a 11-13 giving Murray State a slightly edge on defense, so the calculator balances this by giving Duke a slightly better +0 to Murray State's +1 on allowing open drives to the basket and they come out even at a 0.99 AdjD.

The other factors are equal for both teams, which both average 3.6 on blocked shots a 3.2 on defensive rebounds. A 3.0 is the average on all three of these factors, so both are at least above average on all three other defensive factors.

However, on offense Duke's 51-57 dunk range was verified as already accurate, while it turns out Murray State was lowered to no dunk range (their cards are good enough offensively to score the 1.03 per trip, but it takes 7 in the dunk range to get Duke to average 1.13 per trip with completely average dice rolls).

When you put it all together, when Murray State has the ball there is no dunk range so we ignore all rolls of 51-66 and go to the 20-sided die for the result of the shot or foul drawn.

When you go to the Value Add Basketball Game dunk charge, Duke's 51-57 dunk range and the +1 from Murray State's defense adds up to 51-58, but that is really a 51-62 in the game since these are two 6-sided dice so there are no rolls of 57, 58, 59 or 60.

We also wrote in the possessions we plan to play each player and will add it to the cards later. We use a penny on a player in the game who only gets the ball on one if the 1-5 rolls on the 7-sided die. The dimes indicate who also gets it on a 6, 7 or 8, and at the start of the game pictured, Morant gets the ball on a 6 and 7 in addition to a 1. However Duke starts the game with only 2 dimes.meaning a "8" goes.to no one and requires a second roll, and on that roll a 6-8 is a shot clock violation.

Game Results

Pos	Murray State 2019	Actual Stats	Ht	Pts	Reb	Stls	Blks	Fls
1-PG	Ja Morant	24.5 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 10.0 Ast	6'3	30	2	2	1	3
2-SG	Leroy Buchanan	13.0 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 1.7 Ast	6'3	28	4	1	1	3
3-SF	Tevin Brown	11.8 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 2.3 Ast	6'5	4	6	1	0	2
4-PF	Darnell Cowart	10.3 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 1.1 Ast	6'8	3	3	0	0	4
5-C	K.J. Williams	7.6 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast	6'10	2	4	0	1	1
1-PG	Brion Whitley	3.0 Pts, 0.6 Reb, 0.3 Ast	6'4	0	0	0	0	1
2-SG	Jaiveon Eaves	3.5 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'2	0	0	0	0	0
3-SF	Brion Sanchious	2.7 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast	6'8	5	4	0	0	2
4-PF	Mike Davis	3.2 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.6 Ast	6'7	4	1	1	1	1
5-C	Devin Gilmore	3.6 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'6	2	1	0	1	1
	Murray St. Totals	Game Turnovers 11		78	25	5	5	18
Pos	Duke 2022	Actual Stats	Ht	Pts	Reb	Stls	Blks	Fls
1-PG	Jeremy Roach	8.6 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 3.2 Ast	6'1	4	1	1	0	5
2-SG	Wendell Moore	13.4 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 4.4 Ast	6'5	15	2	3	0	4
3-SF	Trevor Keels	11.5 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.7 Ast	6'4	16	1	2	0	1
4-PF	Paolo Banchero	17.2 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 3.2 Ast	6'10	19	8	2	2	2
5-C	Mark Williams	11.2 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 0.9 Ast	7'0	10	12	0	3	1
1-PG	Jaylen Blakes	1.0 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast	6'1	2	1	0	0	2
2-SG	Bates Jones	1.4 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'8	7	2	1	0	1
3-SF	Joey Baker	4.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'6	2	1	0	0	2
4-PF	AJ Griffin	10.4 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast	6'6	4	1	0	1	1
5-C	Theo John	2.8 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.4 Ast	6'9	6	3	0	0	2
	Duke Totals	Game Turnovers 9		85	32	9	6	21