Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Mutombo, Gtown Get Revenge on Duke 35 Years Later - Go to Final 4

 


Dikembe Mutombo helped the Hoyas to an early lead, then after a bunch of lead changes Alonzo Mourning - the second half if the greatest shot blocking duo - took over for a 79-74 win over Duke's 2015 national champs. Click here for Hawks pictured tweet.

The win avenges these Hoyas for the upset win by Duke to keep them out of the actual 1989 Final 4. The win is fitting after the finger wagging Mutombo who went onto be such an inspirational human off the court, passed away September 30, leading to tears and choked off interviews with many who knew him.

The Hoyas will advance to play a Big East rival semifinal against the 2023 champs from UConn. The 2022 champs from Kansas are in the other semifinal, but they will be underdogs against the Fab 5 from Michigan's 1993 team. As shown in the box score at the bottom of the blog, Mourning had 24 points and 10 rebounds after Mourning had 8 early points. The Hoyas defense forced 18 turnovers to only 11 forced by Duke. The Hoyas also pounded it inside with only two 3-pointers to six for Duke.

Rankings of Final 4

  • UConn moved up from 11th to 10th in our all-time rankings with their Elite 8 win, so Georgetown will still be the underdog as their win moved them up from 33rd to 26th all-time.
  • Meanwhile Kansas moved up only slightly from 49th to 45th all-time, making them the underdog against Michigan that moved up from 35th to 23rd to pass Georgetown by a couple of spots.

Of the 234 all-time great teams in the Value Add Basketball Game, these Final Four teams and the champs of our two previous all-time great tournaments are the only six undefeated teams after 301 total games between the teams.

This third batch of teams included teams from 2022 - 2024 - after the first 160 teams were created. After initially allowing no more than one team per school in each century in the first batch of 96 teams (Bill Walton's UCLA beat Michael Jordan's UNC for the title), we had some leeway in our next 64 teams (Paul Pierce Kansas won title).

Separate from these 301 games we also played the 2020 tournament cancelled by COVID, and Creighton beat Duke for that title. That year I was at the last NCAA game and watching Creighton in Madison Square Garden until the game was cancelled at halftime after the NBA canceled their season. 



Pos    Georgetown 1989     Pts 3pt 2pt FT Att RebStlBlkFlHtSeason Stats                   
1-PGCharles Smith13142273016'118.7 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 5.1 Ast
2-SGDwayne Bryant6030042016'27.2 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 3.4 Ast
3-SFJaren Jackson8032210026'412.3 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 1.8 Ast
4-PFMark Tillmon5110060036'28.3 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.1 Ast
5-CAlonzo Mourning240969100636'1013.1 Pts, 7.3 Reb, 0.7 Ast
1-PGBobby Winston6030020036'55.0 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 3.0 Ast
2-SGRonnie Thompson2010010026'41.7 Pts, 0.4 Reb, 0.6 Ast
3-SFJohn Turner7031251216'86.6 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 0.9 Ast
5-CDikembe Mutombo8040030017'23.9 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
 Turnovers 11792271115366816  
             
             
PosDuke 2015Pts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlHtSeason Stats
1-PGTyus Jones15241133126'111.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.6 Ast
2-SGQuinn Cook12133430036'215.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.6 Ast
3-SFJustise Winslow10123391236'612.6 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
4-PFJahlil Okafor13061281226'1117.3 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast
5-CAmile Jefferson8032261256'96.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast
1-PGMatt Jones9122220036'56.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
2-SGMarshall Plumlee2010020017'02.2 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
3-SFSemi Ojeleye5110020016'83.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
 Turnovers 18746221214356720 

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Winslow Leads Duke Past Houston to Face Edey v. Mutombo-Mourning

 This was the Sweet 16 game we most looked forward to, because Houston 2021 was so impressive in their 102-50 win over 2023 Princeton in their opener, that the shot up from our preseason 70th to 35th in our rankings - making them a 4th seed and getting them a bye in this tournament. This team started the current five season streak Houston has going of years in which they've been in the top 6 in the AP poll and held opponents to less than 60 points per game - and this was the Final 4 team during this streak.

Duke 2015 was just the opposite - starting as the 44th ranked team in the preseason but then barely beating Tyler Kolek's Marquette and the 2014 Nebraska team to drop down to a lower seed for the tournament. However, once in the tournament and with the low seeding, they destroyed Miami 2023 look more like the team that just took over late as Justise Winslow bloomed late to run all the way to the 2015 title after Wisconsin upset what many thought was the greatest Kentucky team until that point.

Therefore this was on of those games where the worst seed was the favorite, because we rank this Duke team a +3, meaning three points better than the average all-time great team in the game - but rank Houston as a +0 - meaning exactly average in the game. That's about how it ended up with a 74-70 Duke win to advance.

However, out of the gates Houston did what they do every year - dominating the offensive boards. This is the first time we ever recall a team grabbing the first 9 rebounds of the game as they shot to a 28-21 lead after grabbing 7 offensive rebounds and 2 defensive rebounds to none for Duke. However, Winslow was not yet in the game, so he came in and steadied it with 15 points and 12 rebounds and as a result Duke only lost the rebound battle 39-44.

 
Duke 2015               Game Highlights                              NBA?  HtSummary
Tyus Jones16 ptsnba6'111.8 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 5.6 Ast
Quinn Cook6-7 free throws (90% season)nba6'215.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Justise Winslow15 pts, 12 rebnba6'612.6 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast
Jahlil Okafor18 pts, 10 rebnba6'1117.3 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Amile Jefferson nba6'96.1 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Rasheed Sulaimon  6'57.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Matt Jones  6'56.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Grayson AllenDNP (dominant next season)nba6'44.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Marshall Plumlee nba7'02.2 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Semi Ojeleye nba6'83.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Houston 2021Game Highlights Ht     Summary
Marcus Sasser nba6'113.7 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 2.2 Ast
Dejon Jarreau16 pts, 2 blocked shotsnba6'510.6 Pts, 5.4 Reb, 4.3 Ast
Quentin Grimes15 pts, 10 rebnba6'517.8 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 2.0 Ast
Justin Gorham15 pts, 14 reb 6'78.4 Pts, 8.6 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Brison Gresham  6'83.0 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Jamal Shead nba6'13.3 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 1.5 Ast
Tramon Mark  6'57.8 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Fabian White  6'86.2 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Reggie Chaney  6'84.7 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 0.5 Ast
J'Wan Roberts  6'71.9 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast
     
Team StatsDuke listed 1st, then Houston 2nd   
Points74-70 Duke win   
Rebounds39-44 Houston edge (started 0-9)   
Free Throws14-21 to 8-12   
Steals6-5 Duke edge   
Turnovers10-9 Duke 1 more but very low both   
Blocked Shots4-7 Houston edge   
Fouls Committed16-21 Five more fouls called on Hou  


This round has more higher seeds than any other round we've played in our three tournaments, as only two to four of the Elite 8 will be a top 8 seed. The 2023 UConn was the 1-seed and barely survived by closing out their Sweet 16 game on an unprecedented 17-0 run. Western Kentucky's 1966 team is also in the Elite 8 as the 3-seed. The other two still alive are the 6-seed Fab 5 from Michigan in 1993 who will need to beat Tennessee 2023 to advance and meet Western Kentucky, and in the ultimate battle of big men, Purdue's Zach Edey will face the 1989 Georgetown's Alonzo Mourning and the one and only, late great, Dikembe Mutombo to see who faces Duke 2015 in the Elite 8.
 



Sunday, November 19, 2023

UConn Ranked 12th All-time Team; Tourney With Deion's Colorado, Larry Bird

The following are the Sweet 16 match-ups of our most recent Value Add Basketball Game tournament. We post the scores of all the games we've played on this google sheet.  All 178 all-time greats started with a preseason ranking based on how good I believe their cards are, then every time a team plays a game we adjust based on the margin of victory and strength of their opponent. With three of the top four teams in the latest AP Poll (Kansas, Purdue and Marquette) tipping off in Hawaii Monday for the Maui Classic, our all-time basketball fever is high.

Bird in Closest Game. We just had our closest game of the tournament. Larry Bird scored 36 points for Indiana State 1979, but after an apparent game-winning blocked shot by his teammate Alex Gilbert, Texas 2023 Tyrese Hunter grabbed the offensive rebound and put it in at the buzzer for a 97-96 overtime win to send Texas to the Sweet 16 below against Tennessee.

Biggest Surprise - is Deion Sanders  in a 3rd sport as basketball coach? The biggest surprise in the game is Colorado 2021. The "Preseason" line below indicates we only ranked Colorado 155th of the all-time great games when we started, but they have pulled out three straight close upsets to move all the way up to 47th and earn a Sweet 16 spot against Miami. McKinley Wright was great that season, leading Colorado to an incredible 3-game sweep of a USC team ranked 6th at www.kenpom.com, but this start is a lot like Sanders opening his Colorado football career with upset over the defending national runner up despite the team only winning one game the year before. We believe the Buffaloes will come back to earth ... eventually. Yes, the new Colorado hoops team is also now in the Top 25.

UConn 12th All-Time With Biggest Blowout. The best defensive showing we've ever had in the game was a 77-39 pounding that the reigning champs from UConn gave to the Cinderella from the year before, St. Peter's.  UConn was 12th all-time already based on their cards but unlike www.kenpom.com we cap margin of victory at 20 points for calculating ratings, and since St. Peter's is ranked last of the 178 all-time great teams in the game with a -19.0 (we would expect them to lose by 19 against the average great team in the game) the result did not move UConn up.

Xavier Freemantle Card Ranks Them Slightly Ahead of Marquette-Creighton. Big East fans and my fellow Marquette alums may ask why Marquette had to beat Creighton on a last second shot by Kam Jones, while Xavier was getting a bye due to being ranked slightly ahead of both of them in the game. Xavier finished behind both in the final www.kenpom.com rankings, and did not go as far as Creighton in the tournament and was destroyed by Marquette in the Big East tournament. 

Their higher ranking is partly due to a strong opening round showing. However, they were already within striking distances because when we calculated how good the team is it includes and excellent card for Zach Freemantle, who unfortunately was injured after Xavier won at UConn for their 13th win in 14 games. the fact that they still went on to finish 2nd in the regular season and Big East Tournament, and make the Sweet 16 even without one of their best players being missing gives you an idea on how strong they are in the game with his card.

With that, here are the new Sweet 16 with UConn the top seed and 12th ranked team overall in our game, while the Rutgers 1976 Final Four team was moved up to the number 2 seed by moving from 87th preseason to 42nd with a 97-77 blowout over Clemson 1987 and their future Chicago Bulls World Champion Horace Grant.
 
Rnk  Seed Value Add Team in Tourney         Presea  WonLostScoreAllowSoS    Rating
121Connecticut - 2023 - Adama Sanogo121077.039.0-19.08.1
7117Duke - 2022 - Wendell Moore1102082.074.0-7.50.0
          
618Gonzaga - 2023 - Drew Timme921086.074.0-7.00.8
659Kansas - 2022 - Ochai Agbaji661087.081.0-7.90.5
          
454Tennessee - 2023 - Santiago Vescovi631075.067.0-4.02.0
7013Texas - 2023 - Marcus Carr752090.587.0-6.00.0
          
475Colorado - 2021 - McKinley Wright1553082.378.0-0.31.8
10521Miami - 2023 - Norchad Omier1572088.587.5-4.0-3.8
          
422Rutgers - 1976 - Phil Sellers871097.077.0-9.02.3
8018Stanford - 2008 - Brook Lopez1342082.576.5-5.0-1.0
          
587SMU - 2017 - Semi Ojeleye911077.064.0-7.01.0
7310Xavier - 2023 - Jack Nunge1331083.068.0-4.00.0
          
443Houston - 2021 - Quentin Grimes6210102.050.0-16.02.0
6019North Carolina - 2022 - Armando Bacot1562080.568.0-2.50.8
          
526Duke - 2015 - Justise Winslow411075.072.0-11.01.3
5414Marquette - 2023 - Tyler Kolek1092092.087.0-1.41.2

The 16 teams remaining in the new tournament were all teams added in the last batch we did. This included some that just had a great year the last few years after we played our first two tournaments. We also looked for schools who did not yet have a team in the game to add (Rutgers 1976 or St. Peter's last year). 

Finally, in early batches of teams we did also try to grab some team with the greatest or best known players of all-time. So while I wouldn't believe the following players were really on one of the greatest teams of all time - they were so great it was fun to included them - Dominique Wilkins of Georgia 1982, Bill Bradley of Princeton 1965, Rick Barry of Miami 1965, Pistol Pete Maravich of LSU 1970, Ja Morant of Murray State 2019 and Calvin Murphy of Niagara 1970.
 
RnkOther All-Time Value Add Basketball TeamsPreseasonWonLostScoreAllowSoSRating
1UCLA - 1972 - Bill Walton16072.062.0-0.514.7
2Kansas - 1997 - Paul Pierce175076.862.4-1.013.0
3Duke - 2001 - Shane Battier43178.372.54.812.3
4Ohio St. - 1960 - Jerry Lucas62184.076.34.711.8
5Indiana - 1976 - Scott May73171.359.8-0.811.1
6Houston - 1968 - Elvin Hayes143173.063.81.310.1
7North Carolina - 1982 - Michael Jordan115168.865.04.010.0
8Kansas - 2008 - Mario Chalmers455174.756.0-0.79.8
9Kentucky - 1996 - Antoine Walker52172.069.33.39.7
10North Carolina - 2005 - Sean May153272.264.42.09.1
11Arkansas - 1994 - Corliss Williamson201275.370.38.08.2
13Villanova - 2018 - Mikal Bridges217279.470.30.17.9
14Connecticut - 2004 - Ben Gordon465274.766.00.77.5
15Baylor - 2021 - Jared Butler472286.078.54.87.4
16Virginia - 2019 - Kyle Guy264172.665.42.47.4
17Louisville - 2013 - Russ Smith272174.066.31.77.3
18Gonzaga - 2017 - Nigel Williams-Goss223369.863.03.06.8
19Kentucky - 2012 - Anthony Davis24272.265.7-4.76.6
20Duke - 1992 - Christian Laettner81273.770.31.06.5
21North Carolina St. - 1974 - David Thompson162172.072.74.36.5
22DePaul - 1980 - Mark Aguirre1083176.868.83.56.4
23Duke - 2010 - Jon Scheyer285274.066.70.16.4
24Houston - 1983 - Hakeem Olajuwon232170.765.0-0.35.8
25Michigan St. - 1979 - Magic Johnson242170.362.7-2.35.8
26Cincinnati - 1960 - Oscar Robertson91272.378.08.35.7
27Loyola Marymount - 1990 - Bo Kimble8412112.3108.32.31.8
28Michigan - 1965 - Cazzie Russell372185.779.0-1.05.5
29Purdue - 2018 - Carsen Edwards554171.268.82.85.1
30UCLA - 1967 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar32183.087.0-2.04.2
31Auburn - 2019 - Chuma Okeke858171.065.3-2.64.2
32Illinois - 2005 - Deron Williams293272.069.61.24.0
33Georgetown - 1984 - Patrick Ewing302167.365.30.03.7
34Michigan St. - 2000 - Mateen Cleaves314179.677.2-1.63.5
35Wake Forest - 1996 - Tim Duncan862166.064.76.03.3
36Oregon - 2017 - Dillon Brooks614371.969.91.62.9
37Wisconsin - 2015 - Frank Kaminsky382265.063.31.02.9
38UNLV - 1991 - Larry Johnson101272.776.30.72.8
39Syracuse - 2003 - Carmelo Anthony732176.074.03.02.7
40Memphis - 2008 - Derrick Rose394268.765.8-0.32.4
41Indiana - 1981 - Isaiah Thomas402172.772.30.02.3
43Oklahoma - 1985 - Wayman Tisdale883175.373.81.82.1
46UTEP (Texas Western) - 1966 - Bobby Joe Hill  892163.766.06.71.8
48Jacksonville - 1970 - Artis Gilmore481178.075.0-2.0    1.6
49Cincinnati - 2002 - Jason Maxiell322272.871.5-1.51.6
50Florida - 2006 - Joakim Noah135374.472.0-4.61.5
51USC - 2021 - Evan Mobley642173.770.7-4.31.3
53Michigan St. - 2009 - Draymond Green906371.371.91.61.3
55Kansas - 1957 - Wilt Chamberlain251167.574.02.01.2
56Arizona - 2015 - Stanley Johnson493175.370.5-6.01.1
57Syracuse - 1987 - Rony Seikaly742172.368.7-2.01.0
59Illinois - 1989 - Nick Anderson332187.084.0-5.30.8
62North Carolina - 1998 - Vince Carter182180.783.7-3.00.7
63Michigan - 1989 - Glen Rice190270.578.53.00.6
64Seton Hall - 1989 - John Morton651178.078.01.50.6
66Michigan - 2013 - Trey Burke561270.369.70.30.3
67Loyola-Chicago - 1963 - Jerry Harkness340162.068.0-2.00.0
68Arizona - 1997 - Mike Bibby502168.771.0-1.00.0
69Texas Tech - 2019 - Jarrett Culver673265.667.20.80.0
72Iowa - 2021 - Luka Garza1321179.570.5-3.50.0
74San Francisco - 1956 - Bill Russell510167.074.04.0-0.3
75Ohio St. - 2007 - Greg Oden572370.271.40.6-0.5
76Kentucky - 1948 - Alex Groza351171.081.53.0-0.6
77Pittsburgh - 2009 - DeJuan Blair581360.062.32.3-0.7
78Marquette - 1977 - Butch Lee761166.061.5-5.0-0.8
79Marquette - 2003 - Dwyane Wade772273.374.00.0-0.9
81Georgia Tech - 2004 - Jarrett Jack682362.667.43.8-1.1
82Minnesota - 1977 - Kevin McHale521169.568.5-3.0-1.2
83Georgetown - 2007 - Roy Hibbert781276.775.3-1.7-1.3
84Maryland - 1984 - Len Bias1311169.568.51.5-1.4
85Duke - 1986 - Johnny Dawkins5301106.0108.0-6.0-1.5
86Creighton - 2023 - Ryan Kalkbrenner1111186.086.00.5-1.6
87Missouri - 1982 - Steve Stipanovich932173.773.3-1.7-1.7
88Indiana St. - 1979 - Larry Bird421279.781.0-4.0-1.8
89California - 1959 - Jack Grout690169.071.0-2.0-2.0
90Holy Cross - 1950 - Bob Cousy791188.089.5-2.0-2.0
91LSU - 1992 - Shaquille O'Neal801182.581.0-5.0-2.0
92Connecticut - 1999 - Richard Hamilton360260.573.05.0-2.2
93St. John's - 1985 - Chris Mullin950175.076.00.0-2.8
94Kansas St. - 2023 - Markquis Nowell1351181.074.0-6.5-2.8
95San Diego St. - 2011 - Kawhi Leonard1122269.371.8-0.3-2.9
96Alabama - 2023 - Brandon Miller540178.079.0-13.0-3.0
97Seattle - 1958 - Elgin Baylor960162.064.00.0-3.0
98Kansas St. - 2008 - Michael Beasley1361175.075.50.5-3.0
99Marquette - 1971 - Jim Chones1371270.072.73.0-3.0
100Purdue - 1969 - Rick Mount970186.087.0-2.0-3.3
101Oklahoma St. - 2004 - John Lucas701368.871.0-1.5-3.3
102South Carolina - 2017 - Sindarius Thornwell1131265.365.7-2.0-3.3
103Virginia - 1981 - Ralph Sampson590161.072.0-3.0-3.8
104Dayton - 2020 - Obi Toppin1141181.580.5-4.0-3.8
106Indiana - 2002 - Jared Jeffries811367.372.81.3-4.0
107South Carolina - 1973 - Mike Dunleavy1250166.072.06.0-4.0
108Iowa St. - 2014 - DeAndre Kane981173.075.5-5.0-4.2
109Tennessee - 1977 - Bernard King1151176.083.01.0-4.2
110St. Bonaventure - 1970 - Bob Lanier600164.074.0-6.0-4.3
111Alabama - 1977 - Reggie King1160170.071.0-3.0-4.3
112Maryland - 2002 - Juan Dixon431367.076.30.8-4.3
113UNLV - 1987 - Armen Gilliam440164.082.0-6.0-4.8
114Florida St. - 1993 - Charlie Ward990176.078.0-7.0-4.8
115West Virginia - 1959 - Jerry West1000168.069.0-8.0-4.8
116La Salle - 1954 - Tom Gola1070167.076.0-3.0-4.8
117DePaul - 1945 - George Mikan1430151.055.07.0-4.8
118Oklahoma - 2016 - Buddy Hield821360.367.31.3-4.9
119St. Joe's - 2004 - Jameer Nelson711268.375.7-1.7-5.0
120UCLA - 2006 - Jordan Farmar1172366.072.40.4-5.0
121St. Mary's - 2023 - Logan Johnson1261183.084.0-5.5-5.0
122North Carolina - 1957 - Lennie Rosenbluth830176.089.0-1.0-5.3
123Washington - 2006 - Brandon Roy1180198.099.0-7.0-5.3
124Notre Dame - 1981 - Orlando Woolridge1380168.074.04.0-5.3
125West Virginia - 2010 - Kevin Jones1011370.376.00.0-5.3
126Notre Dame - 1970 - Austin Carr1271167.076.51.0-5.8
127Texas - 2003 - T.J. Ford1021268.776.3-1.0-6.0
128Miami - 2013 - Shane Larkin1280167.075.00.0-6.0
129Iowa - 2001 - Reggie Evans1631271.075.31.7-6.0
130Wichita St. - 2013 - Fred VanVleet1441264.371.31.7-6.3
131Davidson - 2008 - Stephen Curry1581566.770.80.7-6.4
132Brigham Young - 1981 - Danny Ainge1290167.077.00.0-6.5
133Virginia Tech - 1986 - Dell Curry1640181.087.07.4-6.7
134Georgia Tech - 1990 - Dennis Scott1030164.082.01.0-6.8
135LSU - 2006 - Glen Davis1191266.375.0-0.7-6.8
136Seton Hall - 2020 - Myles Powell1450178.080.0-3.4-6.9
137Marquette - 2011 - Jimmy Butler1460182.087.0-1.0-7.0
138TCU - 2023 - JaKobe Coles1470177.079.0-5.0-7.3
139Utah - 1998 - Andre Miller1240169.079.0-4.0-7.5
140Marquette - 1994 - Jim McIlvaine1201170.080.5-4.2-7.7
141Dayton - 1967 - Don May1210169.088.01.0-7.8
142Boston College - 2006 - Jared Dudley1590172.076.0-2.0-7.8
143Arizona St. - 1980 - Byron Scott1390164.079.02.0-8.0
144Kansas - 1988 - Danny Manning1400158.067.0-4.0-8.0
145UCLA - 2021 - Jaime Jaquez1410181.090.0-4.0-8.0
146Arkansas - 1978 - Sidney Moncrief1040158.079.0-2.0-8.3
147Auburn - 1984 - Charles Barkley1651171.577.0-3.5-8.4
148Clemson - 1987 - Horace Grant1220177.097.0-1.0-8.5
149Navy - 1986 - David Robinson1480161.077.04.0-8.5
150Oklahoma St. - 1946 - Bob Kurland1490180.082.0-10.0-8.5
151Penn St. - 2018 - Tony Carr1500182.090.0-4.0-8.5
152Wyoming - 1943 - Ken Sailors1510160.073.01.0-8.5
153Central Florida - 2019 - Joey Graham1660170.074.0-3.0-8.8
154Arkansas - 2021 - JD Notae1300168.083.0-5.0-9.0
155Louisville - 1980 - Darrell Griffith1050152.082.03.0-9.3
156Villanova - 1985 - Ed Pinckney1670165.072.0-2.0-9.3
157Nebraska - 2014 - Terran Petteway1720172.075.03.0-9.3
158San Diego St. - 2023 - Jaedon LeDee1690178.084.0-1.0-9.5
159Georgia - 1982 - Dominique Wilkins1701170.078.0-1.0-9.6
160George Mason - 2006 - Jai Lewis1680359.367.00.3-9.7
161Kentucky - 1970 - Dan Issel12301116.0138.0-4.0-9.8
162Marquette - 1955 - Terry Rand1600174.086.0-2.0-9.8
163Wake Forest - 2005 - Chris Paul720364.385.34.3-10.0
164Florida Atlantic - 2023 - Johnell Davis1610164.077.0-2.0-10.0
165Creighton - 2020 - Ty-Shon Alexander1420172.0106.08.0-10.3
166Creighton - 2014 - Doug McDermott1060366.380.0-1.3-10.5
167Northwestern - 2017 - Vic Law1520170.085.0-5.0-10.5
168Princeton - 1965 - Bill Bradley1530162.079.0-3.0-10.5
169Miami - 1965 - Rick Barry16201104.0108.0-16.0-11.3
170Stephen F Austin - 2016 - Thomas Walkup1730194.095.0-2.0-11.8
171LSU - 1970 - Pete Maravich1760166.067.01.0-12.3
172VCU - 2011 - Bradford Burgess1740360.371.31.0-13.0
173Murray St. - 2019 - Ja Morant1750178.085.0-3.0-13.3
174Butler - 2010 - Gordon Hayward1540354.776.34.3-13.7
175Loyola-Chicago - 2018 - Cameron Krutwig1710359.375.01.7-14.0
176Niagara - 1970 - Calvin Murphy1770168.084.06.0-14.8
177Princeton - 2023 - Tosan Evbuomwan1780150.0102.00.0-20.5
178St. Peter's - 2022 - Doug Edert1790139.077.02.0-22.3


Thursday, March 9, 2023

10 Young NCAA Teams Could Stay Intact for 2025 March Madness


Pictures by John Pudner at Madison Square Garden March 9, 2023. LEFT - the last moment of the score being tied at 70-70 in overtime as Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek's shot prepares to go through the hoop for the game-winner. Right - Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Kam Jones box out in the war under the boards moments earlier in the overtime.

We know teams can no longer stay together for three or four seasons due to the transfer portal and new NCAA rules allowing players to earn money for the use of their names and likenesses or making endorsements, or accepting gifts from boosters. However, there are 10 teams projected to be in the NCAA tournament field of 68 who could keep the majority of their team together through 2025 - led by Marquette who plays only freshmen and sophmores so could have the same team in tact in 2025.

Tyler Kolek gave a great answer after the game when I asked him about being one of the youngest three teams of the 68 in the tournament, and you can read that story by clicking here. I based that on Ken Pomeroy's youth rankings and the teams projected to be in the tournament - however in researching I realized Pomeroy has changed his criteria and counts only years in Division I basketball as experience.

This means juniors and seniors with a couple of years of JUCO or Division II ball under their belts are treated as freshmen - which doesn't seem the best measure of experience. 

Instead we ran the numbers on what percent of a team's time on the floor are by players who could play another two years or more. If a player is a senior, junior or a one and done then they will not still be playing in two years.

The following are the results, with a link to the Basketball Reference page for players mentioned.

Marquette is not only the only team that could stay completely in tact for two more seasons, but the next youngest team in the tournament by this measure are Howard and Duke, who gets 68% of their time from freshman and sophomores who could be around for two more years. Obviously with the transfer portal and the big money going to players who end up with the Texas Longhorns or other huge programs will likely break up teams - but here are the stats of what is possible followed by the line-ups for each team. 

Back for 2 yrs   Back for 1   Youngest Team              Seed     Sr.       Jr.        1&done
100%100%Marquette2.960%0%0%
68%84%Duke6.488%16%8%
68%76%Howard1624%8%0%
60%74%Yale13.1726%14%0%
58%68%Southeast Missouri St.1632%10%0%
56%56%Charleston11.9544%0%0%
56%74%Illinois8.2426%18%0%
56%80%VCU12.1120%24%0%
55%70%Creighton6.2218%15%12%
53%69%Louisiana13.7131%16%0%


Here is each team for youngest to 10th youngest. Each player's jersey number, class or if they are a one and done projected to go in the NBA draft, and then the percent of the time they are playing that position (e.g. Kolek plays point guard for Marquette 87% of the time, while David Joplin plays 19% as the small forward and 22% as the power forward).

1. Marquette                 Starters                                                    Back-ups                          
Point Guards11 Tyler Kolek, So, 0.8722 Sean Jones, Fr, 0.12
Shooting GuardsStevie Mitchell, So, 0.565 Chase Ross, Fr, 0.23
Small Forwards1 Kam Jones, So, 0.6823 David Joplin, So, 0.19
Power Forwards12 Olivier-Maxence Prosper, So, 0.7123 David Joplin, So, 0.22
Centers13 Oso Ighodaro, So, 0.7321 Ben Gold, Fr, 0.22

2. Duke                           Starters                                        Back-ups                              
Point Guards3 Jeremy Roach, Jr, 0.815 Tyrese Proctor, Fr, 0.14
Shooting Guards5 Tyrese Proctor, Fr, 0.6613 Jacob Grandison, Sr, 0.17
Small Forwards25 Mark Mitchell, Fr, 0.490 Dariq Whitehead, Fr, 0.34
Power Forwards30 Kyle Filipowski, 1&d, 0.4425 Mark Mitchell, Fr, 0.32
Centers1 Dereck Lively, Fr, 0.5615 Ryan Young, Sr, 0.21


3. Howard                      Starters                                        Back-ups                           
Point Guards3 Elijah Hawkins, So, 0.761 Khalil Robinson, Sr, 0.22
Shooting Guards0 Marcus Dockery, So, 0.6511 Ose Okojie, Fr, 0.16
Small Forwards5 Jelani Williams, Sr, 0.5434 Bryce Harris, So, 0.18
Power Forwards22 Shy Odom, Fr, 0.3534 Bryce Harris, So, 0.27
Centers24 Jordan Wood, Jr, 0.4412 Kobe Dickson, Sr, 0.41

Keep in mind Yale my not win the Ivy League to make the tournament. We went through the 68 teams projected to make the tournament as of March 9 in the morning.

4. Yale                       Starters                                     Back-ups                              
Point Guards2 Bez Mbeng, So, 0.5224 Yassine Gharram, So, 0.46
Shooting Guards3 August Mahoney, Jr, 0.72 Bez Mbeng, So, 0.19
Small Forwards4 John Poulakidas, So, 0.6913 Michael Feinberg, Sr, 0.15
Power Forwards35 Isaiah Kelly, Sr, 0.4533 Jack Molloy, So, 0.27
Centers15 EJ Jarvis, Sr, 0.681 Danny Wolf, Fr, 0.2


5. SE MO St.StartersBack-ups
Point Guards1 Phillip Russell, So, 0.893 Aquan Smart, So, 0.07
Shooting Guards0 Israel Barnes, Sr, 0.393 Aquan Smart, So, 0.34
Small ForwardsChris Harris, Sr, 0.560 Israel Barnes, Sr, 0.29
Power Forwards33 Dylan Branson, So, 0.53Chris Harris, Sr, 0.29
Centers14 Nate Johnson, Sr, 0.4721 Josh Earley, Jr, 0.46


6. CharlestonStartersBack-ups
Point Guards11 Ryan Larson, Sr, 0.721 Jaylon Scott, Sr, 0.26
Shooting Guards2 Reyne Smith, So, 0.6715 Pat Robinson, Sr, 0.24
Small Forwards3 Dalton Bolon, Sr, 0.3815 Pat Robinson, Sr, 0.28
Power Forwards25 Ben Burnham, So, 0.4121 Jaylon Scott, Sr, 0.34
Centers10 Ante Brzovic, So, 0.5935 Babacar Faye, So, 0.33


7. IllinoisStartersBack-ups
Point Guards0 Terrence Shannon, Sr, 0.523 Jayden Epps, Fr, 0.34
Shooting Guards20 Ty Rodgers, Fr, 0.371 Sencire Harris, Fr, 0.28
Small Forwards15 RJ Melendez, So, 0.3724 Matthew Mayer, Sr, 0.24
Power Forwards24 Matthew Mayer, Sr, 0.5533 Coleman Hawkins, Jr, 0.29
Centers33 Coleman Hawkins, Jr, 0.5842 Dain Dainja, So, 0.39


8. VCUStartersBack-ups
Point Guards1 Adrian Baldwin, Jr, 0.8523 Jayden Nunn, So, 0.12
Shooting Guards23 Jayden Nunn, So, 0.522 Zeb Jackson, Jr, 0.37
Small Forwards24 Nick Kern, So, 0.5335 David Shriver, Sr, 0.31
Power Forwards0 Jamir Watkins, So, 0.4430 Brandon Johns, Sr, 0.36
Centers4 Jalen DeLoach, So, 0.630 Brandon Johns, Sr, 0.34


9. CreightonStartersBack-ups
Point Guards2 Ryan Nembhard, So, 0.8523 Trey Alexander, So, 0.08
Shooting Guards23 Trey Alexander, So, 0.485 Francisco Farabello, Sr, 0.31
Small Forwards55 Baylor Scheierman, Sr, 0.6123 Trey Alexander, So, 0.26
Power Forwards24 Arthur Kaluma, 2&d, 0.5813 Mason Miller, Fr, 0.3
Centers11 Ryan Kalkbrenner, Jr, 0.7433 Fredrick King, Fr, 0.21


10. LouisianaStartersBack-ups
Point Guards0 Themus Fulks, So, 0.71Michael Thomas, So, 0.28
Shooting Guards5 Jalen Dalcourt, Sr, 0.522 Kentrell Garnett, So, 0.39
Small Forwards13 Greg Williams, Sr, 0.584 Kobe Julien, So, 0.28
Power Forwards1 Joe Charles, So, 0.5234 Terence Lewis, Sr, 0.46
Centers21 Jordan Brown, Jr, 0.8235 Isaiah Richards, So, 0.15