Showing posts with label Purdue. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Purdue. Show all posts

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Edey Card Debuts with 23 pts, 17 reb, 5 blocks and Draws 4 Fouls on 11-time NBA All-Star

The match-up of 6-foot-8, 11 time all-NBA player Dolph Schayes against 7-foot-4 2024 player of the year Zach Edey stayed close at 34-39 until there were 28 possessions left in the game. However, at that point Edey drew a forth foul on Schayes and New York University 1948 had to switch to put 6'1 Ray Lumpp on him.

Purdue pulled away from that point - winning 74-53 in the debut of both cards, and Edey finished with 23 points, 17 rebounds and 5 blocked shots. Much work is done to balance eras, including our "dunk ranges," and playing the game dispels the misconception among many fans that "shooting used to be much better" than it is today.

As an example in this game, NYC averaged hitting 25 of 86 shots, shooting below 30% for the season, and they were a very good team at 22-4 that had been national runner-up a few years earlier in Dolph Schayes freshman season. Below the box score of Purdue advancing is our preview of the game.

 
Pos       New York University 1948   Pts  3pt  2pt  FT Att Reb Stl Blk Fl   Season Actual
1-PGJoe Dolhon7023422138.2 pts, 6'0
2-SGDon Forman91224320211.9 pts, 5'10
3-SFJoel Kaufman4020051128.3 pts, 6'3
4-PFRay Lumpp1204461212417.1 pts, 6'1
5-CDolph Schayes1315001001113.7 pts, 6'8
1-PGTom Kelly6030010027.1 pts, 6'0
2-SGJoe DeBonis2010010012.7 pts
3-SF 0         
4-PF 0         
5-C 0         
 13 Turnovers53219914346515 
            
PosPurdue 2024 3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlSeason Actual
1-PGBraden Smith131422410412 pts, 6'0
2-SGLance Jones71200520311.9 pts, 6'1
3-SFFletcher Loyer102200100110.6 pts, 6'4
4-PFMason Gillis2010040216.7 pts, 6'6
5-CZach Edey2309591705124.9 pts, 7'4
1-PGEthan Morton3011221010.7 pts, 6'7
2-SGMyles Colvin2010020013.4 pts, 6'5
3-SFCamden Heide2010010013.3 pts, 6'7
4-PFTrey Kaufman-Renn8032210026.4 pts, 6'9
5-CCaleb Furst4020050012.2 pts, 6'10
 13 Turnovers744261015424716

First the setup for the game.

One reason we try to play each team once is catch any tweaks, and there were a couple of them for NYU. We needed to increase the Stamina to get high enough to cover all minutes in the game with only seven player cards. The +2 for Purdue and -21 for NYC lets you know Purdue could be about a 21-point favorite in this game - which we set up as the top newly created against the 16th best team - or overall the 232nd best team in the game against the 63rd of all time. 

The other change we made is flipping the Power Forward and Center 4th and 5th spot to line Dolph Schayes up against Zach Edey for this game. Schayes is obviously not as tall as Edey - coming in at 6-foot-8, but he was an NBA All-Star 11 years in a row so gives a classic match-up at center.

As for Edey, note that his 1-15 offensive rebound range is so strong that he will not only always get a "high rebound" reading, but he also will great the offensive rebound if the rebound chart gives one of the other Purdue players a chance for the offensive rebound but a "6" comes up on the 1-6 roll - which his teammates would not have in their range but Edey will grab.










Sunday, December 26, 2021

Big Ten Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date

 For Immediate Release

John Pudner, 404.606.3163, johnp@takebackaction.org


Big Ten Conference Top 15 Men’s Basketball Players To Date


“Value Add Basketball is happy to provide the early list of the conference’s top 15 men’s  basketball players based on proven analytics used by NBA teams for draft prep,as well as writers at Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, Fox Sports,” said John Pudner, the inventor of the system.”


“Seven of 14 Big Ten teams feature a player with more than a 70 percent chance of making the NBA, and that does not even include Ohio State and the top player in the league - EJ Liddell. Liddell leads three Big Ten players in the top seven players, placing 4th, while Iowa’s Keegan Murray ranks 5th and Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis ranks 7th.”


“The All-Big Ten team would be completed by Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, the top NBA prospect at 95% and 4th in the conference in Value Add (8.58) and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson 5th. Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis ranks as the 19th most valuable player in the country, which would make him 1st team All-Conference in all 31 other conference but leaves him as the 6th best player in the loaded Big Ten.”


You can click on this google doc with information on all 4,000+ players prior to it being posted on www.valueaddbasketball.com. You can also click here for the top 100 players in the country.


Information includes each player’s chance of making the NBA, his Value Add Rating for how many points he impacts a typical game (roughly 10 points is All-American level). The key to the table is: Rank = the player's conference ranking, Value Add = how many points he improves his team over a replacement player, Class = if he is in his 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th and final year of eligibility, Ht = his height, AdjD = how many points he takes away from opponents, and NBA = his percent chance of making the NBA.


Feel free to use any information contained in these statements as wanted, and email (johnp@takebackaction.org), or text/call 404.606.3163 for any questions or additional quotes from John Pudner.


RankB10TeamValue AddClassHtAdjDNBA
1EJ LiddellOhio St.9.88Jr6'7"-3.0649%
2Keegan MurrayIowa9.61So6'8"-2.6578%
3Trayce Jackson-DavisIndiana9.39So6'9"-3.7571%
4Jaden IveyPurdue8.58So6'4"-2.6695%
5Hunter DickinsonMichigan8.39So7'1"-3.0726%
6Johnny DavisWisconsin8.32So6'5"-2.5986%
7Brad DavisonWisconsin7.78Sr6'4"-1.371%
8Payton WillisMinnesota7.55Sr6'4"-1.831%
9Pete NanceNorthwestern7.31Sr6'10"-31%
10Hakim HartMaryland7.14Jr6'8"-1.941%
11Trevion WilliamsPurdue7.09Sr6'10"-3.5526%
12Ron HarperRutgers6.98Sr6'6"-2.6231%
13Eli BrooksMichigan6.96Sr6'1"-1.761%
14Jamari WheelerOhio St.6.93Sr6'1"-3.51%
15Kofi CockburnIllinois6.74Jr7'0-2.7640%
DefMarcus BinghamMichigan St.6.69Sr7'0-4.261%
DefTrent FrazierIllinois6.74Sr6'2"-3.91%
DefCaleb McConnellRutgers2.96Sr6'7"-3.381%
DefRace ThompsonIndiana6.05Jr6'8"-3.181%
DefJohn HarrarPenn St.6.34Sr6'9"-2.991%
NBACaleb HoustanMichigan3.36Fr6'8"-1.5683%
NBAGabe BrownMichigan St.6.08Sr6'8"-1.1445%
NBAMalaki BranhamOhio St.0.94Fr6'5"-0.8645%
NBABryce McGowensNebraska3.32Fr6'7"-0.7991%
NBAMax ChristieMichigan St.2.97Fr6'6"-0.7490%
NBAFrankie CollinsMichigan0.86Fr6'1"-0.7328%

Saturday, August 1, 2020

2020 Value Add NIT - Winners and Top Performances

This is a condensed post with a paragraph on every game of our 2020 NIT that might have been using player cards and the free Value Add Basketball Game. The more detailed post includes score sheets and more detail on each game as well as the already concluded NCAA 2020 and all-time tournaments. 

In this post we summarize the 1st Round of our simulated NIT tournament starting with the top 5 individual performances in points, rebounds, steals and blocked shots. We then give the breakdown of the top offensive and defensive games by teams, and finally list games in the order of the bracket, and we seed 1- through 32- rather than break down into four 1-8 seeds. At the bottom we include the bracket itself.

Top 5 game stats in NIT opening round.

Top points; Goodwin (St. Louis) 29, Gamdia-Rosa (N.Florida) 28, Rayman (Colgate) 27, Figueroa (St. John's) 23, Lyons (Furman ) 23, Carr (Minnesota) 23.

Top Rebounds; Santos-Silva (VCU) 15, Oturu (Minnesota) 14, Mooney (ND) 13, Fulkerson (Tennessee) 13, French (St. Louis) 12, Holland (Radford) 12.

Top Steals; Champagnie (St. John's ) 6, Likekel (OK St.) 5, Hayes (Merrimack) 5, Jenkins (VCU) 5, Lomax (Memphis ) 5, Russell (Rhode Island) 5.

Top Blocks; Sidibe (Syracuse) 6, Oturu (Minnesota) 5, Dentlinger (South Dakota State) 5, Langevine (Rhode Island) 5, Haarms (Purdue ) 4, da Silva (Stanford ) 4, Pons (Tennessee) 4.

Biggest Margin - Purdue +21 vs Merrimack 74-53, runner-up VCU and Mississippi State +15 each, while three games went into overtime.

Best Offensive and Defensive Team Performances

Through the 16 1st Round NIT games using the Value Add Basketball game, teams averaged 71.2 possessions, whereas during the actual entire 2020 season teams average a possession less per game at 70.0. However, this is likely because three of the 16 Value Add games went into overtime.

In the 16 board games the average team score 1.01 points per possession, which is just below the 1.02 per possession from the entire real 2020 season, so the game seems to be just about right on target on both through the small sample of 16 games.

The following chart gives each team's points scored in their opening round game, divided by their possession, in order to rank them from the best offensive efficiency (Texas scoring 1.20 points per trip to edge Colgate) down to the best defensive effort (Purdue averaged allowing just 0.76 points per possession against Merrimack).

Offense (best top)Defense (best bottom)PointsPossessionsEfficiency
Ave. Real Season 70.068.41.02
Average Value AddNIT 1st Round71.270.51.01
TexasColgate84701.20
ColgateTexas82701.17
Wright St.Memphis76671.13
AlabamaNotre Dame77681.13
ArkansasMurray St.75671.12
Rhode IslandRadford79711.11
XavierNorth Florida79711.11
SyracuseGeorgetown73661.11
MinnesotaFurman75681.10
VCU Stanford76691.10
North FloridaXavier77711.08
PurdueMerrimack74691.07
St. John'sConnecticut86811.06
Murray St.Arkansas70681.03
Oklahoma St.South Alabama70681.03
S.Dakota St. St. Louis85831.02
N. IowaLouisiana Tech66651.02
ConnecticutSt. John's83821.01
Mississippi StateTulsa69691.00
St. LouisS.Dakota St. 83831.00
Notre DameAlabama68690.99
GeorgetownSyracuse66670.99
RadfordRhode Island69720.96
FurmanMinnesota66690.96
Louisiana TechN. Iowa61660.92
MemphisWright St.62680.91
TennesseeSouth Carolina62700.89
StanfordVCU 61690.88
South AlabamaOklahoma St.58690.84
South CarolinaTennessee58710.82
TulsaMississippi State54700.77
MerrimackPurdue53700.76

1-Xavier vs. 32-North Florida ---16-UConn vs. 17-St. John's

Xavier 79, North Florida 77. North Florida's Ivan Gandia-Rosa, who just missed Atlantic Sun Value Add Player of the year, came within seconds of upsetting 1-seed Xavier. Having already drawn 5 fouls on Paul Scrugg's, he hit 2 free throws finish with 28 points and lead 77-76 with 16 seconds to play. Quintin Gooden missed a potential game-winner for Xavier, but Tyrique Jones grabbed the offensive rebound (game-high 9), fed the ball to Naji Marshall who scored the game-winner despite being fouled and hit the free throw to finish with a team-high 15 and deliver the 79-77 win.

St. John's 86, UConn 83 (OT): The fact that St. John's even forced a overtime was amazing, since UConn's Christian Vital (19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals) dominated.  However, St. John's then did one they do best, turning UConn over down the stretch. While UConn's 6-foot-11 Carlton dominating (12 points and 12 rebounds) most of the game, his shorter St. John's counterpart Champagnie had 6 steals en route to a team 16-8 edge in steals with several in the last 5 minutes. Figueroa hit two 3-pointers en route to his game high 23 points and Williams scored with 16 seconds left to close the amazing 24-14 run in the final 5 minutes to send the game into overtime 74-74.

Xavier vs. St. John's for pod.

8-Stanford vs. 25-VCU --- 9-Texas vs. 24-Colgate

VCU 76, Stanford 61: The first big upset of the 2020 NIT started at Stanford with a 13-0 blitz from VCU that made it 33-20 out of the gate.  In a match-up of star shooting guards, VCU's De'Riante Jenkins stole the ball on two of the first four trips to lead the fast start. The other match-up of big stars featred the two centers with similar last names, as VCU's Marcus Santos-Silva (9 points, 15 rebounds) dominated the boards while Stanford's Oscar da Silva (10 points, 7 rebounds) was strong with four blocked shots. However, the surprise games by Douglas (9 points, 3 rebounds in limited time) and small forward Issac Vann (19 points, 7 rebounds).

Texas 84, Colgate 82: Texas coach Shaka Smart will only host his former team VCU in the 2nd round because his star Jericho Sims took over in the final minutes including the game-winner buzzer beater. The 44 possessions we play included 13 lead changes and 8 ties. Sims scored with 3:30 left to give Texas a 71-70 lead, then to tie it 73-73 on the next trip, then grabbed an offensive rebound and fed Courtney Ramsey to make it 75-73, then scored again for 77-75 lead for 6 points, and offensive rebound and assist in four trips. When Will Raymond capped his 27-point game with a game-tying 3-pointer to make it 82-82, before Sims beat the buzzer for the 84-82 win.

Texas vs. VCU.

4-St. Louis vs. 29-S.Dakota St. --- 13-Notre Dame vs. 20-Alabama

South Dakota State 85, St. Louis 83 (OT). The Summit League's South Dakota State overcame a 14-point deficit, 24 fouls including both forwards  fouling out and a monster performance by Jordan Goodwin (29 points, 10 rebounds) to stun St. Louis in overtime. Center Matt Dentlinger scored only 4 points but blocked his 5th shot to prevent a game-winner at the buzzer to force overtime. Douglas Wilson then scored 8 of his 21 points in overtime before fouling out as they scored 17 in overtime for the win.

Alabama 77, Notre Dame 68. Alabama overcame 18 turnovers and a bit of a home job at South Bend with a barrage of 3-pointers to advance. On roughly 100 rolls of the 4 dice per game (44 possessions per team plus some offensive rebounds and extra possessions for steals-fast breaks or fouls in the last 9 possessions) there is a one in 36 chance of a bad call favoring the home team that can slip a roll of 36 (foul) and 66 (non foul). The refs missed four Notre Dame fouls, one more bad call than average. However, Bama hit four 3-pointers in their first 6 possessions to take a 32-20 lead and they never trailed behind double digits from their trio of stars in PG Kira Lewis (16 points), SG Jaden Shacekford (18) and John Petty (12).

5-Rhode Island vs. 28-Radford --- 12-Mississippi State vs. 21-Tulsa

Rhode Island 79, Radford 69. In a match-up of 2 of the best point guards in the country, Radford's Carlick Jones (21 points, 9 fouls drawn) gave Fatts Russell (17 points, 5 steals) and his Rhode Island teammates all they could handle. Radford led 50-49 with 10:48 to play, however Rhode Island's mismatch edge at the other 4 positions - as the shooting guard (Jeff Dowton 18 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals) and small forward (21 points, 9 rebounds) helped them pull away for the double digit win.

Mississippi St. 69, Tulsa 54. Reggie Perry, a www.valueaddbasketball.com SEC All-Star, led a 7-man rotation with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Tulsa's balanced attack with four players in the top 10 percent of all players actually won the turnover battle (14-17) and drew many more fouls (11-19) but simply could not hit their shots in this night - falling behind by 20 on a Reggie Perry dunk with 9:31 to play, 35-55, and never threatening.

2-Purdue vs. 31-Merrimack --- 15-Syracuse vs. 18-Georgetown

Purdue 74, Merrimack 53: After 2 NIT games that came down to final shots, Purdue dominated as expected behind 7-foot-3 Matt Haarms (12 pts, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks) and the sharp-shooting of Sasha Stefanovic (22 points). The game was not within 10 points after Stefanovic hit a 3-pointer to make it 44-34 with 16:51 to play. Jurvaris (16 points, 5 steals) led Merrimack, the biggest surprise team of their first season moving up from Division II to Division I and winning the NEC after being picked to finish 11th of 11 teams.

Syracuse 73, Georgetown 66: John Thompson's stunning upset in the final game played Syracuse in Syracuse's Manley Field House is so famous that if you start to type Manley Field House in google it will add the rest of Thompson's quote "Manley Field House is Officially Closed." Every game Georgetown trip to the currrent Carrier Dome brings back that memory, but on this game the strength of Syracuse forwards - superstar Elijah Hughes (12 points, 8 rebounds) and Marek Dolezaj (15, 8) dominated their Hoya rivals 27-8 in points and 16-11 in rebounds. With the promising backcourt of James Akinjo and Mac McClung play limited minutes each game based on their injury plagued season the backcourt did not have enough as Syracuse point guard Joseph Girard scored 20 points. Though it was close the whole way, Syracuse never trailed.

7-OK St. vs. 26-S. Alabama --- 10-Memphis vs. 23-Wright St.

Oklahoma State 70, South Alabama 58: South Alabama (USA) dominated the boards to lead 47-42 with 10:45 (18 possessions) to play, but USA big men Trhae Mitchell and later Josh Ajayi (8 points, 9 rebounds) fouled out to let Cameron McGriff (18 points, 8 rebounds) take over inside down the stretch to lead Oklahoma State's 70-58 NIT 1st round win.

Wright St. 72, Memphis 62. Memphis started the season with potentially the top player in the country in Wiseman and national title hopes, but ended with a 42-point loss to Cincinnati that would have left then in the NIT. Switching to our simulated NIT, it continued downhill with a 1st round NIT loss as the offense could not click despite 13 steals leading to many fast break chances. The Horizon League's Wright State continued Butler's tradition of upsets, dominating underneath with power forward Bill Wampler (18 points, 7 resbounds) and center Loudon Love (15,7) holding their two counterparts to a total of 15 and 11. Love is one of the few players who gets the ball on 3 of 8 die rolls when on the court, a 5,7 or 8.


3-Arkansas vs. 30-Murray St. --- 14-Tennessee vs. 19-South Carolina

Tennessee 62, South Carolina 58. During the real season included two defensive slugfests with the home teams winning - Tennessee 56-55, then South Carolina won 63-61. At the end of the season www.kenpom.com ranked Tennessee 68th and South Carolina 69th and overall we gave Tennessee the home court advantage based on an NIT 14-seed vs. a 19-seed for South Carolina in our Value Add NIT rematch. Once again, the home team won a defensive battle with Tennessee taking the game 62-58. Tournaments do not actually allow conference foes to meet in opening rounds but we simply seeded 1 to 32 and went straight by the match-ups. In the defensive battle, the Vols dominated inside for a 44-37 rebound edge that included Yves Pons (12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks) and John Fulkerson (8 points, 13 rebounds).


Arkansas 75,Murray State 70. Murray State's Anthony Smith drew 9 fouls including fouling out 3-point specialist Isaiah Joe to make it 53-46 Murray State. The Racers looked ready to follow-up on their real 1st round NCAA upset of Marquette. However last year Ja Morant was the best player in the court, and as good as Murray State's Tevin Brown (10 points, 7 rebounds), Arkansas' Jimmy Whitt (16 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals) was top www.valueaddbasketball.com player on the court and he took over in the final 2 minutes to avoid the upset. Whitt had 2 steals and dunk to lead a 6-0 run to end the game with the 75-70 win.

Arkansas vs Tennessee

6-N. Iowa vs. 27-Louisiana Tech --- 11-Minnesota vs. 22-Furman

Northern Iowa 66, Louisiana Tech 61. Northern Iowa never trailed, but when La Tech's DaQuan Bracket scored to tie it 61-61 with 1:30 to play it was up to Isaiah Brown to score his first points of the game. Brown drew a foul going up for a 3-pointer and was fouled, hitting 2 of 3 free throws for the 63-61 lead. AJ Green hit a 3-pointer on Northern Iowa's next trip to wrap up his game-high 17 point game and the 66-61 win.  Northern Iowa did get a bit of a home job with four missed calls going their way - one more than the average three more calls in a game.

Minnesota 75, Furman 66. Point guards Jordan Lyons (Furman) and Marcus Carr (Minnesota) tied for the 4th best scoring games of the first round (23 each) to keep it close, until Minnesota www.valueaddbasketball.com All-American Daniel 
Oturu took over the final 12 minutes. Oturu's 5 blocked shots were the second best total of the opening round, and one of them with 11:22 to go kept Minnesota within 48-46, and then he dunked on consecutive trips to make it 50-48. Oturu also grabbed 14 rebounds, the second most of anyone in the opening round, and added 18 points for the most dominant overall performance of the 16 opening round games.

Paragraph summary posted when each game ends, and photo of score sheet a starters posted here.











Thursday, July 30, 2020

NIT 2020 Playing Out as 36,000th Visitor to Value Add Basketball Game

Game results continue to be added most recent first - scroll down to "Game Results." Click here for the shorter description of each game. Top Performances at bottom of blog.

Thursday night basketball resumed in the bubble and the 36,000th visitor went to our free Value Add Basketball Game. In that light, we shifted for a night from our Statis-Pro basketball league. Using these player cards we already crowned the 2020 NCAA champ (Creighton defeated Duke in title game in tournament in which 37% of games were upsets - better seed went 40-23).  The all-time Champ (Bill Walton's UCLA, which did crush Creighton in a match of the two champions).

With 20 teams left, the A10, ACC, Amer, B10, B12, BE, BSth, CUSA, MVC, SEC, SC and Sum Conferences (using www.kenpom.com abbreviations) Are All Alive

Game Results - NIT that might have been (most recent game on top, so far 31% upsets, better seed 11-5). The accounts of each game with a score sheet appear below the bracket.





We did set up an NIT tournament, but had only played one game (Oklahoma State defeated South Alabama). Obviously the marque teams all played in our NCAA, so looking back at our bracket we decided to play the most evenly matched game. We seeded the 32 teams from 1 to 32 rather than four regions of 8 seeds, and that left 17-seed St. John's visiting 16-seed UConn.

Unlike our NCAA tournaments played at neutral sites, we use the home advantage for NIT games until the Final Four. The home advantage in the game is that the home team can always flip a dice roll of 36 and 66 to their advantage. In this traditional Big East match-up (UConn will return to the Big East this year) the Huskies did get three calls - all missed four calls that hurt St. John's. Caraher misses shot with 3:07 to go in the first half, Heron drove to the hoop with 15:01 to play and missed with a no call, and finally in overtime Dunn tried to break a 76-76 tie and missed after a no call.

11-Minnesota 75, 22-Furman 66. 

Point guards Jordan Lyons (Furman) and Marcus Carr (Minnesota) tied for the 4th best scoring games of the first round (23 each) to keep it close, until Minnesota www.valueaddbasketball.com All-American Daniel Oturu took over the final 12 minutes. Oturu's 5 blocked shots were the second best total of the opening round, and one of them with 11:22 to go kept Minnesota within 48-46, and then he dunked on consecutive trips to make it 50-48. Oturu also grabbed 14 rebounds, the second most of anyone in the opening round, and added 18 points for the most dominant overall performance of the 16 opening round games.




6-Northern Iowa 66, 27-Louisiana Tech 61

Northern Iowa never trailed, but when La Tech's DaQuan Bracket scored to tie it 61-61 with 1:30 to play it was up to Isaiah Brown to score his first points of the game. Brown drew a foul going up for a 3-pointer and was fouled, hitting 2 of 3 free throws for the 63-61 lead. AJ Green hit a 3-pointer on Northern Iowa's next trip to wrap up his game-high 17 point game and the 66-61 win.  Northern Iowa did get a bit of a home job with four missed calls going their way - one more than the average three more calls in a game.



12-Mississippi St. 69, 21-Tulsa 54.

Reggie Perry, a www.valueaddbasketball.com SEC All-Star, led a 7-man rotation with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Tulsa's balanced attack with four players in the top 10 percent of all players actually won the turnover battle (14-17) and drew many more fouls (11-19) but simply could not hit their shots in this night - falling behind by 20 on a Reggie Perry dunk with 9:31 to play, 35-55, and never threatening.



5-Rhode Island 79, 23-Radford 69.

In a match-up of 2 of the best point guards in the country, Radford's Carlick Jones (21 points, 9 fouls drawn) gave Fatts Russell (17 points, 5 steals) and his Rhode Island teammates all they could handle. Radford led 50-49 with 10:48 to play, however Rhode Island's mismatch edge at the other 4 positions - as the shooting guard (Jeff Dowton 18 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals) and small forward (21 points, 9 rebounds) helped them pull away for the double digit win.



14-Tennessee 62, 19-South Carolina 58

During the real season included two defensive slugfests with the home teams winning - Tennessee 56-55, then South Carolina won 63-61. At the end of the season www.kenpom.com ranked Tennessee 68th and South Carolina 69th and overall we gave Tennessee the home court advantage based on an NIT 14-seed vs. a 19-seed for South Carolina in our Value Add NIT rematch. Once again, the home team won a defensive battle with Tennessee taking the game 62-58. Tournaments do not actually allow conference foes to meet in opening rounds but we simply seeded 1 to 32 and went straight by the match-ups. In the defensive battle, the Vols dominated inside for a 44-37 rebound edge that included Yves Pons (12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks) and John Fulkerson (8 points, 13 rebounds).




29-South Dakota State 85, 4-St. Louis 83 (OT) - 68-68 to end of regulation. 

The Summit League's South Dakota State overcame a 14-point deficit, 24 fouls including both forwards  fouling out and a monster performance by Jordan Goodwin (29 points, 10 rebounds) to stun St. Louis in overtime. Center Matt Dentlinger scored only 4 points but blocked his 5th shot to prevent a game-winner at the buzzer to force overtime. Douglas Wilson then scored 8 of his 21 points in overtime before fouling out as they scored 17 in overtime for the win.



3-Arkansas 75, 30-Murray State 70

Murray State's Anthony Smith drew 9 fouls including fouling out 3-point specialist Isaiah Joe
To make it 53-46 Murray State. The Racers looked ready to follow-up on their real 1st round NCAA upset of Marquette. However last year Ja Morant was the best player in the court, and as good as Murray State's Tevin Brown (10 points, 7 rebounds), Arkansas' Jimmy Whitt (16 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals) was top www.valueaddbasketball.com player on the court and he took over in the final 2 minutes to avoid the upset. Whitt had 2 steals and dunk to lead a 6-0 run to end the game with the 75-70 win.



23-Wright St. 72, 10-Memphis 62: Memphis started the season with potentially the top player in the country in Wiseman and national title hopes, but ended with a 42-point loss to Cincinnati that would have left then in the NIT. Switching to our simulated NIT, it continued downhill with a 1st round NIT loss as the offense could not click despite 13 steals leading to many fast break chances. The Horizon League's Wright State continued Butler's tradition of upsets, dominating underneath with power forward Bill Wampler (18 points, 7 resbounds) and center Loudon Love (15,7) holding their two counterparts to a total of 15 and 11. Love is one of the few players who gets the ball on 3 of 8 die rolls when on the court, a 5,7 or 8.




9-Texas 84, 24-Colgate 82:
Texas coach Shaka Smart will only host his former team VCU in the 2nd round because his star Jericho Sims took over in the final minutes including the game-winner buzzer beater. The 44 possessions we play included 13 lead changes and 8 ties. Sims scored with 3:30 left to give Texas a 71-70 lead, then to tie it 73-73 on the next trip, then grabbed an offensive rebound and fed Courtney Ramsey to make it 75-73, then scored again for 77-75 lead for 6 points, and offensive rebound and assist in four trips. When Will Raymond capped his 27-point game with a game-tying 3-pointer to make it 82-82, before Sims beat the buzzer for the 84-82 win.



20-Alabama 77, 13-Notre Dame 68.
Alabama overcame 18 turnovers and a bit of a home job at South Bend with a barrage of 3-pointers to advance. On roughly 100 rolls of the 4 dice per game (44 possessions per team plus some offensive rebounds and extra possessions for steals-fast breaks or fouls in the last 9 possessions) there is a one in 36 chance of a bad call favoring the home team that can slip a roll of 36 (foul) and 66 (non foul). The refs missed four Notre Dame fouls, one more bad call than average. However, Bama hit four 3-pointers in their first 6 possessions to take a 32-20 lead and they never trailed behind double digits from their trio of stars in PG Kira Lewis (16 points), SG Jaden Shacelford (18) and John Petty (12).



 15-Syracuse 73, 18-Georgetown 66.  John Thompson's stunning upset in the final game played Syracuse in Syracuse's Manley Field House is so famous that if you start to type Manley Field House in google it will add the rest of Thompson's quote "Manley Field House is Officially Closed." Every game Georgetown trip to the currrent Carrier Dome brings back that memory, but on this game the strength of Syracuse forwards - superstar Elijah Hughes (12 points, 8 rebounds) and Marek Dolezaj (15, 8) dominated their Hoya rivals 27-8 in points and 16-11 in rebounds. With the promising backcourt of James Akinjo and Mac McClung play limited minutes each game based on their injury plagued season the backcourt did not have enough as Syracuse point guard Joseph Girard scored 20 points. Though it was close the whole way, Syracuse never trailed.




 25-VCU 76, 8-Stanford 61

The first big upset of the 2020 NIT started at Stanford with a 13-0 blitz from VCU that made it 33-20 out of the gate.  In a match-up of star shooting guards, VCU's De'Riante Jenkins stole the ball on two of the first four trips, and on two others back-up Corey Douglas grabbed offensive rebounds and on one of the steals Douglas completed a 4-point play off the steal from Jenkins.

The other match-up of big stars featred the two centers with similar last names, as VCU's Marcus Santos-Silva (9 points, 15 rebounds) dominated the boards while Stanford's Oscar da Silva (10 points, 7 rebounds) was strong with four blocked shots. However, the surprise games by Douglas (9 points, 3 rebounds in limited time) and small forward Issac Vann (19 points, 7 rebounds).


The upset brought back memories of VCU's team that Jay Bilas said should never have been invited to the tournament, but made the miracle run to the Final Four. That team is in our great teams in the game, featuring Bradford Burgess. When Burgess played for my alma mater, Benedictine High School, I once watched him help win a battle of two of Virginia's Top 10 teams. Our Cadets beat TC Williams, the inspiration for the movie Remember the Titans, and Burgess teammate and future NBA player Ed Davis had my favorite stat line ever - 30 points, 20 rebounds, 10 blocked shots.



 2-Purdue 74, 31-Merrimack 53

After 2 NIT games that came down to final shots, Purdue dominated as expected behind 7-foot-3 Matt Haarms (12 pts, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks) and the sharp-shooting of Sasha Stefanovic (22 points).

The game was not within 10 points after Stefanovic hit a 3-pointer to make it 44-34 with 16:51 to play. Jurvaris (16 points, 5 steals) led Merrimack, the biggest surprise team of their first season moving up from Division II to Division I and winning the NEC after being picked to finish 11th of 11 teams.


Here are the top players in the NEC.



 1-Xavier 79, 32-North Florida 77

North Florida's Ivan Gandia-Rosa, who just missed Atlantic Sun Value Add Player of the year, came within seconds of upsetting 1-seed Xavier. Having already drawn 5 fouls on Paul Scrugg's, he hit 2 free throws finish with 28 points and lead 77-76 with 16 seconds to play.

Quintin Gooden missed a potential game-winner for Xavier, but Tyrique Jones grabbed the offensive rebound (game-high 9), fed the ball to Naji Marshall who scored the game-winner despite being fouled and hit the free throw to finish with a team-high 15 and deliver the 79-77 win.


Here are the top rated ASun players in the past season.


17-St. John's 86, 16-UConn 83 (74-74 end of regulation)

Here is a picture of the score sheet and five starters for each team, except we accidentally put Mustapha Heron of St. John's on the second line of players even though he is a starter. You can click on and blow up the photo to see the running score and the stats marked for each players points, rebounds, steals, turnovers, blocks and fouls:


The team's players all now come on one sheet so you can cut them into 10 cards or just keep the sheet together.

The fact that St. John's even forced overtime was amazing, since UConn's Christian Vital (19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals) dominated for a stretch - on three straight trips hitting a 3-pointer, getting an offensive rebound and kicking out to Gilbert for a 3-pointer and then coming up with a steal and fast break dunk to complete an 8-0 run to go from down 32-33 to up 40-32.

With 6-foot-11 Carlton dominating (12 points and 12 rebounds) dominating the offensive boards against the smaller St. John's, UConn maintained the lead and led 60-50 with just 5 minutes to play.

However, St. John's then did one they do best, turning UConn over down the stretch. While the lack of height hurt until that point, center Champagnie had 6 steals en route to a team 16-8 edge in steals with several in the last 5 minutes. Figueroa hit two 3-pointers en route to his game high 23 points and Willams scored with 16 seconds left to close the amazing 24-14 run in the final 5 minutes to send the game into overtime 74-74.

With 1:30 left, St. John's had a 4-point trip when Dunn stole the ball and scored on the fast break while being fouled, then missed the free throw by Champagnie who put it in to cut the score to 71-65.

Dunn and Figueroa took over in OT to advance St. John's 86-83 to face the winner of 1-seed Xavier vs. 32-seed North Florida.

Here is the complete bracket, followed by the breakdown of the one NIT game we played before the break.


NIT Games with Home Court Advantage

7-Oklahoma State 70, 26-South Alabama 58

South Alabama (USA) dominated the boards to lead 47-42 with 10:45 (18 possessions) to play.

However, USA big men Trhae Mitchell and later Josh Ajayi (8 points, 9 rebounds) fouled out to let Cameron McGriff (18 points, 8 rebounds) take over inside down the stretch to lead Oklahoma State's 70-68 NIT 1st round win.

Since our NCAA tournament was played using neutral court rules, this was the first time a game was played as a home game, and two calls hurt USA. The refs missed a call (36 roll) that prevented Mitchell from hitting a 3-pointer and instead caused a turnover. Later Mitchell's 5th foul was on a good call but one that would have been overlooked (also 36 roll) if South Alabama were at home.

From the time Mitchell fouled out USA was outscored 28-11 in part because of several OSU baskets on shots Mitchell would have blocked if still in the game.

With the other two front line players fouled out, USA's Chad Lott (16 points) kept it close for a while, but OSU's point guard Isaac Likelele (9 points, 5 steals) helped OSU win the turnover battle 16 to 8.

The following photo is of the first game played with the team sheets rather than the bigger playing cards. All 10 players on each team are on their sheet, though in the photo we just show the 5.starters across the top and the scoresheet at the top.




Top points; Goodwin (St. Louis) 29, Gamdia-Rosa (N.Florida) 28, Rayman (Colgate) 27, Figueroa (St. John's) 23, Stefanovic (Purdue) 22.

Top Rebounds; Santos-Silva (VCU) 15, Mooney (ND) 13, Fulkerson (Tennessee) 13, French (St. Louis) 12, Holland (Radford) 12.

Top Steals; Champagnie (St. John's ) 6, Likekel (OK St.) 5, Hayes (Merrimack) 5, Jenkins (VCU) 5, Lomax (Memphis ) 5, Russell (Rhode Island) 5.

Top Blocks; Sidibe (Syracuse) 6, Dentlinger (South Dakota State) 5, Langevine (Rhode Island) 5, Haarms (Purdue ) 4, da Silva (Stanford ) 4, Pons (Tennessee) 4.

Biggest Margin - Purdue +21 vs Merrimack 74-53, runner-up VCU and Mississippi State +15 each

Best offense - Texas 84-82 in regulation past Colgate, runner-up Colgate in same game.

Best Defense - Purdue 74-53 vs Merrimack, runner-up Mississippi State vs Tulsa 69-54