VABG Strategy Tips and Adjustments After Classic Simulated Texas Tech 1993-Oklahoma 2002 Game

One of the ultimate even Value Add Basketball Game debut match-ups gave an example of why we need to play every team once to catch any tweaks to the cards. As Texas Tech 1993 and Oklahoma 2002 battled in a classic simulated overtime showdown, a couple of tweaks became evident that we have now made to the Texas Tech cards.

First, because of their strong bench and balance we gave their reserves three more possessions than the standard team from before minutes played are available, letting the bench play possessions 44-35, then the starters 34-1. A little "oops" there, as the math does work on that except for of course Sheryl Swoopes, the No. 1 pick in the first WNBA draft who we rank as the 18th greatest college player ever, and looked pretty good in this one-on-one against Michael Jordan, should not sit on the bench for the first 10 possessions. We changed her suggested possessions played to the whole game, 44-1, and had Melinda White and Kim Pruitt both get just five possessions to split time at the 2-Shooting Guard possession.

Second, we had put White and Pruitt at 4-Power Forward and 5-Center because they were taller reserves, but their low rebounding range was allowing Oklahoma to dominate the boards. Centers have the most chances at rebounds so you want the best rebounder there, so Janice Farris moved to back-up center, and forwards get the second most chances so we moved Nikki Heath to 4-PF.  You like to put the best steal ranges in the two guard position, so hated to move Heath from guard since she also gets a lot of steals, but it was more important to stop the Oklahoma board domination early. 

That still left the 1-point guard Stephanie Scott at the guard position in order to have a chance at steals. Any time a guard steals the ball the team has a better chance to score because all guard steals can be used to start a fast break - meaning the 20-sided die roll is reduced by 1 to give a 5% better chance at a 3-pointer, 2-pointer or foul drawn on the break. When a forward steals the ball they can only start a fast break on an odd number (11, 13, 15 or 31). A center can never start a fast break with a steal.

Even with these in game adjustments, Oklahoma did an unbelievable job of keeping the ball out of Sheryl Swoopes hands - quite a feat since she gets the ball 37.5% of die rolls as a 3, 7 or 8 on the 8-sided die. They held her to just 12 points, less than half of her average, but her 10 rebounds and 5 steals and then passes to teammates set up many crucial baskets down the stretch to hold off a big run by Oklahoma's future WNBA backcourt of Stacey Dales and Laneishea Caufield, who combined for 33 points. Here is the adjusted Texas Tech line-up that is now in the game.

Thrilling Final Minutes and OT

With four possessions (2:07 to play), Texas Tech led 66-61 but Stacey Dales scored and drew a foul, completing the traditional 3-point play to gut it to 66-64.

Michi Atkins had drawn a 5th foul on Caton Hill, but back-up Dionnah Jackson-Durrett came through by drawing a foul and hit one of two to make it 69-69. However, she missed the second shot and Swoopes grabbed the rebound and scored at the other end to make it 71-69 Texas Tech. However, Stacey Dales beat the buzzer with a game-tying shot to force overtime 71-71.

While Jackson-Durrett was playing tired (more possessions than Stamina on her card) the final few minutes of regulation so all rolls of the 20-sided die and 11-66 dice rolls in which she had the ball or was guarding were adjusted 1 against her whenever it helped Texas Tech. Michi Atkins for Texas Tech was also a freshman who would become a starz averaging 21 points and 12 rebounds a game once she was a senior.

However, when overtime starts, all players on both teams are considered tired so noone has the disadvantage. No longer with a disadvantage, Dionnah Jackson-Durrett came up with a big basket and drew a 4th foul on Swoopes to give Oklahoma 76-73 lead and mean one more foul on Swoopes would be a disaster for Texas Tech. Jackson-Durrett was just a freshman for this season, and as indicated in the box score averaged 7.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists that season. However, the next two seasons she was 2nd team all-Big 12 and her senior year averaged 15 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists a game to go 1st team all-Big 12 and go as a 1st round pick in the WNBA draft.

However, Swoopes took over from there with three rebounds and two steals in the final minutes of overtime to pull Texas Tech back to an 80-79 win.

Then in the most unlikely play of the game, Oklahoma's best free throw shooter Laneishea Caufield drew a foul and went to the line only needing to hit two free throws - meaning roll a 1-17 (85% free throw shooter) on the 20-sided die twice to take the lead - but missed both with a roll of 18 and then 19 and the Sooners never scored again and had to foul twice to stop the clock as Texas Tech won 85-79.

We count overtime games as a 1-point margin no matter the final score. Going into these debut games, both teams were in a 4-way tie for 47th. Texas Tech moves up to a 2-way tie in 45th place with Kentucky (who will play LSU) while Oklahoma drops slightly to a 2-way tie with Virginia Tech for 50th.

The Actual Seasons

This was the one game we picked as EVEN with no favorite. Texas Tech 1993 split with Texas during the season as both dominated the Southwestern Conference to finish as co-champions at 13-1 - but neither was in the top 10 until Texas Tech broke it late in the season, then beat Texas for the conference tournament title and then made a bit of a surprise run to the national title.

By 2002, they were both in the Big 12 (after the SWC and Big 8 merged) and Oklahoma also split with Texas during the season, but looked like more of the national champion threat as a top 5 team every week of the season, including beating Baylor for the Big 12 tournament title and then beating that Texas Tech team as well as 1-seed Duke in the Final 4 before falling to UConn for the second time in the season to finish as runner-up. 

Pos	Texas Tech 1993	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	At	Re	St	Bk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast	Pt
1-PG	Krista Gerlich	17	4	2	1	2	1	1	1	3	5'10, 12.9, 4.9, 5.3	17
2-SG	Noel Johnson	7	1	2	0	0	4	1	0	2	5'7, 8.8, 3.8, 3.6	7
3-SF	Sheryl Swoopes	12	0	5	2	2	10	5	1	4	6'0, 28.1, 9.2, 4.1	12
4-PF	Michi Atkins	15	0	6	3	7	5	1	0	2	6'1, 9.2, 5.1, 0.4	15
5-C	Cynthia Clinger	10	0	5	0	0	9	0	3	1	6'2, 10.7, 4.4, 0.6	10
Pos	TTU Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	At	Re	St	Bk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast	Pt
1-PG	Stephanie Scott	8	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	5'9, 4.5, 3.0, 3.9	8
2-SG	Nikki Heath	6	0	1	4	6	1	0	0	2	5'9, 2.5, 2.8, 0.7	6
3-SF	Janice Farris	6	0	3	0	0	4	0	0	2	5'11, 6.0, 3.2, 1.2	6
4-PF	Kim Pruitt	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	6'1, 2.0, 0.7, 0.2	2
5-C	Melinda White	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'11, 2.3, 1.4, 0.1	2
	17 Turnovers	85	7	27	10	17	39	8	5	20		85
Pos	Oklahoma 2002	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	At	Re	St	Bk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast	Pt
1-PG	Stacey Dales	19	1	7	2	2	3	2	0	2	6'0, 17.0, 5.0, 4.9	19
2-SG	Laneishea Caufield	14	0	7	0	2	2	2	0	2	5'9, 17.4, 5.0, 2.6	14
3-SF	Rosalind Ross	15	1	4	4	6	5	1	2	1	5'9, 11.6, 5.3, 2.2	15
4-PF	Caton Hill	2	0	1	0	0	8	2	3	5	6'1, 12.6, 6.9, 2.1	2
5-C	Jamie Talbert	10	0	5	0	0	5	1	2	1	6'2, 7.8, 5.0, 1.0	10
Pos	OU Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	At	Re	St	Bk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast	Pt
1-PG	Kate Scott	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'10, 1.5, 0.5, 0.6	2
2-SG	Dionnah Jackson-Durrett	8	0	3	2	5	2	0	0	3	5'9, 7.3, 4.7, 2.9	8
3-SF	Lauren Shoush	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'11, 1.3, 1.3, 0.7	4
4-PF	Stephanie Simon	3	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	1	6'0, 1.2, 1.2, 0.2	3
5-C	Lindsey Casey	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	6'1, 1.6, 0.6, 0.0	2
	18 Turnovers	79	2	32	9	17	31	8	7	18		79

All games are tracked on this google sheet with this game and the other eight yet to play at the top. Each team's starting rating appears first, as a measure of how many points better or worse their cards appear to be than the average great team in the game. The next column shows how much they were favored or underdog in that game. When we add results such as this game, a game score is calculated based on the margin (overtime margin is always reduced to 1 point), then the margin of victory or defeat, then and extra +3 or -3 based on if the team won or lost. Finally, if one team is at home (thus can flip rolls from 36 to 66 or vice versa) then they get a -4 and the road team gets a +4, but we are playing the games below as neutral court. Finally the Game Score is adjusted for the opponents team rating. These ratings are very similar to those at www.kenpom, except he does not adjust for who wins or loses a game.

Clark to Boston for Fever Win; We Retro Great 1st WNBA Player Swoopes vs. Oklahoma

 The Dallas Mavericks kept the NBA season alive by avoiding a sweep by the Boston Celtics, and the Indiana Fever put together only their fourth win of the season. You can click this YouTube game highlights, including this last moment in which they trailed Atlanta. Caitlin Clark had just driving toward the hoop and then given one of her patented passes to the star of the game Aliyah Boston, who was in the process of putting in the game-winning shot.

While Clark is not one of top few players in the league yet as a rookie, when she plays and average of 15,591 fans turn out, more than twice as many as turn out for other WNBA games, according to sportsnaut. In her first year overall WNBA TV viewership has almost tripled. We rank her the 8th greatest college player of all time - and included our ranking of the top 40 players of all time in our previous blog.previous blog.

Next up in our game will be the 18th greatest player of all time on our list, Sheryl Swoopes, who will debut in our Value Add Basketball Game with her Texas Tech 1993 team in what would have been a SWC or Big 12 matchup over the years against Oklahoma 2002. While Swoopes averaged 28 points a game (see box score for all stats of players below photo) the game rates as dead even with the Sooners great backcourt of future WNBA players Laneishea Caufield and Stacey Dales, who combined to average 34 points a game this senior season.

This video shows Swoops 47 point performance in one game. pparently some of the google docs to women's teams were requiring permission, and we apologize and have fixed that so anyone should be able to open and print the teams of your choice in view only or by downloading the doc to word. We will also provide a drop box option once we've double checked player cards on these last 10 teams to debut. We track ratings and all scores on this google sheet.google sheet.

You can click this YouTube video of the Fever win:

The game was such a classic, that we decided to make it a separate blog rather than just add it below.

The following is the starting box score, with the stats each player gets by position before the first roll of the dice. This is reflected on the scoresheet with the game. All 10 players get one basket made, a rebound and a foul to start the game at 20-20. The starting guards start with 1 steal, and each team starts with 3 other turnovers for 5 turnovers total. Then the starting forwards and center get an extra rebound to start with 2. The center also starts with 1 blocked shot.

Pos	Texas Tech 2003	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Krista Gerlich	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	5'10, 12.9, 4.9, 5.3
2-SG	Noel Johnson	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	5'7, 8.8, 3.8, 3.6
3-SF	Sheryl Swoopes	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'0, 28.1, 9.2, 4.1
4-PF	Michi Atkins	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'1, 9.2, 5.1, 0.4
5-C	Cynthia Clinger	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	6'2, 10.7, 4.4, 0.6
Pos	TTU Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Stephanie Scott	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'9, 4.5, 3.0, 3.9
2-SG	Nikki Heath	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'9, 2.5, 2.8, 0.7
3-SF	Janice Farris	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'11, 6.0, 3.2, 1.2
4-PF	Kim Pruitt	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'1, 2.0, 0.7, 0.2
5-C	Melinda White	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'11, 2.3, 1.4, 0.1
	3 Turnovers	20	0	10	0	0	13	2	1	10
Pos	Oklahoma 2002	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Stacey Dales	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	6'0, 17.0, 5.0, 4.9
2-SG	Laneishea Caufield	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	5'9, 17.4, 5.0, 2.6
3-SF	Rosalind Ross	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	5'9, 11.6, 5.3, 2.2
4-PF	Caton Hill	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'1, 12.6, 6.9, 2.1
5-C	Jamie Talbert	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	6'2, 7.8, 5.0, 1.0
Pos	OU Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht, Pts, Reb, Ast
1-PG	Kate Scott	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'10, 1.5, 0.5, 0.6
2-SG	Dionnah Jackson-Durrett	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'9, 7.3, 4.7, 2.9
3-SF	Lauren Shoush	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5'11, 1.3, 1.3, 0.7
4-PF	Stephanie Simon	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'0, 1.2, 1.2, 0.2
5-C	Lindsey Casey	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'1, 1.6, 0.6, 0.0
	3 Turnovers	20	0	10	0	0	13	2	1	10