Mountain West Perhaps Merge with Pac-12 and Return of Value Add Basketball Rankings

All-Mountain West	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Steven Ashworth	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
Jaedon LeDee	San Diego St.	8.17	111.5	90.4	5-seed, 32-7, Poss 24.5%
Jaelen House	New Mexico	7.59	114	102.5	22-12 (PG), Poss 26.9%
Isaiah Stevens	Colorado St.	6.13	111.9	106.1	15-18 (PG), Poss 28.1%
EJ Harkless	UNLV	6.03	104.3	99.7	19-13 (PG), Poss 33.2%
HM-Mountain West Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Camden Vander Zwaag	Air Force	5.84	121.5	104.5	14-18, Poss 16.7%
Marcus Shaver	Boise St.	5.74	99.8	95.1	10-seed, 24-10 (PG), Poss 26.3%
Patrick Cartier	Colorado St.	5.52	116.3	106.1	15-18, Poss 24.7%
Omari Moore	San Jose St.	5.08	110	102.6	21-14, Poss 28.1%

From the rubble of the disasterous Pac-12 decision to treat revenue sustaining football and basketball as any more important than the Olympic sports they sustain, the one intriguing proposal making the rounds was the Pac-12 partnering to set up a "relegation" system with other conferences. The idea would be to follow the soccer model of having teams in the highest conference (presumably the Pac-12) play and each year the bottom couple drop to a lower conference and the top couple from the lower conference move up to the Pac-12 for the next season.

This is pure speculation, but with Washington State and Oregon State having pure control of all Pac-12 decisions as the only remaining members for next season, if others would agree it seems adding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's and then the four Missouri Conference NCAA tournament teams to a Pac-12 would be a very exciting eight for basketball (we are not pondering football here). The would leave seven in the MWC, add an eighth like maybe UC Irvine, play a season and start the relegation and advancement. Sounds easier on the back of a napkin then the logistics that it would entail, but with the Mountain West headlines for the unheard of four bids they seem like the non-Power Conference bell of the ball right now.

Above is a very late All-Mountain West Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

Note from below that Steven Ashworth was not only our MVP of the conference, but an also an all-American, but has transferred to Creighton for this season.

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed23	Rnk24
Air Force	MWC	MWC	MWC		194
Boise St.	MWC	MWC	MWC	10	81
Colorado St.	MWC	MWC	MWC		26
Fresno St.	MWC	MWC	MWC		155
Nevada	MWC	MWC	MWC	11	44
New Mexico	MWC	MWC	MWC		52
San Diego St.	MWC	MWC	MWC	5	20
San Jose St.	MWC	MWC	MWC		121
UNLV	MWC	MWC	MWC		125
Utah St.	MWC	MWC	MWC	10	60
Wyoming	MWC	MWC	MWC		177

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Player Cards for the Final Four Teams

 Here are the Value Add Basketball Game player cards for the Final Four teams. We also are printing any other great teams in the game from the same school in past seasons. We will list them alphabetically, starting with Connecticut (as well as their 2004 and 1999 national champs), then Florida Atlantic making their first appearance in the game, then unbelievably from only 50 miles south Miami (with their 2013 team as well), and concluding with San Diego as well as their 2011 team.

Connecticut (UConn) Final Four 2023 Team

Here are the favorites, the UConn Huskies who have now beaten all 15 non-Big East foes by double figures, including Alabama during the season and the entire tournament.

The second of three UConn teams we include are the 2004 national champs.

Here are the first national champions from UConn, the 1999 squad.

Florida Atlantic Final Four 2023 Team

Here is the Final Four Florida Atlantic team, the first from the school to make our great teams collection.

Miami FL Final Four 2023 Team

Here are the Final Four Miami Hurricanes.

Miami had one previous team in the game - the 2013 ACC regular season and tournament champion team led by Shane Larkin, son of the great Cincinnati Reds shortstop Barry Larkin.

San Diego State Final Four 2023 Team

And here is the 2023 San Diego State team.

The one previous San Diego State team included in our great teams features Kawhi Leonard from 2011.

Top Small Forwards in College Basketball This Year

Note: While www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com analytics flagging Chattanooga's Malachi Smith as the 2nd best small forward in the country, we have been informed that in fact he plays point guard - where he would also rank as the 2nd best player at the country barely behind Villanova's Collin Gillespie. We will update for his next post, but we would still consider Smith a 2nd Team All-American at this point - just at a different position. (The analytics are thrown off because he grabs so many defensive rebounds that he appears to be a small forward rather than a point guard statistically).

 In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "small forward" the player who has some combination of more defensive rebounds, blocked shots and height than two guards on the team, and typically more assists and steals then the two players on the team we consider the center and power forward. In many cases in modern basketball this is really a third guard, but either way it is the "3" position on the court.  (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and other positions are adjusted, but the average Small Forward actually is right about the average overall player, so their calculations are not adjusted before being entered at  at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced players. However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen small forwards in college basketball, starting with one of three Arizona players we would put on the Freshman All-American team - Bennedict Mathurin - who improves his team by 7.32 points per game. This means Arizona would have LOST any game that they won by fewer than seven points if he had not played..

In his case, he improves the Arizona's offense by 5.55 points per game, while his defensive rating of -1.77 indicates he takes one to two points more away from the opposing team then a typical replacement small forward. Here are the most valuable 10 freshmen small forwards through games of February 15.

Rnk	Top Freshmen Small Forwards	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
9	Bennedict Mathurin #0	Arizona	7.32	P12	6'6"	Fr
17	Kendall Brown #2	Baylor	6.07	B12	6'8"	Fr
38	Ricky Council #4	Wichita St.	4.97	Amer	6'6"	Fr
53	Alijah Martin #15	Florida Atlantic	4.41	CUSA	6'2"	Fr
56	Jadon Jones #12	Long Beach St.	4.4	BW	6'5"	Fr
90	Zeke Mayo #2	South Dakota St.	3.44	Sum	6'3"	Fr
93	Houston Mallette #0	Pepperdine	3.41	WCC	6'5"	Fr
100	Caleb Houstan #22	Michigan	3.28	B10	6'8"	Fr
101	Bryce McGowens #5	Nebraska	3.27	B10	6'7"	Fr
105	Ra'Heim Moss #0	Toledo	3.21	MAC	6'4"	Fr

If you were picking an All-American team based by position, the Small Forward or "3" spot would be the toughest choice. Mathurin certainly is close enough to the top players to be considered due to freshmen surging at the end of the year. However, Wisconsin's Johnny Davis, San Diego State's Matt Bradley, Chattanooga's Malachi Smith, Loyola's Lucas Williamson and Iowa State's Izaiah Brockingham could all be serious considered as the most valuable small forward in college basketball.

 

Rnk	Top Overall Small Forwards (3)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Matt Bradley #3	San Diego St.	9.3	MWC	6'4"	Sr
2	Malachi Smith #13	Chattanooga	8.84	SC	6'4"	So
3	Ochai Agbaji #30	Kansas	8.6	B12	6'5"	Sr
4	Lucas Williamson #1	Loyola Chicago	8.28	MVC	6'4"	Sr
5	Johnny Davis #1	Wisconsin	7.9	B10	6'5"	So
6	Izaiah Brockington #1	Iowa St.	7.79	B12	6'4"	Sr
7	Keon Ellis #14	Alabama	7.48	SEC	6'6"	Sr
8	Wendell Moore #0	Duke	7.34	ACC	6'5"	Jr
9	Bennedict Mathurin #0	Arizona	7.32	P12	6'6"	Fr
10	Darryl Morsell #32	Marquette	7.04	BE	6'5"	Sr
11	George Papas #5	Monmouth	7.04	MAAC	6'5"	Sr
12	Tevin Brown #10	Murray St.	6.92	OVC	6'5"	Jr
13	Isiaih Mosley #1	Missouri St.	6.58	MVC	6'5"	Jr
14	Julian Strawther #0	Gonzaga	6.49	WCC	6'7"	So
15	Kameron McGusty #23	Miami FL	6.4	ACC	6'5"	Sr
16	Davonte Gaines #3	George Mason	6.08	A10	6'7"	Jr
17	Kendall Brown #2	Baylor	6.07	B12	6'8"	Fr
18	Colby Jones #3	Xavier	6.04	BE	6'6"	So
19	Mark Smith #13	Kansas St.	6.04	B12	6'4"	Sr
20	Jules Bernard #1	UCLA	5.94	P12	6'7"	Sr
21	Kyler Edwards #11	Houston	5.91	Amer	6'4"	Sr
22	Taz Sherman #12	West Virginia	5.88	B12	6'4"	Sr
23	Teddy Allen #0	New Mexico St.	5.85	WAC	6'6"	Jr
24	Johnny Juzang #3	UCLA	5.78	P12	6'7"	Jr
25	Cam Spencer #12	Loyola MD	5.78	Pat	6'4"	Jr
26	Aaron Estrada #4	Hofstra	5.74	CAA	6'3"	Jr
27	Daylen Kountz #1	Northern Colorado	5.7	BSky	6'4"	Sr
28	Hakim Hart #13	Maryland	5.66	B10	6'8"	Jr
29	Tyler Burton #3	Richmond	5.59	A10	6'7"	Jr
30	De'Monte Buckingham #10	UNC Greensboro	5.49	SC	6'4"	Sr
31	Brandon Slater #3	Villanova	5.45	BE	6'7"	Sr
32	Sasha Stefanovic #55	Purdue	5.37	B10	6'5"	Sr
33	Adrian Delph #20	Appalachian St.	5.3	SB	6'3"	Sr
34	Kellan Grady #31	Kentucky	5.13	SEC	6'5"	Sr
35	Drew Peterson #13	USC	5.07	P12	6'9"	Jr
36	Tanner Holden #2	Wright St.	5.04	Horz	6'6"	Jr
37	Drake Jeffries #0	Wyoming	5.01	MWC	6'5"	Sr
38	Ricky Council #4	Wichita St.	4.97	Amer	6'6"	Fr
39	Charles Pride #5	Bryant	4.92	NEC	6'4"	Jr
40	Hyunjung Lee #1	Davidson	4.88	A10	6'7"	Jr
41	Andrew Jones #1	Texas	4.88	B12	6'4"	Sr
42	Chuck O'Bannon #5	TCU	4.87	B12	6'6"	Sr
43	Taze Moore #4	Houston	4.84	Amer	6'5"	Sr
44	Gabe Brown #44	Michigan St.	4.77	B10	6'8"	Sr
45	Jared Rhoden #14	Seton Hall	4.76	BE	6'6"	Sr
46	Ethan Wright #14	Princeton	4.61	Ivy	6'4"	Sr
47	Erik Stevenson #10	South Carolina	4.6	SEC	6'4"	Sr
48	David Jones #32	DePaul	4.59	BE	6'6"	So
49	Alex O'Connell #5	Creighton	4.53	BE	6'6"	Sr
50	Kane Williams #12	Georgia St.	4.52	SB	6'4"	Sr