All-Conference Teams Announced for Entire US at Mid-Season

From the Big East to the Mountain West (top photo), see all 32 All-Conference teams, players of the year, offensive and defensive players of the year and freshman of the year through half the season.

Duke's Zion' #1 Ranked Defender, #2 Offense After Howard's 53-pt Game

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Duke's Zion; #1 Ranked Defender, #2 Offense after Howard's 53-pt game

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John Pudner, Value Add Sports via bluehornet.com	11:35 AM (42 minutes ago)
to me

Duke's Zion Williamson ranks as the top defender of 4,088 college basketball players, and just missed being the only player to ever ranked as both the best offensive and defensive player in the country at the same time when Markus Howard's Big East record 53-point performance nudged him out for the top spot in the new Value Add Basketball rankings..
The rankings for all 4,088 players can be sorted by conference or team at www.valueaddbasketball.com, or on this google sheet for those who want to export the data, and you are free to reuse as long as your reference www.valueaddbasketball.com. To better able you to give credit to more players on your team or conference, we also noted any player who ranks as one of the top 500 defensive or offensive players in the notes column. We are working on a temporary glitch in the database that is causing each player to appear twice, so keep in mind if a players ranking is listed twice just cut the ratings in half (e.g. if ranking is 999 and 1000, he is really the 500th ranked player). A 9999 appears by any player who is not ranked.
The thing that sets the Value Add Basketball rankings apart from others is the calculation of how well players guard opponents as part of the ranking, which we outline using the pretty bad defense in the Marquette - Creighton game as a sample game. Please see the CBS Sports 247 story including the interview with Markus Howard by clicking on the image below, and this story also provides a sample table of how everything a player does in a game to help or hurt his team - including many mistakes such as the foul, turnovers and missed shots by Howard that were more than offset by his 44 positive plays during his 43 minutes on the court. For those of you who confuse Markus and me, it is true we are/were both Marquette journalism students, but I was the better shot blocker during my runs to the Marquette intramural Final Four and two more recent titles (Wetumpka YMCA, Montgomery YMCA) and he is the one with the top four scoring games - 53, 52, 45, 45 - in 101 years of actual Marquette basketball. After watching this interview and listening to my kids ridicule my jokes, I believe he is also a lot more funny than I am. The full disclosure that I am a Marquette fan is provided also with a note that the rankings for all seasons from 2002 to current are all based on the formulas I developed that were covered by Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and others, so my personal opinions do not impact any player's ranking whether he be at Marquette or my hometown Auburn or one of the other 351 Division 1 schools. See also the @valueaddsports Facebook or www.pudnersports.com blog for more information on my basketball and baseball projections. - John Pudner, 404.606.3163

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Calculating defensive rating for guarding opponents

In 2011, this post broke down the defensive calculations for the Value Add Basketball rankings for all college players from 2002 to the present. While the rankings received national praise, this continues to be the most underappreciated aspect of the rankings. We will periodically list the four defensive considerations in the Notes field to show each qualifying players grade from 0 to 10 in each:

DefR = Defensive Rebounding

Blk = Blocked Shots

Stl = Steals

Guard = The most important defensive factor is the ability to guard opponents to deny them the ball, force them into bad shots, and create turnovers, and a small consideration for avoiding fouling, all weighted by the level of offenses faced and the minutes on the floor on defense.

For example, Zion Williamson had notes field on January 19, 2019 that read DefR 9^ Blk 10^ Stl 10^ Guard 7 for his rating of 0 to 10 in each of the four categories. The math that went into calculating that he was the top defender in the country and taking away 3.52 points per game from an opponent compared to how many they would score against a replacement defender. However, the four ratings on the 1 to 10 scale at least gives an idea of which aspects of defense are strong or weak.

While other systems rank the first three, they ignore the fact that these three together are less important than guarding your opponent and a player who scores a lot of points but allows opposing players to cut to the rim in 100-90 losses is not nearly as valuable as a player who scores even half as many points and helps his team pull out 50-40 wins.

The following is a breakdown of how these factors play out in a given game, in this case Marquette's defensive effort at Creighton in 2019, which was not good overall but was overcome by Markus Howard setting the Big East record with 53 points that night.

Running total	Figure	Explanation
4.85	4.85	More defensive rebounds than one-third of missed shot, worth one point each (MU grabbed 29 of 35 CU misses, 4.85 more than typical 69%)
1.66	2.48	more blocks than typical based on number of 2-point shots taken worth 0.67 points each (CU 32 two-point shots typically result in 3.52 blocks, but MU blocked 6)
-3.68	-3.68	more steals than expected based on trips down the court worth one point each (MU 80 defensive possessions typical 5.68 steals, but only had 2 steals)
2.83		Total Points taken away (or added if a negative) based on blocks, steals and rebounds
104.00		actual points scored by opponent
106.83		anticipated points allowed if if blocks, steals and defensive rebounds average (total of the previous 2 numbers to reverse engineer)
82.16	80	how many points would have been scored if 1.027 per possessions in the game
-24.67		how good was the guarding defense based on points less than expected not counting blocks, steals and rebounds
-0.11	225	how good or bad (if negative) the guarding defense was after using the number of minutes played in the game (200 if ends in regulation, add 25 for each overtime)
-4.72	43	based on the players minutes played, how many points did the player take away or add with good or bad defense

That was the defensive side to this post on the Marquette CBS 247 page. Beyond those defensive
considerations, the following are the only possible plays in a game that Markus Howard did
NOT have during the game and how valuable each of those plays is.

Only things Markus Howard did NOT do in game	Value
Made 2-point show and drew foul (unassisted)	1.67
Made 2-point show and drew foul (assisted)	1.33
Steal	1
Draw 3-shot foul	1
Offensive Rebound	0.67
Draw 1-and-1 foul shots	0.11
Foul drawn but no free throws	0.1
Missed deadball FT, no rebound chance	-0.67
Miss front end of 1-and-1	-0.74

It appears the one thing a player can do that hurts their team the most in all of basketball is missing the front end of a 1-and-1, since an average free throw shooter scores 1.11 points per one-on-one opportunity, so in the just under 3 out of 9 times the front end is missed it means the player secured 0.00 or the average 1.11 points. However, because the team does have a one-third chance of an offensive rebound, there is a chance the get the miss and score so it counts as a -0.74. We do not have a way to break down the slightly lower chance of an offensive rebound on a free throw miss verses and attempted field goal.

Statis-Pro Setup of Game with Greinke vs. Springer Sample Result

Most current season updates here.

Here is how I set up the Statis-Pro baseball game, showing a game I just played between the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks that is in the game log. I actually show the components of both the traditional Fast Action Card version which I use for most games, but also the components to play the free dice version I use when I travel - which you can use if you do not have a fast action deck.

Statis-Pro Baseball Options for Play

1.   Top: EITHER Statis-Pro Player cards OR Statis-Pro sheets with player on each row (note the Astros batters are top left, and we keep a business card under the batter - George Springer - and another under pitcher for the Diamondbacks in the bottom right – in this case Zack Greinke)

2.   Bottom Right: EITHER Fast Action Cards (FAC) OR 5 Dice. We stopped for this photo after a “9” by the PB on the red FAC card (which in the dice version would have been the same as rolling the 9 as shown) meant Greinke could not keep the action in his PB2-8 range so the next card’s RN would refer to Springer’s sheet, and with the RN coming up a “26” on that card (which would have been the same as rolling a green “2” and white “6” on the 8-sided dice for “26” if we were playing the dice version) resulted in a home run (Springer’s highest double number in the row is “25”, he has no triples, and his highest home run is “32” so 26 falls in the homer range.

3.   Bottom Left: IF Fast Action Cards THEN Out Charts A – C, BUT IF dice THEN Printed Out Charts for 1-20. In this case if the result had been an “Out” instead of a home run the FAC shows the play was a “G3” (ground out to first) which would have also resulted in the dice version if the 20-sided die read “4” as shown by that chart.

4.   Right: EITHER scoresheet OR just a sheet of paper to record line-ups and results

Top 100 Defensive Players in College Basketball

Here are the top 100 defenders in college basketball based on calculations at www.valueaddbasketball.com as of December 29, 2018. These are the personal AdjD calculations, which tells you how much each player lowers his team's AdjD at www.kenpom.com. This system was developed in 2011 and explained in this post and has undergone only minor adjustments.

Rnk	Top 100 Defenders	Team	Height	Conf	Class	AdjD
1	Matisse Thybulle	Washington	6-foot-5	P12	4 Sr	-4.45
2	Ethan Happ	Wisconsin	6-foot-10	B10	4 Sr	-4.32
3	Zion Williamson	Duke	6-foot-7	ACC	1 Fr	-4.14
4	Nicolas Claxton	Georgia	6-foot-11	SEC	2 So	-4.11
5	Dedric Lawson	Kansas	6-foot-9	B12	3 Jr	-4.04
6	Tyler Bey	Colorado	6-foot-7	P12	2 So	-3.89
7	Matt Mooney	Texas Tech	6-foot-3	B12	4 Sr	-3.8
8	Bruno Fernando	Maryland	6-foot-10	B10	2 So	-3.72
9	Jon Teske	Michigan	7-foot-1	B10	3 Jr	-3.68
10	Matt Rafferty	Furman	6-foot-8	SC	4 Sr	-3.61
11	Ty Jerome	Virginia	6-foot-5	ACC	3 Jr	-3.59
12	Ed Polite	Radford	6-foot-5	BSth	4 Sr	-3.57
13	Brandon Clarke	Gonzaga	6-foot-8	WCC	3 Jr	-3.5
14	Jordan Murphy	Minnesota	6-foot-7	B10	4 Sr	-3.48
15	Aric Holman	Mississippi St.	6-foot-10	SEC	4 Sr	-3.46
16	Daniel Gafford	Arkansas	6-foot-11	SEC	2 So	-3.41
17	Brandon Gilbeck	Western Illinois	7-foot-0	Sum	4 Sr	-3.4
18	Xavier Tillman	Michigan St.	6-foot-8	B10	2 So	-3.39
19	Jeromy Rodriguez	East Tennessee St.	6-foot-7	SC	3 Jr	-3.33
20	Trent Forrest	Florida St.	6-foot-4	ACC	3 Jr	-3.29
21	Braxton Key	Virginia	6-foot-8	ACC	3 Jr	-3.28
22	Josh Reaves	Penn St.	6-foot-5	B10	4 Sr	-3.24
23	Bol Bol	Oregon	7-foot-2	P12	1 Fr	-3.22
24	Cortez Edwards	Southern Mississippi	6-foot-2	CUSA	4 Sr	-3.18
25	Kevarrius Hayes	Florida	7-foot-9	SEC	4 Sr	-3.13
26	Zavier Simpson	Michigan	7-foot-0	B10	3 Jr	-3.12
27	Grant Williams	Tennessee	6-foot-7	SEC	3 Jr	-3.1
28	Chuma Okeke	Auburn	6-foot-8	SEC	2 So	-3.1
29	Ebuka Izundu	Miami FL	6-foot-10	ACC	4 Sr	-3.08
30	Barry Brown	Kansas St.	6-foot-3	B12	4 Sr	-3.07
31	Nick Rakocevic	Southern California	6-foot-11	P12	3 Jr	-3.07
32	Kylor Kelley	Oregon St.	7-foot-0	P12	3 Jr	-3.06
33	Nickeil Alexander-Walker	Virginia Tech	6-foot-5	ACC	2 So	-3.06
34	Nate Grimes	Fresno St.	6-foot-8	MWC	3 Jr	-3.05
35	Charles Bassey	Western Kentucky	6-foot-11	CUSA	1 Fr	-3.04
36	Tariq Owens	Texas Tech	6-foot-10	B12	4 Sr	-3.03
37	Dylan Windler	Belmont	6-foot-8	OVC	4 Sr	-2.98
38	Jordan Nwora	Louisville	6-foot-7	ACC	2 So	-2.95
39	Marcus Santos-Silva	Virginia Commonwealth	6-foot-7	A10	2 So	-2.92
40	Alpha Diallo	Providence	6-foot-7	BE	3 Jr	-2.91
41	Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree	Villanova	6-foot-9	BE	2 So	-2.89
42	Dylan Osetkowski	Texas	6-foot-9	B12	4 Sr	-2.87
43	Cameron Krutwig	Loyola Chicago	6-foot-9	MVC	2 So	-2.87
44	RJ Williams	Boise St.	6-foot-7	MWC	2 So	-2.87
45	Isaiah Roby	Nebraska	6-foot-8	B10	3 Jr	-2.86
46	Nate Renfro	San Francisco	6-foot-8	WCC	4 Sr	-2.86
47	Javon Bess	St. Louis	6-foot-6	A10	4 Sr	-2.84
48	King McClure	Baylor	6-foot-3	B12	4 Sr	-2.82
49	Tre'Shawn Thurman	Nevada	6-foot-8	MWC	4 Sr	-2.81
50	Tristan Clark	Baylor	6-foot-9	B12	2 So	-2.77
51	Kamar Baldwin	Butler	6-foot-1	BE	3 Jr	-2.76
52	Shaq Buchanan	Murray St.	6-foot-3	OVC	4 Sr	-2.75
53	Elijah Childs	Bradley	6-foot-7	MVC	2 So	-2.74
54	Neemias Queta	Utah St.	6-foot-11	MWC	1 Fr	-2.74
55	BJ Stith	Old Dominion	6-foot-5	CUSA	4 Sr	-2.73
56	Jehyve Floyd	Holy Cross	6-foot-8	Pat	4 Sr	-2.72
57	Xavier Sneed	Kansas St.	6-foot-5	B12	3 Jr	-2.72
58	Talen Horton-Tucker	Iowa St.	6-foot-4	B12	1 Fr	-2.71
59	PJ Washington	Kentucky	6-foot-8	SEC	2 So	-2.7
60	Zylan Cheatham	Arizona St.	6-foot-8	P12	4 Sr	-2.69
61	Tacko Fall	Central Florida	7-foot-6	Amer	4 Sr	-2.66
62	Alexis Yetna	South Florida	6-foot-8	Amer	1 Fr	-2.64
63	Tres Tinkle	Oregon St.	6-foot-8	P12	3 Jr	-2.63
64	Juwan Morgan	Indiana	6-foot-8	B10	4 Sr	-2.62
65	Jaime Echenique	Wichita St.	6-foot-11	Amer	3 Jr	-2.62
66	Tyrese Haliburton	Iowa St.	6-foot-5	B12	1 Fr	-2.59
67	Trhae Mitchell	South Alabama	6-foot-6	SB	3 Jr	-2.58
68	Oshae Brissett	Syracuse	6-foot-8	ACC	2 So	-2.56
69	Keith Braxton	St. Francis PA	6-foot-5	NEC	3 Jr	-2.55
70	Jordan Goodwin	St. Louis	6-foot-3	A10	2 So	-2.53
71	Jarrett Culver	Texas Tech	6-foot-6	B12	2 So	-2.52
72	Brekkott Chapman	Weber St.	6-foot-9	BSky	4 Sr	-2.52
73	Anthony Lawrence	Miami FL	6-foot-7	ACC	4 Sr	-2.52
74	Charles Matthews	Michigan	6-foot-6	B10	4 Sr	-2.52
75	Alex Peacock	Texas St.	6-foot-7	SB	4 Sr	-2.51
76	Jack White	Duke	6-foot-7	ACC	3 Jr	-2.5
77	Brady Manek	Oklahoma	6-foot-9	B12	2 So	-2.49
78	Elston Jones	UC Irvine	6-foot-9	BW	4 Sr	-2.49
79	Kenny Goins	Michigan St.	6-foot-7	B10	4 Sr	-2.49
80	Nick Muszynski	Belmont	6-foot-11	OVC	1 Fr	-2.49
81	Doug Taylor	Ohio	6-foot-9	MAC	4 Sr	-2.48
82	Tamenang Choh	Brown	6-foot-5	Ivy	2 So	-2.47
83	Nate Pierre-Louis	Temple	6-foot-4	Amer	2 So	-2.46
84	Osun Osunniyi	St. Bonaventure	6-foot-10	A10	1 Fr	-2.44
85	Paschal Chukwu	Syracuse	7-foot-2	ACC	4 Sr	-2.43
86	Chuba Ohams	Fordham	6-foot-8	A10	3 Jr	-2.43
87	Mark Vital	Baylor	6-foot-5	B12	2 So	-2.42
88	Sagaba Konate	West Virginia	6-foot-8	B12	3 Jr	-2.41
89	Elijah Mitrou-Long	Texas	6-foot-1	B12	3 Jr	-2.41
90	Donta Hall	Alabama	6-foot-9	SEC	4 Sr	-2.39
91	Kaleb Wesson	Ohio St.	6-foot-9	B10	2 So	-2.38
92	Jarrell Brantley	Charleston Southern	6-foot-7	BSth	4 Sr	-2.37
93	Elijah Thomas	Clemson	6-foot-9	ACC	4 Sr	-2.36
94	Isaiah Livers	Michigan	6-foot-7	B10	2 So	-2.36
95	Chris Silva	South Carolina	6-foot-9	SEC	4 Sr	-2.34
96	Jaxson Hayes	Texas	6-foot-11	B12	1 Fr	-2.34
97	Luke Maye	North Carolina	6-foot-8	ACC	4 Sr	-2.33
98	Chase Jeter	Arizona	6-foot-10	P12	3 Jr	-2.33
99	James Banks	Georgia Tech	6-foot-9	ACC	3 Jr	-2.32
100	Jason Burnell	Jacksonville St.	6-foot-7	OVC	4 Sr	-2.32

Value Add Basketball Year End Player Calculations

This email went out to our sports list the morning of December 30. To be added to the list, email pudnerjohn@gmail.com with "add to sports list" in the subject field.

Of the 4,095 college players to take the court this season, Dedric Lawson's ability to improve Kansas an average of 13.29 points per game on offense and defense makes him the most valuable player in the country - and here are the 20 most valuable listed at www.valueaddbasketball.com. Look for the CBS 247 story on the top 8 match-up between St. John's Shamorie Ponds and Marquette's Markus Howard, who just scored 62 points in a 29 minute stretch on 13 of 15 three-pointers and 13 of 13 free throws to shoot up the 6th.

Rnk Player Team Value Add/Game Conf Class 3-pts and Games 1 Dedric Lawson Kansas 13.29 B12 3 Jr 4 3-pts in 11 Gms 2 Zion Williamson Duke 12.30 ACC 1 Fr 3 3-pts in 12 Gms 3 Grant Williams Tennessee 11.69 SEC 3 Jr 6 3-pts in 11 Gms 4 Jarrett Culver Texas Tech 11.03 B12 2 So 19 3-pts in 12 Gms 5 Ethan Happ Wisconsin 10.91 B10 4 Sr 0 3-pts in 12 Gms 6 Markus Howard Marquette 10.9 BE 3 Jr 49 3-pts in 13 Gms 7 Juwan Morgan Indiana 10.67 B10 4 Sr 13 3-pts in 13 Gms 8 Shamorie Ponds St. John's 10.27 BE 3 Jr 22 3-pts in 13 Gms 9 Tristan Clark Baylor 10.21 B12 2 So 1 3-pts in 11 Gms 10 Ja Morant Murray St. 10.16 OVC 2 So 13 3-pts in 9 Gms 11 Ebuka Izundu Miami FL 10.13 ACC 4 Sr 1 3-pts in 11 Gms 12 Brandon Clarke Gonzaga 10.13 WCC 3 Jr 2 3-pts in 14 Gms 13 Javon Bess St. Louis 9.9 A10 4 Sr 25 3-pts in 12 Gms 14 Ty Jerome Virginia 9.54 ACC 3 Jr 26 3-pts in 11 Gms 15 Carsen Edwards Purdue 9.44 B10 3 Jr 47 3-pts in 12 Gms 16 Matt Morgan Cornell 9.14 Ivy 4 Sr 38 3-pts in 11 Gms 17 Ahmad Caver Old Dominion 9.09 CUSA 4 Sr 28 3-pts in 13 Gms 18 De'Andre Hunter Virginia 9.02 ACC 2 So 11 3-pts in 11 Gms 19 Nickeil Alexander-Walker Virginia Tech 8.99 ACC 2 So 22 3-pts in 11 Gms 20 Myles Powell Seton Hall 8.97 BE 3 Jr 41 3-pts in 13 Gms

In addition to the CBS Sports 247 site, keep up with this blog for coverage of the Value Add Basketball rankings and Statis-Pro baseball projections all year. You can sort www.valueaddbasketball.com by team, conference or even click for past projections and seasons. Click here for the explanation of the Value Add basketball and how it calculates how much worse a teams average score would be if the player were replaced by a bench player on a mediocre team.

The top 5 defensive players in the country, based on their personal AdjD points by which they lower their teams www.kenpom.com rating.

Top 5 Defensive Players	State	Points stopped AdjD
Matisse Thybulle	Washington	-4.45
Ethan Happ	Wisconsin	-4.32
Zion Williamson	Duke	-4.14
Nicolas Claxton	Georgia	-4.11
Dedric Lawson	Kansas	-4.04