Russell, KC Jones Close on 22-2 Run to Advance San Francisco

In the most dramatic late game rally we recall in any of our Value Add Basketball Games, Bill Russell and KC Jones led a 22-2 run to close out the game and deliver the San Francisco 1956 repeat champions a come-from-behind 67-56 win in the Mississippi 2001. They will next play the winner of the last two teams in the game yet to play a game - VCU and Vanderbilt.

San Francisco rises to 33rd in our all-time team rankings, while, while Mississippi drops to 161st.

This was the first time we tracked miss free throws as well, and Russell's 50% free throw percentage (1-10 made, 11-20 missed) was a factor as he went 6 of 10 and the team went 14 of 22 compared to 11 of 14 for Mississippi.

But with five minutes left, KC Jones hit two free throws to make it 56-52 and extend the game (the last five minutes or 9 possessions, a foul or fast break steal add an extra possessions). Jones then stole a pass, and fed got the ball to Russell to make it 56-54. 

Two possessions later, Jones blocked a shot and got it ahead to Hal Perry who tied the score 56-56. Russell scored again for the first San Francisco lead of the game 58-56. Then we had the new block range come into play for the first time, as on a "65" Russell blocked a would-be score on one end, then on the other end Jones hit the only 3-point number on his 1-20 range with a "1" for a 3-pointer to make it 61-56. Mississippi hit only two 3-pointers, not unusual for an early team before they actually had the line as none of them have more than a 1-1 range for hitting 3-pointers in their 1-20 range. The surprise was that Mississippi also only had three 3-pointers with Jason Holmes just missing his 1-4 range with a "5" on a made basket.

One strategy note, Carl Boldt had a steal with 5 possessions (2:44 to play) but chose NOT to have a fast break, which would have allowed the advantage of the 20-side die to be lowered by 1, but also increased the chances Boldt (only scores or is fouled on 1-8 of 20) and instead he ran the regular offense and the ball ended up with Russell (1-12 score or is fouled) who scored to make it 63-56 and not create an extra possession since the fast break was not used.

 

Pos	Mississippi 2001	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht	Summary
1-PG	Jason Flanigan	6	1	0	3	3	4	1	0	1	6'3	7.1 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 2.2 Ast
2-SG	Jason Holmes	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	6'4	6.3 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 1.9 Ast
3-SF	David Sanders	6	0	3	0	0	4	0	0	3	6'7	6.9 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 1.9 Ast
4-PF	Justin Reed-nba	12	0	5	2	2	4	0	1	2	6'10	11.0 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 0.8 Ast
5-C	Rahim Lockhart	7	0	2	3	4	6	1	1	3	6'9	13.0 Pts, 8.1 Reb, 0.9 Ast
1-PG	Jason Harrison	2	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	1	6'2	7.1 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 3.0 Ast
2-SG	Aaron Harper	9	1	2	2	2	4	0	0	3	6'4	9.2 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.0 Ast
3-SF	Emmanuel Wade	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'3	4.4 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.9 Ast
4-PF	Richard Kirklin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6'8	1.9 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.2 Ast
5-C	John Gunn	7	0	3	1	2	1	0	0	1	6'9	2.8 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.2 Ast
	Starting Totals	56	3	18	11	14	28	4	2	20		14 Turnovers
Pos	San Francisco 1956		3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	Ht	Summary
1-PG	Hal Perry	12	2	3	0	0	3	3	0	2	6'0	9.1 Pts, 2.0 Reb
2-SG	Carl Boldt	11	0	5	1	2	2	3	0	2	6'4	8.6 Pts, 5.0 Reb
3-SF	K.C. Jones-nba	15	1	4	4	6	6	1	1	1	6'4	9.8 Pts, 5.2 Reb
4-PF	Mike Farmer-nba	5	0	2	1	2	7	0	0	2	6'11	8.4 Pts, 7.8 Reb
5-C	Bill Russell-nba	16	0	5	6	10	13	0	4	3	6'7	20.6 Pts, 21.0 Reb
1-PG	Harold Payne	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'0	1.0 Pts, 0.1 Reb
2-SG	John Koljian	2	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	2	6'5	1.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb
3-SF	Mike Preaseau	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	6'10	4.1 Pts, 3.1 Reb
4-PF	Bill Mallen	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6'11	4.2 Pts, 3.5 Reb
5-C	Gene Brown	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	6'9	7.1 Pts, 4.4 Reb
	Starting Totals	67	3	22	14	22	37	8	5	17		13 Turnovers

We will add a photo of the score sheet.

WCC with Dominant Gonzaga and the Return of Value Add Rankings

All-West Coast Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Drew Timme	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
Cam Shelton	Loyola Marymount	8.45	116.8	103.8	19-12 (PG), Poss 30.4%
Alex Ducas	Saint Mary's	8.36	120.7	91.4	5-seed, 27-8, Poss 18.3%
Malachi Smith	Gonzaga	8.26	130.4	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 16.9%
Brandin Podziemski	Santa Clara	8.02	120.5	100.8	23-10, nba 19 in 2023
2nd T-West Coast Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Anton Watson	Gonzaga	7.73	125.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 18%
Tyrell Roberts	San Francisco	7.67	119	103.3	20-14 (PG), Poss 20.2%
Fousseyni Traore	BYU	7.43	115.4	97.7	19-15, Poss 25%
Khalil Shabazz	San Francisco	6.92	113.1	103.3	20-14 (PG), Poss 24.7%
Julian Strawther	Gonzaga	6.69	117.2	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, nba 29 in 2023
HM-West Coast Conf	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Luke Avdalovic	Pacific	5.31	128.1	109.3	15-18, Poss 12.3%
Keylan Boone	Pacific	4.80	116.2	109.3	15-18, Poss 26.1%
Moses Wood	Portland	4.17	115.3	109.8	14-19, Poss 21.2%

Above is a very late All-West Coast Conference team from the 2022-23 season, and we will be updating these and the top 300 players at www.valueaddbasketball.com to go along with the rankings going back to the 2001-02 season. While this system received rave reviews from Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Fox Sports and many others, last season we skipped because we lost the ability to rank all 4000 players who take the court for D1 action.

The one huge loss in realignment is Brigham Young University and a nation of Latter Day Saint basketball fans moving to the Big 12, but other than that the conference remains strong with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, as well as a San Francisco team with NCAA title history and potential future.

While Value Add Conference MVP Drew Timme left without a title, his Gonzaga teams will go down as some of the greatest in history, and the Zags appear ready to compete as a 1- or 2-seed again. Note above that Brandin Podziemski of Santa Clara was the 19th pick in the NBA draft to come in 10 spots ahead of the Zags Julian Strawther.

 

Team	2023	2024	2025	Seed23	Rnk24
BYU	WCC	B12	B12		12
Gonzaga	WCC	WCC	WCC	3	8
Loyola Marymount	WCC	WCC	WCC		123
Pacific	WCC	WCC	WCC		228
Pepperdine	WCC	WCC	WCC		192
Portland	WCC	WCC	WCC		196
Saint Mary's	WCC	WCC	WCC	5	74
San Diego	WCC	WCC	WCC		230
San Francisco	WCC	WCC	WCC		80
Santa Clara	WCC	WCC	WCC		103

Better late than never - this is one of 32 lists of All-Conference teams based on the "resurrected" Value Add Basketball rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 releases of Conference teams will all include this same explanation for the rest of the blog, including the 10 returning All-Americans and top 60 players from last season listed further down.

This paragraph is of interest to stat nerds only. The offensive ratings were easier to recreate, since the basis was to pull hundreds of players ranked as the most efficient last season (AdjO at www.kenpom.com) and adjusting their figures for their percent of possessions. A player who can produce about 1.2 points per time he has the ball who also gets the ball 25% of the time against tough competition and as part of a strong defense can be All-American level, but a player who doesn't get the ball nearly as often but produces even more at 1.3 points per possession can still be All-Conference even if fans feel other players handling and shooting the ball more are better due to higher points scored per game.

The new simplified system weighs their ability to produce points against the Adjusted Defense (AdjD) - that is how many points per 100 trips would their team allow against an average D1 team. This accounts both for defense and for level of competition. We also note if a player is a Point Guard, the most important position on the court.

The resulting "Value" listed in the third column is the Value Add of points the player would improve an average team over if he could not play if a decent replacement took his place. Zach Edey was by far the most valuable player in the country last year at 13.17 meaning typically he would turn a 65-70 loss for a team into a 72-64 win - a 13 point swing. The notes off to the first indicated the team's record, their seed if they made the tournament, and then if they went to the NBA in the 2023 draft or are projected to go in the 2024 or 2025 draft.

1st and 2nd Team Returning All-Americans; and Top 60 Players from Last Season

 

The table below is the list of the 30 most valuable players in college basketball for the 2022-23 season according to our simplified www.valueaddbasketball.com rankings. Obviously most of these top players finished their eligibility or went pro so are no longer playing. However, if we made this our All-American teams of returning players including transfers at their new school the headline would be from Creighton.

1st Team Returning All-Americans - Value Add Basketball calculates that Creighton now has two of the three most valuable players in 2022-23 in returning Ryan Kalkbrenner and Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth. Ironically, Thursday it was Colorado State that handed Creighton its first loss - a team that Ashworth had dominated four of seven times in conference games at Utah State. The other 1st Team All-Americans based on last year's Value Add would be J'Wan Roberts returning for Houston, and then Tylor Perry who transferred from North Texas to Kansas State.

Most Valuable Player for 2nd Year. However, the far and away Most Valuable Player in the Country could challenge Anthony Davis, Jon Scheyer and Zion Williamson for as the most Valuable college player of the century in the All-Time Value Add Basketball Rankings - Zach Edey who was almost 2 points better than anyone in the country last year at Purdue and has them at No. 1 this season.

2nd Team Returning All-Americans - The 6th most valuable returning player according to Value Add is Marquette Point Guard Tyler Kolek. He would be joined on a second team All-American squad of returning players by Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi, Texas transfer from Oral Roberts Max Abmas, Duke's Ryan Young, Arizona's Azuolas Tubelis and finally Cam Spencer, who transferred from Rutgers to UConn.

In all, 18 of the top 30 players finished their college careers, leaving those 10 returning All-Americans and then two other players - JaKobe Coles of TCU and USC's Boogie Ellis.
 

All-American 1st Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Zach Edey	Purdue	13.17	125.9	94.5	1-seed, 29-6, nba 58 in 2024
Adama Sanogo (gone)	Connecticut	11.37	122.6	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, Poss 26.4%
Marcus Sasser (gone)	Houston	11.25	123.4	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, nba 25 in 2023
Ryan Kalkbrenner	Creighton	10.80	133.4	93.2	6-seed, 24-13, Poss 19.4%
Steven Ashworth (Creigh)	Utah St.	10.72	127.7	98.9	10-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 21.6%
All-American 2nd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Tylor Perry (K-State)	North Texas	10.37	124.3	94.1	31-7, Poss 24.4%
Brandon Miller (gone)	Alabama	10.23	117.0	88.2	1-seed, 31-6, nba 2 in 2023
Xavier Castaneda (gone)	Akron	9.94	121.9	103.4	22-11 (PG), Poss 29.4%
J'Wan Roberts	Houston	9.90	127.9	90.4	1-seed, 33-4, Poss 18.4%
Jordan Hawkins (gone)	Connecticut	9.88	121.2	90.9	4-seed, 31-8, nba 14 in 2023
All-American 3rd Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Jaime Jaquez (gone)	UCLA	9.80	113.1	88	2-seed, 31-6, nba 18 in 2023
Jalen Pickett (gone)	Penn St.	9.66	118.7	101.1	10-seed, 23-14 (PG), nba 32 in 2023
Jordan Walker (gone)	UAB	9.64	114.7	97.9	29-10 (PG), Poss 30.6%
Tyler Kolek	Marquette	9.63	118	96.7	2-seed, 29-7 (PG), Poss 24.1%
Santiago Vescovi	Tennessee	9.52	114.2	87.5	4-seed, 25-11 (PG), Poss 18.8%
All-American 4th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Max Abmas (Texas)	Oral Roberts	9.47	120.2	102.2	12-seed, 30-5 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Trayce Jackson-Davis (g)	Indiana	9.45	118.5	97.2	4-seed, 23-12, nba 57 in 2023
Ryan Young	Duke	9.37	128.7	93.9	5-seed, 27-9, Poss 18.3%
Kendric Davis (grad)	Memphis	9.24	111.1	96.1	8-seed, 26-9 (PG), Poss 31.6%
Drew Timme (grad)	Gonzaga	9.21	119.6	99.3	3-seed, 31-6, Poss 30.6%
All-American 5th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Markquis Nowell (gone)	Kansas St.	8.92	111	95	3-seed, 26-10 (PG), Poss 27.6%
Souley Boum (gone)	Xavier	8.87	119.2	98.6	3-seed, 27-10 (PG), Poss 21.2%
Oscar Tshiebwe (gone)	Kentucky	8.83	122.6	98.8	6-seed, 22-12, Poss 24.5%
Terence Lewis (gone)	Louisiana	8.74	131.2	102.9	13-seed, 26-8, Poss 20.3%
Darius McGhee (gone)	Liberty	8.68	114.5	97.5	27-9, Poss 33.4%
All-American 6th Team	Team	Value	AdjO	AdjD	Notes
Azuolas Tubelis	Arizona	8.68	116.1	96.3	2-seed, 28-7, Poss 28.7%
Cam Spencer (UConn)	Rutgers	8.66	119.4	90.8	19-15, Poss 19.8%
Sir'Jabari Rice (gone)	Texas	8.66	116.3	92.1	2-seed, 29-9, Poss 23.4%
JaKobe Coles	TCU	8.64	118.4	94.3	6-seed, 22-13, Poss 23.4%
Boogie Ellis	USC	8.56	113.3	97.5	10-seed, 22-11 (PG), Poss 25.7%

Best Point Guards in College Basketball This Year

Note: While www.kenpom.com and www.valueaddbasketball.com analytics flagging Chattanooga's Malachi Smith as the 2nd best small forward in the country, we have been informed that in fact he plays point guard - where he would also rank as the 2nd best player at the country barely behind Villanova's Collin Gillespie. We will update for his next post, but we would still consider Smith a 2nd Team All-American at this point - just at a different position. (The analytics are thrown off because he grabs so many defensive rebounds that he appears to be a small forward rather than a point guard statistically).

In Value Add Basketball we consider the team's "point guard" the player who typically has the most  assists, and typically is the shortest player on the floor and with fewer defensive rebounds, blocked shots and less height. A point guard has the toughest job because he is the player who needs to handle it all the way down the court and create his own shots or create shots for others by working the ball inside to a center or power forward, who will thus typically have even better raw numbers than a great point guard. (for a summary of the top players at each position, click here).

Because www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates how many points per game a player improves his team compared to if a typical replacement player took his place, the raw value add is adjusted by position since the replacement player would be at the same position. Therefore, once the formulas are run, and power guard's raw value add is increased by multiplying it by 1.05 to get the result you see below and at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

In general, freshmen guards in particular make so many mistakes (turnovers, bad shots etc.) the first half of the season that they do not rank nearly as high as more experienced guards. Nowhere is this more true than at point guard.

However, they tend to improve more at the end of the season, so we watch for breakout freshmen first when looking at brackets. Therefore we start with the 10 most valuable freshmen pointing guards in college basketball, and perhaps the most incredible finding in these systems is that the top two freshman point guard in all of college basketball both play for Tennessee. Zakai Zeigler plays the point whenever he is in the game based on analytics - and when he sits Kennedy Chandler moves from shooting guard to point guard and is even better. 

Chandler was unbelievable in the recent double digit win against Kentucky, scoring 17 points despite taking only 9 shots, and dishing out 6 assists without a single turnover. Zeigler has four steals in that game, and scored 14 points only taking eight shots. With the importance of guards able to handle the ball in March Madness, this duo could be scary good in the tournament.

Rnk	Top 10 Freshman PG	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
23	Kennedy Chandler #1	Tennessee	6.08	SEC	6'0	Fr
52	Zakai Zeigler #5	Tennessee	4.92	SEC	5'9"	Fr
58	Malachi Smith #11	Dayton	4.71	A10	6'0	Fr
60	Jalen Cook #3	Tulane	4.54	Amer	6'0	Fr
66	Jao Ituka #10	Marist	4.22	MAAC	6'1"	Fr
94	Kino Lilly #10	Brown	3.57	Ivy	6'0	Fr
113	Kerr Kriisa #25	Arizona	3.19	P12	6'3"	Fr
116	Ajay Mitchell #13	UC Santa Barbara	3.14	BW	6'4"	Fr
134	Jeremiah Williams #25	Temple	2.81	Amer	6'5"	Fr
136	Walter Clayton #13	Iona	2.77	MAAC	6'2"	Fr

If anyone had any doubts about Collin Gillespie being the top point guard in the country, they should watch how he has brought Villanova surging back into the top 10 - and the difference it made last year when he was injured for March Madness. It is a very close battle for 2nd Team All-American Point Guard between Mississippi State's Iverson Molinar and SMU's Kendric Davis. 

It may look strange to have Wyoming's super star Hunter Maldonado listed at point guard despite standing 6-foot-7, but he is in the top half percent of all players in assist rate - dishing and making everyone else score for a team that appears to be heading to March Madness.

 

Rnk	Top Point Guards (1)	Team	VA5	Conf	HtText	Cl
1	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	9.33	BE	6'3"	Sr
2	Iverson Molinar #1	Mississippi St.	8.68	SEC	6'3"	Jr
3	Kendric Davis #3	SMU	8.54	Amer	6'0	Sr
4	Hunter Maldonado #24	Wyoming	8.08	MWC	6'7"	Sr
5	Jamaree Bouyea #1	San Francisco	8.06	WCC	6'2"	Sr
6	Payton Willis #0	Minnesota	7.92	B10	6'4"	Sr
7	Tylor Perry #5	North Texas	7.77	CUSA	5'11"	Jr
8	Trent Frazier #1	Illinois	7.77	B10	6'2"	Sr
9	Baylor Scheierman #3	South Dakota St.	7.45	Sum	6'6"	So
10	Will Richardson #0	Oregon	7.44	P12	6'5"	Sr
11	RJ Cole #2	Connecticut	7.35	BE	6'1"	Sr
12	Mark Sears #1	Ohio	6.99	MAC	6'1"	So
13	Tyger Campbell #10	UCLA	6.92	P12	5'11"	Jr
14	Jacob Gilyard #0	Richmond	6.71	A10	5'9"	Sr
15	Isaiah Stevens #4	Colorado St.	6.69	MWC	6'0	Jr
16	Jalen Williams #24	Santa Clara	6.59	WCC	6'6"	Jr
17	Foster Loyer #0	Davidson	6.55	A10	6'0	Jr
18	Jamari Wheeler #55	Ohio St.	6.53	B10	6'1"	Sr
19	Andrew Nembhard #3	Gonzaga	6.49	WCC	6'5"	Sr
20	Michael Flowers #12	Washington St.	6.41	P12	6'1"	Sr
21	Sincere Carry #3	Kent St.	6.3	MAC	6'1"	Jr
22	Jordan Goldwire #0	Oklahoma	6.19	B12	6'3"	Sr
23	Kennedy Chandler #1	Tennessee	6.08	SEC	6'0	Fr
24	Jovan Blacksher #10	Grand Canyon	6.07	WAC	5'11"	Jr
25	Javon Freeman-Liberty #4	DePaul	6.06	BE	6'4"	Sr
26	RJ Davis #4	North Carolina	5.93	ACC	6'0	So
27	Wendell Green #1	Auburn	5.83	SEC	5'11"	So
28	Scotty Pippen #2	Vanderbilt	5.74	SEC	6'3"	Jr
29	Ben Shungu #24	Vermont	5.74	AE	6'2"	Sr
30	Michael Devoe #0	Georgia Tech	5.65	ACC	6'5"	Sr
31	Markquis Nowell #1	Kansas St.	5.61	B12	5'8"	Jr
32	Jordan Walker #10	UAB	5.57	CUSA	5'11"	Jr
33	Kevion Nolan #3	Jacksonville	5.55	ASun	6'2"	Jr
34	Darius McGhee #2	Liberty	5.5	ASun	5'9"	Sr
35	Souley Boum #0	UTEP	5.49	CUSA	6'3"	Jr
36	Jamal Shead #1	Houston	5.41	Amer	6'1"	So
37	James Akinjo #11	Baylor	5.41	B12	6'1"	Sr
38	Marcus Domask #1	Southern Illinois	5.38	MVC	6'6"	Jr
39	Tristen Newton #2	East Carolina	5.27	Amer	6'5"	So
40	Marcus Shaver #10	Boise St.	5.2	MWC	6'2"	Sr
41	Justice Hill #14	Murray St.	5.18	OVC	6'0	So
42	Bryce Aiken #1	Seton Hall	5.12	BE	6'0	Sr
43	Max Abmas #3	Oral Roberts	5.09	Sum	6'0	Jr
44	Jared Bynum #4	Providence	5.06	BE	5'10"	Jr
45	Darrion Trammell #2	Seattle	5.05	WAC	5'10"	So
46	Noah Kirkwood #10	Harvard	5.01	Ivy	6'7"	Sr
47	Braden Norris #4	Loyola Chicago	4.99	MVC	6'0	Jr
48	AJ Green #4	Northern Iowa	4.98	MVC	6'4"	Jr
49	KD Johnson #0	Auburn	4.97	SEC	6'0	So
50	Jahmir Young #1	Charlotte	4.96	CUSA	6'1"	Jr