Tuesday, May 21, 2024

We Rank A'ja as Better Than Caitlin Clark, but Still Glad Clark will Raise all WNBA Salaries and Deals

At this great moment for women's sports, I am sorry about the controversy regarding A'ja Wilson complaining that Caitlin Clark is getting this attention because of race. Even as an old white guy, I do understand. For the record, way before this issue arose I ranked the greatest 40 college women's basketball players of all time and believe A'ja Wilson was a greater college player than Clark.

In this post, I ranked Wilson as the 5th greatest college player ever and Clark as the 8th greatest college player ever - so on one level I understand the 5th greatest player ever asking why the 8th greatest ever is the one getting the biggest Wilson basketball deal since Michael Jordan. Here are my top 10 with their Value Add Basketball Game cards in the Value Add Basketball Game.


The +7 defense on Clark's card means she is not a good defender in the game, so even though she might be the best offensive player in our all-time great game we still rank seven players as greater all-time once you consider offense and defense.

But if you take a step back, the average guy in the NBA is making $10 million a year and the average WNBA woman until a couple of years ago made $100,000 - in large part because the WNBA has not made money in the past. Blame fans or whatever you want - I am sure I am not the only one who prefers the men's game if I have the choice because I like the game above the rim just as I always preferred women's soccer because of the pace of play without men falling all over the field faking injuries.

But whatever the reason, have Clark come out and fill arenas all over the country and more incredibly draw almost 20 million fans to watch the NCAA title game to unbelievably top the men's title game is good for all women college basketball players. So many more people tuning in to watch her play are more likely to then start following other women players they may never have seen if Clark didn't get them to turn on or come to the game.

Lots of women will make lots more money because of this. I understand Wilson's initial reaction to a player who overall I do not believe was quite as good as her suddenly making much more money. However, race is not the only possible explanation as fans generally like offense more than defense and particular players who can shoot from a long way from the basket. That is why the popularity of Stephen Curry exploded and he still gets three times as many views as the Player of the Year Nikola Jokic. In that case Curry is black and makes shots from another planet and Jokic is white and scores form much closer, just as Clark is white and makes shots from much further way that Wilson usually shoots.

The difference doesn't appear to be race, it appears to be fans have loved seeing really long shots go into the basket ever since the Harlem Globetrotters would shot off with half court shots.

I hope Wilson gets huge deals too now that the ceiling is bursting for women's players.

Our next Value Add Basketball Game between all-time teams will feature Clark's rival Angel Reese from LSU, who incidentally I have down as the 23rd greatest player of all time. I will have her LSU champions facing the Purdue 2003 team.


Monday, May 13, 2024

WS Odds of Our 9 Statis-Pro Teams - and the other 21

 I was asked why I went with nine teams to play in my Statis-Pro AL season, particularly since the Kansas City Royals and Boston Red Sox were among my six relegated teams left out, even though they had better records than the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, who I included.

.Since there are many factors such as injuries and slumps in the first month of the season, I basically look at the odds of each team winning the World Series, I play all player cards on the roster unless a player is on 60-day DL and/or not expected to play for at least two months. So my games are a "if healthy" simulation and even includes some minor league Top Prospects expected to be called up soon.

Since I am playing the AL this year (I rotate with a friend) there is still a pretty strong break between the last team I included (Tampa Bay Rays with a 1.6% chance of winning the World Series and recent examples of unexpectedly winning the AL) and the top team not included (Detroit Tigers at 1.1%).

I do sometimes adjust later in the season and play a bunch of catchup games with a team being added, so it could be that the Tigers, Royals or Red Sox for that matter end up being added to the nine teams later or that the Astros are dropped if they are still playing sub .400 ball in midseason, but for now this is the line-up for the nine teams I am playing with the 2024 projected cards.

Chance of Statis-Pro AL Teams                  WS Win %
New York Yankees10.4%
Baltimore Orioles6.5%
Texas Rangers4.8%
Houston Astros4.8%
Seattle Mariners4.0%
Minnesota Twins3.6%
Cleveland Guardians2.1%
Toronto Blue Jays1.8%
Tampa Bay Rays1.6%
Chance team we are using39.6%
  
Chance of AL relegated teamsWS Win %
Detroit Tigers1.1%
Kansas City Royals0.8%
Boston Red Sox0.8%
Los Angeles Angels0.1%
Oakland Athletics0.1%
Chicago White Sox0.1%
Chance of team we are excluding3.1%
  
Chance of NL Teams Winning WSWS Win %
Los Angeles Dodgers24.1%
Atlanta Braves15.4%
Philadelphia Phillies6.5%
Chicago Cubs2.1%
Milwaukee Brewers1.4%
San Diego Padres1.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks1.3%
New York Mets1.3%
San Francisco Giants1.3%
St. Louis Cardinals1.1%
Cincinnati Reds0.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates0.3%
Washington Nationals0.1%
Miami Marlins0.1%
Colorado Rockies0.1%
Chance of an NL team winning WS57.3%

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Updated results-Eligible Pitchers for Guardians at Orioles (and Happy Mother's Day!)

 The following are the Statis-Pro pitching sheets for the second game of this series. Cleveland won at home against Baltimore so the second game always competes the home-and-home so will be in Baltimore.

Notice we checked off the relievers who pitched in the first game of the series so they cannot pitch in the second game.

This will be a game between two average staters (on 4-7 means they keep the action on their card on trolls of 4-7 while the natters card has it on 2,3 or 8-12 which actually is half the combinations).

No available reliever for this game is better than 4-7 either, since the Indians used PB 2-9 Emmanuel Clase to wrap up the opener, to the batters have a chance today for some extra base hits.

As for the home fields, on deep drives Camden Yards only yields a homer on 11-25 while 26-88 is a deep fly out, so that had changed over time.




We will sort out the box score later after an insane 14-10 Orioles win over the Guardians - after leading 14-8 through 8 innings.


Saturday, May 11, 2024

Yanks Survive J-Rod Grand Slam; Torres 11th Inning Walk-off

 Carlos Rodón pitched the Yankees to a 5-1 lead through six innings of 2-hit, 7 strikeout ball, but no sooner had he turned it over to the pen than Julio Rodríguez blasted a grand slam home run in the 7th to give the Mariners a 6-5 lead. The Yankees had to rally from behind in the bottom of the 9th, 10th and 11th innings before Gleyber Torres' 2-run walk off homer gave them the 9-8 win.

Click for the free Statis-Pro baseball and players cards for all 30 teams based on projected 2024 stats.

The average score of our first six Statis-Pro games of the season was 6-3, but the Twins 14-12 win against the Astros and this 9-8 Yankees win over the Mariners makes the average score for the moment a whopping 8-6.

We took the top nine AL teams and divided them into three pods of East, South and West. The win puts the Yankees in 1st in the Eastern Pod at 2-1. Each team has two 2-game series outside their pod to go through their 4-man rotation once, then each will go through their rotation one more time in a round robin against the other two teams in the pod. Here are the mini-standings now followed by the box score from the Yankees 11 inning win.

East Pod

NY Yankees 2-1  - at Seattle (Cortes at Gilbert)

Baltimore 0-1 – host Cleveland (Kremer hosts Williams), then 2 vs Texas

Toronto 0-2 – at Seattle (Berrios at Miller), at Tampa (Kukuchi at Littell)

 

West Pod

Cleveland 1-0 – at Baltimore (Williams at Kremer), 2 vs Tampa (Bibee, Allen)

Minnesota 1-1 – at Houston (Paddock at Brown), at Texas (Ober at Gray)

Seattle 1-1 – host Toronto (Miller host Barrios), host NY Yankees (Gilbert host Cortes)

 

South Pod

Texas 1-0 – host Minnesota (Gray host Ober), 2 vs. Baltimore

Tampa 1-0 – host Toronto (Littell host Kikuchi), 2 vs Cleveland

Houston 1-2 – host Minnesota (Brown host Paddock)

 

After games listed, each team will play the other two teams in their pod twice each.

 
NY Yankees 9-8 (11 inn)1                  4      5      6          7  8  10  11  Final
Seattle1000050118
NY Yankees0203001129
           
SeattleChtSPOPS       SP           ABRHRBIBBEB
Julio RodríguezRPCF0.841A/AAA71240sb,GS
Cal RaleighSPC0.761E/D41101 
Mitch GarverRPDH0.757E/D40002 
Ty FranceRN1b0.754E/D60110 
Jorge PolancoSP3b0.742D/C52001 
J.P. CrawfordLNSS0.736E/C50100 
Luke RaleyLPrf0.729B/B51200 
Mitch HanigerRPLF0.723E/D521012b
Josh RojasLN2b0.659B/A511012b
Totals0.196Bat  468956 
           
MarinersThPBIPHRERWKDec 
George KirbyR2'-8542253  
Austin VothR2'-40.323311  
Ryne StanekR2'-60.710011  
Tyson MillerR2'-4100001  
Gabe SpeierL4'-7100002  
Andrés MuñozR2'-9111010  
Tayler SaucedoL2'-4111000  
Trent ThorntonR2'-40.312100L 
   10.3109688  
           
NY YankeesChtSPOPSSPABRHRBIBBEB
Anthony VolpeRNSS0.71A/AA60000 
Juan SotoLP3b0.96D/B20202
Oswald PerazaRNph-3b0.703B/A12000 sb
Aaron JudgeRPRF0.954E/C50001 
Gleyber TorresRP2b0.797C/B51121gwHR
Giancarlo StantonRPDH0.776E/E51100 
Anthony RizzoLP1b0.759E/D311022b,hpb
Alex VerdugoLNCF0.745C/C33001hpb
Austin WellsLPC0.709C/C511202b
Trent GrishamLPCF0.727B/A40330sb
Jose TrevinoRNph0.648D/D10110 
Jasson DomínguezSNpr-of0.692A/B00000 
Totals0.250Bat  4091087 
           
YankeesThPBIPHRERWKDec 
Carlos RodónL2'-9621137  
Luis GilR2'-60.713321  
Caleb FergusonL4'-7012210  
Luke WeaverR2'-61.330011  
Ian HamiltonR2'-6120010  
Clay HolmesR2'-7202001W 
   11986810 

Twins Shell Verlander, Hold on for 14-12 Win Despite 2 Alvarez HRs

We updated the Yankees and Astros Statis-Pro baseball rosters with just some slight updates, in order to play them both for the first time since the debuted in a 2-game series in February after we produced the 2024 projected cards for the first time. The Astros played first, traveling to Minnesota, and it turned out to be the wildest game we’ve played yet.

The Twins jumped on Justin Verlander for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings and eventually took a 10-0 lead that gave them a chance to claim a sweep if they could hold a 5-run lead through six innings and win. However, whatever the slow start this year for the real Astros, in Statis-Pro their first four hitters have cards that project an average OPS of 0.877, second only to Atlanta in our game.

1.            Atlanta                .890

2.            Houston              .877

3.            LA Dodgers        .876

4.            NY Yankees       .855

5.            Philadelphia     .825

5.            Texas                    .825

The Astros slugged their way all the way back to a 10-9 score before eventually losing 14-12 in by far our highest scoring game of the season so far.

We play 2-game series in which each reliever can only pitch one of two games, so the second game of this series could see a lot of PB 2-4 pitching (worst rating, pitcher only keeps the action on his card while a 5-12 goes to the batters’ card and thus can result in an extra base hit.

Hunter Brown will start for the Astros and if they can get to the 9th will have PB2-9 (highest rating) Josh Hader available, but with Brown only able to go a max of 6 innings they will have trouble bridging as the only other relievers have the lowest rating (PB 2-4).

Chris Paddock will start the second game and can only go a maximum of 5 innings and have PB2-6 (below average but decent) Simeon Woods Richardson (who can go 2 innings) and Jay Jackson, as well as PB2-5 Jay Jackson, before they would need to go to PB2-4 (the lowest rated pitcher in relief).

Minnesota 14-12    1     4    5      6        7   8  9  10  11  Final
Houston10000722012
Minnesota04420040x14
           
HoustonChtPos  OPS    SP         ABRHRBIBBEB
Kyle TuckerLPRF0.877A/AA52101 
Jose AltuveRP2b0.819B/B61120HR
Yordan AlvarezLPDH0.988E/D533302-HR
Alex BregmanRP3b0.823D/D42201 
Yainer DiazRPC0.776E/D42310hpb
Chas McCormickRPCF0.760B/B50000E
Jon SingletonLN1b0.754E/D51200 
Jeremy PeñaRNSS0.714B/B51230HR
Jake MeyersRNLF0.699B/C40100 
Totals0.349   43121592 
           
AstrosThPBIPHRERWKDec 
Justin VerlanderR2'-72.367533L 
Spencer ArrighettiR2'-60.712201  
Rafael MonteroR2'-60.722221  
J.P. FranceR4'-71.100010  
Bennett SousaL2'-5110001  
Bryan AbreuR2'-7002220  
Ryan PresslyR2'-8111101  
Brandon BielakR2'-4100000  
   811141287  
           
MinnesotaChtPosOPSSPABRHRBIBBEB
Byron BuxtonRPDH0.796A/A421012b
Carlos CorreaRPSS0.784E/E41101E
Max KeplerLPRF0.77C/C51220HR
Edouard JulienLN2b0.755C/C42120E,HR
Ryan JeffersRPC0.741D/D41001 
Carlos SantanaSN1b0.721E/C31102 
Trevor LarnachLNLF0.709D/D512202b
Kyle FarmerRN3B0.682D/D43320HR
Willi CastroSNCF0.697A/AA22132 
Totals0.343   351412117 
           
TwinsThPBIPHRERWKDec 
Joe RyanR2'-85.375406W 
Caleb ThielbarL4'-70.712200  
Louie VarlandR4'-70.323311  
Brock StewartR2'-8122210  
Griffin JaxR4'-70.700000  
Jhoan DuranR2'-9110002S 
   913121129 

Playoff Rematch: Slumping Astros vs. Surging Twins

Playing Statis-Pro baseball with current players can look more like the current season, or in other cases the current season, depending on if changes in a teams fortunes are due to roster changes and injuries or not.

In 2022 the World Series champion Astros were much better than the Twins (.654 to .481 winning percentage), while in 2023 the Astros had only a slight edge (.556 to .537) but then won the playoff series 3 games to 1 against the Twins, but the Twins did end their historic 18-game playoff losing streak by winning two against Toronto and then one against Houston.

However, this year the Twins have been much better - winning 16 of their last 18 games to improve .605 winning percentage while the Astros have fought through many injuries including their starting pitchers all missing about half their starts to collapse to .368 and decided if they want to buy or sell at the trade deadline.

Our Statis-Pro seasons are a bit of a "what if" since we use player cards unless they go on 60-day DL or are expected to miss at least two months, so the Astros still had a good Statis-Pro start with a 4-2 record in their opening series against the mighty Yankees, while the Twins lost to Scherzer in their debut.

We track each game here, recording the score, starting pitcher for each team and then how many earned runs they gave up and innings pitched. Each series is two games, with either the 1st and 4th best starter or 2nd and 3rd for each team, and each reliever allowed to pitch in one of the two games. Therefore you do not need as deep a team in our Statis-Pro season as you need in the real season.

1st T         Runs    2nd     TRuns   Rot          1st Pit       IP   R    2nd Pit            IP   R
Hou11NYY41stValdez70Cole45
Hou3NYY44thJavier52Stroman71
Balt2Cle51stBurnes53McKenzie71
Balt Cle 4thKremer  Williams  
Sea6Tor31stCastillo6.13Bassitt53
Sea Tor 4thMiller  Berrios  
Min2Tex41stLopez6.12Scherzer71
Min Tex 4thOber  Gray  
MiddleRuns2ndRunsRot1st PitIPR2nd PitIPR
TB8Tor51st/2ndEflin6.24Gausman53
TB Tor 4th/3rdLittell  Kikuchi  
2nd SerRuns2ndRunsRot1st PitIPR2nd PitIPR
Balt Tex 2ndRodriguez  Eovaldi  
Balt Tex 3rdBradish  Dunning  
Cle TB 2ndBibee  Civale  
Cle TB 3rdAllen  Pepiot  
Hou Min 2ndVerlander  Ryan  
Hou Min 3rdBrown  Paddock  
NYY Sea 2ndKirby  Kirby  
NYY Sea 3rdGilbert  Gilbert 

The Astros-Yankees series was our one early series back in February when we first made the cards, so we've updated the roster just a little, but mainly just subbing Singleton in for Abreu at 1st base. Here is their updated roster we will use for the game, and we just showed these for Minnesota 





Friday, May 10, 2024

Jays Fall to Mariners and Rays Despite Bichette's HR and Little League HR

 Toronto hosted Seattle and Tampa in back-to-back Statis-Pro baseball games (since players do not get tired in card games and thus can play back-to-back) and perhaps the best hitting card in the game - Bo Bichette - hit one of the 7 home runs in the two games. 

But while his first homer off Seattle in the debut of both teams 2024 projected cards was a traditional homer, he accomplished a much more rare feet in the second game against Tampa. Bichette his a triple (3B8) and when Tampa's centerfielder Richie Palacios misplayed it into an error Bichette raced home for what we jokingly call a "Little League Home Run" (meaning a player hits the ball in a little league game and the other team makes errors until he races around all the bases).

However, neither was enough as the Blue Jays lost 6-3 to Seattle and 8-5 to Tampa. With the Yankees and Orioles being upset in their debuts, all three of our "Eastern Pod" teams surprisingly had losses in the league we set up for the top nine AL teams in Statis-Pro this year.

One disappointment was that Julio Rodríguez was never able to show off his ultimate A/AAA speed with any steal attempts on an 0 for 4 game.

A couple of PB2-9 pitchers (top 5% of all pitchers who control the action on rolls of 2-9 to only put it on the batters card if 10-12) were vulnerable.

In a rare starting pitcher match-up of two PB 2-9s both Tampa's Zach Eflin and Toronto's Kevin Gausman gave up four runs. When the Rays Pete Fairbanks, with one of the most dominant cards in teh game at a PB2-9 that only allows hits on 11-15, came in to wrap up the game he allowed the first two batters of the 9th inning to reach. 

Everyone's favorite Daniel Vogelbach pinch hit to start the 9th, and after a wild pitch the very slow runner would score on a single by Spencer Horwitz to pull Toronto within 8-5. 


Seattle 6-3                        1                  2    3          4   5  6  7    8    9         
Seattle003003000
Toronto000200100
          
SeattleChtPosSPABRHRBIBBEB
Julio RodríguezRPCFA/AAA40001 
Cal RaleighSPCE/D41111HR
Mitch GarverRPDHE/D50100 
Ty FranceRN1bE/D50000 
Jorge PolancoSP3bD/C21003 
J.P. CrawfordLNSSE/C312012-2B
Luke RaleyLPrfB/B41230HR
Mitch HanigerRPLFE/D41110HR
Josh RojasLN2bB/A31111 
Totals0.235  346867 
          
SeattleThPBIPHRERWKDec
Luis CastilloR2'-86.163315W
Gabe SpeierL4'-71.200000H
Andrés MuñozR2'-9100000S
          
TorontoChtPosSPABRHRBIBBEB
Bo BichetteRPSSC/B31111HR
George SpringerRPRFB/B411002b
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.RP1bE/C402102b
Alejandro KirkRNCE/E40000 
Davis SchneiderRP2bC/C40100 
Daulton VarshoLPLFB/B40000 
Cavan BiggioLN2bC/C31110HR
Justin TurnerRN3bE/D30000 
Kevin KiermaierLNCFA/B30000 
Totals0.188  323631 
          
TorontoThPBIPHRERWKDec
Chris BassittR2'-7563324L
Alek ManoahR4'-7123312 
Yimi GarcíaR4'-7100010 
Erik SwansonR4'-7100011 
Chad GreenR4'-7100003 
          
          
Tampa 8-5123456789
Tampa001124000
Toronto101000201
          
TampaChtSP                 ABRHRBIBBEB
José CaballeroRN2bA/AA51110 
Randy ArozarenaRPLFB/B50100 
Yandy DíazRN1bE/D42231HR
Isaac ParedesRPdhE/D41220HR
Richie PalaciosLNCFB/C50000 
Curtis MeadRN3bD/C51300 
Amed RosarioRNssA/B40200 
Jose SiriRPCFA/A42100 
Alex JacksonRPCD/E31100 
Totals0.333Bat 3981361 
          
TampaThPB     IPHRERWKDec
Zach EflinR2'-96.2744110Win
Shawn ArmstrongR4'-7120001 
Pete FairbanksR2'-91.111113 
          
TorontoChtSP ABRHRBIBBEB
Bo BichetteRPSSC/B511103b
George SpringerRPRFB/B51100 
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.RP1bE/C50000 
Alejandro KirkRNCE/E41210 
Davis SchneiderRP2bC/C40200 
Daulton VarshoLPLFB/B30101 
Cavan BiggioLN2bC/C40100 
Justin TurnerRN3bE/D30000 
Daniel VogelbachLP E/E01001 
Kevin KiermaierLNCFA/B31100 
Spencer HorwitzLN D/C10010 
Totals0.243Bat 375932 
          
TorontoThPBIPHRERWKDec
Kevin GausmanR2'-9544314L
Alek ManoahR4'-70.214401 
Yariel RodriguezR2'-62.110011 
Mitch WhiteR2'-5100000