Saturday, March 12, 2022

March Madness 3: The 151 Players Picked as All-Conference Defense

Lock-down defense can win tournament games against nervous college players. Fewer than 1 of 25 college players have been selected as all-conference defenders, and those players can win on the defensive end of the court. 

The following lists the 151 players of 4,363 in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database.  The very best defensive player, a player selected as the Defensive Player of the Year in one of the six top conferences, are listed first and erase close to 5 points per game from the opponent. In decending order of impact we list the top defenders with a little less credit the weaker the conference, or for winning all-conference defender to be one of the top five defenders but not the top one, or for players who won the award in 2021 but did not repeat this year. Keep in mind some of the 2021 players won the award in a different conference than they play in today.

In addition to the player's name, team and conference, we list DPOY for the player selected top defender and then All-Def if picked as one of the top five. The next column includes the percent of the time the player steals the ball when the other team has it, and the percent of the time he blocks the shot when the opponent tries a 2-pointers, then finally the estimated overall impact he has on taking points away from the other team.
 
All Defense PlayerTeamConfAwardStl%^Blk%Def Alt
Mark WilliamsDukeACCDPOY-20221.1^11.9-5
Caleb McConnellRutgersB10DPOY-20224.6^1.9-5
Gabe OsabuohienWest VirginiaB12DPOY-20223.9^3.7-5
Ryan KalkbrennerCreightonBEDPOY-20220.9^8.8-5
Christian KolokoArizonaP12DPOY-20221.6^10.3-5
Walker KesslerAuburnSECDPOY-20222.5^18.9-5
Lucas WilliamsonLoyola ChicagoMVCDPOY-20222.5^1.1-4
Jaylen ClarkUCLAP12All-Def-20223.7^1-4
Tyger CampbellUCLAP12All-Def-20222.1^0.4-4
Dalen TerryArizonaP12All-Def-20222.5^1.1-4
Keon EllisAlabamaSECAll-Def-20223.5^2-4
Oscar TshiebweKentuckySECAll-Def-20223.3^5.3-4
Zakai ZeiglerTennesseeSECAll-Def-20224.8^0.6-4
Jaylin WilliamsArkansasSECAll-Def-20222.4^4.6-4
Myles JohnsonUCLAP12All-Def-20221.9^8.3-3.8
Osun OsunniyiSt. BonaventureA10DPOY-20221.1^12.3-3.7
Trent FrazierIllinoisB10All-Def-20222.2^0.4-3.5
Enrique FreemanAkronMACDPOY-20220.9^4.8-3.5
Darryl MorsellMarquetteBEDPOY-20212.3^1.5-3.2
Isaiah WhaleyConnecticutBEDPOY-20211.7^8-3.2
DaRon HolmesDaytonA10All-Def-20220.9^9-3
Chuba OhamsFordhamA10All-Def-20221.3^5.6-3
Yuri CollinsSaint LouisA10All-Def-20223.3^0.5-3
Kevin SamuelFlorida Gulf CoastASunDPOY-20222^10.5-3
Jonathan Tchamwa TchatchouaBaylorB12All-Def-20221.9^1.9-3
Dajuan HarrisKansasB12All-Def-20222.9^1.1-3
Markquis NowellKansas St.B12All-Def-20224.3^0.1-3
Moussa CisseOklahoma St.B12All-Def-20221.2^11.1-3
Jubrile BeloMontana St.BSkyDPOY-20221^7.8-3
Jamarion SharpWestern KentuckyCUSADPOY-20221.5^17.8-3
Aher UguakLoyola ChicagoMVCAll-Def-20221.3^1.2-3
Nathan MensahSan Diego St.MWCDPOY-20222.1^10.7-3
Posh AlexanderSt. John'sBEDPOY-20213.9^0.6-2.9
Jamari WheelerOhio St.B10All-Def-20212.7^0.2-2.5
Josh MballaBuffaloMACAll-Def-20222.1^2.8-2.5
Daeqwon PlowdenBowling GreenMACAll-Def-20221.7^4.4-2.5
Malique JacobsKent St.MACAll-Def-20222.5^3.1-2.5
Sincere CarryKent St.MACAll-Def-20222.3^0.7-2.5
Jaime JaquezUCLAP12All-Def-20212.3^1.2-2.5
Abdul AdoCincinnatiAmerAll-Def-20213.1^8.7-2.4
Jacob GilyardRichmondA10All-Def-20224.8^0.5-2.3
Jordan GoldwireOklahomaB12All-Def-20213^0.8-2.3
Hason WardVCUA10All-Def-20212.6^8.5-2
Jamel HortonAlbanyAEDPOY-20222^1.1-2
Dexter DennisWichita St.AmerAll-Def-20221.7^3.2-2
Drew PemberUNC AshevilleBSthDPOY-20221.6^10-2
Jadon JonesLong Beach St.BWDPOY-20222.9^3.3-2
Amari WilliamsDrexelCAADPOY-20221.8^9.8-2
Trey JemisonUABCUSAAll-Def-20211.1^7.2-2
Josh AndersonWestern KentuckyCUSAAll-Def-20214.4^1.5-2
Cobe WilliamsLouisiana TechCUSAAll-Def-20222.4^0.4-2
JJ MurrayNorth TexasCUSAAll-Def-20223.6^0.5-2
Thomas BellNorth TexasCUSAAll-Def-20221.8^3.5-2
Quan JacksonUABCUSAAll-Def-20224.9^1.6-2
Tre GomillionCleveland St.HorzDPOY-20222.4^1.2-2
DJ WilkinsDrakeMVCAll-Def-20221.9^0-2
Donovan ClayMissouri St.MVCAll-Def-20221.2^3.5-2
Lance JonesSouthern IllinoisMVCAll-Def-20224.1^0.4-2
Abu KigabBoise St.MWCAll-Def-20222.6^1.7-2
Orlando RobinsonFresno St.MWCAll-Def-20221.8^5.1-2
Lamont ButlerSan Diego St.MWCAll-Def-20224.4^0.8-2
Justin BeanUtah St.MWCAll-Def-20222.8^1.7-2
Alex MoralesWagnerNECDPOY-20222.9^1.6-2
Marco AnthonyUtahP12All-Def-20211.3^1.6-2
Josh CaldwellArmyPatDPOY-20224^0.5-2
Norchad OmierArkansas St.SBDPOY-20223^6.1-2
Jayveous McKinnisJackson St.SWACDPOY-20222.1^9.7-2
Taran ArmstrongCal BaptistWACDPOY-20221.3^0.8-2
Tre WilliamsDuquesneA10All-Def-20211.1^6.7-1.6
ShanQuan HemphillDrakeMVCAll-Def-20212^2-1.6
Tyson WalkerMichigan St.B10DPOY-20212.5^0.7-1.5
Gaige PrimMissouri St.MVCAll-Def-20211.8^4.7-1.5
Nana OpokuMount St. Mary'sNECDPOY-20211.6^5.8-1.5
AJ WilsonSouth CarolinaSECAll-Def-20212.2^7-1.5
Brandon McKissicFloridaSECDPOY-20212.8^0.4-1.5
Mouhamadou GueyePittsburghACCDPOY-20211.3^9.2-1.4
Grayson MurphyBelmontOVCDPOY-20214.5^1.2-1.4
Kim AikenArizonaP12DPOY-20214^2-1.4
Cheikh Mbacke DiongUCFAmerAll-Def-20211.5^7.2-1.3
Theo AkwubaLouisianaSBDPOY-20211.1^8.4-1.3
Traci CarterHartfordAEAll-Def-20223.3^1.7-1.2
David MuokaUNLVMWCDPOY-20211.4^8.8-1.2
Coryon MasonAbilene ChristianWACAll-Def-20212.2^0.7-1.2
Damien DanielsAbilene ChristianWACAll-Def-20214.5^0-1.2
Reggie MillerAbilene ChristianWACAll-Def-20213.5^0.5-1.2
Phlandrous FlemingFloridaSECDPOY-20213.2^2.6-1.1
Wendell MooreDukeACCAll-Def-20222.5^0.5-1
Charlie MooreMiami FLACCAll-Def-20223.5^0.7-1
Leaky BlackNorth CarolinaACCAll-Def-20221.7^2.4-1
Reece BeekmanVirginiaACCAll-Def-20224^2.8-1
Max BrooksUMass LowellAEAll-Def-20222.1^10.7-1
Ben ShunguVermontAEAll-Def-20222.5^1-1
Christian HincksonBinghamtonAEAll-Def-20221.9^4-1
Trayce Jackson-DavisIndianaB10All-Def-20221.2^8.8-1
EJ LiddellOhio St.B10All-Def-20220.9^8.4-1
Eric HunterPurdueB10All-Def-20221.5^0.1-1
Charles ThompsonTowsonCAAAll-Def-20221.4^7.3-1
Dimitrius UnderwoodCharlestonCAAAll-Def-20224.3^0.1-1
Cam HoldenTowsonCAAAll-Def-20223.5^0.7-1
Shykeim PhillipsUNC WilmingtonCAAAll-Def-20224.1^1.8-1
Tim FinkeWright St.HorzAll-Def-20211.3^1.1-1
Deante JohnsonCleveland St.HorzAll-Def-20221.1^5.5-1
D'Moi HodgeCleveland St.HorzAll-Def-20224.6^3-1
Micah ParrishOaklandHorzAll-Def-20222.7^0.7-1
Jalon PipkinsPurdue Fort WayneHorzAll-Def-20222.9^1-1
Jaylan GaineyBrownIvyAll-Def-20220.4^10.7-1
KC NdefoSaint Peter'sMAACAll-Def-20223^12.1-1
Nendah TarkeCoppin St.MEACAll-Def-20224.7^0.9-1
Randall BrumantHowardMEACAll-Def-20221.3^6-1
Nathaniel PollardMaryland Eastern ShoreMEACAll-Def-20223.3^4.3-1
Kris BankstonNorfolk St.MEACAll-Def-20222^5.2-1
Chris SodomDelaware St.MEACDPOY-20220.8^12.5-1
Johni BroomeMorehead St.OVCDPOY-20221.6^13.4-1
Sukhmail MathonBoston UniversityPatAll-Def-20221.3^2.5-1
Richard NjokuNavyPatAll-Def-20221^5.2-1
Tucker RichardsonColgatePatAll-Def-20222.4^0.8-1
Greg SummersNavyPatAll-Def-20222.3^2.7-1
Jalen SlawsonFurmanSCAll-Def-20223.3^6.5-1
Darius LeeHouston BaptistSlndAll-Def-20224.4^0.8-1
Ryghe LyonsNicholls St.SlndAll-Def-20221.1^8.5-1
Kendal ColemanNorthwestern St.SlndAll-Def-20221.8^4.6-1
Jalyn HintonSoutheastern LouisianaSlndAll-Def-20221.8^7.1-1
Terrion MurdixTexas A&M Corpus ChrisSlndAll-Def-20224.7^0.2-1
Marvin NesbittUMKCSumAll-Def-20212.7^3.2-1
Tyree EadyNorth Dakota St.SumAll-Def-20221.8^1.1-1
Boogie AndersonSouth DakotaSumAll-Def-20221.2^0.2-1
Douglas WilsonSouth Dakota St.SumAll-Def-20221.9^2.4-1
Colton SandageWestern IllinoisSumAll-Def-20222.2^1.1-1
Johnny McCantsNew Mexico St.WACAll-Def-20221.7^8.4-1
Javion MaySam Houston St.WACAll-Def-20223.5^0.9-1
Darrion TrammellSeattleWACAll-Def-20224.3^0.5-1
Shamir BoguesTarleton St.WACAll-Def-20223.8^2.6-1
Fardaws AimaqUtah ValleyWACAll-Def-20221.1^4-1
Chet HolmgrenGonzagaWCCAll-Def-20221.7^12.6-1
Jarrod WestLouisvilleACCAll-Def-20212.9^0-0.8
Darnell RogersUMBCAEAll-Def-20212^0.1-0.8
Lunden McDayOhioMACAll-Def-20211.2^0-0.8
MJ RandolphFlorida A&MSWACAll-Def-20212.9^0.4-0.8
Luke LoeweMinnesotaB10All-Def-20211^0.1-0.7
Kameron LangleyNorth Carolina A&TBSthAll-Def-20213.6^0.3-0.7
Antonio RizzutoTowsonCAAAll-Def-20211.3^0.6-0.7
Dylan PainterDelawareCAAAll-Def-20211^4-0.7
Mehkel HarveyWilliam & MaryCAAAll-Def-20212.6^10.6-0.7
Garrett CovingtonYoungstown St.HorzAll-Def-20211.6^0-0.7
Kevin JohnsonIllinois ChicagoHorzAll-Def-20211.9^0.5-0.7
Malik MillerMorgan St.MEACAll-Def-20213.1^2.8-0.7
Stacy BecktonAmericanPatAll-Def-20212.5^2.1-0.7
Jonas HarperBoston UniversityPatAll-Def-20211.9^0.3-0.7
Javon LeviUT ArlingtonSBAll-Def-20213.7^0.1-0.7
Zep JasperAuburnSECAll-Def-20211.9^0.3-0.7
Clayton HenryNew Mexico St.WACAll-Def-20211.4^0.5-0.7

March Madness 2: Coaches with Deepest March Madness Runs

The second key factor in winning March Madness games is if a team's coach has one games and made runs in the past. 

Before picking that big upset, consider that 72% of Division I NCAA teams are coached by a team that has NEVER won a single NCAA tournament game. 

We clicked on the coaches for all 358 teams in www.kenpom.com and realized 257 of 358 never advanced past Round 1 (R1). To make it much easier for you, if you simply search this blog for a team you are considering picking, and nothing is found, then the teams coach has never won a tournament game while coaching that team or any previously teams. We set up a rating system for each coaches' deep runs, but before we explain that, we will start with the seven coaches who get a "10." These seven coaches are the only ones who have both won an NCAA title and taken a second team at least to the championship game. Some have won more than one, but once a coach has taken at least two teams to the title game and won it at least once, we give him a "10."

 
TeamConfCurrent coachDeep Run Rating
DukeACCMike Krzyzewski10
IonaMAACRick Pitino10
KansasB12Bill Self10
KentuckySECJohn Calipari10
Michigan St.B10Tom Izzo10
SyracuseACCJim Boeheim10
VillanovaBEJay Wright10

The next 67 coaches have won at least two tournament games at some point in their coaching career. To rate them in order, we give them credit for their two deepest tournament runs, starting with their best run: 7 points if the coach won the National Title. 6 pionts if the coach took a team to the title game but lost. 5 points if the coach took the team to the Final 4. 4 points if the coach took the team to the Elite 8. 3 points if the coach took the team to the Sweet 16. 2 points if the coach won a game to go to the second round. 

To give more credit to coaches who had more than one run, we then looked at each coaches second deepest run and added the following number of points: 3 points for making a second title game (whether they won or lost). 2 points for making it to the Elite 8 or Final 4. 1 point for winning at least one game in a second tournament. When you add these points together the seven listed on the table above are the only ones who get a "10" for the championship and at least one extra trip to the title game, but the following coaches all won at least two tournament games (if that is all then they get a "3" whether it was two wins in one tournament or a single win in two different touranments) all the way up to 9 points for a title run and another run to at least the Elite 8, etc.

 
TeamConfCurrent coachDeep Run Rating
BaylorB12Scott Drew9
GonzagaWCCMark Few9
High PointBSthTubby Smith9
VirginiaACCTony Bennett9
AuburnSECBruce Pearl7
Detroit MercyHorzMike Davis7
HoustonAmerKelvin Sampson7
Miami FLACCJim LarraƱaga7
Mississippi St.SECBen Howland7
South CarolinaSECFrank Martin7
TennesseeSECRick Barnes7
GeorgiaSECTom Crean (left)6
MarquetteBEShaka Smart6
Notre DameACCMike Brey6
OklahomaB12Porter Moser6
OregonP12Dana Altman6
UCLAP12Mick Cronin6
West VirginiaB12Bob Huggins6
ArkansasSECEric Musselman5
Cal St. NorthridgeBWMark Gottfried5
Eastern MichiganMACStan Heath5
FloridaSECMichael White5
Florida St.ACCLeonard Hamilton5
LouisvilleACCChris Mack (left)5
PittsburghACCJeff Capel III5
PurdueB10Matt Painter5
St. John'sBEMike Anderson5
TCUB12Jamie Dixon5
TexasB12Chris Beard5
Texas A&MSECBuzz Williams5
USCP12Andy Enfield5
AkronMACJohn Groce4
AlabamaSECNate Oats4
Cal St. BakersfieldBWRod Barnes4
Coastal CarolinaSBCliff Ellis4
CreightonBEGreg McDermott4
DavidsonA10Bob McKillop4
EvansvilleMVCTodd Lickliter4
HarvardIvyTommy Amaker4
Kent St.MACRob Senderoff4
Long Beach St.BWDan Monson4
LSUSECWill Wade4
MichiganB10Juwan Howard4
NebraskaB10Fred Hoiberg4
NevadaMWCSteve Alford4
Northern IowaMVCBen Jacobson4
Ohio St.B10Chris Holtmann4
Oregon St.P12Wayne Tinkle4
PepperdineWCCLorenzo Romar4
Saint Mary'sWCCRandy Bennett4
Tarleton St.WACBilly Gillispie4
UCFAmerJohnny Dawkins4
WisconsinB10Greg Gard4
CaliforniaP12Mark Fox3
ClemsonACCBrad Brownell3
ColoradoP12Tad Boyle3
ConnecticutBEDan Hurley3
Georgia TechACCJosh Pastner3
IllinoisB10Brad Underwood3
IowaB10Fran McCaffery3
MissouriSECCuonzo Martin (left)3
Northern KentuckyHorzDarrin Horn3
Oral RobertsSumPaul Mills3
PennIvySteve Donahue3
RichmondA10Chris Mooney3
UC DavisBWJim Les3
Western KentuckyCUSARick Stansbury3

Do note that we put (left) by coaches from this season who have won more than one tournament game but have left their program listed. That includes Tom Crean from Georgia, Chris Mack at Louisville and Cuonzo Martin from Missouri. It also includes coaches who had runs at big problem years ago and are finishing at smaller programs such as Mike Davis (Indiana run but now at Detroit Mercy), Mark Gottfried (Alabama runs but now at Cal St. Northridge) and Cliff Ellis (National Coach of the Year at Auburn in 1999 and now at Coastal Carolina). Finding out where coaches had gone made this a fun though time consuming effort.

The following are the 30 coaches who have won one tournament game, but only one. the first win is the toughest, so a coach on this list is probably more likely to pull an upset than a coach who has never won a tournament game.
 
TeamConfCurrent coachDeep Run Rating
ButlerBELaVall Jordan2
DaytonA10Anthony Grant2
HawaiiBWEran Ganot2
LehighPatBrett Reed2
LibertyASunRitchie McKay2
MarshallCUSADan D'Antoni2
MississippiSECKermit Davis2
Murray St.OVCMatt McMahon2
New MexicoMWCRichard Pitino (son)2
North TexasCUSAGrant McCasland2
NorthwesternB10Chris Collins2
Northwestern St.SlndMike McConathy2
OhioMACJeff Boals2
Oklahoma St.B12Mike Boynton2
ProvidenceBEEd Cooley2
RutgersB10Steve Pikiell2
Saint LouisA10Travis Ford2
Seton HallBEKevin Willard2
South FloridaAmerBrian Gregory2
StanfordP12Jerod Haase2
Tennessee TechOVCJohn Pelphrey2
TulaneAmerRon Hunter2
TulsaAmerFrank Haith2
UABCUSAAndy Kennedy2
UC IrvineBWRussell Turner2
Utah St.MWCRyan Odom2
UTEPCUSAJoe Golding2
WashingtonP12Mike Hopkins2
Western IllinoisSumRob Jeter2
YaleIvyJames Jones2

The 257 teams with coaches who have never won an NCAA tournament game are not listed, but if you didn't find a team you are considering in a search, then their coach has never won a tournament game.

Friday, March 11, 2022

March Madness 1: Teams with Most NBA Talent

The first of a series of pieces will will post this weekend to help you fill out your March Madness brackets regards how much future NBA talent a team can put on the court. Fans tend to overestimate how many of their players will be in the NBA. In fact, only about 40 of the 4,000+ players on the court this year will be playing in the NBA within a couple of years.

This weekend we will update www.valueaddbasketball.com with a column for the percent chance a player will make the NBA. Auburn's Jabari Smith has the highest rating at 99, meaning he has a 99% chance of making the NBA (due to injuries etc., we never give 100%).

To determine how many players from a team will make the NBA we add up the percentage for each of their players with at least a 20% chance of making the NBA. His teammate Walker Kessler has an 87% chance, Devan Cambridge at 63% chance and Allen Flanigan a 40% chance. Add the odds - 99% + 87% + 63% + 40% = 289% - meaning we would expect 2.89 current Auburn players to make the NBA.

That's the 9th most future NBA talent of either team, with Duke (4.74) edging out Kentucky (4.54), Gonzaga (4.36) and an underachieving Memphis (3.94) for the most talent on the court.

Here is the whole list of teams with at least one player with at least a 20% chance of making the League. You can look up which players on each team have a chance at www.valueaddbasketball.com.
 
Most NBATeamFuture NBA Players
1Duke4.74
2Kentucky4.54
3Gonzaga4.36
4Memphis3.94
5Baylor3.47
6Alabama3.31
7North Carolina3.15
8LSU3.00
9Auburn2.89
10Kansas2.88
11Arizona2.86
12Texas2.73
13UCLA2.66
14Tennessee2.57
15Florida St.2.43
16Purdue2.27
17Michigan2.25
18Villanova2.17
19Michigan St.2.03
20Oklahoma St.1.94
21Connecticut1.93
22Illinois1.74
23USC1.68
24Ohio St.1.62
25N.C. State1.61
26Mississippi St.1.60
27Iowa1.57
28Notre Dame1.54
29Iowa St.1.51
30Seton Hall1.40
31Texas Tech1.39
32Indiana1.36
33TCU1.36
34Arkansas1.34
35Dayton1.21
36Florida1.18
37Virginia Tech1.05
38Nebraska1.03
39Rutgers1.02
40Georgia Tech1.01
41Maryland1.00
42Oregon0.99
43Colorado0.98
44Xavier0.96
45Louisville0.95
46Wisconsin0.93
47Stanford0.88
48Fresno St.0.86
49Miami FL0.85
50Milwaukee0.85
51St. John's0.85
52St. Bonaventure0.81
53San Francisco0.80
54Marshall0.76
55San Diego St.0.73
56Wake Forest0.72
57Georgetown0.65
58Texas A&M0.65
59Houston0.64
60Saint Joseph's0.64
61Santa Clara0.63
62Mississippi0.61
63VCU0.61
64Western Kentucky0.61
65Colorado St.0.60
66Charlotte0.59
67West Virginia0.59
68Wichita St.0.58
69Syracuse0.54
70BYU0.49
71Detroit Mercy0.47
72Boise St.0.46
73Clemson0.44
74UC Santa Barbara0.42
75Vanderbilt0.41
76Oral Roberts0.39
77South Florida0.39
78Arizona St.0.38
79Buffalo0.38
80Marquette0.36
81Oregon St.0.36
82Washington St.0.35
83Liberty0.34
84Louisiana Tech0.34
85Northern Iowa0.33
86Toledo0.32
87Butler0.31
88Georgia0.29
89Cal Baptist0.28
90Lipscomb0.28
91Montana St.0.28
92Tennessee St.0.28
93Utah St.0.28
94Louisiana0.27
95SMU0.27
96South Carolina0.27
97Duquesne0.26
98Saint Peter's0.26
99Utah0.26
100Creighton0.25
101Hawaii0.25
102Richmond0.25
103Virginia0.24
104Saint Louis0.22
105San Jose St.0.22
106Nevada0.21
107Florida Gulf Coast0.20
108Providence0.20
109UCF0.20
110UTEP0.20

Thursday, March 10, 2022

Is My School in March Madness? Alphabetical Answer

It was great to see Shaka Smart at the helm of Marquette in the Big East Tournament, but as my CBS 247 story notes, the end result was Marquette's Madison Square Garden "House of Horrors" Extends to 4th Year.

However, for casual fans who might ask, "Is my school in the tournament?" the following provides a cheat sheet. For example, if you go to Marquette below in the alphabetical list you will see the following:

8.1MarquetteBig East3719-11Lock

The first number (8.1) indicates the average seed Marquette should receive is an 8-seed in the tournament, based on more than 100 experts' brackets selections. If your team averages a 10 or better they are pretty sure to make the tournament. Since I have Auburn fans who read this blog, the 1.3 means most have Auburn as a 1-seed, but some do have them as a 2-seed. The worst number is a 21.0 since we give a 21-seed for anyone who leaves the team off their bracket, so a 21.0 means none of the experts believe they will make the tournament (typically a weaker team whose tournament is still going on so mathematically they could win their tournament to automatically get a bid.

The number after the team (37) is the official NCAA Basketball Net rating. In general, the 1 to 47 net ratings would go to the tournament with the 48 and worse teams eliminated by automatic qualifiers who have worse net rankings but won their conference tournament.

After the team's record, I categorize the team as one of the following:

Champ - means they already won their conference tournament so are in the NCAA tournament.

Lock - means the team is definitely in the tournament whether or not they win their conference tournament.

Probably - means they should be picked for the tournament, and it would be a surprise if not.

Uphill - means the could be picked, but probably note.

Must Win - is teams that are only on the list because they are still alive in their tournament, and we list the day and time of their conferences championship game.




 
Ave. SeedTeamConferenceNetRecordStatus
21.0Abilene ChristianWAC12917-9must win 10 p.m. March 12
21.0AkronMAC14619-9must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
5.9AlabamaSEC2719-12Lock
21.0Alabama A&MSWAC32011 & 17must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
18.0Alcorn St.SWAC33610 & 22must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
1.0ArizonaPacific-12228-3Lock
4.2ArkansasSEC2024-7Lock
1.3AuburnSEC1027-4Lock
1.0BaylorBig 12326-5Lock
7.9Boise St.Mountain West14813-19Probably
15.9BryantNortheast20221-9CHAMP
20.0BYUWest Coast5420-10Lock
20.8Cal St. FullertonBig West16916-10must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
12.9ChattanoogaSouthern6325-7CHAMP
14.6ColgatePatriot12722-11CHAMP
21.0ColoradoPacific-127420-10must win 9 p.m. March 12 on FOX
6.7Colorado St.Mountain West2823-4Lock
5.0ConnecticutBig East1822-8Lock
21.0Coppin St.Mid-Eastern3038 & 22must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0CornellIvy19913 & 10must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
10.5CreightonBig East6620-10Probably
10.7DavidsonAtlantic 104524-5Uphill, unless win 1 p.m. March 13
20.2DaytonAtlantic 105222-9Lock
14.8DelawareColonial13621-12CHAMP
2.3DukeACC926-5Lock
21.0DuquesneAtlantic 102806 & 24must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0Eastern WashingtonBig Sky22116-14must win March 12 on ESPNU
20.5FloridaSEC5519-12Uphill
21.0Florida A&MSWAC31011 & 16must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
21.0Florida AtlanticCUSA12316 & 13must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0FordhamAtlantic 1018015-15must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0George MasonAtlantic 1011014-15must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0George WashingtonAtlantic 1022312 & 17must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
15.3Georgia St.Sun Belt15815-10CHAMP
1.0GonzagaWest Coast126-3CHAMP
21.0Grambling St.SWAC3119 & 19must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
20.9Grand CanyonWAC8820-7must win 10 p.m. March 12
21.0HawaiiBig West16414-10must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
5.0HoustonAmerican526-5Lock
3.9IllinoisBig Ten1422-8Lock
19.0IndianaBig Ten4318-12Uphill
6.2IowaBig Ten1522-9Lock
8.2Iowa St.Big 123920-11Lock
15.2Jacksonville St.Atlantic Sun14019-10CHAMP
1.7KansasBig 12725-6Lock
21.0Kansas St.Big 127714-17must win 6 p.m. March 12
21.0Kent St.MAC13019-11must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
1.9KentuckySEC425-6Lock
21.0La SalleAtlantic 1022211 & 18must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
16.2Long Beach St.Big West15416-11must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
14.5LongwoodBig South12522-6CHAMP
21.0Louisiana TechCUSA10319-9must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
10.4Loyola-ChicagoMissouri Valley2424-7CHAMP
5.9LSUSEC1721-10Lock
8.1MarquetteBig East3719-11Lock
21.0MassachusettsAtlantic 1018514-16must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0McNeese St.Southland3137 & 13must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0MD Eastern ShoreMid-Eastern3008 & 14must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
10.1MemphisAmerican3519-9Probably
10.8Miami (FLA.)ACC6122-9Probably
10.3MichiganBig Ten3117-13Probably
8.0Michigan St.Big Ten3820-11Lock
21.0Middle TennesseeCUSA10420-9must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0Mississippi St.SEC5519-12must win 1 p.m. March 13 on ESPN
20.8MonmouthMetro Atlantic14219-12must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
14.5Montana St.Big Sky13222-7must win March 12 on ESPNU
21.0Morgan St.Mid-Eastern3018 & 13must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
7.5Murray St.Ohio Valley2327-2CHAMP
14.1New Mexico St.WAC8721-6must win 10 p.m. March 12
20.6New OrleansSouthland25414-12must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0NiagraMetro Atlantic20113-15must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
16.3Nicholls St.Southland18817-10must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
15.9Norfolk St.Mid-Eastern16219-6must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
8.7North CarolinaACC3223-8Lock
21.0North Carolina CentralMid-Eastern29011-14must win 1 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
12.5North TexasCUSA4121-5must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0Northern ColoradoBig Sky19816-13must win March 12 on ESPNU
11.2Notre DameACC5021-9Probably
20.9OhioMAC11122-8must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
6.4Ohio St.Big Ten2219-10Lock
20.3OklahomaBig 124217-14Probably
21.0PennIvy20812- 15must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
21.0Penn St.Big Ten9313-16must win 3:30 p.m. March 13 on CBS
21.0Portland St.Big Sky27611-16must win March 12 on ESPNU
13.9PrincetonIvy10120-5must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
4.0ProvidenceBig East2624-4Lock
2.8PurdueBig Ten1325-6Lock
21.0QuinnipiacMetro Atlantic23912-16must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0Rhode IslandAtlantic 1013814-15must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0RichmondAtlantic 109219-12must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0RiderMetro Atlantic24213-18must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
13.6RutgersBig Ten7818-12Uphill
21.0Saint Joseph'sAtlantic 1018111-19must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0Saint LouisAtlantic 106220-10must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
21.0Sam HoustonWAC14916-13must win 10 p.m. March 12
8.6San Diego St.Mountain West2921-7Lock
9.6San FranciscoWest Coast2523-9Probably
20.4SeattleWAC12421-8must win 10 p.m. March 12
7.4Seton HallBig East3420-9Lock
13.8SMUAmerican4922-7Uphill
12.1South Dakota St.Summit6428-4CHAMP
21.0South FloridaAmerican244 8-22must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
21.0Southeastern LASouthland26214-13must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0Southern UtahBig Sky16618-10must win March 12 on ESPNU
20.9St. BonaventureAtlantic 108520-8must win 1 p.m. March 13 on CBS Sports
5.4St. Mary's (CA)West Coast1924-7Lock
17.2St. Peter'sMetro Atlantic13116-11must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
20.9Stephen F. AustinWAC10918-8must win 10 p.m. March 12
8.9TCUBig 124619-11Probably
21.0TempleAmerican10717-11must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
2.8TennesseeSEC823-7Lock
5.1TexasBig 121621-10Lock
21.0Texas A&MSEC5519-12must win 1 p.m. March 13 on ESPN
21.0Texas A&M CCSouthland25216-11must win 9:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
19.5Texas SouthernSWAC21216-12must win 6 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU
3.0Texas TechBig 121223-8must win 6 p.m. March 12
13.1ToledoMAC6524-6must win 7:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0TulaneAmerican9713-14must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
21.0TulsaAmerican18210 & 19must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
20.4UABCUSA5322-7must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0UC DavisBig West21012 & 9must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0UC RiversideBig West15614-11must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0UC Santa BarbaraBig West14114-10must win 11:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN2
21.0UCFAmerican9517-11must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
3.9UCLAPacific-121123-6Lock
6.8USCPacific-123325-6Lock
20.9Utah St.Mountain West6017-14must win 6 p.m. March 12 on CBS
21.0Utah ValleyWAC11618-12must win 10 p.m. March 12
21.0UTEPCUSA16117-12must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on CBSSN
21.0VanderbiltSEC5519-12must win 1 p.m. March 13 on ESPN
17.1VCUAtlantic 105121-8Uphill, unless win 1 p.m. March 13
13.0VermontAmerica East5626-5Uphill, unless win 11 am March 12
2.4VillanovaBig East623-7Lock
20.9VirginiaACC7919-12must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN
20.4Virginia TechACC3620-12must win 8:30 p.m. March 12 on ESPN
14.2Wake ForestACC4423-9Uphill
21.0WashingtonPacific-1211417-14must win 9 p.m. March 12 on FOX
20.8Washington St.Pacific-125919-13must win 9 p.m. March 12 on FOX
20.8Weber St.Big Sky17518-11must win March 12 on ESPNU
21.0West VirginiaBig 127616-16must win 6 p.m. March 12
21.0Wichita St.American8115-12must win 3:15 p.m. ET March 13 on ESPN
3.0WisconsinBig Ten2124-6Lock
15.9Wright St.Horizon19220-13CHAMP
11.6WyomingMountain West4723-7Probably
13.1XavierBig East4018-13Uphill
21.0YaleIvy15216-11must win 4 p.m. March 12 on ESPNU

Saturday, March 5, 2022

If Key and Young Out for Ohio State, Michigan Becomes Favorite (and 30 other teams missing key players)

At www.kenpom.com, Wyoming is favored 64-60 in a huge game with Fresno State. However, Hunter Maldanado is listed as questionable, and if he does not play www.valueaddbasketball.com calculates that costs Wyoming 9 points - changing the projections from a 4-point win to a 5-point loss.

The costs of a player missing the game is calculated as follows at www.valueaddbasketball.com. If the missing player is not listed as one of the seven most valuable players on the team, then the impact is very small. However, if the player is one of the team's seven best, then you take his Value Add and subtract the Value Add of the 8th best player on the team. In this case Maldonado ranks near All-American level at a 9.44 Value Add and Wyoming's 8th best player is worth only 0.08 (they are not a deep team) so him being missing costs the team 9.36. 

Kenny Foster is also out, but he has been out all but a few games, so at this point they've mainly played without him anyway - so the current ratings is almost exactly correct. 

The team hurt the second most by missing layers would be Ohio State, if Kyle Young and Zed Key are gone. If they are both out their +4 points projected at www.kenpom.com drops to a projected -4.0 for a loss.

The following are the 30 teams most hurt by current injuries. As you can see, some just appear to be minor and making a player questionable for their next game, but others are season long injuries that will alter a team's ability to win games in March Madness.


Here is the same table in another format.
RnkTeamPlayerPosInjuryValue3rd off BenchTeam Hurt
1WyomingH. MaldonadoGQues Sat - Undisclosed9.440.089.36
  K. FosterGOut indefinitely - Ankle0.350.080.27
2Ohio StK. YoungFQues Sun - Illness5.290.674.62
  Z. KeyFQues Sun - Ankle4.540.673.87
  J. SueingFOut indefinitely - Abdominal1.230.670.56
3DavidsonF. LoyerGQues Sat - Lower Body7.5407.54
4Middle Tennessee St.J. JeffersonGQues Sat - Undisclosed7.940.637.31
5Florida StateM. OsborneFout for season - Ankle4.0513.05
  C. MillsGOut indefinitely - Ankle3.4612.46
  C. FletcherGout for season - Thumb2.5711.57
6IllinoisJ. GrandisonGQues Sun - Shoulder6.881.655.23
  R. MelendezGOut indefinitely - Appendix2.91.651.25
  B. Bosmans-VerdonkFQues Sun - Concussion1.961.650.31
7VCUV. Williams Jr.FQues Sat - Ankle6.861.125.74
  M. TsohonisGQues Sat - Concussion1.321.120.2
8Kansas StateM. NowellGOut Sat - Undisclosed60.075.93
9PurdueS. StefanovicGQues Sat - Finger7.491.75.79
10TempleJ. WilliamsGQues Sun - Undisclosed3.530.692.84
  K. BattleGout for season - Foot2.770.692.08
  J. ForresterFOut indefinitely - Illness1.450.690.76
11BaylorJ. Tchamwa TchatchouaFout for season - Knee5.762.163.6
  L. CryerGMid March - Foot4.182.162.02
12SyracuseJ. EdwardsCout for season - Wrist5.2905.29
  S. TorrenceGQues Sat - Concussion0.2800.28
13UCLAJ. JuzangGQues Sat - Ankle7.512.175.34
14CaliforniaA. KellyFout for season - Ankle6.611.535.08
15TulaneJ. CookGQues Sun - Hamstring5.30.54.8
16UMBCK. KennedyGQues Sun - Undisclosed3.150.392.76
  D. RogersGQues Sun - Undisclosed1.920.391.53
17ClemsonP. HallFQues Sat - Foot4.790.943.85
18ColumbiaJ. OdunowoFout for season - Undisclosed1.620.091.53
  L. MurphyFQues Sat - Undisclosed1.590.091.5
  I. NwekeFQues Sat - Illness0.560.090.47
19DuquesneT. WilliamsCout for season - Knee2.2602.26
  L. Ayers IIIGQues Sat - Undisclosed0.9200.92
  A. RotroffFMid March - Foot0.3200.32
20Central FloridaB. MahanGOut indefinitely - Foot4.721.253.47
21Florida InternationalT. BrewerGQues Sat - Undisclosed4.030.593.44
22FloridaA. DurujiFQues Sat - Ankle4.121.522.6
  J. JitobohCout for season - Eye2.211.520.69
23Utah St.S. AshworthGDoub Fri - Undisclosed4.861.872.99
24HartfordH. MarksFout for season - Undisclosed2.940.042.9
25ChattanoogaS. De SousaFQues Wed - Abdominal3.30.492.81
26Seton HallB. AikenGOut indefinitely - Concussion5.522.782.74
27Boston CollegeT. BickerstaffFOut indefinitely - Calf2.7302.73
28VanderbiltJ. MannGQues Sat - Knee3.581.292.29
  R. ChatmanGMid March - Hamstring1.681.290.39
29Oregon St.W. AlatisheFQues Sat - Undisclosed2.360.012.35
  X. Malone-KeyGOut indefinitely - Back0.060.010.05
30SIU EdwardsvilleR. TaylorGout for season - Knee2.410.032.38

Friday, February 25, 2022

National and Conference MVPs and Best Players

If I had to vote today for National Player of the Year, it would be a choice between the Most Valuable Player in the Country, Iowa's Keegan Murray, and the best player in the country, Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren. 

MVP and POY are not the same thing. A freshman heading into March Madness on the way to the NBA Draft is often the best player in time for the tournament. However, the most valuable player over the course of the season is rarely a freshmen - but an upper classman who does not take all the bad shots or force turnovers trying to wedge between two defenders like even the greatest freshman do for much of the season.

That is why Murray has improved Iowa by 12.49 points per game at www.valueaddbasketball.com to make him the most valuable player in the season, while Holmgren is the top freshman at 11th (9.89).

The following is the list of the Most Valuable Player and Best Freshman in each conference, with a link to the 25 MVPs and top freshmen in each conference at www.valueaddbasketball.com, the a list of the best in the nation.

6 Top Rated Conferences (alphabetical order)

 Other 22 Conferences (alphabetical order)

And here is the list of the top players and freshman in the country in the same form you will see for each conference listed above.


Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) 25 MVPs and Top Freshmen

The following are the 25 most valuable players based on their value above a typical replacement player both offensively and defensively at www.valueaddbasketball.com in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)  .    

Note the freshman appear on bold as they tend to prove more that other players near the end of the season. For an explanation and links to the similar list for the other 31 conferences and the All-American list, click here.