As I've mentioned before, the calculations to make sure Value Add Basketball Game player cards are hard enough when I have the benefit of www.kenpom.com stats. It is all the harder when I do not have them - which means creating men's teams from the last century or women's teams.
While I'll focus on Clark's card I will add one thing I learned in producing the cards is just how dominant an offensive player her center Hannah Stuelke is. She is an elite 1-8 of offensive rebounds meaning anything the offensive center has first chance at a rebound if Clark or another Hawkeye misses, Stuelke gets it on the 1-6 die roll. The range going behind the 6-sided die to 1-8 means she also will almost always grab a high on the court" rebound - except for the rare 1-9 or higher defender.
Then she adds the perfect inside presence with a 1-10 two-pointer made, 11-14 fouled for two shots and only misses on a 15-20. That's one of the best offensive centers of all-time in the game, except that she only gets the ball 12.5 percent of the time (a "5" on the 1-8 die) and like a lot of tall players can't at the whole game (rests of possessions 44-32 and plays 31-1). But with Clark getting the ball 50% of the time that's all Iowa needs - the second option underneath that almost always gets points if you get her the ball.
Yes, I know their aren't many "dunks" in women's basketball, but I developed the dunk range when I started with men's cards to indicated an u contested score by a better team used to playing tough competition.
However I finally went on a binge and have calculated 20 new great women's teams, including a few from this year's tournament, to bring our total to 40. I have not merged them into cards yet, but am providing the sheet with the 10 players from each team, and please do let me know if you followed one of the teams on this sheet and notice anything that looks off to you like a player you know played a bit not being listed. Keep in mind we can only put 10 players on each team, so some are left off, and we are really careful to check and double check, but a quick email to pudnerjohn@gmail.com with any corrections is always appreciated.
I put the 20 new teams in alphabetical order except I listed Iowa first. You can play games using these sheets if you want, but it will be a little easier once I merge them into cards on team to a sheet. Here are a couple of notes on the teams - then below the players i will give a key to which each column means.
I posted a quickie card on Caitlin Clark in my last blog, but when I ran that actual numbers, I came across something that I believe only appears on Pistol Pete Maravich's card. On the 8-sided die at the start of each possession, Clark gets the ball on a 1, 6, 7 or 8 - half of the time. The calculation for this is the total percent of the time a player is on the court that they are the one who gets off the shot.
44% or above means the player gets the ball on their position roll (1 is point guard) and on all three extra numbers - 6, 7 and 8, and Clark now joins Pistol Pete in having that card.
32% to 43% the player gets the ball on two extra numbers, so a 6 and 7 or 7 and 8.
19% to 31% is a typical go to scorer who gets the ball on one extra number - a 6, 7 or 8 in addition to their position number. Most of the time a team has three go-to-players on the court with two numbers and then two other players who only get it on their 1-5 position roll.
9% to 18% get the ball on their position roll only.
0% to 8% has "roll" in the "extra" column and on their cards once printing, and that means that even though the ball went to the player, they rarely shoot and the team must roll the die again and if it is an even number they shoot, but on an odd number (1, 3, 5 or 7) they turn it over without getting off a shot).
The only weaknesses on Clark's card is that she turns it over a lot (41-45 with 41-46 being the worst) due to all the defensive attention, and she does not grab many offensive rebounds due to playing so far from the basket on many trips to shoot. However, when she puts it up you go to the 20-sided die, and a1-4 is a 3-pointer made, a 5-8 is a 2-pointer made, a 9-11 she is fouled and gets two shots, and on a 12-20 she misses.
The team also has a great 51-62 "lay-up" range which is adjusted by the opponents defense and can be an automatic basket on the 11-66 roll each position without even having to go to the 20-sided die.
The combo of that and a really strong all around team makes Iowa the best offense of the 20 new great teams - with a +6 rating meaning we believe even against the other 39 great teams that this year's Iowa squad would score about 6 points more per 100 trips down the court (126 - 120) - and a game goes about 2-3rds that long - so a 4-point win on overage against other great teams.
That being said, the 120 defensive rating is by far the worst defense of the 20 new teams, and the +7 adjustment to opponents' lay-up range will mean Iowa allows a lot of easy baskets too.
The best defense in the game is Rutgers 2007,which looks just lock down. Kia Vaughn is a great shot blocker (21-26, 32 against all opposing players) and they have a -3 on defense an we expect them to allow only about 88 points per 100 trips - thought they are the reverse of Iowa with perhaps the worst offense of the 20 new teams. Although we had to laugh to see Virginia 2018 is battling them for worst offense, so maybe Coach Bennett is moonlighting and coaching the women and the men.
But by far the best new team is this years South Carolina. They look tough to beat both on TV and in the game, but we will see how it plays out in both.
We did not add UConn's team from this year because we have tried to keep it to one team from each school or at most two. We are adding South Carolina this year to the 2017 team, and the only two other schools with two teams are UConn and Baylor.
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| All-time Great | School | Year of card, career | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seimone Augustus | Louisiana St. | No, 2003-06 | |
| Sue Bird | UConn | No, 1999-02 | |
| Kalani Brown | Baylor | 2012, 2010-13 | |
| Rebekkah Brunson | Georgetown | No. 2001-04 | |
| Tamika Catchings | Tennessee | 1998, 1998-01 | |
| Tina Charles | UConn | 2010, 2007-`0 | |
| Caitlin Clark | Iowa | 2024, 2021-24 | |
| Cynthia Cooper | USC | 1983, 1983-86 | |
| Elena Delle Donne | Delaware | No, 2010-13 | |
| Sylvia Fowles | LSU | No, 2005-08 | |
| Yolanda Griffith | Florida Atlantic | No, 1992-93 | |
| Brittney Griner | Baylor | 2012, 2010-13 | |
| Becky Hammon | Colorado St. | No, 1996-99 | |
| Chamique Holdsclaw | Tennessee | 1998, 1996-99 | |
| Lauren Jackson | Australia pro | No | |
| Lisa Leslie | Southern Cal | 1993, 1990-94 | |
| Angel McCoughtry | Louisville | No, 2006-09 | |
| Cheryl Miller | USC | 1983, 1983-86 | |
| Maya Moore | UConn | 2010, 2007-11 | |
| Nneka Ogwumike | Stanford | No, 2009-12 | |
| Candace Parker | Tennessee | 2008, 2005-08 | |
| Cappie Pondexter | Rutgers | No, 2003-06 | |
| Katie Smith | Ohio St. | No, 1993-96 | |
| Breanna Stewart | UConn | 2012-16 | |
| Sheryl Swoopes | Texas Tech | 1991-93 | |
| Diana Taurasi | UConn | 2000-04 | |
| Penny Taylor | Australia pro | No | |
| Tina Thompson | USC | No, 1994-97 | |
| Lindsay Whalen | Minnesota | No, 2001-04 |
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