PudnerSports.com

Thursday, July 6, 2023

Nats Embarrassed in Opener 13-6, But Beat Marlins 7-1 in Nightcap

The big news is the next blog posted will be the first update in a while on the Statis-Pro AL season, where the teaser alert is that Tampa has gone on an 8-game winning streak after starting slow in Statis-Pro and red hot in the actual MLB season.

Wrapping up 1 item in the NL Statis-Pro season first ...

The teams we relegate in our Statis-Pro season only play a couple of series against the others. The 11 teams we include play each of the other 10 twice, and then play two of the four relegated teams.

St. Louis, Colorado and Pittsburgh had already played games as relegated teams, but we finally played the Washington Nationals Statis-Pro team for the first time. They were embarrassed in the opener against the Marlins 13-6, but then rallied for a 7-1 win. We will include photos of their scoresheets below, but first here are the updated standings for each of our Statis-Pro teams.

To the left we list what place each team is in and the games they still need to play to get to the 48-game mark, which is really 8 of their 12 series complete. The Giants and Marlins started late, so the Giants still have four series remaining to get to that mark, while the Marlins still have five series to play and have honestly had an incredibly easy schedule with the last place Padres and already playing both their relegated opponents (Colorado and Washington).

The other nine teams only have one doubleheader left each to get to the 48-game/8 series mark

Getting each team to 8 series (16 games for 48 "games)	Final 4 Series
1. LA Dodgers 28-14 - play SF	Cin, Miami, NY, Phil
2. Miami 16-8- play Atl, Cin, NYM, Phil, SF	Chi, LA, Mil,Phil
3. Milwaukee 27-15 - play SF	Chic, Mia, NY, Phil
4. San Fran 13-11 - play LA, Mil, Mia, SD	AZ, Atl, Ci, Was
5. Atlanta 22-20 - Mia	AZ, NY, SF, SD
6. Arizona 20-22 - ChC	Atl, Cin, SF, Col
Playoff Cut off
7. Chicago Cubs 20-22 - Arz	Mia, Phil, SF, StLorPit
8. NY Mets 20-22 - play Mia	Atl, LA,Mil, Was
9. Cincinnati 18-24 - play Mia	AZ, LA, SD, Col
10. Philadelphia 17-25 - play Col	Chi, LA, Mil, Col
11. San Diego 16-26 - play SF	Atl, Cin, Mil, Was

Relegated Col, Pitt, StL, Wash

Here are the photos of the Nationals-Marlins double header.

Nats 7, Marlins 1 in game 2

Marlins 13, Nats 6 in Game 1

Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Miami Homers off Star Bard for 6-5 Win, Completes Sweep 5-3

We cursed incredible Rockies reliever with the piece we did yesterday. He came into a 5-5 tie to face the No. 9 hitters in the Marlins line-up.

Bard's PB 2-8 meant he would keep it on his card if 26 of 36 combinations (dice rolls or in our game fast action card range) but the result was a 10 to leave the card on Nick Fortes card.

The random number was the a 25, the only clean home run number of 64 numbers from 11-88. Fortes home run range is 25-26, but Rockies pitchers turn the highest home run number is change to a fly out, so 25 was the only chance.

If a 27-31 had come up for a deep drive it would have almost certainly been a homer since the subsequent number would have been a homer in 11-77 and only out would have been 78-88. But 25 was the only clear homer.

The surprising Marlins held on for the 6-5 win, then won the nightcap back in Miami 5-3. Every team has now played in our Statis-Pro season except the Washington Nationals.

Below is the picture of the fateful home run flip, followed by both scoresheets.

Game 1: Miami scorecard for 6-5 win at Colorado.

Game 2: Miami wins 5-3 hosting Colorado

Statis-Pro Chart for Runners Taking Extra Base in 2023

We wanted our Statis-Pro games to reflect the fact that baserunners are not only stealing more bases, but coming home from 2nd base very regularly. This is the result of Major League Baseball making bases larger and closer together, and even the shift rules making outfielders run further to field some singles that can not longer be cutoff by an infielder playing in the outfielder, we adjusted the extra base chart.

The following players have taken an extra base the majority of times on base regardless of situation; Tim Anderson (CWS), Andrew Benintendi (CWS), Rafael Devers (Bos), Mauricio Dubón (Hou), Ty France (Sea), Adolis García (Tex), Gunnar Henderson (Bal), Aaron Hicks (Bal), Aaron Judge (NYY), Steven Kwan (Cle), Zach McKinstry (Det), Whit Merrifield (Tor), Jeremy Peña (Hou), Luis Robert Jr. (CWS), Julio Rodríguez (Sea), Marcus Semien (Tex), Myles Straw (Cle), Leody Taveras (Tex), Kyle Tucker (Hou), Daulton Varsho (Tor) and Alex Verdugo (Bos).

That Statis-Pro game uses a chart matching a baserunners On Base Rating (OBR) from A (fastest) to E (slowest) against the throwing arm of the outfielder from T5 (best arm) to T2 (weakest arm).

The following are the updated charts for any player trying to score from 2nd base on a single or from 1st base on a double, or trying to go from 1st to 3rd base on a single.

The problem with the charts when the game first game out is that the percentage of runners thrown out were much too high. I adjusted the charts several years ago to reflect that runners made it 1st to 3rd base on a single only 30% of the time, but were also only thrown out 1% of the time. Clearly the most common results was the runner had no chance even if you wanted to try for the base, so held.

This season the overall average range on which a runners should be thrown out if he tried to take the extra base every time is 86-88 (out of 11-88) going 2nd to home, 87-88 on 1st to home on a double, or only on an 88 going 1st to 3rd. The big difference now is the overall average of making it from 2nd to home on a single would be 11-57, leaving 58-85 as ranges on which the player would stop at 3rd base.

We make both the advance range and the out range bigger since players would not always try for the extra base. We keep the same "Out" range we've used for years - 81-88 if the outfielder is a T5, 83-88 if T4, 85-88 if a T3 and 87-88 if a T2.

Here are the new charts, followed by optional adjustments based on the type of hit and if there are two outs, and then the actual number of times each thing has happened as of July 4, 2023.

The earlier adjustment we made for stolen bases was simply using the existing charts, but if the player would have been caught stealing and the Random Number was ODD, then he just held the base and was not able to get a break to steal. That takes the stolen base success percentage from 64% to 82%, which is the actual change in Major League Baseball this season.

2nd to home on 1b	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-87 / out 88	11'-77 / out 85-88	11'-67 / out 83-88	11'-57 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-77 / out 87-88	11'-67 / out 85-88	11'-57 / out 83-88	11'-47 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-67 / out 87-88	11'-57 / out 85-88	11'-47 / out 83-88	11'-37 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-57 / out 87-88	11'-47 / out 85-88	11'-37 / out 83-88	11'-27 / out 81-88
OBR E	11'-47 / out 87-88	11'-37 / out 85-88	11'-27 / out 83-88	11'-17 / out 81-88

1st to home on 2b	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-73 / out 87-88	11'-63 / out 85-88	11'-53 / out 83-88	11'-43 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-63 / out 87-88	11'-53 / out 85-88	11'-43 / out 83-88	11'-33 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR E	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt

1st to 3B on 1B9	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-73 / out 87-88	11'-63 / out 85-88	11'-53 / out 83-88	11'-43 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-63 / out 87-88	11'-53 / out 85-88	11'-43 / out 83-88	11'-33 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR E	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt

1st to 3B on 1B8	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-63 / out 87-88	11'-53 / out 85-88	11'-43 / out 83-88	11'-33 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR D	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt
OBR E	11'-23 / out 87-88	11'-13 / out 85-88	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt

1st to 3B on 1B7	T2	T3	T4	T5
OBR A	11'-53 / out 87-88	11'-43 / out 85-88	11'-33 / out 83-88	11'-23 / out 81-88
OBR B	11'-43 / out 87-88	11'-33 / out 85-88	11'-23 / out 83-88	11'-13 / out 81-88
OBR C	11'-33 / out 87-88	11'-23 / out 85-88	11'-13 / out 83-88	Cannot attempt
OBR D	11'-23 / out 87-88	11'-13 / out 85-88	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt
OBR E	11'-13 / out 87-88	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt	Cannot attempt

Decide before the game if you want these optional adjustments to the ranges above.

Optional Adjustments	Use 1st that applies	if 0 or 1 outs	if 2 outs
Regular Hit	any odd number RN	Same	add 20
Texas Leaguer	can divide RN by 12	add 40	add 60
Bloop	can divide RN by 4	add 20	add 40
Line Drive	can divide RN by 2	subtract 20	Same

The numbers above are based on these numbers.


Random Number 11-88	1st to 3rd on 1B	2nd to home on single	1st to home on double
Advances Extra Base	11-33	11-57	11-43
Only advances same as hitter	34-87	58-85	44-86
Out trying to Advance	88	86-88	87-88

Based on actual occurances through 7/4	1st to 3rd on 1B	2nd to home on single	1st to home on double
Advances Extra Base	2524	2887	1062
Only advances same as hitter	5691	1707	1420
Out trying to Advance	109	191	62

Below are the Clutch Defensive Charts so you have them in one place.

C-CD (Catcher)	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Foul Out	11'-18	12'-18	11'-38	11'-48	11'-58
Passed Ball	21-58	31-58	41-58	51-58	61-64
Infield single	61-88	61-78	61-68	61-64	65-66
Lead runner out		81-88	71-88	65-88	67-88

1st Base & 3rd Base	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off	11'-18	11'-28	11'-38	11'-48	11'-58
Grounder, lead runner thrown out even if no force	21-28	31-48	41-58	51-68	61-78
Line Drive single, advance 2 bases	31-58	51-68	61-78	71-84	81-88
Double down line, runners score	61-88	71-88	81-88	85-88

Shortstop, 2nd Base or Pitcher	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off	11'-18	28-Nov	11'-38	11'-48	11'-58
Grounder, lead runner thrown out even if no force	21-28	31-48	41-58	51-68	51-78
Hard Grounder through for Single, runners advance 2 bases	31-88	51-88	61-68	71-88	81-88

Outfielder	CD1	CD2	CD3	CD4	CD5
Line Out, Lead Runner Doubled off	None	None	11'-14	11'-18	11'-24
Nice catch of line drive, runners hold	11'-18	11'-28	15-38	21-48	25-48
Nice catch of deep drive, runner on 2nd and/or 3rd advance	21-28	31-48	41-58	51-68	51-78
Line drive single, advance 1 base	31-58	51-68	61-78	71-84	81-88
Line drive double, runners score	61-78	71-82	81-86	85-88
Line drive triple	81-88	83-88	87-88

Here is the updated Steal Chart.

Results (not odd RN never out stealing, worst case holds)	Steal 2b	Steal 3b
Steal unless SP: E	11'-14	11'-14
Steal if AAA, AA, A, B or C	15-23	15-17
Steal if AAA, AA, A or B	24-32	18-28
Steal if AAA, AA or A	33-46	31-38
Runner Out Stealing (odd number holds)	47-52	41-52
Runner Out if Catcher TA or TB (steal if TC, if out on odd RN holds)	53-56	53-55
Runner Out if Catcher TA (steal if TB or TC, if out on odd RN holds)	57-63	56-61
Holds, cannot get break	64-68	62-67
TA picks off catcher, otherwise hold	71-71	68-68
TA or TB picks off catcher, otherwise hold	72-72	71-71
Steal if AAA or AA	73-78	72-76
Steal if AAA	81-88	77-82
Runner Holds		83-88

Here are the Z-Plays so you have all in one place.

Bard's Amazing PB 2-8 Statis-Pro Card

As everyone knows, pitching in Coors Field is brutal. The adjustment we use in Statis-Pro is that a Colorado pitcher takes away one home run number from each opposing batter in the game, so a HR 31-33 is still a homer in a 31-32 but a deep fly out on a 33 with all runners advancing.

The DEEP range on the same batter would be 34-36, and if that happens in Coors Field then the next card of 11-77 would be a homer. Likewise, when Rockies batting cards are calculated a homer is subtracted that is already not in the card when we release them.

On the cards just printed the Rockies have two PB 2-6 (German Marquez and Austin Gomber) and two PB 2-5 (Antonio Senzateoa and the +++ upgrades Kyle Freeland from a PB 2-4 to a PB 2-5).

Below the pitchers is the lineup we have chosen. We also use Elehuris Montero sometimes in left. Great singles hitter.

July 4 Statis-Pro Debut in Nationals Park and Coors Field

On July 4, we decided a game in the Nations Capitol - at National Park with the Miami Marlins visiting. Because the Nats are one of our four "relegated" teams from our NL Statis-Pro league this season, we used this opportunity to updated and print out their cards.

In our league the 11 regular teams play each of the other 10 teams in a home-and-home, and then each team plays two of the four relegated teams. We had already printed out and played games against St. Louis and Pittsburgh, so that left the Nats and the Colorado Rockies to be printed and use for the first time.

To walk through the process for pulling up teams for use in the Statis-Pro game, you start by opening the google docs of both the 2023 projected batters and 2023 projected pitchers. You can use the cards as projected for a "what-if" league, but we use this roster sheet to double check the rosters.

If the player is on that sheet in black font, we just check that the card can be used. If in GREEN, it means he is having a much better year than projected we add a +++ to the card which gives him an advantage on the PB. If red, then a --- means their PB is adjusted one against them. If a player with a "new" by them then we created a new card. Batters have a home run range to build the card around along with their position, speed, position and if they bat or pitch left-handed or switch hit, otherwise assume right-handed.

The fun thing about adding the Rockies for a couple of series is of course we get games in Coors Field where a DEEP drive results in an 11-77 as a home run. This is the best batters park, and much better than the average 11-35. Because Colorado is such a batters park, note that their pitchers do have an adjustment by which the highest home run on an opponents card is changed to a deep fly out caught for a sac fly.

The following are the lists of ballpark home run ranges followed by printed player cards for both teams.

Colorado Batters

Charlie Blackmon (Bat: L)

Kris Bryant

Harold Castro (Bat: L)

Nolan Jones (Bat: L)

Ryan McMahon (Bat: L)

Elehuris Montero

Mike Moustakas (Bat: L)

Jurickson Profar (Bat: S)

Brian Serven

Michael Toglia (Bat: S)

Washington Batters

Erasmo Ramírez

Colorado Pitchers

Harold Castro

Alan Trejo

José Ureña

Washington Pitchers

Cory Abbott

Anthony Banda*

Patrick Corbin*

Carl Edwards Jr.

Kyle Finnegan

MacKenzie Gore*

Josiah Gray

Hobie Harris

Hunter Harvey

Jake Irvin

Chad Kuhl

Andrés Machado

Erasmo Ramírez

Lane Thomas

Mason Thompson

Thaddeus Ward

Jordan Weems

Trevor Williams

Monday, July 3, 2023

Statis-Pro - Giants Beat Mets as we play Marlins Catch-up Games

Like in the real game, the Statis-Pro New York Mets continued to struggle and the San Francisco Giants continued to be a surprise. As the box score shows below, Max Scherzer did his job in the opener with 7 innings and 1 earned run allowed for a 4-2 win. However, in Game 2, Carlos Carrasco was shelled for 6 runs in the opening two innings and the Giants made it hold up for a 6-1 win that counts as a 3-game sweep for a 4-2 series win.

The first three batters in the Giants line-up, Thairo Estrada, Casey Schmitt and LaMonte Wade Jr. all scored twice in those first two innings for the win. The big blow was Wade's 3-run homer in the first inning. As noted in the box score, both teams had two DEEP drives in the game but neither made it out of the park. The game tracker for our season shows the ballpark home run factor in each game, with Mets home games having only an 11-13 homer and 14-88 deep flyout, while the Giants park gives homers on 11-33, just below the 11-35 average.

The Giants and Marlins were added during the season so are still catching up in games played, but both would be in our Statis-Pro playoffs based on winning percentage so far.

Below is the box score for the two games between the Giants and Mets, followed by the standings and remaining games to get every team up to eight series.

Game 1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
SF Giants	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	6	1
NY Mets (Win)	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	x	4	9	1

Game 2	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
NY Mets	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	1
SF Giants (Sweep)	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	6	12	0

Pos	Mets 2-game total	AB	R	H	RBI	Notes
RF	Starling Marte	8	2	3	2	3b, HR
1B	Pete Alonso	8	1	0	0	deep fly 8th
2B	Jeff McNeil	3	0	2	0	deep fly
CF	Brandon Nimmo	8	0	0	0
DH	Daniel Vogelbach	4	1	2	1	HR, rest Gm 2 vs LHP
SS	Francisco Lindor	7	0	3	0	2b
LF	Mark Canha	6	0	0	0	HPB, BB
C	Francisco Álvarez	8	0	1	0
3B	Eduardo Escobar	6	1	2	0	2B
DH	Tommy Pham	1	0	0	0	BB 2x, rest Gm 1
	Mets Totals	59	5	13	3	Batting Ave .220

Pos	Giants 2-game total	AB	R	H	RBI	Notes
2B	Thairo Estrada	8	2	4	0	2b
3B	Casey Schmitt	8	3	4	2	2B,SF
1B	LaMonte Wade Jr.	7	2	3	3	3-run HR
LF	Joc Pederson	8	0	2	1
3B	J.D. Davis	8	0	2	0
CF	Mike Yastrzemski	7	0	0	0
RF	Michael Conforto	8	0	1	0	deep fly
C	Blake Sabol	7	1	1	0	deep fly
SS	Donovan Walton	7	0	1	0
	Giants Totals	68	8	18	6	Batting Ave .265

Game 1 Giants	IP	H	R	ER	W	K	Notes
Alex Cobb	5	7	4	2	1	4	Loss
Cole Waites	2	1	0	0	0	3
Scott Alexander	1	1	0	0	0	3

Game 2 Giants	IP	H	R	ER	W	K	Notes
Alex Wood	5	3	1	1	3	8	Win
Sean Hjelle	2	1	0	0	1	0
Camilo Doval	1	0	0	0	0	1
Taylor Rogers	1	0	0	0	0	1

Game 1 Mets	IP	H	R	ER	W	K	Notes
Max Scherzer	7	6	2	1	0	5	Win
David Robertson	1	0	0	0	1	3	Hold
Tylor Megill	1	0	0	0	0	0	Save

Game 2 Mets	IP	H	R	ER	W	K	Notes
Carlos Carrasco	1.3	8	6	6	1	0	Loss
Joey Lucchesi	2.7	1	0	0	0	4
Jeff Brigham	1	0	0	0	1	0
Drew Smith	1	2	0	0	0	1
Brooks Raley	1	0	0	0	0	1
Adam Ottavino	1	1	0	0	0	1

Getting each team to 8 series (16 games for 48 "games)

1. Miami 9-3 - play Atl, Cin, NYM, Phil, SF & releagated Col

2. LA Dodgers 28-14 - play SF

3. Milwaukee 27-15 - play SF

4. San Fran 13-11 - play LA, Mil, Mia, SD

5. Atlanta 22-20 – play Mia

6. Arizona 20-22 – play ChC

Playoff Cut off

7. Chicago Cubs 20-22 – play Arz

8. NY Mets 20-22 - play Mia

9. Cincinnati 18-24 - play Mia

10. Philadelphia 17-25 - play Mia

11. San Diego 16-26 - play SF

Relegated Col, Pitt, StL, Wash

Click for the free Statis-Pro Master Baseball Game. Click here for 60 of the all-time great MLB teams, or on teams of many of the all-time great players on teams by nation or state with one sheet for each team. Or click on the 2023 pitchers and 2023 batters in card form. You simply print two teams cards and then either print theaster link above and fast action cards in master link or buy the dice to start playing.

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Reds Phenom De La Cruz Statis-Pro Card Debut in stunning beat down of Giants

The story of recent weeks, Elly De La Cruz of the Reds, debuts in our Statis-Pro game. So far he is destroying right-handed pitching and struggling against left-handed pitching, thus the 14/86 indicates in the first game against the Giants RHP Logan Webb he converts 86-88 into singles with runners advancing two bases. in the second game against LHP Sean Manaea an 11-14 is converted to a strikeout.

Compared to the vet on the team, Joey Votto, he does strike out a ton (38-66) and does not walk much (67-68) but other than that you couldn't get much better than him on speed (A/A), fielding (next to best CD4 at both shortstop and third base) and as a switch hit power hitter (SP) he gets a hit or at least a deep drive that usually goes out in hitter friendly Cincinnati on 11-37. In Cincinnati an 11-63 is a homer on a deep drive, but for the second game in San Francisco only a 11-33 will go out.

Results follow below.

As exciting as using De La Cruz's cards was, and fun as it was to have him go 4 of 10 with a homer in his first 2-game series, there was no way to anticipate the absolute beat down they would give the Giants in his first two game series. As we show on our game tracker, the Reds were 7-23 in our season, before a 6 game to 0 sweep of the Phillies and now this 5 game to 1 win over the Giants to improve to 18-24 in our league. The 7-1 win in the opener counted as a 3 games to 0 sweep due to leading by more than 5 runs after 8 innings, however the 10-3 win did not because they needed to score four runs in the ninth so only led 6-3 after 8 innings.

The Giants meanwhile dropped from 8-4 and a tie in first place to 9-9 and tied for 4th place with the Mets, who coincidentally are their next series on the grid.