Misiorowski and Coors Field Recalculations post Statis-Pro Season

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While we will soon be moving to Value Add Basketball to get the great women’s teams on the court, we did catch a couple of things in our postmortem on the Statis-Pro baseball season.

More Accurate Pitcher Cards

We finally have truly accurate ranges for determining the results on pitchers’ cards.

We noted during the season that one reason the Brewers were not as good in the game as they were in the actual season was that Jacob Misiorowski was very good but also walked a lot of batters. The card shown is what his card would have looked like based solely on this season’s statistics.

We have now built extremely accurate tables to calculate how many hits, strikeouts and walks should appear on every pitcher’s card.

You still first need to calculate the pitcher’s PB — 2-9, 2-8, etc. — and then divide his hits, strikeouts and walks by his total batters faced and look up each percentage on the appropriate chart.

For example, Misiorowski is a PB 2-9. The MLB average for hits allowed is about 22%, while Misiorowski allowed hits to only 14% of the batters he faced. That gives him just 8 hits on his card, from 11-18.

The average strikeout rate is about 22%, which would put 16 strikeouts on a PB 2-9 card, while Misiorowski struck out an incredible 38% of the batters he faced. That gives him 27 strikeouts on his card.

Finally, the average walk rate is about 9%, which would produce 6 walks on the card, while Misiorowski walked only about 6% of the batters he faced. That gives him just 4 walks on the card.

Once those three numbers are determined for any pitcher, every remaining result among the 64 possible 11-88 readings is an out.

Playing Every Team Helps Us Catch the Glitches

One reason we play every team every year in Statis-Pro is to see if we catch any glitches.

For example, we threw in a game with the 29th-place Rockies hosting the 30th-place Los Angeles Angels because neither team had played during our pods.

What immediately jumped out was the Rockies’ home field. The average DEEP drive was going out for a home run at the same rate as it would in an average ballpark, so Coors Field really wasn’t playing like the extreme hitters’ park that it actually is.

In an average park, a DEEP result is a home run on 11-35, while 36-88 results in a deep fly with runners advancing. But we realized that simply adjusting the home-run range doesn't fully account for ballpark differences. Some parks also produce significantly more singles, doubles or triples.

We have now updated the ballpark charts to build those additional factors into the game.

When you look at the chart below, you will see that Colorado is now the ultimate hitters’ park: every DEEP reading on a card results in a hit of some kind, with the runners always advancing one base farther than the batter.

And here are the charts for calculating pitchers' cards moving forward.

 

Percent	H/BF	BK	K/BF	W/BF
PB 2-9	PB 2-9		PB 2-9	PB 2-9
0%	No hits	11	0	0
1%	No hits	11	0	0
2%	No hits	11	0	1
3%	No hits	11	0	2
4%	No hits	11	1	2
5%	No hits	11	2	3
6%	11'-11	12	2	4
7%	11'-12	13	3	5
8%	11'-13	14	4	5
9%	11'-14	15	5	6
10%	11'-14	15	5	7
11%	11'-15	16	6	8
12%	11'-16	17	7	8
13%	11'-17	18	8	9
14%	11'-18	21	9	10
15%	11'-18	21	10	11
16%	11'-21	22	10	11
17%	11'-22	23	11	12
17%	11'-22	23	12	13
18%	11'-23	24	13	13
19%	11'-24	25	13	13
20%	11'-25	26	14	14
21%	11'-25	26	15	15
22%	11'-26	27	16	15
23%	11'-27	27	16	15
24%	11'-28	31	17	16
25%	11'-31	32	18	16
26%	11'-31	32	19	16
27%	11'-32	33	19	16
28%	11'-33	34	20	16
29%	11'-34	35	21	16
30%	11'-34	35	22	16
31%	11'-34	35	22	16
32%	11'-34	35	23	16
33%	11'-34	35	24	16
34%	11'-34	35	25	16
35%	11'-34	35	25	16
36%	11'-34	35	26	16
37%	11'-34	35	26	16
38%	11'-34	35	27	16
39%	11'-34	35	28	16
40%	11'-34	35	28	16
Percent	H/BF	BK	K/BF	W/BF
PB 2-8	PB 2-8	PB 2-8	PB 2-8	PB 2-8
0%	No hits	11	0	0
1%	No hits	11	0	0
2%	No hits	11	0	0
3%	No hits	11	0	1
4%	No hits	11	0	2
5%	No hits	11	1	3
6%	No hits	11	1	4
7%	11'-11	12	2	5
8%	11'-12	13	3	6
9%	11'-13	14	4	6
10%	11'-13	14	5	7
11%	11'-14	15	6	8
12%	11'-15	16	6	9
13%	11'-16	17	7	10
14%	11'-17	18	8	11
15%	11'-17	18	9	12
16%	11'-18	21	10	12
17%	11'-21	22	11	13
18%	11'-22	23	13	14
19%	11'-23	24	13	14
20%	11'-24	25	14	15
21%	11'-25	26	15	16
22%	11'-26	27	16	16
23%	11'-27	28	17	16
24%	11'-28	31	18	16
25%	11'-31	32	19	16
26%	11'-31	32	20	16
27%	11'-32	33	21	16
28%	11'-33	34	22	16
29%	11'-34	35	23	16
30%	11'-34	35	24	16
31%	11'-34	35	25	16
32%	11'-34	35	26	16
33%	11'-34	35	27	16
34%	11'-34	35	28	16
35%	11'-34	35	28	16
36%	11'-34	35	28	16
37%	11'-34	35	28	16
38%	11'-34	35	28	16
39%	11'-34	35	28	16
40%	11'-34	35	28	16
Percent	H/BF	BK	K/BF	W/BF
PB 2-7	PB 2-7	PB 2-7	PB 2-7	PB 2-7
0%	No hits	11	0	0
1%	No hits	11	0	0
2%	No hits	11	0	0
3%	No hits	11	0	0
4%	No hits	11	0	2
5%	No hits	11	0	3
6%	No hits	11	0	4
7%	No hits	11	1	5
8%	11'-11	12	1	6
9%	11'-12	13	2	7
10%	11'-12	13	3	8
11%	11'-13	14	4	9
12%	11'-14	15	5	10
13%	11'-15	16	6	11
14%	11'-16	17	8	13
15%	11'-16	17	9	14
16%	11'-17	18	10	14
17%	11'-18	21	11	15
18%	11'-21	22	13	16
19%	11'-22	23	14	16
20%	11'-23	24	15	16
21%	11'-24	25	16	16
22%	11'-25	26	17	16
23%	11'-26	27	18	16
24%	11'-27	28	19	16
25%	11'-28	31	21	16
26%	11'-31	32	22	16
27%	11'-33	34	23	16
28%	11'-34	35	24	16
29%	11'-34	35	25	16
30%	11'-34	35	26	16
31%	11'-34	35	27	16
32%	11'-34	35	28	16
33%	11'-34	35	28	16
34%	11'-34	35	28	16
35%	11'-34	35	28	16
36%	11'-34	35	28	16
37%	11'-34	35	28	16
38%	11'-34	35	28	16
39%	11'-34	35	28	16
40%	11'-34	35	28	16
Percent	H/BF	BK	K/BF	W/BF
PB 4-7	PB 4-7	PB 4-7	PB 4-7	PB 4-7
0%	No hits	11	0	0
1%	No hits	11	0	0
2%	No hits	11	0	0
3%	No hits	11	0	0
4%	No hits	11	0	1
5%	No hits	11	0	2
6%	No hits	11	0	4
7%	No hits	11	0	5
8%	No hits	11	0	6
9%	11'-11	12	1	8
10%	11'-11	12	2	9
11%	11'-12	13	3	10
12%	11'-13	14	4	11
13%	11'-14	15	5	13
14%	11'-15	16	7	14
15%	11'-15	16	8	15
16%	11'-16	17	9	15
17%	11'-17	18	10	16
18%	11'-18	21	13	16
19%	11'-21	22	15	16
20%	11'-22	23	16	16
21%	11'-23	24	17	16
22%	11'-24	25	18	16
23%	11'-26	27	20	16
24%	11'-27	28	21	16
25%	11'-28	31	22	16
26%	11'-32	33	23	16
27%	11'-33	34	24	16
28%	11'-34	35	25	16
29%	11'-34	35	26	16
30%	11'-34	35	27	16
31%	11'-34	35	28	16
32%	11'-34	35	28	16
33%	11'-34	35	28	16
34%	11'-34	35	28	16
35%	11'-34	35	28	16
36%	11'-34	35	28	16
37%	11'-34	35	28	16
38%	11'-34	35	28	16
39%	11'-34	35	28	16
40%	11'-34	35	28	16