Tampa Bay was two innings away from clinching Statis-Pro Baseball Pool K and advancing to the three-team Championship Pool. Instead, Milwaukee rallied for a 7-4 win, and now the Rays must root for the Cubs to win at least one of their two remaining games against the Brewers.
If Milwaukee sweeps Chicago, the Brewers win the pool. If the Cubs win either game, Tampa advances. You can see the results of all 9 semifinal pool games, as well as the 55 games in initial pool play that got us from 28 teams to 9 seminfinal teams (those average much more lopsided 5.9 to 2.1 scores.and only 41% of 1st round games - 23 of 55 - being decided by one or two runs, while the majority of semifinal pool games have been decided by one or two runs).
That is quite a turnaround after the Rays dominated the Cubs 10-0 earlier in the day to improve to 3-0. Even after falling behind Milwaukee 5-4 through seven innings, Tampa remained in excellent position. A win or even a one-run loss would have clinched the pool because of the tiebreakers.
But Milwaukee kept adding just enough.
Brewers Stay Alive With 2 Late Runs
With both bullpens depleted from the first Rays-Brewers matchup in Milwaukee, both teams had chances against mediocre pitchers throughout the game.
Brice Turang singled and stole second to start the eighth, and super rookie Luis Lara doubled him home to make it 6-4.
That run was huge. If nobody else had scored, Milwaukee would have remained alive, but barely. The head-to-head run total between Milwaukee and Tampa would have been tied 9-9, moving the tiebreaker to overall run differential. Tampa's massive 10-0 win over Chicago had given the Rays such an advantage that Milwaukee would have needed to sweep the Cubs by a combined margin of at least 11 runs to overtake Tampa.
Then came the decisive top of the ninth.
With one out, Christian Yelich singled and stole second. Sal Frelick then drove a ball to right for the second out, but Yelich's OBR A — the game's best baserunning rating — allowed him to advance to third with two outs.
A scoring note: On our scoresheet, we wrote "S9" on the play, similar to a sacrifice fly, simply to keep track of how Yelich advanced. Officially, however, Frelick does not receive a sacrifice fly because no run scored. He finished 2-for-4, with his other out an RBI grounder to shortstop that scored Jeff Williams in the fifth to give Milwaukee a 3-0 lead.
That left cleanup hitter William Contreras with a chance to drive Yelich home from third.
Contreras hit a grounder to Nick Madrigal, who was starting at second only because Milwaukee had a left-handed starting pitcher. Madrigal is a decent defensive second baseman with an E4 rating, but the play drew an E1-10 — meaning everyone except an elite E0 fielder would commit an error.
We were playing with the original 1978 out charts that came with our game, which required another card to determine whether it was an Error 1, 2 or 3. The result was Error 3.
With a runner on third, Error 3 normally means the batter is safe while the runner holds because the ball is essentially stuck in the fielder's glove. But with two outs, the runner races home — and Yelich did exactly that to make it 7-4.
The timing was funny because it came one day after Brewers rookie Cooper Pratt was lifted for a pinch runner in real MLB play after failing to run out a play and being reminded that the Brewers run everything out.
They have to. If the actual MLB season ended today, Milwaukee would be the first team since the 1959 Chicago White Sox — who won 94 games despite hitting only 97 home runs — to lead MLB in wins while finishing last in home runs. The Brewers currently lead the majors with 82 wins despite ranking last with 120 homers.
Harrison Slams the Door
Kyle Harrison protected the 7-4 lead with a scoreless ninth to complete 2 2/3 scoreless innings, with some help from Milwaukee's always-excellent defense.
Nick Fortes walked to start Tampa's final chance, and pinch runner Taylor Wells entered with instructions to steal second. Even one Rays run would have dramatically improved Tampa's tiebreaker position.
He never got the chance.
Contreras picked Wells off first for the opening out, and Harrison retired the final two hitters to wrap up Milwaukee's 7-4 win.
That leaves the situation very simple:
If the Cubs beat Milwaukee once, Tampa wins Pool K and advances. If Milwaukee sweeps both games from Chicago, the Brewers win Pool K and advance.
Pool K Semifinal Standings and Remaining Games
Cubs Have the Pitching to Play Spoiler
The Rays now have to watch.
Chicago does have two PB 2-7 starters lined up against Milwaukee, while the Brewers counter with one PB 2-7 starter and DL Hall, an average PB 4-7 pitcher.
Hall was one of two pitchers recently added to the game, giving Milwaukee two PB 4-7 pitchers at the back of its rotation instead of the two PB 2-6 pitchers who previously would have been its third and fourth starters.
Milwaukee does hold a slight bullpen advantage, with four PB 2-8 relievers compared with three for Chicago.
For anyone unfamiliar with Statis-Pro Baseball, the pitcher's PB rating is one of the keys to the game. It determines how often the action remains on the pitcher's card rather than moving to the hitter's card.
A dominant PB 2-9 pitcher keeps the action on his card on 30 of the 36 possible combinations of two traditional six-sided dice. Only a 10-12 roll — about 17% of the time — sends the action to the hitter's card, where extra-base hits become possible.
A strong PB 2-8 pitcher allows the hitter's card about 28% of the time. A PB 2-7 starter allows it about 42%, while a mediocre PB 4-7 pitcher gives the hitter his card on exactly half the rolls.
That makes the two remaining Cubs-Brewers games anything but automatic Milwaukee wins.
Rays Had Been Perfect Before Milwaukee Rally
Earlier in the day, Tampa looked unstoppable.
Once again, we had to ask: How are the Rays this good?
In Statis-Pro, they were even better than their real-life counterparts, pounding Chicago 10-0 behind their new pickup from the Mets, Freddy Peralta.
The Rays exploded for eight runs in the first inning, and Peralta followed with six scoreless innings as Tampa cruised to the shutout and improved to 3-0 in Pool K.
That put the Rays one victory away from clinching the second spot in the three-team Championship Pool, where the Dodgers are already waiting.
Instead, Milwaukee's 7-4 win changed everything.
Tampa has completed its schedule at 3-1. Milwaukee is 1-1 with two games left. Chicago is 0-2.
Now the equation couldn't be easier: Tampa needs one Cubs win. Milwaukee needs two.
