Tampa Wins Big, Arizona pulls upset

 

We actually pasted the wrong table yesterday, so the correct results by pool are below with two games from last night. Tampa took a commanding lead in their pool with an 8-2 win over the Astros to follow their earlier 3-0 win over the Reds. They now play the Reds next which could clinch them in the 4-game pool play since a win would make them 3-0 and the Reds 1-2 and Astros 0-2. Likewise the surprising Dbacks play the Tigers after a 4-3 win against them following a 1-0 win over the Guardians.

Pod A	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
ATH	2'-5	Jacob Lopez	LAD	5	16	L	4.35
ATH	2'-6	Jack Perkins	LAD				4.25
ATH	2'-5	Gage Jump	Was				4.42
ATH	2'-6	Mason Barnett	Was				4.45
LAD	2'-8	Tyler Glasnow	Ath				3.61
LAD	2'-9	Shohei Ohtani	Ath	16	5	W	3.46
LAD	2'-8	Blake Snell	Was				3.54
LAD	2'-8	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Was	4	0	W	3.45
WSN	2'-5	Zack Littell	Ath				4.56
WSN	4'-7	Cade Cavalli	Ath				3.99
WSN	4'-7	Foster Griffin	LAD	0	4	L	3.93
WSN	2'-5	Andrew Alvarez	LAD				4.18
Pod B	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
ATL	2'-9	Chris Sale	Bos	1	8	L	3.19
ATL	2'-7	Reynaldo López	Bos				4.06
ATL	2'-7	Spencer Strider	Tex				3.82
ATL	2'-8	Spencer Schwellenbach	Tex	4	2	W	3.65
BOS	2'-7	Ranger Suarez	Atl				3.74
BOS	2'-8	Garrett Crochet	Atl	8	1	W	3.02
BOS	2'-7	Connelly Early	Tex				3.65
BOS	2'-8	Sonny Gray	Tex				3.69
TEX	2'-8	Nathan Eovaldi	Atl	2	4	L	3.65
TEX	2'-6	Jordan Montgomery	Atl				4.28
TEX	2'-7	MacKenzie Gore	Bos				3.82
TEX	4'-7	Kumar Rocker	Bos				4.23
Pod C	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
MIA	2'-7	Braxton Garrett	NYM				3.84
MIA	4'-7	Sandy Alcantara	NYM				4.16
MIA	4'-7	Max Meyer	NYY				4.05
MIA	2'-7	Eury Pérez	NYY	1	0	W	4
NYM	2'-7	Nolan McLean	Mia				3.71
NYM	2'-7	Freddy Peralta	Mia				3.8
NYM	4'-7	Sean Manaea	NYY				3.82
NYM	2'-8	Jonah Tong	NYY	6	3	W	3.41
NYY	2'-8	Gerrit Cole	Mia	0	1	L	3.94
NYY	4'-7	Carlos Rodón	Mia				3.96
NYY	2'-8	Max Fried	NYM	3	6	L	3.28
NYY	2'-9	Cam Schlittler	NYM				4.01
Pod D	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
CIN	2'-6	Brady Singer	Hou				4.37
CIN	2'-9	Chase Burns	Hou	4	0	W	3.71
CIN	2'-7	Hunter Greene	TBR	0	3	L	3.91
CIN	4'-7	Nick Lodolo	TBR				4.03
HOU	2'-8	Hunter Brown	Cin	0	3	L	3.63
HOU	2'-6	AJ Blubaugh	Cin				4.4
HOU	2'-6	Mike Burrows	TBR	2	8	L	4.24
HOU	2'-6	Tatsuya Imai	TBR				4.37
TBR	2'-8	Drew Rasmussen	Hou	8	2	W	3.72
TBR	4'-7	Joe Boyle	Cin				3.92
TBR	4'-7	Ryan Pepiot	Hou				4.02
TBR	2'-8	Shane McClanahan	Cin	3	0	W	3.35
Pod E	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
MIL	2'-6	Kyle Harrison	SFG				4.22
MIL	2'-7	Brandon Woodruff	SFG	2	0	W	3.86
MIL	2'-9	Jacob Misiorowski	Tor	2	9	L	4.11
MIL	2'-6	Logan Henderson	Tor				4.17
SFG	4'-7	Landen Roupp	Mil	0	1	L	4.09
SFG	4'-7	Robbie Ray	Mil				4.2
SFG	4'-7	Tyler Mahle	Tor				4.17
SFG	2'-8	Logan Webb	Tor	2	0	W	3.32
TOR	2'-7	Kevin Gausman	Mil				3.98
TOR	2'-9	Dylan Cease	Mil	9	2	W	3.54
TOR	2'-7	Shane Bieber	SFG	0	1	L	3.74
TOR	2'-7	Trey Yesavage	SFG				3.72
Pod F	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
CHC	4'-7	David Peterson	KCR				3.65
CHC	2'-7	Edward Cabrera	KCR	2	5	l	3.96
CHC	2'-7	Justin Steele	StL	3	5	L	3.63
CHC	2'-6	Matthew Boyd	StL				3.93
KCR	2'-8	Cole Ragans	Chc	5	2	w	3.31
KCR	2'-5	Michael Wacha	Chc				4.5
KCR	2'-7	Kris Bubic	StL				3.91
KCR	2'-6	Daniel Lynch IV	StL				4.26
STL	2'-6	Gordon Graceffo	Chc				4.35
STL	4'-7	Michael McGreevy	Chc	5	3	W	4.05
STL	2'-6	Dustin May	KCR				4.22
STL	2'-6	Matthew Liberatore	KCR				4.33
Pod G	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
ARI	4'-7	Merrill Kelly	Cle	1	0	w	4.12
ARI	4'-7	Zac Gallen	Cle				4.24
ARI	2'-8	Corbin Burnes	Det	4	3	w	3.84
ARI	4'-7	Brandon Pfaadt	Det				4.31
CLE	2'-9	Parker Messick	Ari	0	1	l	4.08
CLE	4'-7	Tanner Bibee	Ari				4.1
CLE	4'-7	Joey Cantillo	Det	1	12	l	3.95
CLE	4'-7	Gavin Williams	Det				4.09
DET	2'-8	Framber Valdez	Ari	3	4	L	3.43
DET	2'-7	Jack Flaherty	Ari				3.89
DET	2'-8	Tarik Skubal	Cle	12	1	w	2.79
DET	4'-7	Casey Mize	Cle				4.06
Pod H	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
BAL	2'-6	Shane Baz	Phi				4.29
BAL	2'-6	Albert Suárez	SDP				4.3
BAL	2'-8	Kyle Bradish	SDP				3.72
BAL	2'-6	Trevor Rogers	Phi	1	4	L	4.2
PHI	2'-8	Zack Wheeler	Bal	4	1	W	3.2
PHI	2'-7	Jesús Luzardo	Bal				3.57
PHI	2'-9	Cristopher Sánchez	SDP	2	1	W	3.15
PHI	4'-7	Aaron Nola	SDP				3.98
SDP	2'-7	Michael King	Bal	1	2	L	3.8
SDP	4'-7	Joe Musgrove	Bal				3.91
SDP	2'-7	Nick Pivetta	Phi				3.97
SDP	4-'7	Walker Buehler	Phi				4.15
Pod I	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
MIN	2'-9	Joe Ryan	Pit	4	3	w	3.81
MIN	4'-7	Taj Bradley	Pit				4.23
MIN	2'-7	Zebby Matthews	Sea	6	4		4.01
MIN	4-'7	Andrew Morris	Sea				4.2
PIT	2'-9	Paul Skenes	Min	3	4	l	2.92
PIT	4'-7	Mitch Keller	Min				4.35
PIT	2'-7	Jared Jones	Sea				3.83
PIT	4'-7	Braxton Ashcraft	Sea				4.08
SEA	2'-8	George Kirby	Min				3.51
SEA	2'-8	Bryan Woo	Min				3.6
SEA	2'-8	Logan Gilbert	Pit	4	6	l	3.4
SEA	4'-7	Luis Castillo	Pit				3.86

Celebrating 50 Years of Statis-Pro Baseball at Douthat State Park

This marks the 50th anniversary of playing Statis-Pro Baseball while on vacation at Douthat State Park in the mountains of Virginia, where there is still no cell phone or internet connection. While our first year playing Statis-Pro was during a family vacation in 1976, we are using the 1978 board and Fast Action Cards this year (dice can also be used in the free version).

The most exciting action so far has been two thrilling upsets by the Twins, who seemed headed for defeat in both games. Against Seattle, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena delivered back-to-back extra-base hits in the sixth inning to put the Mariners in control, only to collide chasing a fly ball in the eighth. Both were injured on the play, allowing a three-run double as the Twins rallied to improve to 2-0 with a +3 run differential heading into rematches with both the Mariners and Pirates in Pool I.

The only other unbeaten teams are the Phillies in Pool H at 2-0 with a +4 run differential and, by far the most dominant club so far, the Dodgers in Pool A at 2-0 with a remarkable +16 run differential.

Most pools feature a lone 1-0 team in first place, but Pool E has a three-way tie, with the Blue Jays, Giants, and Brewers all sitting at 1-1. We generally remove players who are out for the season, so Brandon Woodruff would not be eligible to pitch if the Brewers advance to the semifinal pool.

In the first two days of this family reunion/vacation, we played the five teams that had not yet appeared in our tournament using projected 2026 Statis-Pro cards. All 27 MLB teams included in the tournament have now played either one or two games in pool play. In each pool, every team's top four starting pitchers each make one start in home-and-home two-game series against the other two teams, determining the nine clubs that will advance to the three semifinal pools.

The following includes summaries of the games played over the last two days and how each pool now shapes up, followed by the complete table of results and projected pitching matchups.

Pod A	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
ATH	2'-5	Jacob Lopez	LAD	5	16	L	4.35
ATH	2'-6	Jack Perkins	LAD				4.25
ATH	2'-5	Gage Jump	Was				4.42
ATH	2'-6	Mason Barnett	Was				4.45
LAD	2'-8	Tyler Glasnow	Ath				3.61
LAD	2'-9	Shohei Ohtani	Ath	16	5	W	3.46
LAD	2'-8	Blake Snell	Was				3.54
LAD	2'-8	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Was	4	0	W	3.45
WSN	2'-5	Zack Littell	Ath				4.56
WSN	4'-7	Cade Cavalli	Ath				3.99
WSN	4'-7	Foster Griffin	LAD	0	4	L	3.93
WSN	2'-5	Andrew Alvarez	LAD				4.18
Pod B	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
ATL	2'-9	Chris Sale	Bos	1	8	L	3.19
ATL	2'-7	Reynaldo López	Bos				4.06
ATL	2'-7	Spencer Strider	Tex				3.82
ATL	2'-8	Spencer Schwellenbach	Tex	4	2	W	3.65
BOS	2'-7	Ranger Suarez	Atl				3.74
BOS	2'-8	Garrett Crochet	Atl	8	1	W	3.02
BOS	2'-7	Connelly Early	Tex				3.65
BOS	2'-8	Sonny Gray	Tex				3.69
TEX	2'-8	Nathan Eovaldi	Atl	2	4	L	3.65
TEX	2'-6	Jordan Montgomery	Atl				4.28
TEX	2'-7	MacKenzie Gore	Bos				3.82
TEX	4'-7	Kumar Rocker	Bos				4.23
Pod C	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
MIA	2'-7	Braxton Garrett	NYM				3.84
MIA	4'-7	Sandy Alcantara	NYM				4.16
MIA	4'-7	Max Meyer	NYY				4.05
MIA	2'-7	Eury Pérez	NYY	1	0	W	4
NYM	2'-7	Nolan McLean	Mia				3.71
NYM	2'-7	Freddy Peralta	Mia				3.8
NYM	4'-7	Sean Manaea	NYY				3.82
NYM	2'-8	Jonah Tong	NYY	6	3	W	3.41
NYY	2'-8	Gerrit Cole	Mia	0	1	L	3.94
NYY	4'-7	Carlos Rodón	Mia				3.96
NYY	2'-8	Max Fried	NYM	3	6	L	3.28
NYY	2'-9	Cam Schlittler	NYM				4.01
Pod D	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
CIN	2'-6	Brady Singer	Hou				4.37
CIN	2'-9	Chase Burns	Hou	4	0	W	3.71
CIN	2'-7	Hunter Greene	TBR	0	3	L	3.91
CIN	4'-7	Nick Lodolo	TBR				4.03
HOU	2'-8	Hunter Brown	Cin	0	3	L	3.63
HOU	2'-6	AJ Blubaugh	Cin				4.4
HOU	2'-6	Mike Burrows	TBR				4.24
HOU	2'-6	Tatsuya Imai	TBR				4.37
TBR	2'-8	Drew Rasmussen	Cin				3.72
TBR	4'-7	Joe Boyle	Cin				3.92
TBR	4'-7	Ryan Pepiot	Hou				4.02
TBR	2'-8	Shane McClanahan	Hou	3	0	W	3.35
Pod E	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
MIL	2'-6	Kyle Harrison	SFG				4.22
MIL	2'-7	Brandon Woodruff	SFG	2	0	W	3.86
MIL	2'-9	Jacob Misiorowski	Tor	2	9	L	4.11
MIL	2'-6	Logan Henderson	Tor				4.17
SFG	4'-7	Landen Roupp	Mil	0	1	L	4.09
SFG	4'-7	Robbie Ray	Mil				4.2
SFG	4'-7	Tyler Mahle	Tor				4.17
SFG	2'-8	Logan Webb	Tor	2	0	W	3.32
TOR	2'-7	Kevin Gausman	Mil				3.98
TOR	2'-9	Dylan Cease	Mil	9	2	W	3.54
TOR	2'-7	Shane Bieber	SFG	0	1	L	3.74
TOR	2'-7	Trey Yesavage	SFG				3.72
Pod F	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
CHC	4'-7	David Peterson	KCR				3.65
CHC	2'-7	Edward Cabrera	KCR				3.96
CHC	2'-7	Justin Steele	StL	3	5	L	3.63
CHC	2'-6	Matthew Boyd	StL				3.93
KCR	2'-8	Cole Ragans	Chc				3.31
KCR	2'-5	Michael Wacha	Chc				4.5
KCR	2'-7	Kris Bubic	StL				3.91
KCR	2'-6	Daniel Lynch IV	StL				4.26
STL	2'-6	Gordon Graceffo	Chc				4.35
STL	4'-7	Michael McGreevy	Chc	5	3	W	4.05
STL	2'-6	Dustin May	KCR				4.22
STL	2'-6	Matthew Liberatore	KCR				4.33
Pod G	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
ARI	4'-7	Merrill Kelly	Cle				4.12
ARI	4'-7	Zac Gallen	Cle				4.24
ARI	2'-8	Corbin Burnes	Det				3.84
ARI	4'-7	Brandon Pfaadt	Det				4.31
CLE	2'-9	Parker Messick	Ari				4.08
CLE	4'-7	Tanner Bibee	Ari				4.1
CLE	4'-7	Joey Cantillo	Det				3.95
CLE	4'-7	Gavin Williams	Det				4.09
DET	2'-8	Framber Valdez	Ari				3.43
DET	2'-7	Jack Flaherty	Ari				3.89
DET	2'-8	Tarik Skubal	Cle				2.79
DET	4'-7	Casey Mize	Cle				4.06
Pod H	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
BAL	2'-6	Shane Baz	Phi				4.29
BAL	2'-6	Albert Suárez	SDP				4.3
BAL	2'-8	Kyle Bradish	SDP				3.72
BAL	2'-6	Trevor Rogers	Phi	1	4	L	4.2
PHI	2'-8	Zack Wheeler	Bal	4	1	W	3.2
PHI	2'-7	Jesús Luzardo	Bal				3.57
PHI	2'-9	Cristopher Sánchez	SDP	2	1	W	3.15
PHI	4'-7	Aaron Nola	SDP				3.98
SDP	2'-7	Michael King	Bal	1	2	L	3.8
SDP	4'-7	Joe Musgrove	Bal				3.91
SDP	2'-7	Nick Pivetta	Phi				3.97
SDP	4-'7	Walker Buehler	Phi				4.15
Pod I	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
MIN	2'-9	Joe Ryan	Pit				3.81
MIN	4'-7	Taj Bradley	Pit				4.23
MIN	2'-7	Zebby Matthews	Sea				4.01
MIN	4-'7	Andrew Morris	Sea				4.2
PIT	2'-9	Paul Skenes	Min				2.92
PIT	4'-7	Mitch Keller	Min				4.35
PIT	2'-7	Jared Jones	Sea				3.83
PIT	4'-7	Braxton Ashcraft	Sea				4.08
SEA	2'-8	George Kirby	Min				3.51
SEA	2'-8	Bryan Woo	Min				3.6
SEA	2'-8	Logan Gilbert	Pit				3.4
SEA	4'-7	Luis Castillo	Pit				3.86

Statis-Pro Predictor? Red Sox Crushing Braves Seemed Strange June 7 but ...

The biggest shocker in our Statis-Pro Baseball pool play so far came in our early June game when the Boston Red Sox—who, in real life, were beginning a four-game losing streak that dropped them to 27-39—stunned the Atlanta Braves, who were 45-21 at the time.

Statistically, an upset between teams with those records would be expected about once in every four-game series. When it happens, though, it makes you wonder whether the calculations on the cards are off—or whether it was simply a great day for the underdog.

The amazing thing is that since then, the real season has played out much like our Statis-Pro cards. The Red Sox have gone 22-9, while the Braves have gone 11-20. All that being side, Chris Sales' card projects to have an outstanding 3.19 ERA or FIPS, and in fact he is even better this year hovering around a 2.00 ERA so it is true even his card is not truly as great as he is.

The Braves did rally in their second pool game for a 4-2 win over the Rangers. With the Red Sox and Braves two of only four teams with four strong starting pitchers (all rated PB 2-7 or better), and with the Braves added benefit of having preserved their bullpen in the 8-1 loss to Boston, they still have a strong chance to emerge from the pool.

The other two teams are the Blue Jays and then the ridiculous Dodgers, with all four pitchers at least a PB 2-8 to make them seem unbeatable at times.

The second Red Sox-Braves matchup should determine which team advances, featuring an outstanding pitching duel between PB 2-7 starters Reynaldo López for the Braves and Ranger Suárez for the Red Sox.

If the Braves win that game and both teams finish 3-1 while the Rangers end up 0-4, the tiebreaker would come down to run differential. In that scenario, Atlanta would likely need to take full advantage of its final pitching matchup against Texas, with PB 2-7 Spencer Strider facing the Rangers' below-average (PB 2'-6) Jordan Montgomery. The Red Sox currently sit at +7 in run differential thanks to their 8-1 victory, while the Braves are at -5 through two games.

For those who do not play the Statis-Pro baseball game you should start with this free version, but the pitcher's PB is the key that makes us love the game more than any others. This is the range where the pitcher controls the action without allowing that chance for anything more than a single. A PB 2-9 is the best -an All-Star - and on a two-sided dice roll of 2-9 he controls the action, while 10-12 rolls put the action on the batters card. The other strong pitchers are 2-8 or 2-7, while the middle 30% of all pitchers control the action on PB 4-7, then the below average pitchers are 2-6, 2-5 or the weakest 2-4.

Here is a look at the batter and pitcher cards for both teams.

Here is the pool schedule.

Pod B	PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
ATL	2'-9	Chris Sale	Bos	1	8	L	3.19
ATL	2'-7	Reynaldo López	Bos				4.06
ATL	2'-7	Spencer Strider	Tex				3.82
ATL	2'-8	Spencer Schwellenbach	Tex	4	2	W	3.65
BOS	2'-7	Ranger Suarez	Atl				3.74
BOS	2'-8	Garrett Crochet	Atl	8	1	W	3.02
BOS	2'-7	Connelly Early	Tex				3.65
BOS	2'-8	Sonny Gray	Tex				3.69
TEX	2'-8	Nathan Eovaldi	Atl	2	4	L	3.65
TEX	2'-6	Jordan Montgomery	Atl				4.28
TEX	2'-7	MacKenzie Gore	Bos				3.82
TEX	4'-7	Kumar Rocker	Bos				4.23

Sanchez Leads Statis-Pro Phillies vs. Padres After Rough All-Star Game

The Phillies opened our Group I play with a 2-1 win in 10 innings with the most unlikely hero - their 3rd catcher of the game. After that Zack Wheeler allowed only 1 unearned run in 7 innings while striking out 11 with no walks for a 4-1 win over the Orioles to take a commanding lead in Group H with a 2-0 record and two games to play. 

Here is the tracker of all games played to date.

The Phillies had pinchrun for JT Realmuto (no longer the basestealing catcher) in the sixth and then for backup catcher Rafael Marchan in the 8th. Pinchrunners Johan Rojas and Dylan Moore both did their job by stealing bases but the Phillies could not get them home - leaving them with a 1-1 tie after 9 innings and their 3rd string catcher Garrett Stubbs whose card had the lowest projected OPS on the team at 0.603.

While All-star starter Cristopher Sanchez went 7 2-3rds innings the Padres had to use their top 5 relievers so will have a big disadvantage in the second game. They also lost 1st baseman Jake Cronenworth to injury for the second game of their series.

After all that Stubbs singled in the game winning run with two outs in the 10th.

Here was the preview before the game.

Cristopher Sánchez takes the mound in Statis-Pro after being dominant all season in real MLB play to earn his PB 2-9 card - but after he was shocked in the All-Start game by allowing 3 hits, 2 walks and 3 runs to take the loss in what was then a pitching duel the rest of the way. He will go up against the San Diego Padres, who had a bit of a disappointing first half. At the outset of the season the Padres were projected to have the 12th beat record of 30 teams to finish about 85-77, but at the All-Star break their projection has dropped to 79-83 for the season which makes them only 18th of 30 teams.

The Phillies continue to be projected to be one of the top four teams in baseball, after hosting the All-Star game tonight. Here is Sanchez great card going up against a Padres line-up below that is excellent and only has one left-hander so might have a chance against the lefty Sanchez. This opens Group H pla with Baltimore waiting as the third team.

The results will be posted below: