New Runner Advance Chart & Team Cards for Min vs. Sea vs. Pit Pool

Seattle 6, Minnesota 3 - the exciting Pool I play continued as Cal Raleigh's 3-run game winning homer gave inproved the defending AL champs to 1-1 and within half a game of the 2-1 Twins, who will now play their final game vs Pittsburgh.

Preview

bove we show the new chart we've subbed into the Free Statis-Pro game to use when a runner wants to take an extra base on a double or single. The big change is that I was noticing how often players seem to be going home from second on singles, and the recent stats bear it out—it happens most of the time.

As for the last Pool Play remaining, below are the key Statis-Pro card items for the three lineups, pitching rotations and top five relievers for the three teams in Pool I. Below that is a picture of all the cards for each team, and then the scoresheets from the first two games in pool play, back when the Minnesota Twins won great back-and-forth, close games over the aces for both the Mariners and the Pirates to start 2-0.

We will play the rematches of both games, with the Twins hosting Seattle and throwing a new card—Kendry Rojas, who is having a good year but, as a lefty against a Mariners lineup that has no lefty batters, may need a bit of bullpen help. However, because the Mariners threw their ace in the game at home against Minnesota, they have their only non-PB 2-8 pitcher in PB 2-6 Bryce Miller, so that makes the Twins a slight favorite to go to 3-0.

If the Twins win that, then they can clinch in a matchup of average (PB 4-7) starters, as they throw Taj Bradley against the Pirates' Braxton Ashcraft, who can only go five innings. If the Twins win both to go to 4-0, then they advance, but if not, the Mariners and Pirates will need to play at least once and perhaps twice to see who advances.

Because this Pool I ended up with by far the lowest overall strength of schedule (none of the three teams have winning records in real MLB play, and none are among the top 18 teams, while the other eight pools all had at least one team in the top nine of the Power Rankings), the winner of this pool still needs to go into the Wild Card Pool against the second-best team in the best pool—the Braves, who lost on the tiebreaker to the Red Sox. The Wild Card Pool has already started, with the Braves hammering the third team—the Chicago White Sox, who have stunned the baseball world by going from a Power Ranking of 28th (thus one of three teams not assigned a pool) to 11th (to deserve a shot).

The winner of Pool I joins the White Sox and Braves to try to make the semifinals.

     

Pos	Minnesota Line-up	Bats	Home Run!	SP	OPS	Notes for Pool I
2b	Luke Keaschall	RN	31 to 32	A	0.750
CF	Byron Buxton	RP	23 to 28	B	0.802
RF	Matt Wallner	LP	21 to 25	C	0.777
3b	Royce Lewis	RP	26 to 31	B	0.757
C	Ryan Jeffers	RN	26 to 28	D	0.746
LF	Trevor Larnach	LN	26 to 28	D	0.745
DH	Alan Roden	LN	27 to 28	D	0.727
1b	Kody Clemens	LP	24 to 27	D	0.716
SS	Brooks Lee	RN	27 to 31	D	0.711
PB-	Min Rotation	Th	Strikeout!	Max IP	ERA	Notes for Pool I
2'-9	Joe Ryan	Right	24 to 54	7	3.81	already pitched, beat Pitt
2'-7	Zebby Matthews	Right	27 to 46	5	4.01	already pitched, beat Sea
4'-7	Kendry Rojas	Left	25 to 44	5	3.96	NEW, will start vs. Sea
4'-7	Taj Bradley	Right	26 to 45	6	4.23	will start vs. Pitt Gm 2
PB-	Min Top Relievers	Th	Strikeout	Max IP	ERA	Notes for Pool I
2'-8	AJ Minter	Left	22 to 52	2	3.3
2'-8	Jeff Hoffman	Right	21 to 56	2	3.4
2'-7	Cole Sands	Right	25 to 46	2	3.92	out both games
2'-7	David Festa	Right	25 to 46	3	3.92	out v Seattle
2'-7	Tommy Nance	Right	26 to 44	2	3.76	new card
Pos	Pittsburgh Line-up	Bats	Home Run!	SP	OPS	Notes for Pool I
DH	Marcell Ozuna	RP	24 to 27	D	0.775
1b	Spencer Horwitz	LN	28 to 31	D	0.775
rf	Ryan O'Hearn	LN	31 to 33	D	0.766
CF	Oneil Cruz	SP	23 to 26	A	0.763
2b	Brandon Lowe	RP	24 to 28	D	0.754
LF	Johnathan Rodríguez	RN	27 to 31	E	0.73
C	Endy Rodríguez	SN	26 to 28	D	0.704
3b	Jared Triolo	RN	27 to 27	B	0.688
SS	Konnor Griffin	RN	31 to 32	A	0.713
PB-	Rotation	Th	Strikeout!	Max IP	ERA	Notes for Pool I
2'-9	Paul Skenes	Right	22 to 53	8	2.92	Lost to Minnesota
2'-7	Jared Jones	Right	24 to 51	6	3.83
4'-7	Mitch Keller	Right	27 to 44	7	4.35
4'-7	Braxton Ashcraft	Right	27 to 44	5	4.08	will pitch vs Minn
PB-	Top 5 Relievers	Th	Strikeout	Max IP	ERA	Notes for Pool I
2'-8	Camilo Doval	Right	21 to 52	2	3.41	acquired from NYY
2'-8	Gregory Soto	Left	23 to 47	2	3.57	out vs Minnesota
2'-8	Kirby Yates		27 to 45	1	3.4	acquired from LAD
2'-7	Luke Weaver	Right	23 to 48	2	3.69
2'-7	Evan Sisk		25 to 44	2	3.81	new card
Pos	Seattle Line-up	Bats	Home Run!	SP	OPS	Notes for Pool I
CF	Julio Rodríguez	RP	28 to 34	A	0.825
LF	Randy Arozarena	RN	24 to 28	A	0.812
1b	Josh Naylor	RP	28 to 33	B	0.78
C	Cal Raleigh	SP	17 to 24	C	0.778
RF	Taylor Ward	RP	24 to 27	D	0.765
DH	Rob Refsnyder	RN	25 to 27	D	0.726
3B	Weston Wilson	SN	27 to 31	C	0.725
SS	JP Crawford	SN	26 to 27	D	0.697
2b	Cole Young	RN	27 to 27	C	0.697
PB-	Rotation	Th	Strikeout!	Max IP	ERA	Notes for Pool I
2'-8	Logan Gilbert	Right	23 to 51	7	3.4	Lost to Minn
2'-8	George Kirby	Right	25 to 47	7	3.51
2'-8	Bryan Woo	Right	25 to 47	8	3.6
2'-6	Bryce Miller	Right	26 to 44	7	4.2	start vs Minn Gm 2
PB-	Top 5 Relievers	Th	Strikeout	Max IP	ERA	Notes for Pool I
2'-8	Andrés Muñoz	Right	21 to 52	2	2.93
2'-8	Matt Brash	Right	22 to 51	2	3.05
2'-8	Gabe Speier	Left	22 to 53	2	3.21	out vs Min
2'-8	Jose A Ferrer	Left	25 to 47	2	3.11	out vs Min
2'-7	Eduard Bazardo	Right	23 to 46	2	3.71

set up

Statis-Pro Pool Tournament Huge Success: 8 of 9 Pool Champs Head to Semifinal Pool

 

We could not be more thrilled with our big experiment for this year's Statis-Pro season. You can play for free here.

Our Montana commissioner could not play off one league for the first time in years, and my schedule was very difficult this year as well. I didn't want to just play one league, but I also didn't want to simply play a single-game elimination tournament, since pitching rotation is everything in baseball.

Since the 1970s, I have always used a four-man rotation for each team and two-game home-and-home series. That way, each team can either throw its ace and fourth-best starter or its second- and third-best starters. Each reliever can pitch in only one of the two games in a home-and-home.

Everything symmetrical. Everything fair.

Now I just had to decide how much of an abbreviated season I had time for and how to organize it.

The Nine-Pool Experiment

The brainstorm reflected in the image could not have worked any better.

To let every team go through its four-man rotation in pool play and have a fair chance, I looked at power ratings and tried to balance nine pools to make them all about equally difficult.

The math worked perfectly. With one winner from each of nine three-team pools, nine of the 27 teams would advance. Those nine teams could then be divided into three new pools of three teams each. Once again, every team would go through its four-man rotation, this time in the semifinals.

Finally, the three semifinal pool winners would advance to a three-team championship pool, where all three would go through their four-man rotations one more time to determine the champion.

I went with run differential as the tiebreaker, and the format could not have been more fun or played out better.

Seven Pools Worked Almost Perfectly

As I wrapped up pool play after several months, I looked at ESPN's new Week 20 MLB Power Rankings and was thrilled to see how well the original pools had held up.

Seven of the nine pools ended up being very fair. The average power ranking of the three teams in those pools ranged from 13.0 to 16.7 in actual MLB play. In other words, teams in those seven pools advanced with about the same degree of difficulty.

No changes needed. We have seven of the nine champions in place with no exceptions needed to our four-game, three-team pools.

Pool	Avg. Power Rank	Champion	Original Favorite
A	16.0	LAD	LAD
B	8.7	BOS	ATL
C	14.7	NYM	NYY
D	13.0	TBR	TBR
E	16.7	MIL	MIL
F	16.3	CHC	CHC
G	13.0	ARI	ARI
H	13.3	PHI	PHI
I	20.0	TBD	MIN

Only two pools turned out not to be fair because of surprises in actual MLB play. One was unfairly difficult. The other was unfairly easy.

Boston Survives the "Group of Death"

The Boston Red Sox were not supposed to be this good, but they are now ranked No. 7 out of 30 teams. That meant Pool B turned out to be WAY too tough.

With the Rangers also in the top half of MLB and the Braves ranked No. 4 in ESPN's Power Rankings, the average team in Pool B ranked 8.7—more than four spots better than any other pool.

The Red Sox went on to win this incredibly difficult pool, going 2-2 just like the Braves and Rangers but winning the run-differential tiebreaker to advance.

They earned their semifinal spot more than any other team in the tournament.

The team that got the raw deal was Atlanta. In essence, two No. 1 seeds ended up stuck in the same pool, so it seemed fair to consider some kind of "wild card" opportunity for the Braves.

Then it became clear that another team deserved an opportunity as well.

The White Sox Deserve Their First Chance

Because the format required exactly 27 teams, I left out what I believed would be the three worst teams in baseball. We often leave a few teams out of our seasons simply for time management.

I got two of them right. The Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies turned out to be the bottom two teams in ESPN's rankings at No. 29 and No. 30.

But I sure missed on the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox have been shockingly good. Even after fading a little, they are still ranked No. 11 out of 30 teams. Clearly, if the Braves deserve a second chance, the White Sox deserve a first chance.

Besides, I just want to see these Statis-Pro cards that have turned out to be so much better than we all thought!

And Then There Was Pool I...

On the flip side, one of the nine pools turned out to be MUCH weaker than the others.

Pool I has Seattle, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Seattle has badly underperformed expectations, and the average ESPN ranking of the three teams is now No. 20—more than three spots worse than any other pool.

That means a team could win Pool I without beating any of the top 18 teams in Major League Baseball.

The Minnesota Twins have the edge going into a game tonight, but all three teams are still alive.

So here is the solution.

The winner of Seattle-Pittsburgh-Minnesota will still advance. But instead of automatically receiving the final semifinal spot, that team will enter a whole new three-team pool with the White Sox and Braves.

That lets the Pool I winner keep playing, but makes them prove themselves against two tougher teams—including Atlanta, which would essentially have been a No. 1 seed if we had somehow managed to put the nine eventual top teams into nine different original pools.

So we'll leave that last spot open to see who joins Arizona and Philadelphia in that semifinal pool.

The Other Semifinals

Another semifinal pool was chalk: the Rays, Brewers and Cubs were favored and all won their pools.

But only Tampa Bay had it easy.

The Brewers survived a three-way tie, while the Cubs were actually in last place at 0-2 before pulling off a miracle late rally to advance.

The third semifinal pool has two more expected winners in the Dodgers, who dominated, and the aforementioned Red Sox, who fought their way through the toughest pool of all.

But that pool also features the one BIG surprise of the season.

The No. 6 New York Yankees suffered the ultimate humiliation: losing not only to a solid Marlins team, but also to their crosstown rival New York Mets.

The Mets stunned everyone by reaching the semifinal pool despite sitting at just No. 25 in ESPN's Power Rankings.

That's Baseball

Baseball is very unpredictable, so perhaps the biggest surprise is that we really had only one BIG upset among the eight teams that have advanced so far.

The Yankees are the big disappointment.

The Mets are the big surprise.

And now we settle the final spot among the Mariners, Pirates, Twins, White Sox and Braves.

This has been a great experiment that worked better than I could have hoped and puts another Statis-Pro season in the books—a game my friend and fellow commissioner and I started playing 45 years ago.

Sale, 2nd Chance Braves Beat Castillo 9-2

And the new pool starts with a bang as the Braves greet Castillo with 3 first inning runs and won 9-2. Chris Sale allowed only 5 baserunners in 7 innings, though two were solo homers.

Either the Twins, Pirates or Mariners will join the ChiSox and Braves as the 3rd team in the pool trying to grab the 9th and final spot in the semifinals.

We also update the runners advancing on hits chart in the game based on modern percentages.

Arizona Wins Pool G With 7-run 8th Inning Vs. Tigers

 The Arizona DBacks were down 2-1 going into the bottom of the 8th, in danger of dropping into a two wins and one loss with the Tigers and likely elimination if the lost.

If it had stayed that way the Tigers would have had a +11 run dofferential to a +1 for Arizona, meaning if both teams had lost their final or both had won their final pool game vs Cleveland, the Tigers would have almost certainly advanced.

The 5th and 6th hits of the 8th inning were both homers - by Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado - and the DBacks are our 8th champion of 9 pools.

The final spot is a bit more confusing and will reauire a longer blog, but here is the Dbacks rally.

Statis-Pro Baseball Team Sheets Cleaned Up for all 30 Teams

The Statis-Pro batter and pitcher cards are now all on the same sheet, so you can print all of the players for any of the 30 teams on one sheet of paper from one Google Sheet. The example printouts from the three teams in one pool—Philadelphia, San Diego and Baltimore—are at the bottom of this sheet for our next series. You can play your own Statis-Pro Baseball games for free.

But first, we did one final check for any players on the wrong roster and caught just over 50 players who needed to be moved, and they have been updated. We show all the players we just moved below, rank how big a pickup each player was for the new team, and then rank the 15 teams we believe improved the most and were hurt the most by these moves. 

Team	Improve		Team	Hurt
CLE	108		TEX	-10
PHI	101		BAL	-15
CHC	89		ATH	-30
SDP	62		DET	-34
PIT	60		KCR	-36
TBR	50		HOU	-39
TOR	46		WSN	-39
CHW	45		CIN	-40
BOS	43		ATL	-41
MIN	37		COL	-45
SEA	37		SFG	-49
ARI	32		STL	-61
NYY	28		LAA	-97
LAD	21		MIA	-103
MIL	10		NYM	-130

The following are the batters cards we just moved ranked with their new team and the team they came from followed by their ranking. The Line-up showswhere they hit in their new line-up, and if they are coming off the bench the are a "2." For fielding a CD5 is a near gold glove level player while a CD1 is a very poor defender. We also now have the actual homerun range on the batter cards - while the other columns just show the last number in each range on the Random Number card of 11-88.

Rnk	Player	Home Run!	SP	OPS	New	Old	Line-up	Pos	Fielding
1	Adley Rutschman	26 to 28	D	0.764	BOS	BAL	4	C	CD5
2	Brenton Doyle	27 to 31	A	0.705	CHW	COL	1	CF	CD5
3	Jo Adell	23 to 28	C	0.771	CLE	LAA	4	RF	CD1
4	Taylor Ward	24 to 27	D	0.765	SEA	BAL	5	RF	CD3
5	Lars Nootbaar	25 to 27	C	0.755	ARI	STL	5	DH	CD3
6	Nathaniel Lowe	25 to 27	D	0.740	CLE	CIN	5	1b	CD3
7	Marcelo Mayer	27 to 31	C	0.725	SFG	BOS	8	3b	CD2
8	Moisés Ballesteros	32 to 33	D	0.738	LAA	CHC	4	DH	CD1
9	Rece Hinds	27 to 31	C	0.725	BAL	MIA	9	RF	CD2
10	Eli White	26 to 27	A	0.664	BOS	ATL	10	RF	CD4
11	Colby Thomas	25 to 28	D	0.711	PHI	ATH	10	RF	CD2
11	Josh Smith	26 to 27	C	0.706	TOR	TEX	9	ss	CD4
13	Heliot Ramos	27 to 32	C	0.751	NYY	SFG	10	LF	CD1
14	Carlos Narváez	24 to 26	D	0.702	BAL	BOS	6	C	CD5
15	Joey Bart	26 to 27	D	0.697	CHW	ATL	7	C	CD4
16	Liam Hicks	27 to 27	D	0.700	TBR	MIA	6	1B	CD2
17	Connor Norby	26 to 28	B	0.700	COL	MIA	10	3b	CD3
18	Jack Suwinski	27 to 31	C	0.704	TBR	LAD	10	CF/LF	CD2
19	Kameron Misner	24 to 24	A	0.645	PHI	KCR	10	CF	CD4
20	Juan Brito	25 to 26	D	0.684	CIN	CLE	10	2b	CD3
21	Jacob Gonzalez	27 to 30	D	0.675	PIT	CHW	10	SS	CD2
22	Tyrone Taylor	26 to 27	B	0.662	CHC	NYM	10	CF	CD2
23	Hunter Feduccia	23 to 23	D	0.635	LAD	TBR	10	C	CD4
24	Ben Rortvedt	23 to 24	E	0.601	LAD	NYM	10	C	CD2

And below are the pitchers who moved between teams ranked as well. The "Role" number means what order they are in the rotation (21 is ace starter, 22 second bester starting pitcher etc) and then in the bullpen (31 closer, 32 as the 2nd best reliever etc). We also added the complete strikeout ranges for all pitchers, which is key because only numbers lower than that range canbe hits starting with 11 and ended one number below the bottom of the strikeout range (there is one balk number between the hits and strikeouts.

     

Rank	Team	PB-	Max IP	Strikeout!	New	Old	Role	ERA
1	José Soriano	2'-7	7	25 to 44	TOR	LAA	23	3.68
2	Braxton Garrett	2'-7	6	28 to 45	CHC	MIA	25	3.84
3	Kris Bubic	2'-7	6	26 to 45	LAD	KCR	26	3.91
4	Jeff Hoffman	2'-8	2	21 to 56	MIN	TOR	32	3.40
5	Kirby Yates	2'-8	1	27 to 45	PIT	LAA	33	3.40
6	Clay Holmes	4'-7	7	26 to 43	CHC	NYM	26	3.88
7	Casey Mize	4'-7	7	27 to 45	SDP	DET	24	4.06
8	Erik Miller	2'-7	2	22 to 53	BOS	SFG	33	3.45
9	Luke Weaver	2'-7	2	23 to 48	PIT	NYM	34	3.69
10	Craig Yoho	2'-7	1	27 to 45	CLE	MIL	34	3.70
11	JoJo Romero	2'-7	2	24 to 45	MIL	STL	36	3.57
12	Ryan Zeferjahn	2'-7	1	27 to 45	CHC	LAD	36	3.85
13	Hunter Stratton	2'-7	1	27 to 45	SDP	PIT	35	3.90
14	Brooks Raley	4'-7	2	24 to 45	PHI	NYM	34	3.82
15	Caleb Ferguson	4'-7	2	24 to 45	STL	CIN	32	3.90
16	Foster Griffin	4'-7	6	27 to 44	CLE	WSN	25	3.93
17	Nate Pearson	4-'7	1	27 to 45	KCR	HOU	37	4.05
18	Codi Heuer	4'-7	1	27 to 45	BAL	MIL	37	4.25
19	Caleb Kilian	2'-6	2	28 to 43	PHI	SFG	38	4.15
20	Dustin May	2'-6	6	25 to 44	MIL	STL	26	4.22
21	Tyler Wells	2'-6	2	27 to 46	TBR	BAL	38	4.29
22	Adam Macko	2'-6	4	27 to 45	TEX	TOR	36	4.35
23	Paul Sewald	2'-6	2	25 to 45	TOR	ARI	37	4.40
24	Victor Vodnik	2'-6	2	26 to 45	MIA	COL	38	4.40
25	Brent Suter	2'-5	2	28 to 43	ATL	LAA	37	4.30
25	Spencer Arrighetti	2'-5	5	24 to 45	TOR	HOU	25	4.55
26	Zack Littell	2'-5	7	31 to 43	ARI	WSN	27	4.56
27	Antonio Senzatela	2'-4	2	31 to 42	MIL	COL	39	5.37

Below are the print of those three teams. The match-up of San Diego and Philadelphia is the toughest set up as they were already good teams and were two of the most improved through these final player changes. If you look at the three printouts below, you will see that we already marked which pitchers were already used in the first game each team played against the Phillies.

The Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez (PB 2-9) shut down the Padres for eight innings, so they need to use their No. 4 starter Aaron Nola (PB 4-7 - average). In both games the Padres used their two top relievers to tied down the wins, so they cannot pitch in the 2nd game against either team.

The Padres also used their ace Michael King (PB 2-7) but he did not last as long in the 2-1 extra inning loss and they not only used their twop two relievers but three other relievers so do not have as many pitchers to use in the big match-up between the two hot teams.

The Orioles are actually in the best pitching match-up when they play the Phillies. They used Trevor Rogers (PB 2-6) who is now their No. 4 pitcher, so they get to use their ace Kyle Bradish in their game against the Phillies, and because the fell behind 4-1 early in that game, they did not use any of their top nine relievers so could have a big edge.

The Phillies were at home in both game 1s, so will play these two on the road. If they win both games then they win the pool with a 4-0 record. If the lose both to finish 2-2, then the other two teams will play twice and if one of them wins both games they would win the divisions with a 3-1 record and if all three teams finished 2-2 then it comes to run differential. If the Phillies split to finish 3-1, then they team that beat them would need to sweep the other team to also finish 3-1 and then it would come to run differential.

The Phillies advance.

The Phillies became the 7th team to win a 3-team pool and advance, leaving only two spots to be filled. Through seven innings of their last game, against Baltimore, the Phillies had outscored their opponents 14-3 in 35 innings of lock down defense and let 3-0. 

However, the end was wild as Baltimore's Carlos Narvaez hit a 3-run homer to tie the game 3-3 i the 8th inning.  In the top of the 10th Bryce Harper hit a 2-run homer to make it 5-3, but Tyler O'Neill countered with a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 10th to tie it again 5-5. However Justin Crawford's 2-run double in the top of the 11th started a 4-run rally to advance 9-5.

In the 7-0 win over San Diego batting champ Luiz Arraez went 4 of 4 and Kyle Schwarber hit a 2-run homer. The Phillies 22-7 run differential is by far the 2nd best of the 27 teams we have played in the game, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers who outscored opponents 35-11 for a +24 run differential to be the only other team to go 4-0. All pool play results is tracked here.

 

PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
2'-6	Shane Baz	Phi				4.29
2'-6	Albert Suárez	SDP				4.3
2'-8	Kyle Bradish	SDP	5	9	L	3.72
2'-6	Trevor Rogers	Phi	1	4	L	4.2
	Baltimore totals		6	13	0-2, -7	Eliminated
2'-8	Zack Wheeler	Bal	4	1	W	3.2
2'-7	Jesús Luzardo	Bal	9	5	W	3.57
2'-9	Cristopher Sánchez	SDP	2	1	W	3.15
4'-7	Aaron Nola	SDP	7	0	W	3.98
	Philadelphia totals		22	7	4-0, +15	Advance
2'-6	Michael King	Phi	1	2	L	3.8
4'-7	Joe Musgrove	Bal				3.91
2'-7	Nick Pivetta	bal				3.97
2'-8	Casey Mize	Phi	0	7	0-2, -8	4.15
	San Diego totals		1	9		Eliminated

As the winner of Pool H, Philadelphia awaits the winners of the only two remaining  pools. Arizona is 2-0 in Pool G and can clinch if they beat Detroit next and Cleveland is also in that divsion. In Pool I, Minnesota is 2-0 so has the edige, but they only won 4-3 and 6-4 so if they lose their last 2 it would be almost impossible to win the tiebreaking run difference over Pittsburgh or Seattle.

Cubs Advance to Semis After Cardinals Beat Royals in Statis-Pro

Having already done their job with two dominant wins to even their final pool play at 2-2 with a +6 run differential, the Chicago Cubs advance to a semifinal pod with the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays when St. Louis held on to beat Kansas City. It wasn't that the Royals collapsed after the surprising 2-0 start - it was always the case that with No. 3 and 4 pitchers who were PB 2-5 the 3rd and 4th games would be tough. 

Noah Cameron did in fact give up 6 hits and 4 runs in only 2 innings, and while both pullpens pitched well, that 4-0 deficit was too much to overcome as the Royals fell 6-3 to be eliminated and the Cardinals evened their record but were still 12 runs short of catching the Cubs in run differential.

Alec Burleson was the hitting star with 4 hits and 3 runs scored for the win.

One of the other semifinal pods is also set with the Dodgers, Red Sox and the one suprise team to advance so far the Mets. The final of 3 semifinal pods is not yet set, but the Dbacks, Twins and Phillies have the edge. If those three play out, then 7 of the top 10 in current power ratings would advance in Statis-Pro, with the two surprises being the #16 power rated Twins and the #25 Mets who were expected to be elite to begin the season. The two surprises to be eliminated are the #4 Braves and #6 Yankees.

 

PB-	Pod F pitchers	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
4'-7	David Peterson	KCR	7	1	W	3.65
2'-7	Edward Cabrera	KCR	2	5	L	3.96
2'-7	Justin Steele	StL	3	5	L	3.63
2'-6	Matthew Boyd	StL	5	0	W	3.93
	Chicago Cubs totals		17	11	2-2, +6	Advances
2'-8	Cole Ragans	Chc	5	2	W	3.31
2'-5	Seth Lugo	Chc	0	5	L	4.50
2'-7	Kris Bubic	StL	8	4	W	3.91
2'-5	Noah Cameron	StL	3	6	L	4.26
	KC Royals totals		16	17	2-2, -1	Eliminated
2'-6	Matthew Liberatore	KCR	6	3	W	4.35
4'-7	Michael McGreevy	Chc	5	3	W	4.05
2'-6	Dustin May	KCR	4	8	L	4.22
2'-6	Andre Pallante	Chc	1	7	L	4.33
	St. Louis totals		16	21	2-2, -5	Eliminated

Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win! And on verge of winning Pool to Advance

Pete Crow-Armstrong doubled, singled and hit a 2-run homer in a 6 inning rain shortened game to lead the Cubs to a 7-1 win to aviod elimination and movethem from a -5 to a +1 in the crucial run differential tie-breaker. The other speedster Nico Hoerner had two doubles to give the Cubs 7 extra base hits in just six innings. The key for the Cubs was that they had two new pitchers to pitch in the 3rd and 4th games of pool play with good PB 2-7 cards. Kevin Gausman pitched 5 innings allowing only 1 run in five innings in the 7-1 rain shorted first game against a below average Andre Pallante PB 2-6 . Then the Jordan Wicks new PB 2-7 card gave them a big edge over the Royals, the only team with really bad PB 2-5 cards for their final two games starting with Seth Lugo - producing a 5-0 win in the second game that propelled the Cubs not only to a final 2-2 record to stay alive by to a +6 in run differential for the 4-game pool.

 

PB-	Pitcher	Opp	Score	Allow	Result	Proj ERA
2-7	Kevin Gausman	KCR	7	1	w	3.65
2'-7	Edward Cabrera	KCR	2	5	l	3.96
2'-7	Justin Steele	StL	3	5	L	3.63
2'-7	Jordan Wicks	StL	5	0	w	3.93
	Chicago Cubs totals		17	11	2-2, +6	Needs StL win by +1 to +14
2'-8	Cole Ragans	Chc	5	2	w	3.31
2'-5	Seth Lugo	Chc	0	5	L	4.5
2'-7	Kris Bubic	StL	8	4	w	3.91
2'-5	Noah Cameron	StL				4.26
	KC Royals totals		13	11	2-1, +2	Must win
2'-6	Matthew Liberatore	KCR				4.35
4'-7	Michael McGreevy	Chc	5	3	W	4.05
2'-6	Dustin May	KCR	4	8	l	4.22
2'-6	Andre Pallante	Chc	1	7	l	4.33
	St. Louis totals		10	18	1-2, -8	must W by +15

In that game, it was just one big inning for the Cubs, with the last five batters in the lineup all reaching as they took a 4-0 lead. Ian Happ doubled to start the inning, and Tyler Austin singled him home. Nico Hoerner doubled Austin home to make it 2-0 and took third on an error by the left fielder. Carson Kelly then walked, Dansby Swanson singled the speedy Hoerner home to make it 3-0, and with one out, Suzuki’s sac fly made it 4-0.

In the 8th, Bregman doubled to lead off the inning and Austin singled him home.

The only run scored against the Cubs in the two games came from the first two hitters of the first game, when Witt singled and stole second and Pasquantino singled him home to make it 1-0 Royals. That really put the pressure on the Cubs, but it was the last run they would allow in the two games.

With the Royals throwing another weak PB 2-5 pitcher in the finale against St. Louis, the Cubs can only watch and hope. If the Royals pull another upset, they are the surprise champs and advance with a 3-1 record.

However, if St. Louis wins, all three teams finish 2-2 and the Cubs advance unless the Cardinals win by at least 15 runs to beat the Cubs in run differential.

 

Pos	CHC	SP	OPS
CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	AA	0.833
RF	Seiya Suzuki	C	0.789
3b	Alex Bregman	D	0.784
1b	Michael Busch	D	0.76
LF	Ian Happ	C	0.758
DH	Tyler Austin	D	0.744
2b	Nico Hoerner	A	0.731
C	Carson Kelly	D	0.71
SS	Dansby Swanson	B	0.707
Pos	KCR	SP	OPS
SS	Bobby Witt Jr	AA	0.870
1b	Vinnie Pasquantino	D	0.818
RF	Jac Caglianone	D	0.774
3b	Maikel Garcia	A	0.757
C	Salvador Perez	E	0.757
LF	Isaac Collins	A	0.733
DH	Starling Marte	B	0.732
2b	Michael Massey	D	0.701
CF	Kyle Isbel	B	0.687
Pos	STL	SP	OPS
2b	JJ Wetherholt	B	0.735
1b	Alec Burleson	C	0.788
C	Iván Herrera	C	0.763
DH	Lars Nootbaar	C	0.755
SS	Masyn Winn	B	0.725
LF	José Fermín	A	0.717
3b	Nolan Gorman	D	0.713
RF	Jordan Walker	B	0.71
CF	Nathan Church	C	0.692
2B	César Prieto	D	0.656