Monday, September 4, 2023

New Rutgers, Florida State and Va Tech team join High Tempo Squads

 Three of our new team averaged more than 73 possessions per game, and thus Value Add Basketball Games in which they play have extra possessions beyond the normal 44 we play. 

If you choose to use the optional tempo rules, Florida State and Virginia Tech games start with an extra four possessions - so have 48 possessions instead of the normal 44. Rutgers played at an even faster pace, and estimated 80 possessions per game, so their games start with an extra seven possessions or 51 total for the game not counting the 22 possessions we assumed were already played when we start game 20-20.

None of the are close to Loyola's +26 of course, as they already won one of our games 138-117, and when they played Illinois we actually started with a +30 since when two fast tempo teams play you add both numbers. Very few of the great teams play at that fast a pace - and the last teams to have extra possessions were Maryland in 2002 at +1 and the great Duke team in 2001 at +3. Here is the list of the only teams with the line across the bottom for the extra possessions. 

High Tempo VABG Teams (>73 poss)    Year     Add Possessions
Loyola Marymount199026
Miami FL196518
Jacksonville197010
Rutgers19767
St. Bonaventure19707
Kentucky19705
Michigan19655
Florida State19934
Illinois19894
Virginia Tech19864
Marquette19554
Duke20013
Georgia Tech19902
DePaul19801
Maryland20021

Total possessions are listed at www.kenpom.com back through 1999. For years prior to that we estimate possessions based on a team's field goals made, turnovers, opponents defensive rebounds and then 40% of their free throws made. As you can see, the estimates work out about the same as for www.kenpom.com except this formula estimated 64 possessions for Boston College and it was actually 61. The first three end a possession every time. The free throws made is a little tricky, because five types of free throws do NOT end possessions (technical foul, front end of one-and-one, first of two or three shots and second of three shots), while four kinds of free throws do end possessions (bank end of one-and-one, one shot after making a basket, last of 2 or last of 3 shots). Our guess is about 40%.

            
Temp of New Teams                    BC  Clem  FSU  Marq  Neb  NW  Rutg  Stan UFC Va T Wash
FG made2632332923253825253130
FTM * .445.54105.54.565.565.755.25
TO1316161211111212121615
Opp Dreb2120242625252420222421
Est. Possessions6473.57777656680635657771
            
KenPom Poss61NANANA6566NA6365NA71
            
Additional Poss  44  7  4 
 BCClemFSUMarNebNWRutgStanUFCVa TWash
Here are the quick calculations and three new teams that calculated as more than 73 possessions a game and thus made the list above.

The fast paced team have a small font line at the bottom indicating the option to start with more possessions in the game rather than starting at the top of the score sheet on possession 44.






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High Tempo VABG Teams (>73 poss)    Year     Add Possessions
Loyola Marymount199026
Miami FL196518
Jacksonville197010
Rutgers19767
St. Bonaventure19707
Kentucky19705
Michigan19655
Florida State19934
Illinois19894
Virginia Tech19864
Marquette19554
Duke20013
Georgia Tech19902
DePaul19801
Maryland20021
dddd

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