Baseball Breakdown of Double Play Grounders and Would-be Sac Flies Per Out

Because I wanted to revisit Statis-Pro baseball and distribute outs and errors with a 20-sided die rather than their playing cards, I broke down the 185,000 plus times a batter stepped up to the plate last year and provided the numbers under the "All PA" column below.

The error number is not a true percentage, because in fact multiple outs can be recorded on a given playmaking fielding averages appear even higher than they are per play, but let's skip that for now.

	All PA	Opportunity		In play out	per 20-sided die	1B or 2B
TPA	185498		185498	86309	20	50050
1b	26880		26880			26880
2B	8400		8400			8400
3B	810		810
HR	6120		6120
GB 1 out	40298		31818	31817	7.4
GDP	3810	0.31	12290	12290	2.8
Infield error	2070		2070	2070	0.5
SF	1170	0.09	13000	13000	3.0	13000
Fly Ball out	37462		25632	26382	6.1
OF or C error	750		750	750	0.2
SO	38228		38228
BB	15840		15840
HBP	1770		1770			1770
SH	930	choice	930
IBB	960	choice	960

The most important thing I needed to break out was the chance of a double play grounder and of a sacrifice fly in order to give the proper chances of each on my 20-sided die - each representing a 5% chance of something happening through a subsequent role of the die if the first one came up "20" could give a 0.25% chance on two rolls.

At first tally, there were on 3,810 double-play grounders. However, there is only a man on first and less than two outs 31% of the time so we can reverse engineer to estimate there were 12,290 balls hit like a double-play grounder - but 69% of the time they just turned into groundouts because there was no force for a double play.

There were only 1,170 sacrifice flies, but there is a man on third with less than two outs only 9 percent of the time, so likewise we can reverse engineer that an estimated 13,000 balls were hit deep enough to be sacrifice flies but 91% of the time no one was on 3rd base to run home and give credit. Most do not realize that a batter does not get a sacrifice fly credit if a runner goes from 2nd to 3rd base on his fly ball.

Once you take away all the hits, strikeouts, walks and decisions to either bunt or intentionally walk a batter, we are left with 86,309 times that a batter hit a ball that resulted in an out or someone reaching on an error. When you break that down to a 20-sided die, we find 3 of the sides should equal a double play grounder and another 3 equal a sac fly. You also have 7 other clean groundouts, 6 other clean foul balls, and then some fractions that we break down into a second roll of the die if a 20 comes up the first time.

Die	Out on card (DP if force, if not runners hold and out at 1st)
1	DP
2	DP unless batter OBR A
3	DP unless batter OBR A-B
4	DP unless batter OBR A-C
5	DP unless batter OBR A-D
6	Ground Out Runner A Advance
7	Ground Out Runner A-B Advance
8	Ground Out Runner A-C Advance
9	Ground Out Runner A-D Advance
10	Ground Out Runner Advance
11	Fly Out
12	Fly Out
13	Fly Out
14	Fly Out, runner OBR A on 2nd or 3rd Advance
15	Fly Out, runner OBR A-B on 2nd or 3rd Advance
16	Fly Out, runner OBR A-C on 2nd or 3rd Advance
17	Fly Out, runner OBR A-D on 2nd or 3rd Advance
18	Fly Out, runner on 2nd or 3rd Advance
19-20	Roll Again Below - possible defensive play
	2nd roll below
2 dice new roll	Based on two 6-sided dice out hit to: 2 or 3 = 1b, 4 = P, 5 = cf, 6 = 3b, 7 or 12 = SS, 8 = 2b, 9 = pulled to outfielder, 10 = C, 11 = opposite field outfielder.
1	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 1 -10
2	E1-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE OBRA or B lead runner beats attempted throw, all safe - otherwise lead runner out
3	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 2-10
4	E2-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE OBRA lead runner beats attempted throw - otherwise lead runner out
5	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 3-10
6	E3-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE Fielder throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
7	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 4-10
8	E4-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE Fielder throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
9	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 5-10
10	E5-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD2-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
11	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 6-10
12	E6-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD2-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
13	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 7-10
14	E7-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD3-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
15	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 8-10
16	E8-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD3-4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance
17	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 9-10 - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
18	E9-10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
19	out runners advance, BUT 2-base error if E reading 10 - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
20	E10 1-base error, OTHERWISE CD4 throws out lead and DP if force, or OF diving catch - otherwise batter out all others advance - OPTIONAL NEXT PLAY IS Z PLAY
	On references to OBR runners, if lead runner is too fast to get defense throws out batter.

Value Add Projects for All 2019 Players - Final Four of Auburn, Duke, Villanova, UNC

This link to projected Value Add Rankings for close to 5,000 players provides you with a column A to make notes on any player that should be removed, changed to another team, or added in one of the "Roster Spot Open" spots for teams with fewer than 13 players in the system.

Tracking which team a given player is on is a monumental task (an Atlanta sports host tried to convince a caller that I really do work 60+ hour work weeks and just do this for fun), and I WELCOME notes correcting my mistakes - or even subjective notes on players that should be rated higher by played injures, or do things that do not show up in the stats like on-ball defense or setting picks. Just type anything you want into Column A by something you believe or know is off on a given line.

Here is a rundown of how we project the next season's Value Add rating of different sets of players.

Group 1: Freshmen. The rankings for these players is determined matching where 247Sports ranks a freshman and how freshman who ranked that high in past rankings performed.

Group 2: Returning Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors. Last year I studied the 61,000+ Value Add rankings from the 2001-02 to 2016-17 who stayed at the same school four years, and calculated the following average improvement for five groups based on how valuable they were their freshman season:

Freshman Value Add Range	Freshman	Sophomore	Junior	Senior
Exactly 0.00	0.00	0.82	1.13	1.36
up to 1.00	0.59	1.18	1.57	1.90
up to 2.00	1.31	2.24	2.78	3.31
up to 3.00	2.22	2.84	3.48	3.94
3.01 or higher	3.99	4.05	4.55	5.23
4 year players, same school	0.98	1.66	2.09	2.48

The average improvement works out to the following:

• A freshman with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve by 1.00 his sophomore year, while others project to improve by 0.7.
• A sophomore with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 0.8 his junior year, while others improve 0.4. 
• A junior with a rating of 1.01 or higher projects to improve 06 his senior year, while others improve 0.3.

Further, in the system I check players against their projected NBA status and where they were originally ranked in high school - this has not been done to the 2019 projections yet, as it takes a while, but adjustments may be made based on the following:

• A player ranked as one of the top 50 or so NBA prospects in their place have a minimum Value Add ranking based on exactly where they rank that will take the place of a lower projected Value Add using the system above.
• A player who was highly rated as a recruit who has a bad year (often the result of injury or a lack of playing time) gets at least a rating equal to one point below the average number of stars he received as a recruit (e.g. a 5-star recruit who has a bad first year, still gets at least a 4.0 Value Add based on a history of such players improvement much more dramatically than others).

Group 3: JUCO Transfers. While 247 is my basis for freshmen, Brad Winton's JUCORecruiting.com list between 2011 to 2015 gave me averages of how his ranked JUCOs typically perform when they move to a four-year school. In short, as we saw with Jae Crowder and others, Junior College players make their big improvements before stepping on the court of a 4-year college, usually as a junior. They can instantly improve a team because their game is so much more developed than freshman recruits. As soon as Delon Wright and Gary Payton stepped on the court they made Utah and Oregon State, respectively, 10 points better than a replacement player.

Group 4: NBA Prospects. This pre-March Madness post gave each college player's chance for success in the NBA, with 10.0 being the highest. The following are three considerations for NBA prospects.

a. If a prospect Signs with an Agent or Makes clear they are leaving for the pros, then they are not listed with a 2019 Projection.

b. If a prospect is considering going to the NBA or even puts their name in the draft but does not sign with an agent then they are still listed with a slash after the team name indicating they could leave for the NBA.

c. The NBA rating is also used to calculate a minimum Value Add projection for the next season that is higher than the projection based on their previous season above. This might be needed because a player simply underperformed in the previous season, but it is also often the case that he played hurt or was on a bench at a program like Duke or Kentucky that had other NBA prospects in front of him, so that when a starting spot clears for them the next season they will likely be much higher. In that case, we calculate what their Value Add projection would be if they had played up to their potential. For example, Maryland's Bruno Fernando had a strong freshman year with a 4.76 Value Add so would have projected to improve a bit, but his NBA rating would indicate his Value Add should be almost twice as high as 9.00+, and we take 70% of that NBA projection to raise him to 6.02 for next season if he is still at Maryland. If you see "Proj raised due to NBA potential" in the notes field, it means the player's projection was raised due to NBA potential beyond what his previous season would actually project. Here is the list of all NBA prospects who had their Value Add Projection raised for 2019 beyond what they actually produced the previous year.

NBA Prospect Under performing	Height	Class	School	Adjusted VA
Bruno Fernando #23	6-foot-10	So	Maryland	6.202
Hamidou Diallo #3	6-foot-5	Fr	Kentucky/could go NBA	5.635
Jericho Sims #20	6-foot-9	So	Texas	5.607
Bruce Brown #11	6-foot-5	So	Miami FL/could go NBA	5.39
Marques Bolden #20	6-foot-11	Jr	Duke	5.236
Jaylen Hands #4	6-foot-3	Fr	UCLA/could go NBA	5.194
Jarred Vanderbilt #2	6-foot-9	Fr	Kentucky/could go NBA	5.173
John Petty #23	6-foot-5	Fr	Alabama/could go NBA	4.956
Markis McDuffie #32	6-foot-8	Sr	Wichita St.	4.886
Kavell Bigby-Williams 35	6-foot-11	Sr	Oregon	4.606
Donovan Mitchell #2	6-foot-8	Jr	Available	4.354
Bennie Boatwright #25	6-foot-10	Sr	USC	4.2
Jeremy Hemsley #42	6-foot-3	Sr	San Diego St.	4.158
Chase Jeter 2	6-foot-10	Jr	Arizona	4.13
Yankuba Sima #35	6-foot-11	Sr	Oklahoma St.	4.067
Corey Sanders #3	6-foot-2	Sr	Rutgers	4.06
Tacko Fall #24	7-foot-6	Sr	UCF	4.053
Shaqquan Aaron #0	6-foot-7	Sr	USC	4.046
Esa Ahmad #23	6-foot-8	Sr	West Virginia	4.032
Haanif Cheatham #25	6-foot-5	Sr	Florida Gulf Coast	3.99
Carlton Bragg 15	6-foot-10	Jr	New Mexico	3.983
Jeremy Miller #11	6-foot-10	Sr	Northeastern	3.885
Jalen Poyser 24	6-foot-4	So	St. Bonaventure	3.878
Brandon Randolph #5	6-foot-6	So	Arizona	3.85
Kassoum Yakwe #14	6-foot-7	Sr	St. John's	3.85
Jeremiah Tilmon #23	6-foot-10	So	Missouri	3.822
MJ Walker #23	6-foot-6	So	Florida St.	3.808
DJ Harvey #3	6-foot-6	So	Notre Dame	3.801
Chris Smith #5	6-foot-9	So	UCLA	3.801
Keith Williams #2	6-foot-5	So	Cincinnati	3.794
Daejon Davis #1	6-foot-3	So	Stanford	3.78
Paul Scruggs #1	6-foot-3	So	Xavier	3.78
Devontae Shuler #0	6-foot-2	So	Mississippi	3.766
Kostas Antetokounmpo #13	6-foot-10	Fr	Dayton/could go NBA	3.766
Emmanuel Akot #24	6-foot-7	So	Arizona	3.766
Chaundee Brown #23	6-foot-5	So	Wake Forest	3.759
Victor Bailey #10	6-foot-4	So	Oregon	3.752
Marcus Carr #5	6-foot-1	So	Available	3.745
Makai Ashton-Langford #1	6-foot-3	So	Providence	3.745
Alex O'Connell #15	6-foot-6	So	Duke	3.71
Jacob Larsen #14	6-foot-11	So	Gonzaga	3.703
Abu Kigab #24	6-foot-6	So	Oregon	3.696
Charles O'Bannon #13	6-foot-6	So	USC	3.696
Isaiah Washington #11	6-foot-1	So	Minnesota	3.689
Jermaine Samuels #23	6-foot-6	So	Villanova	3.682
Malik Williams #5	6-foot-11	So	Louisville	3.675

Group 5: Placeholders to Fill Rosters. The one other item I added this year is a line for the available spots on each team's roster. If a team has nine players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, then they have four lines on which the "player name" is "Roster Spot Open." This year I do assign a value based on what the team can typically expect. A solid team like Marquette will average about 1.30 in Value Add filling their roster, while Kentucky averages 2.51 and can be much higher if they are waiting to decide which 5-star to take.

If you want the much longer explanation of each group presented last June, click here and link to the explanations of these and others.

The link indicates that if every team keep any more potential pro players from leaving, then Villanova projects as the best team at 69.56, Kentucky is second at 63.50, and a Final Four would round out with Duke at 56.38 and Auburn at 53.75. However, that would entail Villanova keeping the dominant trio from the National title game in Mikal Bridges (as likely lottery pick), National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, and Tournament MVP Donte DiVincenzo. Kentucky has six current potential players who could go pro to cut them down to seven returning.

If all these players left for the pros, and every other team also lost all potential pro prospects, then Auburn would project as the No. 1 team at 50.17 (they only have one player who might leave), and Duke would be just behind them at 49.97 (only two players and not the keys to the team), with Villanova still holding onto third place even without that trio, but North Carolina replacing Kentucky to round out a projected Final Four.

Here is the whole list, but I caution that the offseason projections really do not work well on the teams outside the Top 100.

ROUGH Projections	Conf	If no more NBA departures	Rank	Poss NBA	Rating if everyone leaves for NBA	Everyone leaves for NBA
Villanova	BE	69.56	1	3	49.91	3
Kentucky	SEC	63.5	2	6	45.69	6
Duke	ACC	56.38	3	2	49.97	2
Auburn	SEC	53.75	4	1	50.17	1
North Carolina	ACC	48.77	5		48.77	4
Kansas	B12	48.04	6	2	38.95	14
Nevada	MWC	47.52	7	2	36.97	19
Oregon	P12	46.62	8		46.62	5
Virginia	ACC	45.65	9	1	42.1	9
Syracuse	ACC	45.5	10	2	34.53	33
Mississippi St.	SEC	45.42	11	1	39.99	10
Gonzaga	WCC	45	12	2	37.14	18
Miami FL	ACC	44.75	13	3	36.21	22
Maryland	B10	44.22	14	1	38.62	15
LSU	SEC	44.15	15		44.15	7
North Carolina St.	ACC	42.67	16		42.67	8
Ohio St.	B10	41.95	17	1	33.85	41
Virginia Tech	ACC	41.51	18	1	39.54	11
Michigan St.	B10	41.44	19	1	37.2	17
Michigan	B10	40.94	20	1	35.08	27
UCLA	P12	40.2	21	2	36.3	21
Florida	SEC	39.94	22	1	35.77	23
Montana	BSky	39.14	23		39.14	12
Marquette	BE	39.02	24		39.02	13
Kansas St.	B12	38.52	25	1	33.98	38
Arizona St.	P12	38.02	26		38.02	16
Texas A&M	SEC	37.9	27	2	30.11	57
Texas	B12	37.09	28	1	34.31	35
Iowa	B10	36.88	29	2	31.89	52
Florida St.	ACC	36.88	30		36.88	20
Boston College	ACC	36.4	31	1	28.87	65
Iowa St.	B12	35.92	32	1	33.85	39
Indiana	B10	35.64	33		35.64	24
Tennessee	SEC	35.52	34		35.52	25
BYU	WCC	35.28	35		35.28	26
St. John's	BE	35.01	36	1	29.17	61
TCU	B12	34.95	37		34.95	28
Fresno St.	MWC	34.88	38		34.88	29
Davidson	A10	34.84	39		34.84	30
Northwestern	B10	34.83	40		34.83	31
Houston	Amer	34.7	41		34.7	32
Northeastern	CAA	34.48	42		34.48	34
Washington	P12	34.33	43	1	30.82	54
Alabama	SEC	34.17	44	3	27.38	76
Vanderbilt	SEC	34.12	45		34.12	36
Butler	BE	34.11	46		34.11	37
Texas Tech	B12	33.88	47	1	26.01	97
South Dakota St.	Sum	33.85	48		33.85	40
Notre Dame	ACC	33.7	49		33.7	42
Purdue	B10	33.65	50	1	27.54	75
Xavier	BE	33.61	51		33.61	43
Clemson	ACC	33.44	52		33.44	44
Nebraska	B10	33.25	53	2	23.77	131
Creighton	BE	32.79	54		32.79	45
West Virginia	B12	32.74	55		32.74	46
Loyola Chicago	MVC	32.72	56		32.72	47
Georgetown	BE	32.58	57		32.58	48
Providence	BE	32.46	58		32.46	49
USC	P12	32.42	59		32.42	50
Wake Forest	ACC	32.22	60		32.22	51
Penn St.	B10	31.31	61	1	26.56	82
San Diego St.	MWC	31.28	62		31.28	53
Illinois	B10	30.64	63		30.64	55
Wisconsin	B10	30.21	64		30.21	56
Missouri	SEC	30.18	65	1	25.46	105
SMU	Amer	29.93	66	2	22.14	153
Arizona	P12	29.72	67		29.72	58
Oregon St.	P12	29.72	68		29.72	59
Buffalo	MAC	29.39	69		29.39	60
Stanford	P12	29.06	70		29.06	62
UNC Greensboro	SC	29.04	71		29.04	63
Louisville	ACC	29	72	1	26.19	91
San Diego	WCC	28.98	73		28.98	64
Baylor	B12	28.84	74		28.84	66
South Dakota	Sum	28.58	75		28.58	67
Georgia Tech	ACC	28.44	76	1	23.55	134
Georgia St.	SB	28.04	77	1	25.25	111
Dayton	A10	28.01	78	1	28.41	68
Rhode Island	A10	27.98	79		27.98	69
Marshall	CUSA	27.93	80		27.93	70
Belmont	OVC	27.9	81		27.9	71
Arkansas	SEC	27.89	82		27.89	72
Wofford	SC	27.71	83		27.71	73
Temple	Amer	27.7	84		27.7	74
Oklahoma St.	B12	27.35	85		27.35	77
Northern Kentucky	Horz	27.03	86		27.03	78
New Mexico	MWC	27.02	87		27.02	79
Murray St.	OVC	26.87	88		26.87	80
Minnesota	B10	26.71	89		26.71	81
Connecticut	Amer	26.53	90		26.53	83
Lipscomb	ASun	26.5	91		26.5	84
Rider	MAAC	26.38	92		26.38	85
UC Davis	BW	26.35	93		26.35	86
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	26.35	94		26.35	87
Richmond	A10	26.3	95		26.3	88
Toledo	MAC	26.27	96		26.27	89
Cincinnati	Amer	26.2	97		26.2	90
Northern Iowa	MVC	26.16	98		26.16	92
Ball St.	MAC	26.13	99		26.13	93
Furman	SC	26.13	100		26.13	94
Liberty	BSth	26.12	101		26.12	95
Southern Illinois	MVC	26.02	102		26.02	96
North Texas	CUSA	25.99	103		25.99	98
Northern Colorado	BSky	25.97	104		25.97	99
Mississippi	SEC	25.86	105		25.86	100
Akron	MAC	25.72	106		25.72	101
South Carolina	SEC	25.71	107		25.71	102
Oklahoma	B12	25.69	108		25.69	103
Georgia Southern	SB	25.62	109		25.62	104
Saint Mary's	WCC	25.43	110		25.43	106
Fort Wayne	Sum	25.42	111		25.42	107
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	25.36	112		25.36	108
Georgia	SEC	25.36	113		25.36	109
New Mexico St.	WAC	25.27	114		25.27	110
Memphis	Amer	25.23	115		25.23	112
Canisius	MAAC	25.11	116		25.11	113
Rutgers	B10	25.1	117		25.1	114
Jacksonville St.	OVC	24.86	118		24.86	115
Wichita St.	Amer	24.85	119	1	19.12	193
Radford	BSth	24.84	120		24.84	116
Hofstra	CAA	24.72	121	1	19.83	180
Saint Joseph's	A10	24.7	122		24.7	117
Harvard	Ivy	24.69	123		24.69	118
Utah St.	MWC	24.62	124		24.62	119
DePaul	BE	24.41	125		24.41	120
Old Dominion	CUSA	24.39	126		24.39	121
Tulsa	Amer	24.38	127		24.38	122
Colorado	P12	24.2	128		24.2	124
UC Irvine	BW	24.15	129		24.15	125
Vermont	AE	24	130		24	126
Weber St.	BSky	23.97	131		23.97	127
Illinois St.	MVC	23.91	132		23.91	128
Tulane	Amer	23.78	133	1	18.85	198
Cornell	Ivy	23.78	134		23.78	130
St. Bonaventure	A10	23.61	135		23.61	132
Wright St.	Horz	23.56	136		23.56	133
Valparaiso	MVC	23.48	137		23.48	135
Saint Louis	A10	23.36	138		23.36	136
Pacific	WCC	23.36	139		23.36	137
Utah Valley	WAC	23.31	140		23.31	138
Southern Miss	CUSA	23.18	141		23.18	139
Idaho St.	BSky	23.09	142		23.09	140
Eastern Michigan	MAC	23.08	143	1	24.32	123
UTSA	CUSA	22.99	144		22.99	141
UCF	Amer	22.86	145		22.86	142
St. Francis PA	NEC	22.71	146		22.71	143
Austin Peay	OVC	22.71	147		22.71	144
Campbell	BSth	22.69	148		22.69	145
College of Charleston	CAA	22.48	149		22.48	146
Seton Hall	BE	22.48	150		22.48	147
Iona	MAAC	22.46	151		22.46	148
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	22.41	152	1	23.83	129
William & Mary	CAA	22.37	153		22.37	149
Eastern Washington	BSky	22.34	154		22.34	150
Bradley	MVC	22.28	155		22.28	151
Ohio	MAC	22.28	156		22.28	152
Massachusetts	A10	22.09	157		22.09	154
Central Michigan	MAC	22.09	158		22.09	155
Winthrop	BSth	22.08	159		22.08	156
Indiana St.	MVC	22.01	160		22.01	157
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	21.97	161		21.97	158
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	21.67	162		21.67	159
Yale	Ivy	21.65	163		21.65	160
Illinois Chicago	Horz	21.47	164		21.47	161
San Francisco	WCC	21.22	165		21.22	162
UAB	CUSA	21.11	166		21.11	163
Columbia	Ivy	21.08	167		21.08	164
Towson	CAA	20.98	168		20.98	165
Princeton	Ivy	20.97	169		20.97	166
James Madison	CAA	20.83	170		20.83	167
Northern Illinois	MAC	20.8	171		20.8	168
Missouri St.	MVC	20.71	172		20.71	169
Grand Canyon	WAC	20.62	173		20.62	170
Loyola Marymount	WCC	20.61	174		20.61	171
UNLV	MWC	20.6	175		20.6	172
Pepperdine	WCC	20.5	176		20.5	173
Wyoming	MWC	20.37	177		20.37	174
Penn	Ivy	20.28	178		20.28	176
Hartford	AE	20.05	179		20.05	177
Kent St.	MAC	20.04	180		20.04	178
Lehigh	Pat	19.94	181		19.94	179
UT Arlington	SB	19.8	182		19.8	181
Charleston Southern	BSth	19.78	183	1	20.36	175
Evansville	MVC	19.67	184		19.67	182
La Salle	A10	19.61	185		19.61	183
North Florida	ASun	19.5	186		19.5	184
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	19.46	187		19.46	185
East Tennessee St.	SC	19.45	188		19.45	186
UNC Asheville	BSth	19.45	189		19.45	187
Western Kentucky	CUSA	19.35	190		19.35	188
Western Michigan	MAC	19.3	191		19.3	189
South Alabama	SB	19.22	192		19.22	190
Troy	SB	19.14	193		19.14	191
George Mason	A10	19.13	194		19.13	192
UNC Wilmington	CAA	19.09	195		19.09	194
Colorado St.	MWC	19.09	196		19.09	195
VCU	A10	19.05	197		19.05	196
NJIT	ASun	18.95	198		18.95	197
Seattle	WAC	18.82	199		18.82	199
Duquesne	A10	18.59	200		18.59	200
Louisiana Monroe	SB	18.52	201		18.52	201
Texas Southern	SWAC	18.48	202		18.48	202
Coastal Carolina	SB	18.36	203		18.36	203
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	18.2	204		18.2	204
Milwaukee	Horz	18.12	205		18.12	205
Colgate	Pat	17.98	206		17.98	206
Lamar	Slnd	17.91	207		17.91	207
Utah	P12	17.89	208		17.89	208
Montana St.	BSky	17.85	209		17.85	209
Washington St.	P12	17.84	210	1	13.71	263
Miami OH	MAC	17.76	211		17.76	210
Monmouth	MAAC	17.61	212		17.61	211
Wagner	NEC	17.48	213		17.48	212
Idaho	BSky	17.26	214		17.26	213
Drexel	CAA	17.19	215		17.19	214
FIU	CUSA	17.17	216		17.17	215
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	17.1	217		17.1	216
North Dakota	BSky	17.09	218		17.09	217
Bowling Green	MAC	17.06	219		17.06	218
California	P12	17.01	220		17.01	219
Portland St.	BSky	16.91	221		16.91	220
Elon	CAA	16.9	222		16.9	221
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	16.88	223		16.88	222
Saint Peter's	MAAC	16.87	224		16.87	223
UC Santa Barbara	BW	16.66	225		16.66	224
Boston University	Pat	16.45	226		16.45	225
Delaware	CAA	16.45	227		16.45	226
Hawaii	BW	16.43	228		16.43	227
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	16.39	229		16.39	228
Robert Morris	NEC	16.29	230		16.29	229
Niagara	MAAC	16.27	231		16.27	230
Boise St.	MWC	16.26	232		16.26	231
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	16.24	233		16.24	232
Texas St.	SB	16.11	234		16.11	233
Denver	Sum	16.09	235		16.09	234
Tennessee St.	OVC	16.06	236		16.06	235
Nicholls St.	Slnd	15.96	237		15.96	236
Appalachian St.	SB	15.95	238		15.95	237
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	15.84	239		15.84	238
Albany	AE	15.61	240		15.61	239
Air Force	MWC	15.55	241		15.55	240
UMBC	AE	15.48	242		15.48	241
Fairfield	MAAC	15.39	243		15.39	242
Stony Brook	AE	15.24	244		15.24	243
Oral Roberts	Sum	15.24	245		15.24	244
Hampton	MEAC	15.23	246		15.23	245
Oakland	Horz	15.09	247		15.09	246
High Point	BSth	15.08	248		15.08	247
Drake	MVC	14.96	249		14.96	248
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	14.91	250		14.91	249
Long Beach St.	BW	14.9	251		14.9	250
George Washington	A10	14.87	252		14.87	251
Navy	Pat	14.59	253		14.59	252
Brown	Ivy	14.54	254		14.54	253
Army	Pat	14.49	255		14.49	254
Binghamton	AE	14.29	256		14.29	256
Manhattan	MAAC	14.23	257	1	14.37	255
North Dakota St.	Sum	14.05	258		14.05	257
Quinnipiac	MAAC	13.93	259		13.93	258
Howard	MEAC	13.91	260		13.91	259
Jacksonville	ASun	13.8	261		13.8	260
Fordham	A10	13.78	262		13.78	261
Mercer	SC	13.75	263		13.75	262
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	13.68	264		13.68	264
New Orleans	Slnd	13.67	265		13.67	265
Charlotte	CUSA	13.55	266	1	10.94	306
Bucknell	Pat	13.53	267		13.53	266
Eastern Illinois	OVC	13.46	268		13.46	267
Chattanooga	SC	13.35	269		13.35	268
Detroit	Horz	13.25	270		13.25	269
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	13.22	271		13.22	270
Santa Clara	WCC	13.14	272		13.14	271
Central Arkansas	Slnd	13.01	273		13.01	272
Abilene Christian	Slnd	12.87	274		12.87	274
Portland	WCC	12.86	275		12.86	275
Holy Cross	Pat	12.77	276		12.77	276
Gardner Webb	BSth	12.7	277		12.7	277
St. Francis NY	NEC	12.69	278		12.69	278
Western Carolina	SC	12.62	279		12.62	279
The Citadel	SC	12.61	280	1	12.9	273
Tennessee Martin	OVC	12.52	281		12.52	280
Southern Utah	BSky	12.44	282		12.44	281
Alabama St.	SWAC	12.42	283		12.42	282
Sacramento St.	BSky	12.33	284		12.33	283
Dartmouth	Ivy	12.32	285		12.32	284
Morehead St.	OVC	12.32	286		12.32	285
American	Pat	12.29	287		12.29	286
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	12.16	288		12.16	287
Little Rock	SB	12.08	289		12.08	288
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	12.06	290		12.06	289
Pittsburgh	ACC	11.91	291		11.91	290
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	11.85	292		11.85	291
Tennessee Tech	OVC	11.83	293		11.83	292
Central Connecticut	NEC	11.81	294		11.81	293
Siena	MAAC	11.81	295		11.81	294
Green Bay	Horz	11.79	296		11.79	295
North Carolina Central	MEAC	11.78	297		11.78	296
Lafayette	Pat	11.69	298		11.69	297
UMass Lowell	AE	11.55	299		11.55	299
South Florida	Amer	11.51	300		11.51	300
UTEP	CUSA	11.46	301		11.46	301
McNeese St.	Slnd	11.18	302	1	11.67	298
Sacred Heart	NEC	11.15	303		11.15	302
Marist	MAAC	11.13	304		11.13	303
Samford	SC	11.07	305		11.07	304
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	11.07	306		11.07	305
Loyola MD	Pat	10.86	307		10.86	307
Arkansas St.	SB	10.74	308		10.74	308
IUPUI	Horz	10.73	309		10.73	309
New Hampshire	AE	10.69	310		10.69	310
Youngstown St.	Horz	10.62	311		10.62	311
Norfolk St.	MEAC	10.59	312		10.59	312
UMKC	WAC	10.48	313		10.48	313
Western Illinois	Sum	10.45	314		10.45	314
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	10.43	315		10.43	315
Southern	SWAC	10.4	316		10.4	316
Rice	CUSA	10.35	317		10.35	317
Cal Poly	BW	10.26	318		10.26	318
Stetson	ASun	10.18	319		10.18	319
Northwestern St.	Slnd	9.89	320		9.89	320
East Carolina	Amer	9.87	321		9.87	321
Northern Arizona	BSky	9.86	322		9.86	322
Cal St. Northridge	BW	9.6	323		9.6	324
UC Riverside	BW	9.52	324		9.52	325
Savannah St.	MEAC	9.49	325	1	9.81	323
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	9.44	326		9.44	326
Cleveland St.	Horz	9.27	327		9.27	327
Houston Baptist	Slnd	9.01	328		9.01	328
Florida A&M	MEAC	9.01	329		9.01	329
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	9.01	330		9.01	330
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	8.96	331		8.96	331
Delaware St.	MEAC	8.7	332		8.7	332
VMI	SC	8.62	333		8.62	333
Kennesaw St.	ASun	8.53	334		8.53	334
Maine	AE	7.97	335		7.97	335
Grambling St.	SWAC	7.93	336		7.93	336
South Carolina St.	MEAC	7.66	337		7.66	337
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	7.5	338		7.5	338
Morgan St.	MEAC	7.39	339		7.39	339
Incarnate Word	Slnd	7.36	340		7.36	340
San Jose St.	MWC	7.26	341		7.26	341
Presbyterian	BSth	7.22	342		7.22	342
Jackson St.	SWAC	7.18	343		7.18	343
USC Upstate	ASun	7.05	344		7.05	344
Bryant	NEC	7	345		7	345
Chicago St.	WAC	6.61	346		6.61	346
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	6.41	347		6.41	347
Alcorn St.	SWAC	5.52	348		5.52	348
Longwood	BSth	5.17	349		5.17	349
Coppin St.	MEAC	5.16	350		5.16	350
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.8	351		4.8	351

Final Add: Bridges Misses MVP by 0.01 after Nova's Dominant Title Game

Villanova's dominant national championship win was led by Mikal Bridges, who increased his Value Add Basketball ranking by 0.21 during the championship win to 10.46 above a replacement player - leaving him one-hundredth of a point per game behind West Virginia's Jevon Carter as the most valuable player in the country according to www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Meanwhile, Villanova Jalen Brunson was solid but in foul trouble during the title game and dropped just slightly from 9.87 to 9.84, still fifth best in the country. National Player of the Year voters selected Brunson as the best player in America - and it is doubtful the team-oriented Villanova would mind an argument about whether Brunson or Bridges was the best player in America of more than 4,000 players.

While Brunson is the best of the three offensively, he takes away only -0.77 points per 100 trips from opponents, while Bridges is coveted by the NBA for his -2.67 defense and Carter barely held on as the Most Valuable Player in the country through an even better -3.12 defense.

However, as great as Bridges defense is, he said during the post-game interview that he sometimes cannot stop teammate Donte DiVincenzo when they practice. DiVincenzo was voted the tournaments most outstanding player in a performance capped by an all-time finals record with 31 points off the bench against Michigan. That final performance moved him from 97th to 70th in the country despite coming off the bench as the Big East's best 6th man.

For Michigan, Moritz Wagner started hot in the championship but tired and dropped slightly from 29th to 31st in the final rating (of more than 4,000 players). His teammate Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman was fantastic driving paste defenders to move up 12 spots to a final rating as the 57th best player in the country.

While that made for a great duo, no other Michigan player was in the top 250, and as predicted in our projections, they were no match for Villanova, who added the inside dominance of Omari Spellman (77th) and versatile (164th) to give Villanova five players in the top 4% of all players. The only other teams with even four players in the top 4% are Duke, Purdue, and Kansas - so with by far the top duo in the country (no other team had two even in the top 20) and the best top five, it's no wonder www.kenpom.com ranks Villanova as the second best championship team of this century behind only the 2008 Kansas team. In fact, if Memphis had hit any free throws down the stretch in 2008 to deny Kansas the title, Villanova would rate as the best champion of the 21st century.

Here are the new rankings for the Villanova and Michigan players after the championship, with Jevon Carter of West Virginia, left on the list to show how close the final was.

Rank	Player	Team	VACorrect
1	Jevon Carter #2	West Virginia	10.47
2	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	10.46
5	Jalen Brunson #1	Villanova	9.84
31	Moritz Wagner #13	Michigan	7.98
57	Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman #12	Michigan	7.26
70	Donte DiVincenzo #10	Villanova	7.04
77	Omari Spellman #14	Villanova	7.01
164	Eric Paschall #4	Villanova	5.99
275	Duncan Robinson #22	Michigan	5.17
355	Charles Matthews #1	Michigan	4.63
430	Zavier Simpson #3	Michigan	4.18
440	Phil Booth #5	Villanova	4.14
659	Jon Teske #15	Michigan	3.30
919	Jordan Poole #2	Michigan	2.43
1028	Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree #21	Villanova	2.17
1053	Collin Gillespie #2	Villanova	2.10
1236	Isaiah Livers #4	Michigan	1.72
1882	Ibi Watson #23	Michigan	0.76
2089	Eli Brooks #55	Michigan	0.55
2203	Austin Davis #51	Michigan	0.46
2327	Jaaron Simmons #5	Michigan	0.37
2563	Jermaine Samuels #23	Villanova	0.24
9999	Tim Delaney #34	Villanova	0.00

SEC, ACC & Big 12 Get Even Stronger with JUCO Commitments to Mississippi, TCU and NC State

To see game-changers for next basketball season, go to Brad Winton's JUCO Report frequently. Based on his scouting, we projected Jeremy Harris would bring a Value Add of 6.0 to Buffalo, and he was even better at 6.19 to rank in the top 4% of all Division 1 players and take Buffalo to the NCAA tournament.

This year the following teams are already getting a boost of at least a point from JUCO transfers who will step on the court ready to play.

School	JUCO Boost 2019
Ole Miss	6.86
TCU	5.5
NC State	5
Western Kentucky	4.01
Rutgers	3.82
Utah	3.59
Oklahoma	3.06
Mississippi State	2.11
Baylor	1.74
Dayton	1.51
Oregon State	1.43
Missouri State	1.29
VCU	1.22
Boise State	1.19
Texas Tech	1.11
Wichita State	1

Here is Brad's list right now with our Value Add Projections.

Rank	Name	Committed	Projection	Height	School	Position
1	Wendell Mitchell		6.5	6'4	Trinity Valley CC	SG
2	Jordan Brangers		6	6'3	South Plains	SG
3	Yuat Alok	TCU	5.5	6'10	Chipola	PF
4	Derek Funderburke	NC State	5	6'10	Northwest Florida State	F
5	Brian Halums	Ole Miss	4.5	6'5	Itawamba CC	G/F
6	Mohamed Thiam		4.01	6'8	Marshalltown	PF
7	Shaq Carter	Rutgers	3.82	6'9	Eastern Florida State	PF
8	Trevelin Queen	Western Kentucky	3.75	6'6	New Mexico Military	SG
9	Charles Jones Jr	Utah	3.59	6'3	College of Southern Idaho	SG
10	Ivan Aurrecoechea		3.47	6'8	Indian Hills	PF/C
11	Devante Bandoo		3.34	6'3	Hutchinson	SG
12	Andres Feliz		3.19	6'2	Northwest Florida State	PG
13	Kur Kuath	Oklahoma	3.06	6'9	Salt Lake CC	PF
14	Roderick Williams		2.94	6'7	East LA College	G/F
15	Isaiah Tisdale		2.82	6'2	Vincennes University	CG
16	Antun Maricevic		2.71	6'10	Casper College	PF/C
17	Marlon Taylor		2.55	6'6	Panola College	Wing
18	JJ Rhymes		2.45	6'5	Hutchinson	Wing
19	Zach Naylor	Ole Miss	2.36	6'6	Weatherford College	G/F
20	Tremell Murphy		2.2	6'5	Florida Southwestern	Wing
21	Jethro Tshisumpa Mbiya	Mississippi State	2.11	6'10	San Jacinto College	C
22	Nick Marshall		2.02	6'11	Motlow State	C
23	Shane Gatling		1.95	6'4	Indian Hills	SG
24	Ra'Shawn Langston		1.87	6'3	Connors State	SG
25	Darius Allen	Baylor	1.74	6'4	Palm Beach State	SG
26	Danya Kingsby		1.57	6'2	College of Southern Idaho	CG
27	Jhery Matos	Dayton	1.51	6'5	Monroe College	Wing
28	Kylor Kelley	Oregon State	1.43	7'0	Lane CC	C
29	Jermaine Haley		1.36	6'7	Odessa	G/F
30	Willesley Butler		1.33	6'8	Pensacola State	F/C
31	Kabir Mohammed	Missouri State	1.29	6'5	San Jacinto College	G/F
32	Ricky Torres		1.26	6'3	Missouri West Plains	CG
33	Corey Douglas	VCU	1.22	6'9	Tallahassee CC	PF
34	Pat Dembley	Boise State	1.19	6'1	Iowa Western	CG
35	Tray Boyd III		1.15	6'4	Northwest Florida State	SG
36	Andres Ibarguen		1.14	6'7	Trinity Valley CC	PF
37	Deshawn Corprew	Texas Tech	1.11	6'4	South Plains	SG
38	Rashawn Fredericks		1.07	6'6	Motlow State	Wing
39	Terrell Brown		1.06	6'3	City College of San Francisco	SG
40	Brian Warren		1.04	5'11	Tyler JC	PG
41	Bushmen Ebet		1	6'3	Salt Lake CC	SG
42	Jaime Echenique	Wichita State	1	6'11	Trinity Valley CC	C
43	Ke'Sean Davis		0.97	6'7	Seward County	G/F
44	Quentin Jackson	Florida Gulf Coast	0.95	6'3	Tallahassee CC	CG
45	Ted McCree		0.93	6'4	Gillette College	SG
46	Eli Abaev		0.91	6'8	Eastern Florida State	PF
47	Canberk Kus		0.89	6'6	College of Central Florida	Wing
48	Mark Gordon		0.86	6'5	Daytona State	SG
49	Isaiah Crawley		0.83	6'7	Columbia State	PF
50	Isaiah Maurice	New Mexico	0.81	6'10	South Plains	PF
51	Darnell Bulter	Florida Atlantic	0.79	6'4	Seminole State	SG
52	Tyler Cheese		0.77	6'3	Florida Southwestern	CG
53	Javien Williams	Louisiana Monroe	0.74	6'4	Tallahassee CC	G/F
54	Vinnie Shahid	North Dakota State	0.72	5'11	Western Nebraska	PG
55	Ahmed Ali	Kent State	0.72	5'10	Eastern Florida State	PG
56	Austin Trice		0.71	6'7	Wabash Valley College	PF
57	Darnell Cowart		0.7	6'8	Cowley County	PF
58	Channel Banks		0.68	6'4	Sheridan	CG
59	Kaelin Jackson	UMBC	0.64	6'2	Temple College	PG
60	CJ Williamson		0.62	6'6	Chipola	Wing
61	Antonio Williams		0.6	6'2	Indian Hills	G
62	Shamar Bailey	Portland State	0.56	6'7	Hill College	G/F
63	Cedric Jackson		0.53	6'4	Indian River State	SG
64	Jaalam Hill	Cleveland State	0.5	6'7	Southwestern Illinois College	F
65	Will Robinson		0.46	6'5	Gulf Coast State	Wing
66	D'Mauria Jones		0.43	6'4	Antelope Valley College	Wing
67	Jeremy Hayes		0.39	6'3	Howard College	CG
68	Xavier Trent		0.34	6'5	Clarendon	G
69	Travis "TJ" Washington		0.31	6'1	Coffeyville	PG
70	Tyshawn Davis		0.28	6'7	Coastal Alabama - Monroeville	F
71	Matthew Horton	Western Kentucky	0.26	6'11	Shelton State	C
72	Victor Curry		0.22	6'7	Cleveland State	PF
73	Oswald Parker		0.2	6'5	Broward	Wing
74	Robert McCoy		0.2	6'7	San Diego City	Wing
75	Darius Williams	Cal State Bakersfield	0.2	6'8	Paris JC	PF
76	Keandre Cook		0.2	6'5	Odessa	Wing
77	Darron Johnson		0.2	6'2	Western Oklahoma State	SG
78	Edwin Jeudy		0.2	6'7	Gillette College	F
79	Melkisedek Moreaux	Arkansas Little Rock	0.2	6'7	Northeast CC	F
80	Jamel Allen	UMKC	0.2	6'6	Indian Hills	Wing
81	Jaiveon Eaves		0.2	6'3	John A Logan	SG
82	Roydell Brown		0.2	6'5	Southwest Mississippi	Wing
83	Carlos Dotson		0.2	6'7	College of Central Florida	PF
84	Gilbert Thomas		0.2	6'7	Angelina CC	PF
85	Myron Gordon		0.2	6'3	Harcum College	SG
86	TJ Howard		0.2	6'2	Chipola	PG
87	Jay'Quan McCloud	Green Bay	0.2	6'2	Highland CC	SG
88	D-Juan Taylor Hodge		0.2	6'4	Santa Fe College	Wing
89	Trevais Spencer		0.2	6'4	Holmes CC	SG
90	Reece Brooks		0.2	5'10	Clarendon	PG
91	Randy Miller		0.2	6'2	Moberly Area College	SG
92	Josh Jefferson		0.2	6'2	Lake Land College	CG
93	Jahlil Nails	Idaho	0.2	6'5	Navarro	Wing
94	Sayveon McEwen		0.2	5'11	Shawnee CC	PG
95	Irshaad Hunte		0.2	6'7	Central Wyoming	PF
96	Kelvin Robinson		0.2	6'4	Northwest Florida State	CG
97	Marcell Haskett		0.2	6'0	New Mexico	PG
98	Alston Davis		0.2	6'6	Cape Fear CC	Wing
99	Derek St Hilaire	Florida Atlantic	0.2	6'1	Gordon State	CG
100	Devin Hutchinson	Radford	0.2	6'5	Brunswick CC	SG

Nova Should Win With 2 of top 5 Value Add Players; While ACC, SEC & B12 Best Top-to-bottom (italics update after Championship)

(see CBS247 Story above by clicking here)

While Villanova puts two of the Top 5 Value Add Basketball players on the court at 9:20 pm Eastern on TBS, strong tournament showings by conferences boosted West Virginia's Jevon Carter (1st overall as National MVP), Georgia's Yante Maten (3rd overall) and Duke's Marvin Bagley (7th, but 1st overall if not injured) in the final ratings. The three Value Add brackets in ESPN's 94th to 96th percentile all point to a Villanova win tonight:

Replaced this paragraph from the original post because the brackets mentioned improved to the 97th to 98th percentile with Villanova's win. Here are all the approaches we laid out, and as you can see those based on www.valueaddbasketball.com with slight variations for other factors all placed near the top and picked Villanova - whereas choosing to go with teams with more NBA talent (Arizona or Kentucky, Duke to win it all etc.) does not work nearly as well as Value Add Basketball. The very best approach was to use the Value Add rankings and make slight adjustments to either go with worse seeds when Value Add said the two teams were within a point of each other (Upset), adjust for the hottest teams between Feb. 1 and the tournament (Hottest) or adjust for the best and most experienced guards (Experienced). www.kenpom.com final ratings calculate Villanova as the second best champion of the century behind only 2008 Kansas.

The second method (hottest) is the only one that projects a closer game - since Michigan is the hottest team in the country - but the fact that Villanova is the only team in the country with four top 100 players (out of 4,068) and has two top five players when no other team has two in the top 20 point to a solid Villanova win.

Team - Top 2 Players Rank and then Names and Jersey Numbers

Villanova, 2 & 5, Mikal Bridges #25, Jalen Brunson #1 (also top 100 Omari Spellman and Donte DiVincenzo)

Duke, 7 & 23, Marvin Bagley #35, Wendell Carter #34

Texas Tech, 17 & 35, Keenan Evans #12, Zhaire Smith #2

Purdue, 27 & 56, Carsen Edwards #3, Dakota Mathias #31

Michigan St., 39 & 58, Cassius Winston #5, Miles Bridges #22

Michigan, 29 & 69, Moritz Wagner #13, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman #12

Texas Christian, 40 & 61, Kenrich Williams #34, Vladimir Brodziansky #10

While the Big Ten and Big East (more in-depth Value Add stories on CBS Dodds on Sports) face off for the title after solid tournaments, our in-depth breakdown of every conference from top to bottom shows that of the eight conferences that are at least five points better than the average conference they place right in the middle.

Bad Conference Performances for Pac-12 and American. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Gary Clark (14th) and Arizona's Deandre Ayton (11th) dropped out of the Top 10 as the American and Pac-12 tournament struggles lowered the calculation on how tough of opponents each had to overcome throughout the season. In the American, 2-seed Cincinnati, 4-seed Wichita State and 6-seed Houston only won two games between them, and Temple was the only conference team invited to the NIT where they lost their opener (albeit to eventual NIT champ Penn State). Seven of the eight Pac-12 teams invited to postseason play lost in either their first NCAA game or second NIT game - with only Utah salvaging some respect with a run to the NIT title game. (Breakdown of every team in every conference here).

ACC, Big 12 and SEC Dominate Top to Bottom. Meanwhile, players surged in the Final Value Add rankings in the three conferences that dominated play. The full-breakdown matching how the No. 1 team in each conference would match up with the No. 1 in the other 31 conferences, and No. 2 vs. No. 2 etc. projects the ACC would be favored in 327 match-ups and underdogs in only 10, with the Big 12 just behind at 282-18 and the SEC at 314-23. While the Big Ten and Big East were next best, top-to-bottom there was a gap between the top three and the Big Ten and Big East, and then between those teams and all the others.

A note: Bagley surged back up to 7th after missing four games due to injury. If he has played all 37 games instead of just 33, his projected Value Add would be 10.80 to make him the most valuable player in the country.

Rnk	Player	Team	Value	Conf	Ht	Class
1	Jevon Carter #2	West Virginia	10.47	B12	6-foot-2	4 Sr
2	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	10.25	BE	6-foot-7	3 Jr
3	Yante Maten #1	Georgia	10.24	SEC	6-foot-8	4 Sr
4	Keita Bates-Diop #33	Ohio St.	10.06	B10	6-foot-7	3 Jr
5	Jalen Brunson #1	Villanova	9.87	BE	6-foot-2	3 Jr
6	Trae Young #11	Oklahoma	9.73	B12	6-foot-2	1 Fr
7	Marvin Bagley #35	Duke	9.64	ACC	6-foot-11	1 Fr
8	Juwan Morgan #13	Indiana	9.47	B10	6-foot-7	3 Jr
9	Dean Wade #32	Kansas St.	9.32	B12	6-foot-10	3 Jr
10	Devonte' Graham #4	Kansas	9.19	B12	6-foot-2	4 Sr
11	Deandre Ayton #13	Arizona	8.98	P12	7-foot-1	1 Fr
12	John Konchar #55	IUPU Fort Wayne	8.97	Sum	6-foot-5	3 Jr
13	Dylan Windler #3	Belmont	8.94	OVC	6-foot-7	3 Jr
14	Gary Clark #11	Cincinnati	8.89	Amer	6-foot-8	4 Sr
15	James Thompson #2	Eastern Michigan	8.84	MAC	6-foot-10	3 Jr
16	Jeff Roberson #11	Vanderbilt	8.77	SEC	6-foot-6	4 Sr
17	Keenan Evans #12	Texas Tech	8.75	B12	6-foot-3	4 Sr
18	Jonathan Stark #2	Murray St.	8.74	OVC	6-foot-0	4 Sr
19	Devon Hall #0	Virginia	8.67	ACC	6-foot-5	4 Sr
20	Mohamed Bamba #4	Texas	8.61	B12	6-foot-11	1 Fr
21	Luke Maye #32	North Carolina	8.58	ACC	6-foot-8	3 Jr
22	Trevon Bluiett #5	Xavier	8.55	BE	6-foot-6	4 Sr
23	Wendell Carter #34	Duke	8.5	ACC	6-foot-10	1 Fr
24	Jock Landale #34	St. Mary's	8.28	WCC	6-foot-11	4 Sr
25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #22	Kentucky	8.16	SEC	6-foot-6	1 Fr

Our forecasts of a Villanova Title were among the 16.3% of all brackets that chose them to win, so a win would improve the three brackets below ahead of even the 96th percentile, 95th percentile and 94th percentile in the current standings. Only 3.8% picked Michigan, so an upset by them tonight could propel many of those brackets above the brackets presented. The 80% of brackets that picked one of the other teams to win the tournament can only drop after tonight's game (rest of blog with average wins picked for every team and updates here).

Team/Seed	Ave. Lines	Win Title
1Villanova	3.7	16.30%
3Michigan	2.3	3.80%
1Kansas	3.1
11Loyola-Chicago	0.5
1UVA	3.4
2UNC	2.9
2Duke	2.9
3Michigan State	2.7
2Purdue	2.6
1Xavier	2.6
2Cincinnati	2.5
4Gonzaga	2.2
4Arizona	2.1
3Tennessee	1.9
3Texas Tech	1.7
4Auburn	1.5
5West Virginia	1.5
4Wichita State	1.4
5Kentucky	1.4
6Florida	1.3
5Clemson	1.2
5OSU	1.1
6Miami	1.0
6Houston	0.9
6TCU	0.9
10Butler	0.8
10Texas	0.7
8Missouri	0.7
8Creighton	0.6
9NC State	0.6
10Oklahoma	0.6
7URI	0.6
7Texas A&M	0.6
9Alabama	0.6
7Nevada	0.6
8Virginia Tech	0.6
10Providence	0.6
8Seton Hall	0.6
9Florida State	0.6
7Arkansas	0.5
9Kansas State	0.5
11San Diego State	0.4
12New Mexico State	0.4
11Syracuse	0.4
11St. Bonaventure	0.3
12South Dakota State	0.3
12Davidson	0.3
12Murray State	0.2
14SF Austin	0.2
13Marshall	0.2
13Charleston	0.2
13Buffalo	0.1
14Wright State	0.1
15Georgia State	0.1
13UNCG	0.1
14Montana	0.1
14Bucknell	0.1
16Penn	0.1
15CSU Fullerton	0.1
15Lipscomb	0.1
15Iona	0.1
16Texas Southern	0.1
16UMBC	0.1
16Radford	0.1

42 Catholic Schools of 351 D1 Basketball Programs

Received a great question today - with two Catholic Universities in the Final Four - how many Division 1 programs are Catholic? The answer is 42 out of 351.

Rank	Team (42 Catholic Teams)	Catholic Affiliation	Conf
1	Villanova 1	Augustinian	BE
10	Gonzaga 4	Jesuit	WCC
15	Xavier 1	Jesuit	BE
25	Seton Hall 8	Diocesan	BE
30	Loyola Chicago 11	Jesuit	MVC
31	Creighton 8	Jesuit	BE
32	Saint Mary's	De La Salle Christian Brothers	WCC
35	Notre Dame	Holy Cross	ACC
56	Marquette	Jesuit	BE
64	Providence 10	Dominican	BE
68	St. Bonaventure 11	Franciscan	A10
76	Boston College	Jesuit	ACC
79	St. John's	Vincentian	BE
97	Georgetown	Jesuit	BE
101	DePaul	Vincentian	BE
116	Saint Joseph's	Jesuit	A10
130	San Diego	Independent	WCC
131	Canisius	Catholic	MAAC
139	Iona 15	Christian Brothers	MAAC
147	Saint Louis	Jesuit	A10
153	San Francisco	Jesuit	WCC
158	La Salle	De La Salle Christian Brothers	A10
173	Dayton	Society of Mary	A10
195	Seattle	Jesuit	WAC
202	Duquesne	Spiritans	A10
205	Niagara	Vincentian	MAAC
213	Fairfield	Jesuit	MAAC
216	St. Francis PA	Franciscan	NEC
217	Manhattan	De La Salle Christian Brothers	MAAC
218	Saint Peter's	Jesuit	MAAC
231	Loyola Marymount	Jesuit	WCC
240	Mount St. Mary's	Diocesan	NEC
272	Portland	Holy Cross	WCC
274	Santa Clara	Jesuit	WCC
290	Holy Cross	Holy Cross	Pat
293	Fordham	Jesuit	A10
302	Siena	Franciscan	MAAC
306	Sacred Heart	Diocesan	NEC
313	St. Francis NY	Franciscan	NEC
321	Detroit	Jesuit	Horz
322	Loyola MD	Jesuit	Pat
342	Incarnate Word	Sisters of Charity	Slnd