What a finale in semifinal Pool L, with Arizona hosting the final two pool games.
The two league runner ups in the 2025 season, Philadelphia and Seattle, have the best shot, but Arizona is alive.
Seattle took control with two home wins — first a 5-2 win over the Phillies, and then a thrilling 2-1, 11-inning win over Arizona. Weston Wilson singled home ghost runner Rob Refsnyder to start the bottom of the 11th with a walk-off win.
Both teams had loaded the bases in the 10th but failed to score. Earlier in the game, both teams had runners thrown out at home trying to score from second base — something that happens less than 10 percent of the time.
Now the scenarios are pretty simple.
If Seattle wins the next game at Arizona, the Mariners clinch the pool with a 3-1 record. Even if the Phillies could eventually match that record, Seattle owns the tiebreaker after outscoring Philadelphia 6-5 in their two games. So if Seattle wins, there is no need to play the final Arizona-Philadelphia game.
If Seattle loses, then Philadelphia will play Arizona in the finale. A Phillies win would make Philadelphia the only 3-1 team and clinch the pool.
But if Arizona wins both games, the Diamondbacks would almost certainly advance. Both of Arizona's losses were by just one run, so if the Diamondbacks win twice, all three teams would finish 2-2. As long as Arizona wins at least one of those games by more than one run, it would win the run-differential tiebreaker.
There is only one scenario in which all three teams finish 2-2 and Arizona does not advance: if the Diamondbacks win both remaining games by exactly one run. In that case, Seattle would take the pool with a +1 run differential, Arizona would finish at 0, and Philadelphia at -1.
So Arizona has the toughest path — it must win twice — but if it does, it will almost certainly be the team advancing.
The Mariners’ No. 4 pitcher, Bryce Miller, with a below-average PB 2-6 card and many of Seattle’s top relievers needing rest, pulled off the stunning outing of the year with 7 scoreless innings.
That means the Mariners now need only one of their PB 2-8 starters, Bryan Woo or George Kirby, to beat Arizona to win Semifinal Pool L.
Cal Raleigh continued to look more like the 50-home-run catcher who helped the Mariners win 90 games last year than the slumping .150 hitter for the struggling 2026 Mariners in MLB.
The Phillies are still technically in first place at 2-1, but even if they beat Arizona to finish pool play 3-1, they were outscored by the Mariners 6-5 in their two head-to-head games. That means Seattle advances if the Mariners finish tied with Philadelphia.
And, of course, Arizona is still alive.
So we’ll play Arizona at Seattle next, before Arizona hosts both teams for its final two games.
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