After Hundreds of Simulations, It Comes Down to UCLA 1972 vs Indiana 1976

UCLA 1972 — the only back-to-back undefeated team in college basketball history — improved to 8–0 against the greatest Value Add Basketball Game teams of all time and will now face the last remaining undefeated team, Indiana 1976, for our all-time title.

Duke 2001 was a worthy All-Time Final Four opponent. Our recent advanced calculations of the top 50 teams of all time show that Shane Battier is one of only three players to lead two top-10 all-time teams (along with Bill Walton and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar). Battier’s two free throws with five minutes remaining created an extra possession while pulling Duke within 64–59. Battier scored again with 1:30 to play to cut the lead to 69–63, but Duke could get no closer as UCLA pulled away for a 74–65 win to advance to the all-time championship.

In the end, Bill Walton’s nine blocked shots gave UCLA a decisive edge in the paint. UCLA finished with 28 two-point baskets compared to Duke’s 21, which proved to be the difference in the game. Walton led all scorers with 20 points. In nearly every other phase, Duke played UCLA even. Duke held a slight 5–4 edge in three-pointers, made two more free throws (8–9 shooting), and used strong team rebounding to match UCLA 32–32 on the boards. UCLA had one other very slight edge in forcing 15 turnovers while Duke force 14, and both teams committed 16 fouls, and both rosters featured five future NBA players.

The 1972 UCLA team improves to 8–0 and is now one game away from winning back-to-back titles, having won our original tournament of the first 96 teams created in the Value Add Basketball Game. They are now on the verge of winning the tournament to determine the best team among all 300 teams created to date, five years later.

The 2001 Duke team falls to 5–2 against elite competition, with their only other loss coming in an upset against Paul Pierce’s 1997 Kansas team, alongside five wins over other all-time great teams.

The 1976 Indiana team, which will face UCLA in the all-time title game, features the best defense of any team in our game. Indiana is 6–1, allowing just 54 points per game against the greatest teams in history, with their only loss coming in a 70–68 stunner against Draymond Green’s Michigan State team in the original 96-team tournament.

While Kareem’s UCLA team still ranks as having the best individual cards in the game, these are the top two teams based on the results of hundreds of Value Add Basketball Games played to date, making this a true No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup — with no Cinderella story involved. 

Pos	Duke 2001	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	NBA?,Season Stats, Ht
1-PG	Jay Williams	12	2	3	0	0	2	1	0	2	nba,21.6 Pts, 3.3 reb,6'2
2-SG	Nate James	19	3	5	0	0	3	1	1	2	12.3 Pts, 5.2 reb,6'6
3-SG	Shane Battier	8	0	3	2	2	5	1	6	2	nba,19.9 Pts, 7.3 reb,6'8
4-PF	Mike Dunleavy	4	0	1	2	3	8	1	1	3	nba,12.6 Pts, 5.7 reb,6'9
5-C	Carlos Boozer	10	0	4	2	2	9	0	0	2	nba,13.3 Pts, 6.5 reb,6'9
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	NBA?,Season Stats, Ht
1-PG	Chris Duhon	4	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	1	nba,7.2 Pts, 3.2 reb,6'1
2-SG	Matt Christensen	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1.6 Pts, 2.3 reb,6'10
3-SG	Nick Horvath	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.8 Pts, 2.3 reb,6'10
4-PF	Casey Sanders	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.5 Pts, 1.8 reb,6'11
5-C	Andre Sweet	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	4.1 Pts, 2.6 reb,6'6
	15 Turnovers	65	5	21	8	9	32	4	8	16
Pos	UCLA 1972	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	NBA?,Season Stats, Ht
1-PG	Greg Lee	9	0	4	1	2	1	2	0	1	nba,8.7 Pts, 2.0 Reb,6'4
2-SG	Henry Bibby	7	0	3	1	1	4	3	0	3	nba,15.7 Pts, 3.5 Reb,6'1
3-SG	Larry Farmer	10	1	3	1	2	3	0	0	2	10.7 Pts, 5.5 Reb,6'5
4-PF	Jamaal Wilkes	8	1	2	1	2	5	2	1	2	nba,13.5 Pts, 8.2 Reb,6'6
5-C	Bill Walton	20	0	9	2	3	11	0	9	2	nba,21.1 Pts, 15.5 Reb,6'11
Pos	Bench	Pts	3pt	2pt	FT	Att	Reb	Stl	Blk	Fl	NBA?,Season Stats, Ht
1-PG	Andy Hill	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2.7 Pts, 0.8 Reb,6'0
2-SG	Jon Chapman	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	1.6 Pts, 1.6 Reb,6'5
3-SG	Tommy Curtis	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	4.1 Pts, 2.1 Reb,5'11
4-PF	Larry Hollyfield	4	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	2	7.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb,6'4
5-C	Swen Nater	7	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	nba,6.7 Pts, 4.8 Reb,6'11
	14 Turnovers	74	4	28	6	10	32	8	10	16

Duke 2001 On Verge of Replacing UCLA 1972 as All-Time #1 After Thrashing UNLV

 In what looked like a very event match-up of heavyweights, Carlos Boozer drew the 4th foul on Larry Johnson with 17:28 to play and completed a 3-point play to make it 45-30 Duke. Johnson (18 points, 10 rebounds) survived the rest of the game, but had to guard the jump shooter Mike Dunleavy the rest of the game to avoid the 5th foul.

Duke crashed the offensive boards, with all four starters (not point guard Jay Williams) getting seven or more rebounds for a dominant 42-26 edge on the boards.

Shane Battier (26 points, 9 rebounds) hit three 3-pointers early, and Boozer (24, game-high 12 rebounds) led such a dominant 78-65 win that Duke's all-time rating in our game improved to 15.4, passing Kentucky and Kansas teams and coming within 0.1 of catching bill Walton's UCLA as the top team of all time. The scoresheet from the game is at the bottom of this blog, after the updated all-time Top 25 and teams that could make the list soon.

Click on the game to play yourself - it contains everything you need to play the Value Add Basketball game, which lets you pit any of 136 great all-time college teams against each other. To pick your two teams it is best to click on this Google doc and print the pages of the teams you want (each team is one page). I track my games on this google sheet, but play your own for free!

 

All-Time	Team	Year	Player	Won	Lost	Score	Allow	Rating	Conf
1	UCLA	1972	Bill Walton	6	0	72	62	15.5	Pac-12
2	Duke	2001	Shane Battier	3	0	82.3	71	15.4	ACC
3	Kansas	2008	Mario Chalmers	5	1	74.7	56	15.2	B-12
4	Kentucky	1996	Antoine Walker	2	1	72	69.3	13.6	SEC
5	Villanova	2018	Mikal Bridges	7	2	79.4	70.3	10.8	BEast
6	Kansas	1997	Paul Pierce	3	0	75.3	60.3	10.1	B-12
7	North Carolina	2005	Sean May	3	2	72.2	64.4	9.6	ACC
8	Indiana	1976	Scott May	3	1	71.3	59.8	9.6	B10
9	Ohio St.	1960	Jerry Lucas	2	1	84	76.3	8.9	B10
10	Connecticut	2004	Ben Gordon	5	2	73.5	64	8.8	BEast
11	Gonzaga (WCC)	2017	Nigel Williams-Goss	3	3	69.8	63	8.7	Mid-Maj
12	Houston	1968	Elvin Hayes	3	1	73	63.8	8.5	Amer
13	Virginia	2019	Kyle Guy	4	1	72.6	65.4	8.3	ACC
14	Duke	2010	Jon Scheyer	5	2	74	66.7	7.9	ACC
15	Michigan St.	2000	Mateen Cleaves	3	0	88.3	78.3	7.3	B10
16	Baylor	2021	Jared Butler	2	2	86	78.5	7.1	B-12
17	Louisville	2013	Russ Smith	2	1	74	66.3	7	ACC
18	North Carolina	1982	Michael Jordan	5	1	68.8	65	6.7	ACC
19	Duke	1992	Christian Laettner	1	2	71.5	64.5	6.6	ACC
20	Cincinnati	1960	Oscar Robertson	1	2	74	78	6.2	Amer
21	UCLA	1967	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	2	1	83	87	5.6	Pac-12
22	DePaul	1980	Mark Aguirre	3	0	80.3	67.7	5.6	BEast
23	UNLV (MWC)	1991	Larry Johnson	1	2	72.7	76.3	5.4	Mid-Maj
24	Arkansas	1994	Corliss Williamson	0	2	72	75	5.3	SEC
25	North Carolina St.	1974	David Thompson	2	1	72	72.7	5.1	ACC

Arkansas is the only top 25 team that has not played three games yet. If they lose, Carsen Edwards 2018 Purdue team should slide into #25. However, Richard Hamilton's UConn is #31 but has only played one game, so could easily be ranked with two good showings. 

We were planning on Arkansas playing Shaq's LSU next for an all-SEC showing, but may change to a UConn vs. Arkansas match-up to see if Arkansas can prove they belong or if UConn wins to get close or in - then have them play their third game. Once UConn and Arkansas have played three games each, all 38 current top teams will have played at least three games.

If you add 21 to the rating you would have a rough equivalent to an SRS or KenPom ratings so we'd expect UCLA or Duke to beat an average team by about 36 points, but beat an "average great team" in this game by 15.

Best Team in History? Duke 2001 Rallies Last 2 Marquette All-Americans

Just a few more days until the www.valueaddbasketball.com ratings of current players are updated ... but in the meantime this Value Add Basketball Game may have featured my favorite historical team against the team that looks to me like it might be the best in history based on their player cards in the game.

As for my favorite historical team, the 1971 Marquette combo of All-American point guard Dean Meminger and dominant center Jim Chones put a scare into overall 2-seed Duke. Duke's fast pace in the game adds 3 possessions, which is why possessions 47, 46 and 45 are written in on the top of the sheet. Marquette led most of the way, leading 45-41 with only 13:50 (23 possessions) left in the game.

The actual 1971 Marquette team was 29-1, losing only their final game in the tournament against Ohio State by 1 point after a controversial 5th foul was called against Meminger with 5 minutes to play. Chones started the next year 20-0 before leaving for the ABA to finish with a 49-1 career record.

In our game Chones led the game in rebounds with a double-double (12 points, 10 rebounds) while Meminger (top steal range in the game with 11-20, meaning he steals from all players on a dice roll of 31) and popular TV analyst Jay Williams gave an epic battle at point guard. Both disrupted the opposing offense with Meminger's five steals and Williams six steals.

The the game repeated history when Meminger fouled out and Williams took over, hitting three 3-pointers en route to a 25-point game and an 80-69 win to move Duke 2001 to the Elite 8 of the tournament.

While Duke's four losses were not as good as Marquette's one loss season in real life, that was against one of the most rugged ACC seasons ever. They tied their hated rival UNC for the regular season title, and then destroyed them 79-53 in the ACC title game as a sign of things to come.

In the Final 4 they trailed another great ACC foe Maryland 17-39, only to show off the largest comeback in Final 4 history to win 95-84, and beat Arizona for the title shortly after Lute Olsen's wife passed away

Like 1971 Marquette, 2001 Duke had a second All-American, with Shane Battier (17 points, 9 rebounds in our game). Both Battier and Carlos Boozer (17 points, 7 rebounds) both had a couple of clutch blocked shots as well.

As great as Duke looked in this game, their Elite 8 game could be a tough draw. They get either last year's national champs from Baylor who looked dominant with a 23 point win in the first round, or Isaiah Thomas' 1981 champs from Indiana.

Our set up below is from my walking desk overlooking Milwaukee, across the street from Marquette.