Sunday, December 29, 2024

Updated Today on Men's and Women's all-time basketball tournament

 Today we will be playing some more of our all-time basketball tournament and reporting scores here, but we are posting this now because we want it to appear below the big update we have coming on our all-time mock draft.

Saturday, December 28, 2024

UCLA 1975 Advances as Value Add point spreads continue incredible accuracy

In our second straight game the new great DYNASTY TEAM in our tournament survived an early foul out by their center to beat the new team in the game because one their PLAYERS is not ranked by the NBA as one of the greatest 75 players in history.

In the ratings on this google sheet when we create the teams, the 1975 UCLA team is a +11 and their opponent the 1960 Detroit Mercy team is a -3, making UCLA a 14-point favorite in the game. Based on www.kenpom.com calculations, a 14-point favorite has about a 91% chance to win. Ralph Drollinger, the 7-foot-2 center from John Wooden's last NCAA champs, fouled out early.

The 14-seed Detroit kept it closer against the 3-seed UCLA, with super star Dave DeBusschere scoing with 7:40 (13 possessions) left to cut the UCLA lead to 55-52. On the next trip, Larry Hughes hit a 3-pointer, and the game was tied 55-55 with a chance for the big upset. However, UCLA then went on a 12-0 run over the next over the next 10 possessions to put the game out of reach en route to a 72-60 win.

The last of the 4 big underdogs added because they had an all-time great player is Bowling Green, that will go in as a 12-point underdog with just a 13% chance against the 1978 Kentucky team. Here are all 8 match-ups: 

Favored by   Chance  Result      Favorite    Year   Rating  Underdog          Year     Rating
2499%W 80-66Cincinnati196217Syracuse1966-7
1895%W 85-65UCLA196415Villanova1950-3
1895%TBDKentucky201216Dartmouth1944-2
1491%W 72-60UCLA197511Detroit Mercy1960-3
1389%TBDUCLA196714Kansas19521
1287%TBDKentucky197810Bowling Green1963-2
1081%TBDDuke199211Connecticut20111
671%TBDUNLV199111North Carolina20175

The chance of winning has proven very accurate in the 274 games between great teams with a favorite have proven incredibly accurate - not too few or too many upsets - based on the chance our predicted spread based on the team ratings would predict. 

UCLA was the 17th team to be a 13 to 17 point favorite, meaning www.kenpom.com would predict a 91% chance of winning - and in fact their win makes the favorites in those games 15-2, or 88%.

As you can see from our tracking table, team's that are 1 to 6 point favorites are expected to win 65% of the time, and in fact those teams are just a few wins short of that at 94-60 for 61%. A team that is favored by 7 to 12 averages winning 80% in real basketball, and in the game they are right there at 71-17 or 81%. And finally teams that are favored by 18 or more should win about 96% of their games, or 24 of 25, and so far they are 15-0 in our game.

The interesting thing is that while the chances of winning are amazingly accurate for favorite teams, the margins of victory for one group of teams has been closer than expected - with teams favored by 13-17 points per game winning by an average of only 7.5 points per game during their 15-2 start.
 
Favorite                                                                   WL      Act W%  Expect W%  ppg  Allow
Games where teams are favored by 1 to 6946061%65%75.371.7
Games where one team was favored by 7 to 12711781%80%76.367.8
Games where one team was favored by 13 to 1715288%91%77.870.3
Games with an 18 to 29 point favorite150100%96%75.158.3
Total Favorite All Games1957971% 
 
       
22 Games with no favorite220NANA76.767.6

In the tournament that leaves Mike Thurmond, one of four players who got his team in this tournament by breaking into the NBA's all-time top 75 players list, with the last of four chances for a "great player" team to beat one of the four new dynasties addedtto the game in 1978 Kentucky, which will be a 12-point favorite and thus have an 87% chance to advance and potentially face another great  Kentucky team and Anthony Davis in the Elite 8.

Likewise if Kareem Abdul-Jabbar can lead 1967 UCLA past Kansas 1952, they will face the first undefeated UCLA champ in the 1964 Bruins from just before he arrived on campus.




Here are the players from both teams.

Detroit Mercy 1960             Ht        Actual Season Stats                           
Ray Albee5'914.4 Pts,4.2 Reb
Larry Hughes6'411.7 Pts,8.1 Reb
George Heger6'35.0 Pts,5.4 Reb
Dave DeBusschere - star6'6NBA,25.6 Pts,20.0 Reb
Charlie North6'619.8 Pts,14.2 Reb
Tom Villemure5'92.1 Pts,0.3 Reb
Frank Chickowski6'14.3 Pts,3.1 Reb
Bob Wright6'41.4 Pts,1.5 Reb
John Parker6'41.2 Pts,2.1 Reb
Dick Dylus6'81.3 Pts,0.7 Reb
UCLA 1975HtActual Season Stats
Pete Trgovich6'410.2 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 2.9 Ast
Dave Meyers6'8NBA,18.3 Pts, 7.9 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Marques Johnson6'7NBA,11.6 Pts, 7.1 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Richard Washington6'11NBA,15.9 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 2.2 Ast
Ralph Drollinger7'2NBA,8.8 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Jim Spillane5'114.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Andre McCarter6'3NBA,7.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 5.0 Ast
Casey Corliss6'63.1 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Wilbert Olinde6'73.1 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Brett Vroman7'03.5 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.5 Ast



Friday, December 27, 2024

Despite Rim Protecting Star early Foul Out, Cincy Stakes Claim to Best Ever in Beating Syracuse

In light of their best player Paul Hogue fouling out to only play 22 of 57 possessions in the game, and going up against one of the greatest players and scoring point guards in history in Dave Bing who led this Syracuse team to 99 points per game in 1966, the Cincinnati 1962 team staked their claim as the best team in history with an 80-66 win in their Value Add Basketball Game debut.

Jim Boeheim was the only major college men's coach to top 1000 wins besides coach K, but it was his college roommate Dave Bing who was named as one of the 75 greatest by the NBA.

Our games start in a 20-20 tie with 22 possessions assumed already played, when Vaughn Harper drew a 5th foul despite Hogue "playing to avert the foul, Syracuse took the lead 43-42, but the Bearcats responded by stopping Syracuse's high powered offense on the next 13 possessions to take a 54-43 lead. Teams average about 1.0 points per trip down the court, but the Bearcats only allowed Syracuse 0.81 points per trip.  Not on the scoresheet that Syracuse 1966 games are so high paced that both teams get an extra 10 possessions because of their fast pace.
 
Team                     Dunk Range   Pts     Possessions    Per Trip
Syracuse 196651-5146570.81
Cincinnati 196251-6660561.07

Except for a few high paced teams like Syracuse, Value Add Basketball Games actually last 44 to 53 possessions in actual play depending on how many of the last nine possessions (fine 5 minutes) result in an extra possession due to a fast break style or foul, and since that happened three times in this game in addition to the 10 extra possessions at the beginning based on Syracuse's cards, that totalled 57 possessions actually played (remember this is really a 77 possession game since we assumed that 22 possessions at the beginning of each game resulted in a 20-20 tie before we start rolling the dice).

The reason Cincinnati had one extra possession is that we always have the team leading the game by more than a few points hold the ball on the final possession rather than try to run up the score.

Strategy Tip: Avoiding a Foul

Hogue was in foul trouble so playing to avoid the foul which meant the following three adjustments are made:

The defender does not commit a foul on his own card but the three possible four possible foul numbers - 33-36 - all turn into made baskets.

The player avoiding the foul also cannot attempt a steal in the 11-16,31 possible steal numbers OR for Hogue more importantly not attempt a blocked shot on the 21-26, 32 numbers all of which are normally blocked shots for Hogue.

The only way to commit a foul despite this strategy is if the offensive player you are guarding draws a foul on the 20-sided die, Therefore Hogue started guarding George Hicker who only has one foul drawn number (10) on the 20-sided die, instead of Vaughn Harper (9-11 draws foul) or Val Reid (10-12) who both have three foul numbers. However, when Hicker took his normal rest on possessions 37-31 Hogue was back on Harper, and with 32 possessions left Harper drew the 5th foul.

Even without Hogue, the Bearcats have so many dominant, physical players, that they still dominated the Board 45-33 behind 10 rebounds each by George Wilson and Tom Thacker.

Thacker was the MVP of the game for his defense on Bing. Thacker is one of only a few of the 3000+ players in our game to have steals and blocks on all 6 numbers of each - so when the ball goes to the opposing player on an 8-sided die roll of 2, Thacker steals it on 11-16 or blocks a shot on 21-26 - so one third of every time the opponent tries to score.

The rules are different when a star player gets the ball on a 6,7 or 8 as it is considered team defense and any defensive player can steal or block on any player BUT on far fewer rolls On team defense:

Roll of
11 - only a defender with 11-13 or better steals
12 - only a defender with 11-16 steals.
13 - only a defender with 11-16 AND 31 steals.
14-16 or 31 - NOT a steal if 8-sided die was 6, 7 or 8.
21 - only a defender with 21-23 or better blocks shot.
22 - only a defender with 21-26 blocks shot.
23 - only a defender with 21-26 AND 31 blocks shot.
24-26 or 32 - NOT a block if 8-sided die was 6, 7 or 8.

In addition, the entire Bearcats defense is an elite -5 on adjusting opponents dunks, which meant Syracuse only got a bucket at the hoop on a roll of 51 (Normal Syracuse dunk range of 51-59, minus 5 for Cincinnati defense to get to 51-53, then minus another two because the Cincinnati 51-59 PLUS the really bad Syracuse defense of +5 actually meant Cincinnati was two numbers higher than the maximum 51-66 on the dunk chart, and if we have to lower one team by 2 to fit the maximum 51-66 dunk range the we lower the other team by 2 as well.

So Bing did get free some, and in fact had a game high 21 points, but Thacker's incredible defense held him well below is 28.4 ppg average.
 
PosSyracuse 1966, #198 all-timePts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFl  Actual Season   
1-PGFrank Nicoletti3011241056'2,1.9pt
2-SGDave Bing21190061046'3,NBA^28.4pt
3-SFJim Boeheim5110040046'4,14.6pt
4-PFGeorge Hicker13053434226'2,15.1pt
5-CVaughn Harper5021293436'4,9pt
1-PGRichard Dean4020000016'6,12.9pt
2-SGRichard Cornwall6111270015'10,6.7pt
3-SFSam Penceal2010000016'3,3.8pt
4-PFNorman Goldsmith2010000026'3,3.4pt
5-CVal Reid5013400016'9,3.2pt
 Totals66324914339624 
            
PosCincinnati 1962, #2 all-timePts3pt2ptFTAttRebStlBlkFlActual Season
1-PGTony Yates110191154026'1,8.2pt
2-SGTom Thacker122146102516'2,NBA^11.0pt
3-SFRon Bonham17146751236'5,NBA^14.3pt
4-PFGeorge Wilson92113101436'8,NBA^9.2pt
5-CPaul Hogue8040070256'9,NBA^16.8pt
1-PGTom Sizer5110010016'2,2.7pt
2-SGLarry Shingleton8040040025'10,3.9pt
3-SFFred Dierking8121110016'6,4.1pt
4-PFDale Heidotting2010020016'8,3.1pt
            
 Totals8071921284581319

Boeheim Leads Fast Pace Syracuse in Upset Bid vs. Cincinnati

 Jim Boeheim ran a disciplined 2-3 zone to take Syracuse to championships, but as a player with all time great Dave Bing the 1966 Syracuse team road a "defense optional" style to average 99 points per game to take the Orange Men to their first Final 8 in nine years.

Even No. 2 Vanderbilt could not slow them down during the season, though Vandy did survive a 113-98.

This is the 2nd of 4 games pitting a team added to the game because they were part of the 10 greatest dynasties ever (Cincinnati, the 1-seed) vs. four teams added because one of their players has broken into the NBA top 75 players of all time - in this case 16-seed Syracuse's case Dave Bing.

Note at the bottom of Syracuse's team sheet that an extra 10 possessions will be played because of the number of extra possessions Syracuse created due to their fast pace. As shown in the bracket at the bottom, the winner of this game gets the winner of the 8 v 9 game between UNLV 1991 and UNC 2017.

Cincinnati already had the 1960 team of Oscar Robertson in the Value Add Basketball Game, but this team with their next batch of stars comes into the game as the No. 2 ranked team in our entire game.

The 2-seed right behind them, UCLA's undefeated team from two years later, was already impressive in the first "great team against great player" match-up when they beat Villanova 85-65.

Cincinnati has a +17 rating, which combined with Syracuse's -7 makes Cincy a 24-point favorite in the game which would make an upset the biggest upset yet in our 305 games played since the invention of the game. DePaul 1981 with Mark Aguire and Terry Cummings won despite being 18-point underdogs against Kareem's UCLA teams to capture the biggest upset yet.




1964 UCLA Rallies With 31-10 Run to Pull Away from Villanova

 Villanova'a inside combo of Brooks Ricca (18 points, 11 rebounds) and one of the NBA's greatest 75 players of all-time Paul Arizin took a 55-54 lead with 10 minutes to play to bring back memories of Nova's stunning upset of Georgetown in the 1985 title game.

However this would not be a 15-seed over 2-seed, and UCLA put together the greatest 10-minute run we recall in the game. The amazing 31-10 run to close the game actually meant UCLA's 1964 squad, the first Bruins team to go undefeated go win the first of 10 titles in 12 years actually covered the 18-point spread. 

The future NBA backcourt of Gail Goodrich Jr. (19 points, 5 steals) and Walt Hazzard (25 points) dominated the Nova backcourt 44-14 points, 7-2 in steals and led the Bruins to win the turnover battle 16-8.

Even though Ricca and Arizin combined for 21.rebounds, the rest of the team had only 6 rebounds as they lost the boards 38-27. Arizin was national player of the year in college and the acted 16,000 NBA points to retire as the 3rd leading scorer in history - amazing since he was cut from his high school team.

Since these two are among 12 newly created teams, we are using the sheets run yesterday until we create the actual card. The photos show how we wrote down who was at what position on the score sheet.

 The top sheet is the final with all info recorded. 





Thursday, December 26, 2024

The Return of College Basketball's Best: Boeheim, Smith, McGuire & the Great New Dynasties Compete

Favorite   YrStar (all-time top 75)       vs.RnkUnderdogYr    Star (all-time rnk if top 75)
Cincinnati1962Paul Hoguevs.198Syracuse1966Dave Bing #74, Jim Boeheim
UCLA1964Walt Hazzardvs.141Villanova1950Paul Arizin #66
UCLA1975Dave Meyersvs.140Detroit Mercy1960Dave DeBusschere #73
Kentucky1978Jack Givensvs.129Bowling Green1963Nate Thurmond #49
Kentucky2012Anthony Davis #53vs.128Dartmouth1944Dick McGuire
Duke1992Christian Laettnervs.95Connecticut2011Kemba Walker
UCLA1967Kareem Abdul-Jabbar #3vs.85Kansas1952Clyde Lovellette, Dean Smith
UNLV1991Larry Johnsonvs.47North Carolina2017Justin Jackson

In the 4th annual Value Add Basketball Tournament, we’re excited to feature a truly unique matchup: three of the greatest basketball coaches of all time—Jim Boeheim, Dean Smith, and Al McGuire—AS COLLEGE PLAYERS a competing against some of the most iconic players and dynasties in basketball history. 

We’ve created new matchups for our fourth tournament by adding eight new teams based on two key criteria: ensuring that all 28 college dynasties included in my recent CBS Sports piece on the 28 greatest dynasties as well as any team with a player featured in the NBA's recent 75th Anniversary Team.

Seeding and Tournament Breakdown:

The seeding worked out beautifully, with four newly identified dynasties being added to the mix and matched against teams that have either already been in the tournament or are looking to regain their spot in the race for the title. Among the new teams, four are favored against underdog teams added because one of their players was named by the NBA as one of the 75 greatest in history, while the remaining four face off against previous favorites who have had to bounce back after surprising upsets.


8 New All-Time Great Teams from Dynasties:

While we’ve previously included teams from UCLA, Connecticut, Kentucky, and Kansas in our Value Add Basketball Game (read more here), we realized several key dynasties runs from those schools were missing. To fill this gap, we’ve added six teams from these storied programs, along with two “non-blue blood” teams that also had a lasting impact on college basketball.


Cincinnati 1962 (Paul Hogue)
Seed: 1 | All-Time Rank: 2


Cincinnati, featuring Paul Hogue, is ranked among the top teams, thanks to a dynastic stretch post-Oscar Robertson and his 1960 team already in the game (of the 234 teams, this broke our rule of no two teams within two years of each other to avoid much overlaps in players).



UCLA 1964 (Walt Hazzard)
Seed: 2 | All-Time Rank: 3


With Walt Hazzard leading the way, this UCLA team remains one of the most dominant in history. We originally treated the 1964-75 UCLA run as one dynasty, but decided to instead threat it as four 3-year dynasties to include the 1964 and 1975 teams in addition to Kareem's 1968 and Walton's 1972.

UCLA 1975 (Dave Meyers)
Seed: 3 | All-Time Rank: 14


This team, led by Dave Meyers, brings UCLA’s deep tradition into the fold, and not only did this team get John Wooden one final title, but they faced the toughest competition (Strength of Schedule) of any other dynasty EXCEPT Michigan's Fab 5 and Michael Jordan's UNC champs.



Kentucky 1978 (Jack Givens)
Seed: 4 | All-Time Rank: 18


Jack Givens’ Kentucky squad had a magical run to the title and will be looking to make another deep tournament run.


North Carolina 2017 (Justin Jackson)
Seed: 9 | All-Time Rank: 47


The 2017 Tar Heels, led by Justin Jackson, will try to prove they deserve a higher ranking in this competitive field. They would have one back-to-back titles except for Villanova's buzzer beater the year before these champs.


Kansas 1952 (Clyde Lovellette)
Seed: 10 | All-Time Rank: 85


Clyde Lovellette’s Kansas team is a historical powerhouse, but if they lose their openers they will fall to 5th place among Kansas teams. Paul Pierce and Mario Chalmers both have teams in our all-time Final 5, the recent 2022 champs are ahead of this time, and if they lose their first game they will slip behind Wilt Chamberlain and the 1957 squad.


Connecticut 2011 (Kemba Walker)
Seed: 11 | All-Time Rank: 95


UConn’s 2011 national title squad, led by Kemba Walker, faces an uphill battle to prove themselves once again. This team did not look that strong until the tournament, which they simply picked the dribbles of opponents to never let them set up their offense, which they will definitely have to do again if this surprise champ from 2011 hopes to pull an upset in their first game against the overpowering champ from the year after they claimed their title - Kentucky 2012 and Anthony Davis. Whether or not they win in the game, the actual season was one of Jim Calhoun's most incredible title runs.




Dartmouth 1944 (Dick McGuire)
Seed: 12 | All-Time Rank: 128


The "Dartmouth 1944 and Friends" team is a unique entry, combining players from the 1940s, including NBA legends Dick McGuire and his brother, Al McGuire, alongside military trainees who played during World War II. Though this team near had the same lineup, they nearly captured a national title, and we’re thrilled to see them make their debut.


Make no mistake, the star of this "Dartmouth and Friends 1944" team and the actual 1944 team was Dick McGuire, who would go onto dish out more than 4,000 assists in the NBA en route to being named an NBA All-Star seven times and finishing 11th in MVP voting one year. This is our only team of 310 Value Add Basketball Game teams in the game that does not use the actual roster - but since the roster was changing every game anyway between military training that year, we decided to put together this team to represent the team that came so close to winning the title despite a new line-up every game. As the only team in the game that includes players not actually on the squad, I named them the “Dartmouth 1944 and Friends” team with Dick McGuire - 

Players were sharing time between Marine and Navy training and playing some games but not others - making the win over Big Ten champ Ohio State to improve to 19-1 to make their second national title game in three years before an overtime 40-42 loss to Utah in the title game even more impressive. We had left them out of the game due to how hard it was to cobble together stats but decided to put together a "Dartmouth and Friends" team using stats for five Dartmouth players from the 1940s that made the NBA in addition to the two Marine trainees who played some of those games between training and we let Dick bring his little brother Al McGuire to play as well.



  • 4 New Teams Featuring All-Time Greatest NBA Players:
We also realized that several players who made ESPN’s NBA 75th Anniversary Team (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33297498/the-nba-75th-anniversary-team-ranked-where-76-basketball-legends-check-our-list) had college teams that deserved to be included. We’ve added these teams to the tournament, ensuring the best of both worlds: dominant college programs and some of the greatest NBA players ever.


Bowling Green 1963 (Nate Thurmond)
Seed: 13 | All-Time Rank: 129


Nate Thurmond led Bowling Green to the NCAA tournament twice, and his rebounding dominance will be critical in this competition. Bowling Green 1963 featuring  Nate Thurmond #49 is our tournament  13 -seed currently ranks as our No. H:H and No.  129 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. Thurmond was the first player NBA player to ever record a dradruple-double during his career, and he once recorded 42 rebounds in a game – only topped by Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain in the history of the NBA. He took  Bowling Green to the NCAA tournament twice and recorded 31 rebounds in his last college game.




Detroit Mercy 1960 (Dave DeBusschere)
Seed: 14 | All-Time Rank: 140


DeBusschere, a unique two-sport athlete, led Detroit Mercy to national recognition before going on to an illustrious NBA career.Detroit Mercy 1960 featuring  Dave DeBusschere #73 is our tournament  14 -seed currently ranks as our No. H:H and No.  140 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. DeBusschere was also an MLB baseball pitcher his first couple of years after taking Detroit Mercy to the baseball and basketball national tournaments, but after two MLB seasons focused on the NBA the rest of his career. According to Wikipedia, the only 12 other athletes to make the NBA and MLB are Danny Ainge, Frank Baumholtz, Hank Biasatti, Gene Conley, Chuck Connors, DeBusschere, Dick Groat, Steve Hamilton, Mark Hendrickson, Cotton Nash, Ron Reed, Dick Ricketts and Howie Schultz.




Villanova 1950 (Paul Arizin)
Seed: 15 | All-Time Rank: 141


Arizin’s remarkable journey from being cut from his high school team to becoming a national player of the year is a testament to his incredible career. Villanova 1950 featuring  Paul Arizin #66 is our tournament  15 -seed currently ranks as our No. H:H and No.  141 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. The coach at Arizin high school deserved to be fired, because he cut Arizin from the team – but a few years later Villanova’s coach saw him playing a CYO game and according to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Arizin), “Severance approached Arizin and asked him if he would like to go to Villanova, to which Arizin answered: ‘I already go to Villanova.’" Perhaps the easiest and best recruiting job ever.  He scored 85 points in a game and was named national player of the year in 1950.

Syracuse 1966 (Dave Bing, Seed: 16 | All-Time Rank: 198

Jim Boeheim is our tournament  16 -seed currently ranks as our No. H:H and No.  198 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. He revolutionized the point guard position as a tall athletic player who did all the distribution you want in a point guard, but also scored at will  - finishing fifth in the nation by his senior season before a great NBA career. While he was certainly well known after becoming Mayor of Detroit, his roommate and teammate  Jim Boeheim went onto be arguably the greatest coach in the history of college basketball. Ironically we stumbled on three coaching legends accidentally by pulling up these teams, so now have player cards for Boeheim, Dean Smith (from Kansas 1952) and Al McGuire’s brother Dick McGuire from Dartmouth 1944.



4 Teams Rebounding from Surprising Upsets:

Finally, we have four teams that experienced shocking upsets in previous tournaments. These teams are hungry for redemption and will look to prove that their losses were mere flukes.

  1. Kentucky 2012 (Anthony Davis)
    Seed: 5 | All-Time Rank: 21 Kentucky 2012 featuring  Anthony Davis #53 is our tournament  5 -seed currently ranks as our No. H:H and No.  21 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. Kentucky is 4-2 in our game, and has looked dominant in winning those four games by an average of 17 points – just what we thought would happen in our game. One of their two losses was in our first big tournament of 96 teams, where they can be excused for being upset by Michael Jordan. However, when we had only developed teams since the www.kenpom.com pages were compiled in 2002, they were stung by another upset by the Auburn 2019 team.  We put them at No. 2 in our preseason rankings, but they dropped to their current No. 21 due to that loss, so we want to see if they are elite.

  2. Duke 1992 (Christian Laettner)
    Seed: 6 | All-Time Rank: 26

    Duke 1992 featuring  Christian Laettner is our tournament  6 -seed currently ranks as our No. H:H and No.  26 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. The legendary Duke 1992 team was No. 10 all-time in our preseason ranking, and the Laettner years is ranked as one of the best five dynasties of all time in our recent CBS Sports piece https://247sports.com/college/marquette/article/john-pudner-marquette-kryptonite-only-blemish-as-22-24-uconn-soars-in-top-10-all-time-rankings-242853394/. However, after never losing the heartbreakers during their actual run, they did lose two heartbreakers – on a last second shot by Michael Jordan and their hated rivals, and then again to their hated Big East rivals UConn 2004 to drop from our 10th all-time best team to 26th for now – hoping for a win to shoot back up.

  3. UCLA 1967 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar)
    Seed: 7 | All-Time Rank: 35

    UCLA 1967 featuring  Kareem Abdul-Jabbar #3 is our tournament  7 -seed currently ranks as our No. H:H and No.  35 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. Kareem’s UCLA only lost once in our game – as they did in real life against Houston in the “Game of the Century,” but it was the biggest upset in the 304 games we’ve played since inventing the Value Add Basketball Game.  UCLA’s team is rated a +13 in our Value Add Basketball Game, good enough to start the season as our No. 3 team in addition to being ranked our No. 1 dynasty, and was therefore a 16-point favorite up against the DePaul 1980 team that was a -3. Hoewver, Mark Aguire and Terry Cummings no only pulled the biggest upset in our 304 games, but kept the tempo fast with steals to not let UCLA settle and work it into Kareem, and the Blue Demons not only won but pulled away 86-71 to send UCLA plunging all the way to 35th all-time in our game.

  4. UNLV 1991 (Larry Johnson)
    Seed: 8 | All-Time Rank: 45
    The Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV were once considered a top-tier team, but a string of upsets has dropped them down the rankings. Now, they’re back for redemption.UNLV 1991 featuring  Larry Johnson is our tournament  8 -seed currently ranks as our No.   45 in our rating of the greatest teams ever. This story was familiar – UNLV looked like one of the best ever as the 11th ranked team all-time in our game. However, they dropped all the way to 45th after two losses and need this tournament to try to reestablish themselves as elite. It was the 1991 Christian Laettner team that stunned them in the rematch in real life in 1991, and in the game it was the 2001 Duke team from a decade later that beat them.  That was not the game that dropped them a lot though – rather it was the 1966 national champs from Texas Western, the same team that would become UTEP and made history as the first all-Black starting team in a title game that beat the all-white Kentucky team of Adolf Rupp and his white socks.


Conclusion:

This year's Value Add Basketball Tournament promises to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable yet, with fresh faces, familiar dynasties, and historic players competing for the ultimate title. Will the new additions prove their place among the greatest teams of all time, or will the established powers reclaim their spots? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: it’s going to be an unforgettable tournament for someone like me who loves to relive and learn about the greatest teams and players by seeing their strengths in the course of games..

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Greatest 25 Dynasties in College Basketball HIstory

The following ranking of the 28 greatest dynasties in college basketball history accompanies an article featured on John Dodds' CBS 247 site. Click on that story for the top 10 dynasties of all-time. Below we cover the rest of the top 25.

To be considered, a team had to reach the NCAA championship game at least twice within a 4-year span. A total of 24 teams made the title game twice in three years, so they are ranked from 24th to 1st. The four teams that took four years to reach two title games are all tied for 25th.

Each team has an explanation for their ranking, based on the following criteria:

  1. Team and Star(s): The team and standout players from these dynasty years are featured in our Value Add Basketball Game, which has been used to simulate hundreds of games between these teams. The all-time ranking of star players is based on our composite of the ESPN/NBA list, and if a player fell off their recent top 75 all-time list then we move them back to 76th, 77th, etc based on their prior ranking.

  2. Rank Based on Multiple Runs: This reflects where each team ranks among the 28 based on their deepest average tournament run. Tournament rounds are assigned points as follows: 1 = National Champion, 2 = Runner-Up, 4 = Final Four, 8 = Elite 8, 16 = Sweet 16, 25 = 2nd Round, 35 = 1st Round Loss, 45 = Did Not Make the Tournament.

  3. SRS Among Dynasties: Teams are ranked by their Simple Rating System (SRS), which measures a team’s performance based on competition, record, and margin of victory. Look up seasons here.

  4. SOS Among Dynasties: Teams are ranked based on the difficulty of their schedules (Strength of Schedule - SOS). For example, Michigan's Fab 5 faced the toughest schedule in NCAA history, including the hardest competition in their two title-game runs.

  5. Average Victory Margin: The average margin of victory during each team’s tournament runs is also considered.

  6. SRS Rating per Year: The SRS rating for each year of the dynasty is listed, with the average used to calculate the team’s rank in the Multiple Runs category.


The Top 25:


25th (tie)Connecticut (2011-2014)
Featured Team: We have many UConn teams in the game but not yet from these four years.

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 17
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 24
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 7
  • Average tournament victory margin in 2011: 10.3 (19th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 25, 45, 1

25th (tie)Kansas (1988-1991)
Featured Team: 1988 with Danny Manning

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 20
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 23
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 3
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1988: 8.8 (24th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 45, 25, 2

25th (tie)Kentucky (1975-1978)
Featured Team: Coming soon - 1978 - with stars Jack Givens and Rick Robey

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 27
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 8
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 5
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1978: 9.0 (23rd best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 2, 45, 8, 1

25th (tie)Marquette (1974-1977)
Featured Team: 1977 with Butch Lee and Bo Ellis

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 23
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 20
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 15
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1977: 8.0 (25th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 2, 35, 8, 1

24thButler (2010-2011)
Featured Team: 2010 with Gordon Hayward

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 22
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 25
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 25
  • Average tournament victory margin in 2010: 5.2 (27th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 35, 2, 2

23rdLa Salle (1953-1955)
Featured Team: 1954 with Tom Gola

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 26
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 18
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 14
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1954: 11.2 (18th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 45, 1, 2

22ndKansas (1952-1954)
Featured Team: 1952, current closest is 1957 with Wilt Chamberlain

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 21
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 15
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 19
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1952: 14.8 (11th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 2, 35

21stKentucky (1948-1950)
Featured Team: 1948 with Alex Groza

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 25
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 28
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 26
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1948: 15.7 (9th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 1, 45

20thKentucky (2012-2014)
Featured Team: 2012 with Anthony Davis

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 28
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 21
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 18
  • Average tournament victory margin in 2012: 11.8 (14th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 45, 2

19thOklahoma State (1945-1947)
Featured Team: 1946 with Bob Kurland

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 24
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 27
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 27
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1945: 18.7 (7th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 1, 45

18thDartmouth (1942-1944)
Featured Team: 1944 and Friends with Dick McGuire - Players were sharing time between Marine and Navy training and playing some games but not others - making the win over Big Ten champ Ohio State to improve to 19-1 to make their second national title game in three years before an overtime 40-42 loss to Utah in the title game even more impressive. We had left them out of the game due to how hard it was to cobble together stats but decided to put together a "Dartmouth and Friends" team using stats for five Dartmouth players from the 1940s that made the NBA in addition to the two Marine trainees who played some of those games between training and we let Dick bring his little brother Al McGuire to play as well.

Make no mistake, the star of this "Dartmouth and Friends 1944" team and the actual 1944 team was Dick McGuire, who would go onto dish out more than 4,000 assists in the NBA en route to being named an NBA All-Star seven times and finishing 11th in MVP voting one year. This is our only team of 310 Value Add Basketball Game teams in the game that does not use the actual roster - but since the roster was changing every game anyway between military training that year, we decided to put together this team to represent the team that came so close to winning the title despite a new line-up every game.

Here is Dartmouth's account of the season and photo of the 1944 team.

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 15
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 26
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 28
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1944: 10.0 (20th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 2, 16, 2

Dartmouth & Friends 1944       Ht        Cards based on:                                                                  
Dick McGuire6'08.0pt,5.7A,3.8 R in NBA, 7-time All-Star, 11th place MVP
George Munroe5'116.1pt,0.3A in NBA
Lionel Baxter 10+ppg when played, Marine
Thomas Killick 10+ppg when played, Marine
Aud Brindley6'42.8pt,0.1 A in NBA, All-Am
Al McGuire6'24.0pt,1.9A,2.1R in NBA
Ed Leede6'37.8pt,1.9 A,1.0 R in NBA
Joseph Vancisin 4 pt, 19 min in Nat'l title
John Monahan 1 of 3 full (Vancisin,Brindley)
Bob Gale6'510 pt, 37 min Nat'l title


17thGeorgetown (1983-1985)
Featured Team: 1984 with Patrick Ewing

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 19
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 10
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 21
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1984: 9.8 (21st best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 25, 1, 2

16thNorth Carolina (2015-2017)
Featured Team: soon to be created - 2017 with Justin Jackson

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 14
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 11
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 4
  • Average tournament victory margin in 2017: 11.2 (16th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 16, 2, 1

15thCalifornia (1958-1960)
Featured Team: 1959 with Jack Grout, Darrall Imhoff and Bill McClintock

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 10
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 16
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 17
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1959: 11.3 (15th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 8, 1, 2

14thHouston (1982-1984)
Featured Team: 1983 with Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler, the 13th and 53rd best players in the history of basketball

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 9
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 17
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 22
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1983: 9.2 (22nd best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 4, 2, 2

13thArkansas (1993-1995)
Featured Team: 1994 with Corliss Williamson

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 13
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 19
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 16
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1994: 11.2 (17th best)
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 16, 1, 2

12thNorth Carolina (1981-1983)
Featured Team: 1982 with Michael Jordan and James Worthy, the greatest and 56th greatest player in the history of basketball.

  • Rank based on multiple runs: 11
  • Based on SRS among dynasties: 13
  • Based on SOS among dynasties: 2
  • Average tournament victory margin in 1982: 4.6 (28th best) This means UNC was the "least dominant," seeming to barely survive each round by an average of less than five points. However, this could also be viewed as the "most clutch" since it entailed UNC pulling out one clutch win after another against the 2nd toughest schedule faced by any of the 28 dynasties, with only Michigan's Fab 5 required to get through tough compeition.
  • Bracket reached each year in order: 2, 1, 8

For the top 10 dynasties of all time, including a tie for 10th place, visit the Dodds on Sports 247 CBS Sports article. To pull up free cards of the players for each featured team mentioned, click on the free Value Add Basketball Game to see them in the format shown in this SIMS Magazine Feature


The following 12 teams and players listed under them will be added either because we learned a player on their team was added to the NBA/ESPN All-Time top 75 player ranking or because we did not have a team within the range of the school's 3- or 4-year dynasty (e.g. we had Oscar Robertson's Cincinnati team, but the dynasty of two tiles actually occurred right after he graduated). We will then have a team for each of the top 75 all-time players who played substantial time at a D1 college. 

We also discovered teams with two of the greatest coaches of all time in UNC great coach Dean Smith playing for Kansas in 1952 and Jim Boeheim on the Syracuse 1966 team, which he would take over as a coach.

The first five players on each team are the starters and listed in the order of Point Guard (1-PG), Shooting Guard (2-SG), Small Forward (3-SF), Power Forward (4-PF) and Center (5-C). Then the reserves in italics are listed below them in the same order.

We also added two teams from our top two dynasties. We decided we needed to add the first 30-0 UCLA team that started the streak with Walt Hazzard in 1964 before Kareem and Walton arrived, and Jim Calhoun's last champs who delivered perhaps the most surprising Connecticut title behind Kemba Walker in 2011.

Here are the new teams, and it looks like a new UCLA and Cincinnati team will debut at 2nd and 3rd place all-time, while some teams like Syracuse debuting at 206th placer were added because an all-time great player has moved into the ESPN/NBA top 75.

Rnk   Team Being Created   Top Player (and if in top 75)   Off      Def      Rating
2Cincinnati 1962Paul Hogue1.220.7516
3UCLA 1964Walt Hazzard1.350.9015
17UCLA 1975Dave Meyers1.250.8610
21Kentucky 1978Jack Givens1.180.819
58North Carolina 2017Justin Jackson1.270.974
92Kansas 1952Clyde Lovellette1.200.951
105Connecticut 2011Kemba Walker1.140.900
138Bowling Green 1963Nate Thurmond #491.120.92-3
139Dartmouth 1944Dick McGuire1.050.85-3
156Detroit Mercy 1960Dave DeBusschere #731.191.00-4
157Villanova 1950Paul Arizin #661.160.97-4
206Syracuse 1966Dave Bing #74, Jim Boeheim1.201.07-8

Here are the planned rosters for those 12 new teams:

Tm    Bowling Green 1963Cincinnati 1962Connecticut 2011Dartmouth 1944
1-PGHowie KomivesTony YatesKemba Walker - starDick McGuire - star
2-SGPat HaleyLarry ShingletonShabazz NapierGeorge Munroe
3-SFWavey JuniorRon BonhamJeremy LambBob Gale
4-PFElijah ChatmanTom ThackerRoscoe SmithThomas Killick
5-CNate Thurmond - starPaul Hogue - starAlex OriakhiAud Brindley
6-PGBill ReynoldsTom SizerDonnell BeverlyAl McGuire
7-SGLyle Pepin Niels GiffeyEd Leede
8-SFMel GilbertFred DierkingJamal Coombs-McDanielJoseph Vancisin
9-PFBob CarbaughDale HeidottingTyler OlanderJohn Monahan
10-CTom BakerGeorge WilsonCharles OkwanduBob Gale
     
TmDetroit Mercy 1960Kansas 1952Kentucky 1978North Carolina 2017
1-PGRay AlbeeDean KelleyKyle MacyJoel Berry
2-SGLarry HughesBob KenneyTruman ClaytorTheo Pinson
3-SFGeorge HegerBill HouglandJack Givens - starJustin Jackson - star
4-PFDave DeBusschere - starBill LienhardJames LeeIsaiah Hicks
5-CCharlie NorthClyde Lovellette - starRick Robey - starKennedy Meeks
6-PGTom VillemureDean SmithJay ShidlerNate Britt
7-SGFrank ChickowskiCharlie HoagDwane CaseyKenny Williams
8-SFBob WrightJohn KellerLaVon WilliamsBrandon Robinson
9-PFJohn ParkerBill HeitholtChuck AleksinasLuke Maye
10-CDick DylusB.H. BornMike PhillipsTony Bradley
     
TmSyracuse 1966UCLA 1964UCLA 1975Villanova 1950
1-PGDave Bing - starGail GoodrichPete TrgovichJoseph Hannan
2-SGJim Boeheim - starWalt Hazzard - starDave MeyersLeo Wolf
3-SFGeorge HickerFred SlaughterMarques JohnsonThomas Sabol
4-PFVaughn HarperJack HirschRichard WashingtonBrooks Ricca
5-CRichard DeanKeith EricksonRalph DrollingerPaul Arizin - star
6-PGRichard CornwallMike HugginsJim SpillaneBen Stewart
7-SGSam PencealKenny WashingtonAndre McCarterPerry Del Purgatorio
8-SFFrank NicolettiRich LevinCasey CorlissTom Brennan
9-PFNorman GoldsmithKim StewartWilbert Olinde 
10-CVal ReidDoug McIntoshBrett Vroman


IF We Broke UCLA into 4 Consecutive Dynasties

One final note is that we treated UCLAs run to 10 of 12 titles from 1964 to 1975 as one dynasty. 

Since the other top 23 dynasties are all 3-year time periods, we could have broken the 12-year UCLA run into four separate 3-year dynasties; before Kareem (1964-66), three years including Kareem (1967-69), three years including Bill Walton (1970-72) and then the three years after Walton through the last title.

If show, our rankings of the all-time dynasties would have included 31 dynasties instead of 28 in this order:

Kareem's dynasty would have still been No. 1

1. UCLA (1967-1969)
Featured team: 1967 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (3rd greatest pro player)
Rank based on multiple runs: 1 (tie with UCLA 1970-72).
Based on SRS among dynasties: 1 (tie with UCLA 1970-72).
Based on SOS among dynasties: 9
In 1967, won average NCAA tournament game by: 23.8, to edge UConn by half a point for the best margin ever.
Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 1, 1


Bill Walton's dynasty would have been a close 2nd as the two would then be the only two dynasties to have won the National Title three years in a row, as well as the No. 1 SRS every year as best team. However, Kareem faced tightly tougher opposition (SOS) and had the biggest victory margin ever in the tournament, and topped 20+ victory margin in two tournaments to none for Walton. Close but clear edge to Kareem.

2. UCLA (1970-1972)
Featured team: 1972 with Bill Walton (the 44th greatest pro player ever and 3rd best college player ever).
Rank based on multiple runs: 1 (tie with UCLA 1967-69).
Based on SRS among dynasties: 1 (tie with UCLA 1967-69).
Based on SOS among dynasties: 13
In 1970 and again in 1972 won by an average of 18.0 for 7th best margin.
Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 1, 1

Provided UConn makes it to at least the Final 4 this year, the would move into 3rd ahead of the other two 3-year runs. If not, then the last of the four UCLA 3-year runs would move into 3rd to give UCLA the top three ever.

4. UCLA (1973-1975)
Featured team to be added: 1975 featuring Dave Meyers and the team that delivered Wooden’s final title to make it 10 of 12 seasons.
Rank based on multiple runs: 5 (missed 1974, but still in Final 4 in between titles)..
Based on SRS among dynasties: 7
Based on SOS among dynasties: 3
In 1973, won by an average of 16.0, the 9th best total.
Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 4, 1.

Under this scenario the early UCLA dynasty of the four would slip to the 10th greatest dynasty, being passed by the dynasties not only of Connecticut 2023 - 2025, but also Kentucky 1996-98, Cincinnati 1961-63, Duke 1990-92, San Francisco in 1950s and finally Ohio State in the early 1960s.

This is not because the 1964 team is not great - in fact we project them to move into the No. 3 spot all-time in our Value Add Basketball Game as soon as their cards are created. Rather is is the fact that the 1964 UCLA team missed the tournaments completely, so despite how great 1964 and 1965 teams were, that drops the 1964-65 as a whole to be the 10th greatest 3-year dynasty ever in college hoops:

10. UCLA (1964-1966)
Featured team to be added: 1964 featuring Walt Hazzard, the leader of the undefeated team that started the 12-season run before Kareem arrived.
Rank based on multiple runs: 8 (slipped a little due to not making tournament at all in 1966 after two titles).
Based on SRS among dynasties: 14
Based on SOS among dynasties: 15
Won average NCAA tournament game by: 15.5 in 1965, the 12th best margin of any dynasty..
Bracket reached each year in order: 1, 1, 45

Once the 12 new teams are built out my tentative plan is to but then in a tournament with the four powerhouse teams shown in my current local ratings for a 16-team tournament. All four had disappointing losses in the early season to drop a bit in our rankings.