If you want to skip the details and get the end result, the box score for the game is at the bottom of the blog. The starting line-up for the Creighton Blue Jays goes from left to right from point guard to center, and the starting line-up for the Duke Blue Devils is in the same order in the bottom row:
You can play a game in about 30 minutes using basic rules, where the game starts 20-20 with 44 possessions to go (finalized score sheet at the bottom). In the basic game you use one reserve line-up for the first 8 possessions (44-38) and then the starters for the final 37 possessions (37-1). However, in the tournament we use advanced rules including all players playing their typical number of possessions, so for this championship we provide the new line-up every time a new player enters the game.
The small print gives details on every dice roll - From 8-sided die in
black, the two 6-sided die roll of 11-66 in red,
and 20-sided die in green - for those who play their own games. However, you can skip the fine print to just follow the play-by-play.
National Championship 2020 – Duke vs.
Creighton Line-Ups
Line-ups for
Possession 44
44 – from
possessions 44-39 Mahoney (PF) and Jones (C ) in game so starters will have
enough Stamina to finish the game. Note Zagarowski, Alexander and Ballock have
Stamina higher than 44 so can play all 44 possessions of the game. The first 10 players on the score sheet (see bottom) start with 2 points each - but since Creighton plans to only use eight players, their three main players (two guards and small forward) who are 3-point shooters all get a 3-point shot instead of a 2-point shot and Alexander also gets a free throw as the highest-ranked player at www.valueaddbasketball.com (Alexader as 13th best player and Ballock as 40th best player of 4000+). See this blog for setting up a score sheet at the beginning of a game.
Duke starts the game with the line-up above of all reserves to "finish" with their starters, though Tre Jones' Stamina of 43 means he only needs to skip the first possession (44, so plays 43 all the way counting down to 1).
Advanced Rule: Note that
because DeLaurier’s block range is 21-28 (the only possible rolls are 21-26)
per advanced rules he will also block a shot anytime a 26 is rolled and the
opposing point guard or shooting guard has it on a “!” or “2” roll.
Opening Tip:
·
Dice
Creighton:
Creighton Result:
Mahoney scores 2
·
Dice
Duke: 8-sided: 1 two 6-sided: 42 20-sided:7 (green die irrelevant if something happens on red dice)
Duke Result: O'Connor turnover
Creighton 22, Duke 20 at end of both teams’ Possession 44
Line-ups for
Possessions 43-39
43 -
Creighton's line-up unchanged. Jones comes into play PG for Duke and can finish
game (his Stamina is 43 so he can play possessions 43-1).
·
Dice
Creighton:
Creighton
Result: T. Jones blocks shot (Zegarowski miss), DeLaurier def rebound (auto Def C)
·
Dice
Duke:
Duke Result: Alexander steal (Baker Turnover), fast break below
Creighton 22, Duke 20 at end of both teams’ Possession 43
·
Dice
Creighton:
2
2
Creighton
Result: Mahoney dunk on fastbreak pass from Alexander
·
Dice
Duke:
Rebound Chart Roll:
Dice Duke:
Rebound Chart Roll:
Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Baker Misses shot; Ballock fails to get rebound so goes to Moore; DeLaureir turnover
Creighton 24, Duke 20 at end of both teams’ Possession 42
·
Dice
Creighton:
Creighton
Result: Zegarowski miss, rebound White (Auto Def PF)
·
Dice
Duke:
Free throws: 20-sided:6 then 5
Free throws: 20-sided:6 then 5
Duke Result: Zegarowski fouls T. Jones, one-and-one free throws; T. Jones makes both free throws
Creighton 24, Duke 22 at end of both teams’ Possession 41
·
Dice
Creighton:
Rebound roll
Rebound roll
Creighton
Result: Ballock misses shot; Zagarowski fails to get rebound, T. Jones gets it.
·
Dice
Duke:
Rebound roll
Rebound roll
Duke Result: Baker misses 3-pt shot (35 foul on most by Alexander avoids foul with 36-36); T. Jones fails to get rebound, Zegarowski gets it.
Creighton 24, Duke 22 at end of both teams’ Possession 40
·
Dice
Creighton:
Creighton Result: Zegarowski scores 2
·
Dice
Duke:
Duke Result: K.Jones blocks shot (DeLaurier miss); Ballock rebound (auto def SF)
Creighton 26, Duke 22 at end of both teams’ Possession 39
Line-ups for Possessions 38-37
·
Dice
Creighton:
Creighton
Result: Baker steal (Alexander TO) and fast-break on next
·
Dice
Duke:
Duke Result: White turnover off fast-break pass from Baker
Creighton 26, Duke 22 at end of both teams’ Possession 38
·
Dice
Creighton:
Creighton
Result: Alexander makes 3-point shot
·
Dice
Duke:
Duke Result: Moore misses 2-pointer; Alexander rebound (auto def SG)
Creighton 29, Duke 22 at end of both teams’ Possession 37
Line-ups for Possession 36
36 - Creighton no changes. Duke's O'Connor re-enters game at shooting guard to play until Goldwire (Stamina 28) can enter and play the final 28 possessions of game.
· Dice Creighton:
Free throw 20-sided shots:18, 10
Free throw 20-sided shots:18, 10
Creighton Result: Zegarowski draws 2-shot foul on T. Jones; misses 1st free throw, makes second
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
Dice Duke:
Duke Result: T. Jones misses 3-pointer; DeLaurier offensive rebound;
Creighton 30, Duke 24 at end of both teams’ Possession 36
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Zegarowski scores 2-pointer
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Moore scores 2-pointer
Creighton 32, Duke 26 at end of both teams’ Possession 35
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Creighton Result: Alexander misses 3-pointer; White gets rebound
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: White makes 2-point shot
Creighton 32, Duke 28 at end of both teams’ Possession 34 - Half Time Score
2nd Half Opening Line-up
2nd Half Opening Line-up
Line-ups for
Possession 33
33 -
Creighton no changes. Duke's Robinson enters game at Center to play 4
possessions (33-30) until starter Vernon Carey (Stamina 29) can enter game and
play possession No. 29 to 1 (final).
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Zegarowski misses 3-pointer; Robinson gets rebound (automatic high on defense)
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: T. Jones misses 2-point shot; Bullock gets rebound (auto high on defense)
Creighton 32, Duke 28 at end of both teams’ Possession 33
Line-ups for
Possession 32
32 - Duke No
Changes. Creighton, with Stamina 32, Jefferson can now enter the game to play
the final 32 possessions of the game. Mahoney still has 2 Stamina left so moves
to Center to save Bishop (Stamina 24) to play the final 24 possessions.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Mahoney makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: O'Connor misses 3-point shot; Moore gets offensive rebound; O'Connor miss 2-pointer; Robinson offensive rebound; Robinson misses 2-point shot; Mahoney defensive rebound
Creighton 34, Duke 28 at end of both teams’ Possession 32
Line-ups for
Possession 31
31 -
Creighton no changes. Duke's Stanley enters game at Small Forward (3) with
Stamina 31 so can now finish final 31 possessions.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Zagarowski misses 2-point shot; Robinson defensive rebound (auto def center)
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Stanley dunk
Creighton 34, Duke 30 at end of both teams’ Possession 31
Line-ups for
Possession 30
30 - Duke no changes. Creighton's Windham enters game to play 6 possessions to get to last 24 for Bishop to enter game. Because of his 1-1 Off Reb we do not want him at Center, so Jefferson is moved their for these 6 possessions.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Windham makes 3-pointer
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
Free throw shots: 20-sided: 20, 17
Rebound dice
Free throw shots: 20-sided: 20, 17
Duke Result: T. Jones misses 3-pointer; Stanley offensive rebound; Stanley misses 2-point shot; Moore offensive rebound; T.Jones draws foul on Zegarowski (3rd foul-start with 1); T. Jones misses both free throws; Jefferson defensive rebound
Creighton 37, Duke 30 at end of both teams’ Possession 30
· Line-ups for Possessions 29
29 - Creighton no changes. Creighton's Carey enters game to play final 29 possessions.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Jefferson makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Zegarowski steal (T. Jones turnover), starts fast break on next
Creighton 39, Duke 30 at end of both teams’ Possession 29
Line-ups for Possessions
28-25
28 - Creighton no changes. Duke's Goldwire (Stamina 28) enters game at SG to play possessions No. 28 to 1 (final possession). This means Duke will now steal on all rolls of 31 and if 6,7 or 8 on 8-sided die then all rolls of 11-13.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Windham dunk off fast-break pass from Zegarowski
· Dice Duke: 6
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Duke Result: T. Jones misses 2-point shot; Jefferson gets defensive rebound
Creighton 41, Duke 30 at end of both teams’ Possession 28
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Stanley steal (Bullock turnover); starts fast break on next
· Dice Duke: 6
Duke Result: Alexander blocks shot (Goldwire miss); Ballock gets defensive rebound (auto def SF)
Creighton 41, Duke 30 at end of both teams’ Possession 27
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Creighton Result: Carey blocks shot (Jefferson miss); Goldwire fails to secure rebound, Alexander takes offensive rebound; Carey blocks 2nd shot (Bullock miss); Carey gets rebound (high on whole court, Carey gets with 1-8 defensive rebound range)
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Carey dunks
Creighton 41, Duke 32 at end of both teams’ Possession 26
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Stanley steal (Bullock turnover), starts fast break (forwards can start only on odd number steal like 11)
· Dice Duke:
Free throws 20-sided: 6, 17
Free throws 20-sided: 6, 17
Duke Result: Carey draws foul on Jefferson; makes 1st throw misses second, Alexander rebound (auto defensive PG)
Creighton 41, Duke 33 at end of both teams’ Possession 25
Line-ups for
Possession 24
24 - No Duke
Changes. Bishop enters game at C, Creighton starting line-up now set for final
24 possessions with no player getting tired since Bishop's Stamina = 24 thus
plays possessions 24 to 1.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Bishop dunk
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Stanley turnover
Creighton 43, Duke 33 at end of both teams’ Possession 24
Line-ups for
Possessions 23-1 (all starters in game)
23 - No
Creighton changes. Duke's Matthew Hurt (Stamina 23) is the last starter for any
team to enter, meaning this line-up is set with all 10 players the same for the
last 23 possessions of the game unless team changes due to foul out, or needing
to try for more steals or 3-pointers at end of game.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Alexander makes 3-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Stanley dunk
Creighton 46, Duke 35 at end of both teams’ Possession 23
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Creighton Result: Alexander misses 2-point shot; Hurt defensive rebound
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Alexander steal (Goldwire Turnover), start fast break on next
Creighton 46, Duke 35 at end of both teams’ Possession 22
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Carey blocks shot (Bishop miss); Carey defensive rebound
· Dice Duke:
Free throws 20-sided: 8,8
Free throws 20-sided: 8,8
Duke Result: T. Jones draws foul on Zegarowski (4th foul, strategy will switch and guard Goldwire who gets ball less and draws fewer fouls, and Alexander will guard T. Jones); T. Jones makes both free throws
Creighton 46, Duke 37 at end of both teams’ Possession 21
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Creighton Result: Alexander misses 2-point shot; Carey defensive rebound
· Dice Duke:
Free throws 20-sided: 13,1
Free throws 20-sided: 13,1
Duke Result: Stanley draws foul on Ballock; Stanly makes both free throws
Creighton 46, Duke 39 at end of both teams’ Possession 20
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Jefferson dunk
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Hurt misses 3-point shot; Bishop defensive rebound (auto to defensive center)
Creighton 48, Duke 39 at end of both teams’ Possession 19
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Alexander misses 3-point shot; Jefferson gets offensive rebound; Jefferson makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Free throws 20-sided: 9,4
Free throws 20-sided: 9,4
Duke Result: Carey draws foul on Bishop; Carey makes both free throws
Creighton 50, Duke 41 at end of both teams’ Possession 18
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Zagarowski makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Free throws 20-sided: 9,4
Free throws 20-sided: 9,4
Duke Result: Hurt draws foul on Jefferson; Hurt makes both free throws
Creighton 52, Duke 43 at end of both teams’ Possession 17
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Alexander makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Hurt makes 3-point shot
Creighton 54, Duke 46 at end of both teams’ Possession 16
· Dice Creighton:
Free throws 20-sided: 6,7
Free throws 20-sided: 6,7
Creighton Result: Bishop draws foul on Carey (2nd foul); Bishop makes both free throws (note, typo on Bishop's card above, his free throws made are 1-11 for 55%, not 1-1).
· Dice Duke:
Free throws 20-sided: 9,9
Free throws 20-sided: 9,9
Duke Result: T. Jones draws foul on Alexander (2nd foul); T. Jones makes both free throws
Creighton 56, Duke 48 at end of both teams’ Possession 15
· Dice Creighton:
Free throws 20-sided: 2,14
Free throws 20-sided: 2,14
Creighton Result: Alexander draws foul on Goldwire (2nd foul); Alexander makes both free throws
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Zegarowski steals (Goldwire turnover); start fast break on next
Creighton 58, Duke 48 at end of both teams’ Possession 14
· Dice Creighton:
Free throws 20-sided: 18,11
Free throws 20-sided: 18,11
Creighton Result: Jefferson draws foul on Hurt off fast break pass from Zegarowski; Jefferson made 1st free throw, missed second, rebound Goldwire (auto defensive SG)
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Goldwire missed 2-point shot; Alexander rebound (auto def SG)
Creighton 59, Duke 48 at end of both teams’ Possession 13
· Dice Creighton:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Creighton Result: Jefferson misses 2-point shot; Bullock fails to secure offensive rebound, Stanley gets defensive rebound
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Duke Result: Stanley misses 2-point shot; Carey secures offensive rebound; Carey scores 2-point shot
Creighton 59, Duke 50 at end of both teams’ Possession 12
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Bishop makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: T. Jones makes 2-point shot
Creighton 61, Duke 52 at end of both teams’ Possession 11
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Alexander makes 3-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Stanley misses 2-point shot; Goldwire secures offensive rebound; Goldwire turnover
Creighton 64, Duke 52 at end of both teams’ Possession 10
5-minutes, 9 possessions left - note in last 9 possessions an extra possession is created if either team steals and chooses to fast break, or if either team is fouled. If this happens on possession 9 for example then an extra possession 9a is created for both teams with the same rebounding rules, all the way down to if either happens on what would be the last possession - 1 - then there is a 1a. You can never create 2 extra possessions on the same possession or extra "a" of that possessions - extra fouls or fast breaks do NOT create yet another possession. Also luckily the power outage we just had with the storms in Alabama did not stop the game due to my pixel hotspot.
5-minutes, 9 possessions left - note in last 9 possessions an extra possession is created if either team steals and chooses to fast break, or if either team is fouled. If this happens on possession 9 for example then an extra possession 9a is created for both teams with the same rebounding rules, all the way down to if either happens on what would be the last possession - 1 - then there is a 1a. You can never create 2 extra possessions on the same possession or extra "a" of that possessions - extra fouls or fast breaks do NOT create yet another possession. Also luckily the power outage we just had with the storms in Alabama did not stop the game due to my pixel hotspot.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Ballock makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Duke Result: T. Jones misses 2-point shot; Bishop rebound.
Creighton 66, Duke 52 at end of both teams’ Possession 9
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Jefferson misses 2-point shot; Carey defensive rebound (auto to Def center)
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: T. Jones misses 3-point shot; Bishop defensive rebound (auto to Def center)
Creighton 66, Duke 52 at end of both teams’ Possession 8
Strategy: Duke will play for 3-point shot moving forward, which adds one to top of 3-point range for every one subtracted from top of 2-point range to turn into missed 3-pointer (only used when down late, as adding 1 extra point to change a 2 to a 3 for every 2 points turned to 0). 3-pt range can never be more than doubled, so new ranges - T. Jones now 1-4 = made 3, 5 = made 2, 6-7 = missed 3; Goldwire 1-6 made 3, 7-9 missed 3; Stanley 1-4 made 3, 5-6 made 2, 6-8 missed 3; Hurt 1-5 made 3, 6 made 2, 7-8 missed 3; Carey unaffected since no 3s). - interesting note after the game, Duke hit several 3-point shots after going to this strategy but I believe all but one would have been made 3-pointers without the strategy change.
Strategy: Duke will play for 3-point shot moving forward, which adds one to top of 3-point range for every one subtracted from top of 2-point range to turn into missed 3-pointer (only used when down late, as adding 1 extra point to change a 2 to a 3 for every 2 points turned to 0). 3-pt range can never be more than doubled, so new ranges - T. Jones now 1-4 = made 3, 5 = made 2, 6-7 = missed 3; Goldwire 1-6 made 3, 7-9 missed 3; Stanley 1-4 made 3, 5-6 made 2, 6-8 missed 3; Hurt 1-5 made 3, 6 made 2, 7-8 missed 3; Carey unaffected since no 3s). - interesting note after the game, Duke hit several 3-point shots after going to this strategy but I believe all but one would have been made 3-pointers without the strategy change.
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Jefferson makes 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Free throws 20-sided: 7,9
Free throws 20-sided: 7,9
Duke Result: T. Jones draws foul on Alexander (3rd foul) which also creates extra possessions 7a; Jones makes both free throws
Creighton 68, Duke 54 at end of both teams’ Possession 7
· Dice Creighton:
Free throw 20-sided: 19
Free throw 20-sided: 19
Creighton Result: Jefferson makes 2-point shot AND draws foul on Hurt (3rd foul); misses free throw; T. Jones rebound
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Steal by Bishop (Carey turnover)
Creighton 70, Duke 54 at end of both teams’ Possession 7a
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Ballock makes 3-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: T. Jones makes 3-point shot
Creighton 73, Duke 57 at end of both teams’ Possession 6
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Jefferson misses 3-point shot; Stanley gets defensive rebound
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Goldwire makes 3-point shot
Creighton 73, Duke 60 at end of both teams’ Possession 5
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Jefferson misses 2-point shot; Hurt defensive rebound (auto to def PF)
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Carey makes 2-point shot
Creighton 73, Duke 62 at end of both teams’ Possession 4
· Dice Creighton:
Free throw 20-sided: 17,18
Rebound dice
Free throw 20-sided: 17,18
Rebound dice
Creighton Result: Bishop draws 3rd foul on Carey (creates extra possession 3a); Bishop misses both free throws; Carey gets rebound.
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Stanley turnover.
Creighton 73, Duke 62 at end of both teams’ Possession 3
Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Alexander dunk
· Dice Duke:
Rebound dice
Rebound dice
Duke Result: T. Jones misses 2-point shot; Bishop defensive rebound
Creighton 75, Duke 62 at end of both teams’ Possession 3a
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Jefferson misses 2-point shot; Carey rebound (auto center)
· Dice Duke:
Free throw 20-sided: 8,8
Free throw 20-sided: 8,8
Duke Result: Bishop fouls Carey (creates extra possession 2a); Carey makes both free throws - Coach McDermott probably has a talk with Carey about not fouling in the last couple of minutes up double digits :-)
Creighton 75, Duke 64 at end of both teams’ Possession 2
Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: Alexander scores 2-point shot
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Stanley makes 3-point shot.
Creighton 77, Duke 67 at end of both teams’ Possession 2a
· Dice Creighton:
Creighton Result: No attempt to score.
· Dice Duke:
Duke Result: Carey makes 2-point shot.
Creighton 77, Duke 69 at end of both teams’ Possession 1
(Game over)
Game Wrap Up:
Creighton won by winning the turnover battle 14-6. The Blue Jays are one of the best at avoiding turnovers with Alexander and Ballock's ridiculous NO TURNOVER cards (41-40 range). Duke averaged more than 11+ steals in the first 5 games and probably (though I don't keep the stat normally) double digits off resultant fast breaks per game). Duke finished the game with only 5 steals, and on the three fast breaks that resulted they ended up with exactly 1 transition point. The first fast break was a turnover, the second Alexander rejected the shot, and the third Carey was fouled and hit one of two.
While it felt like Duke's shooting was terrible as I rolled a lot of high 20-sided die for them, their 44% overall field goal percentage was only a little off their 47% for the year, and the great 17 of 20 from the line made up for that. For every field goal a team attempts in a game they average 1.25 total points (including free throws made) which makes Duke's overall effort slightly above average at 1.28 (69 points with 54 total shots taken). What they did not do was get the ball to their four 3-point shooters (Goldwire, O'Connor, White and Baker) who went only 1 of 3 from 3-point range. Creighton only had half the 3-pointers made in each of their last two games, but their 3-pointers come from their main three players who play the whole game at guard/small forward, and Zagarowski, Alexander and Ballock went 7 of 16 on 3-pointers for the big edge. They usually do not get much scoring out of the two "big men" spots, so the fact that Jefferson came through with an unexpected 13 points, and Mahoney went 5 of 6 gave them a huge boost from the 56% inside shooting even though they really were dominated on the boards (Duke's 38 to 29 edge is really even more lopsided when you consider there were so many more opportunities on the defensive glass for Creighton due to Duke's shooting percentage being lower than Creighton's and defenders grab two-thirds of all rebounds.)
The oddsmakers placed Creighton as the team with the 3rd best chance to win the title in 2021 and Duke as the 6th most likely to win the title - and while that is way too early, it is possible these two could actually meet late in next year's March Madness. Coach McDermott's strategy of not really going for blocked shots, steals or extra offensive rebounds but avoiding turnovers and fouls and spreading the court for 3-pointers from all five players on the court certainly is working - and of course everything Coach K does has worked for years, so two fitting teams to make it through a very fun tournament after the crushing cancellation of the real March Madness this year.
Creighton 2020 National Champions in Value Add Basketball Tournament - Creighton 77, Duke 69
This is the only time I've done a detailed box score for a game including even missed shots, but as long as I'd decided to record every roll, I went back through and produced this:
Creighton won by winning the turnover battle 14-6. The Blue Jays are one of the best at avoiding turnovers with Alexander and Ballock's ridiculous NO TURNOVER cards (41-40 range). Duke averaged more than 11+ steals in the first 5 games and probably (though I don't keep the stat normally) double digits off resultant fast breaks per game). Duke finished the game with only 5 steals, and on the three fast breaks that resulted they ended up with exactly 1 transition point. The first fast break was a turnover, the second Alexander rejected the shot, and the third Carey was fouled and hit one of two.
While it felt like Duke's shooting was terrible as I rolled a lot of high 20-sided die for them, their 44% overall field goal percentage was only a little off their 47% for the year, and the great 17 of 20 from the line made up for that. For every field goal a team attempts in a game they average 1.25 total points (including free throws made) which makes Duke's overall effort slightly above average at 1.28 (69 points with 54 total shots taken). What they did not do was get the ball to their four 3-point shooters (Goldwire, O'Connor, White and Baker) who went only 1 of 3 from 3-point range. Creighton only had half the 3-pointers made in each of their last two games, but their 3-pointers come from their main three players who play the whole game at guard/small forward, and Zagarowski, Alexander and Ballock went 7 of 16 on 3-pointers for the big edge. They usually do not get much scoring out of the two "big men" spots, so the fact that Jefferson came through with an unexpected 13 points, and Mahoney went 5 of 6 gave them a huge boost from the 56% inside shooting even though they really were dominated on the boards (Duke's 38 to 29 edge is really even more lopsided when you consider there were so many more opportunities on the defensive glass for Creighton due to Duke's shooting percentage being lower than Creighton's and defenders grab two-thirds of all rebounds.)
The oddsmakers placed Creighton as the team with the 3rd best chance to win the title in 2021 and Duke as the 6th most likely to win the title - and while that is way too early, it is possible these two could actually meet late in next year's March Madness. Coach McDermott's strategy of not really going for blocked shots, steals or extra offensive rebounds but avoiding turnovers and fouls and spreading the court for 3-pointers from all five players on the court certainly is working - and of course everything Coach K does has worked for years, so two fitting teams to make it through a very fun tournament after the crushing cancellation of the real March Madness this year.
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