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Before continuing our Value Add Basketball Game tournaments we ran numbers on our 375 games so far to measure two things.
First, we periodically check to see what percent of our games are ending in upsets. As you can see from the chart above when a team is favored by just 1 point (the rating listed is 1 point better than their opponent) then they have won 51% of their games (22-21) whereas when they are favored by at least 16 points they are winning 89% of their games (31-4) and you can see the chances in between those figures.
The other thing we measured is the average rating for how well their conference teams have played, with a small bonus for the number of wins each conference team in our games against other great teams. We then ranked the conferences and we list their top player in our game.
For example, the combined Big Ten is by far the top team now based on the UCLA dynasty and all of the great teams from the Pac-12 as well as Big Ten over the years. they rank first of 32 conferences, and they have the best college ever in Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The greatest pro player all time is #4 all-time in college and the best ACC player in our game - of course - Michael Jordan. The list is below.
Most conferences just have a team or two so having one really good game will shoot them way up the rankings. For Example, Fred Sturdivant led Texas Southern to a stunning upset of Holy Cross, which shot the SWAC way up in our list even thought they normally are at the bottom of all conferences.
| Difference in preseason rating | Favorite | Underdog | Games | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 5 pt favorite | 99 | 61 | 160 | 62% |
| 6 to 10 pt favorite | 78 | 26 | 104 | 75% |
| 11 to 15 pt favorite | 45 | 9 | 54 | 83% |
| 16 or more pt favorite | 31 | 4 | 35 | 89% |
| Total Games with a Favorite | 253 | 100 | 353 | 72% |
Best conferences so far in the Value Add Basketball Game.
| Rnk | Conf | W | L | Pts | Allow | SoS | Rating | Plus 0.2/Win | Conference Player of All-Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B10 | 85 | 58 | 73.6 | 70.8 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 20.7 | Kareem Abdul-Jabbar #1, UCLA |
| 2 | ACC | 63 | 54 | 72.8 | 72.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 13.9 | Michael Jordan #4,UNC |
| 3 | B12 | 49 | 43 | 73.1 | 71.2 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 12.4 | Wilt Chamberlain #3, Kansas |
| 4 | SEC | 52 | 45 | 73.0 | 73.2 | -1.2 | -1.2 | 9.2 | Anthony Davis #7, Kentucky |
| 5 | BE | 43 | 43 | 73.5 | 73.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 9.1 | George Mikan #28, DePaul |
| 6 | CUSA | 12 | 7 | 74.0 | 71.5 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 7.1 | Karl Malone #23, Louisiana Tech |
| 7 | WCC | 6 | 8 | 81.9 | 80.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | Bill Russell #6, San Francisco |
| 8 | Slnd | 1 | 2 | 98.0 | 94.0 | -2.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | Thomas Walkup, Stephen F Austin |
| 9 | Amer | 9 | 10 | 71.0 | 70.6 | -1.2 | -1.0 | 0.8 | Cedric Maxwell, Charlotte |
| 10 | SWAC | 2 | 0 | 77.0 | 68.0 | -7.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | Fred Sturdivant, TX Southern |
| 11 | NEC | 2 | 1 | 78.3 | 68.3 | -11.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | Irv Targoff #29, Long Island |
| 12 | UAC (was WAC/ ASun) | 2 | 3 | 69.4 | 71.0 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -1.2 | Artis Gilmore, Jacksonville #46 |
| 13 | p12 | 9 | 14 | 72.6 | 73.6 | -2.4 | -4.0 | -2.2 | John Stockton #66, Gonzaga |
| 14 | BW | 3 | 2 | 75.4 | 72.8 | -7.4 | -4.2 | -3.6 | Ed Ratleff, Long Beach St |
| 15 | MVC | 5 | 7 | 78.0 | 79.7 | -2.8 | -4.9 | -3.9 | Larry Bird #14, Indiana St |
| 16 | MAC | 7 | 5 | 74.0 | 75.5 | -4.6 | -5.6 | -4.2 | Marcus Camby, Umass |
| 17 | BSth | 1 | 0 | 87.0 | 66.0 | -16.5 | -4.5 | -4.3 | Craig Bradshaw, Winthrop |
| 18 | OVC | 1 | 1 | 87.0 | 80.5 | -11.0 | -4.5 | -4.3 | Kenneth Faried, Morehead St |
| 19 | Horz | 3 | 3 | 86.8 | 86.3 | -7.1 | -6.7 | -6.1 | Dave DeBusschere, Detroit Mercy |
| 20 | PL | 1 | 3 | 77.0 | 82.0 | -2.5 | -9.0 | -8.8 | David Robinson #11, David Robinson |
| 21 | A10 | 6 | 29 | 66.0 | 74.3 | 0.3 | -10.1 | -8.9 | Stephen Curry #16, Davidson |
| 22 | CAA | 2 | 2 | 75.8 | 74.0 | -12.8 | -11.0 | -10.6 | Devontae Cacok, NC Wilmington |
| 23 | Old-timers | 2 | 3 | 65.4 | 71.0 | -4.8 | -11.0 | -10.6 | Robert Parish #100, Centenary |
| 24 | MWC | 2 | 10 | 71.3 | 80.4 | 0.0 | -11.2 | -10.8 | Larry Johnson #65, UNLV |
| 25 | BSky | 1 | 4 | 67.4 | 73.2 | -5.7 | -12.0 | -11.8 | Damian Lillard #60, Weber St |
| 26 | AE | 0 | 1 | 55.0 | 62.0 | -4.0 | -14.0 | -14 | Anthony Lamb, Vermont |
| 27 | MAAC | 2 | 4 | 68.7 | 79.7 | -4.6 | -14.9 | -14.5 | Calvin Murphy, Niagra |
| 28 | SB | 1 | 4 | 69.8 | 75.2 | -9.8 | -17.0 | -16.8 | Hal Greer #64, Marshall |
| 29 | MEAC | 0 | 1 | 60.0 | 62.0 | -12.0 | -17.0 | -17 | Kyle O'Quinn, Norfolk St |
| 30 | SC | 1 | 2 | 70.0 | 78.3 | -9.3 | -18.7 | -18.5 | Fletcher Magee, Wofford |
| 31 | Ivy | 1 | 4 | 61.4 | 80.0 | 0.0 | -20.4 | -20.2 | Bill Bradley, Princeton |
| 32 | Sum | 1 | 2 | 60.0 | 76.0 | -7.3 | -24.3 | -24.1 | Nate Wolters, South Dakota St |
| Total | 375 | 375 | 73.0 | 73.0 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -4.3 |
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