10 Most Improved and Underperforming Batters - and Statis-Pro Adjustments

This time of year enough games have been played that we look at updated projections on ZIPs/Fangraphs, and adjust the player cards for the free version of Statis-Pro baseball. In an early season where pitching has had the edge, Aaron Judge is one of three batters who have improved their projected OPS so much (.150 points or more) that we add three home run numbers to their cards and push the numbers up after that. 

Judge already had the best hitting card in the game with a 22-31 home run - so 8 of the 64 numbers on the base-8 11-88 random numbers. This despite they walk him a ton - 13 of the numbers, which means fewer balls to hit to get to the amazing one in eight numbers on his card being a homer.

HR	Deep	K	W	HPB	Out
22-31	32-34	35'-57	58'-74	75'-75	76'-88

The "add 3 HR" that will now appear on his card means the card is now even more amazing, with 11 numbers or 22-34 being a homer, keeping in mind the Deep drives on 35-37 can also be homers depending on the park, and the other numbers all pushed up three as well.

HR	Deep	K	W	HPB	Out
22-34	35-37	38'-62	63'-77	78'-78	81'-88

Here are the top 10 improvements in projected OPS so far this season with Toronto's Tyler Heineman having the highest increase from a projected 0.595 at the beginning of the season to right now a projected 0.797. Obviously the players with only a slight 
 

Team	Card	Most Improved	War	Proj. OPS	Improve War	Improve OPS
TOR	add 3 HR	Tyler Heineman	2	0.797	1.1	0.202
ATH	add 3 HR	Austin Wynns	1.3	0.815	1	0.180
NYY	add 3 HR	Aaron Judge	11.1	1.159	3.4	0.153
SEA	add 2 HR	Cal Raleigh	7.3	0.905	2.2	0.141
CHC	add 2 HR	Carson Kelly	3	0.771	1.7	0.126
BOS	add 2 HR	Carlos Narváez	2.9	0.747	1.9	0.117
NYM	add 2 HR	Pete Alonso	5.1	0.907	2.2	0.106
CIN	add 2 HR	Jose Trevino	2.1	0.753	0.4	0.104
KCR	add 2 HR	Maikel Garcia	3.8	0.777	1.2	0.103
HOU	add 2 HR	Jeremy Peña	6	0.814	2.7	0.101

On the flip side, the biggest drop has been from the Rangers Joc Pederson, whose card was a solid power card with homers on 22-26 ...

HR	Deep	K	W	HPB	Out
22-26	27-31	32'-52	53'-58	61'-63	64'-88

... but the minus 3 homers we are adding means he drops to only a 22-23 home run range card and going from us recommending him as the No. 2 hitter in the line-up to likely on the bench when you play the Rangers.

HR	Deep	K	W	HPB	Out
22-23	24-26	27-47	48-55	56-58	61'-88

Here are the biggest 10 under performers in projected OPS.

 

Team	Card	Worst Drop	War	OPS	Improve War	Improve OPS
TEX	minus 3 HR	Joc Pederson	-0.1	0.674	-2.2	-0.169
KCR	minus 3 HR	Michael Massey	-0.7	0.588	-2.7	-0.150
CHW	minus 2 HR	Vinny Capra	-0.4	0.557	-2.3	-0.144
TBR	minus 2 HR	Ben Rortvedt	-0.3	0.483	-1.2	-0.133
CIN	minus 2 HR	Jeimer Candelario	-0.4	0.637	-2.2	-0.127
WSN	minus 2 HR	Riley Adams	-0.5	0.57	-1	-0.125
LAA	minus 2 HR	LaMonte Wade Jr.	-0.9	0.623	-2.2	-0.124
MIL	minus 2 HR	Joey Ortiz	0.6	0.596	-1.6	-0.122
LAA	minus 2 HR	Luis Rengifo	-0.9	0.587	-2.8	-0.121
COL	minus 2 HR	Sean Bouchard	-0.5	0.671	-1.5	-0.12
CHW	minus 2 HR	Jacob Amaya	-0.8	0.499	-1.8	-0.116

New Batter Cards (11)

In looking at upgrades, 10 of them were not yet in the game, and Acuna's needed to be redone since the injury year last year after an MVP level made is last year projections shaky. The new cards are now in with the rest of the batters. We also played with the suggested batting orders a bit on that sheet, and this is where you can find each of the following new cards:

Team	Batting	Pos	New Card for	HR	OBR	SB	OPS
ATL	1	rf	Ronald Acuña Jr.	27-34	A	A	0.983
BOS	4	1b	Abraham Toro	27-31	D	D	0.792
CHC	Bench	ca	Reese McGuire	26=3b	D	D	0.621
CHW	2	rf	Mike Tauchman	27-32	D	D	0.814
DET	3	lf	Jahmai Jones	27-31	D	D	0.787
DET	Bench	dh	Wenceel Pérez	27-28	C	C	0.724
KCR	Bench	rf	Luke Maile	27-28	D	D	0.72
LAD	6	2b	Hyeseong Kim	27-31	A	A	0.768
MIA	6	dh	Heriberto Hernandez	27-31	D	D	0.752
SFG	Bench	1b	Dominic Smith	27-28	D	D	0.713
TEX	2	1b	Evan Carter	27-31	B	B	0.767

All Teams - All Players with improved or downgraded cards

The following is all the batter cards on each team that we will improve or drop HR numbers. Because hitting is down a bit this season, more players drop homers than add them. The two teams hit the hardest in the game are Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, which both have six down graded players and no upgraded players. Baltimore and Kansas City are almost as bad, with two players improved but seven players downgraded.

The two most improved line-ups not surprisingly are the Cubs and Tigers, which both have five players upgraded and only two downgraded. Here are just the cards of players who have over performed or under performed enough for an upgraded card in the game. We will make the notes on the spreadsheet of all Statis-Pro batter cards.

Team	Card	Name	War	OPS	Improve War	Improve OPS
ARI	add HR	Corbin Carroll	5.5	0.875	1	0.068
ARI	add HR	Geraldo Perdomo	3.9	0.754	1.7	0.051
ARI	minus HR	Jake McCarthy	-0.1	0.621	-1.8	-0.099
ARI	minus HR	Jordan Lawlar	0.2	0.58	-1.6	-0.07
ARI	add HR	Ketel Marte	4.6	0.912	0.7	0.083
ARI	minus HR	Nicky Lopez	0	0.541	-0.9	-0.065
ARI	add HR	Pavin Smith	1.5	0.8	0.7	0.063
ATH	add 3 HR	Austin Wynns	1.3	0.815	1	0.18
ATH	add HR	Jacob Wilson	5	0.884	2.9	0.097
ATH	minus HR	Jhonny Pereda	0.1	0.604	-0.8	-0.052
ATH	minus HR	Nick Martini	-0.5	0.662	-0.5	-0.081
ATH	minus HR	Seth Brown	0	0.669	-1	-0.053
ATH	add HR	Tyler Soderstrom	1.4	0.766	1	0.07
ATL	add HR	Drake Baldwin	2.4	0.755	0.5	0.055
ATL	minus HR	Jarred Kelenic	0.1	0.689	-1.4	-0.066
ATL	minus 2 HR	Michael Harris II	2.5	0.701	-2.1	-0.115
ATL	minus HR	Ozzie Albies	1.5	0.677	-0.7	-0.07
ATL	add HR	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.1	0.983	-0.9	0.064
ATL	minus HR	Stuart Fairchild	0.1	0.652	-0.5	-0.058
BAL	minus HR	Coby Mayo	0.1	0.664	-2.2	-0.063
BAL	minus HR	Gary Sánchez	0.3	0.608	0	-0.088
BAL	minus 2 HR	Heston Kjerstad	-0.5	0.661	-2.8	-0.105
BAL	minus HR	Jorge Mateo	0.1	0.602	-1.6	-0.051
BAL	minus 2 HR	Maverick Handley	-0.3	0.467	-1.2	-0.11
BAL	add HR	Ramón Laureano	1.9	0.793	0.2	0.066
BAL	minus HR	Ryan Mountcastle	0.4	0.679	-0.9	-0.058
BAL	add HR	Ryan O'Hearn	3.1	0.844	1.9	0.078
BAL	minus HR	Tyler O'Neill	0.8	0.73	-2	-0.077
BOS	add HR	Abraham Toro	1.1	0.792	-0.3	0.079
BOS	add HR	Alex Bregman	4.7	0.857	1.3	0.092
BOS	add 2 HR	Carlos Narváez	2.9	0.747	1.9	0.117
BOS	minus HR	Connor Wong	0.1	0.614	-0.9	-0.091
BOS	minus HR	David Hamilton	0.4	0.604	-1.4	-0.06
BOS	minus HR	Kristian Campbell	0.8	0.712	-1.6	-0.054
BOS	add HR	Rob Refsnyder	1.3	0.831	0.3	0.069
BOS	minus HR	Trevor Story	0.8	0.649	-0.7	-0.06
BOS	minus 2 HR	Triston Casas	-0.2	0.706	-1.8	-0.106
CHC	add 2 HR	Carson Kelly	3	0.771	1.7	0.126
CHC	minus HR	Jon Berti	0.4	0.609	-1	-0.063
CHC	minus HR	Justin Turner	0.2	0.653	-0.3	-0.06
CHC	add HR	Michael Busch	3.2	0.826	0.7	0.052
CHC	add HR	Miguel Amaya	1.9	0.764	0.4	0.055
CHC	add HR	Pete Crow-Armstrong	6.2	0.807	2.7	0.08
CHC	add HR	Reese McGuire	0.6	0.621	0.3	0.063
CHW	minus 2 HR	Jacob Amaya	-0.8	0.499	-1.8	-0.116
CHW	minus HR	Josh Rojas	0	0.585	-1.4	-0.082
CHW	minus HR	Joshua Palacios	-0.5	0.649	-1.4	-0.081
CHW	minus 2 HR	Luis Robert Jr.	1.2	0.656	-1.7	-0.1
CHW	add HR	Mike Tauchman	1.9	0.814	0.3	0.088
CHW	minus 2 HR	Vinny Capra	-0.4	0.557	-2.3	-0.144
CIN	add HR	Austin Hays	1.8	0.832	0.4	0.06
CIN	minus 2 HR	Jeimer Candelario	-0.4	0.637	-2.2	-0.127
CIN	add 2 HR	Jose Trevino	2.1	0.753	0.4	0.104
CIN	minus 2 HR	Matt McLain	1.8	0.674	-1.8	-0.115
CIN	add HR	Noelvi Marte	0.8	0.728	0.9	0.065
CIN	minus HR	Santiago Espinal	0.1	0.612	-1.1	-0.071
CIN	minus HR	Spencer Steer	-0.1	0.681	-1.9	-0.087
CIN	add HR	TJ Friedl	3.3	0.796	1.7	0.073
CLE	minus HR	Brayan Rocchio	0.1	0.583	-2	-0.086
CLE	minus 2 HR	Jhonkensy Noel	-1.2	0.57	-1.6	-0.109
CLE	add HR	José Ramírez	6.5	0.887	1.1	0.057
CLE	minus HR	Lane Thomas	0.2	0.645	-2.1	-0.089
CLE	minus HR	Nolan Jones	0.8	0.673	-1.2	-0.061
COL	minus HR	Adael Amador	-0.9	0.595	-1	-0.081
COL	minus HR	Brenton Doyle	0.8	0.648	-2.1	-0.079
COL	add HR	Hunter Goodman	2.1	0.813	0.9	0.052
COL	add HR	Jordan Beck	1.2	0.755	0.9	0.052
COL	minus HR	Kris Bryant	-0.8	0.613	-0.5	-0.091
COL	minus HR	Michael Toglia	-1.3	0.671	-1.4	-0.063
COL	add HR	Sam Hilliard	0.3	0.754	0	0.059
COL	minus 2 HR	Sean Bouchard	-0.5	0.671	-1.5	-0.12
COL	minus HR	Zac Veen	-0.4	0.62	-0.4	-0.06
DET	add HR	Dillon Dingler	3.2	0.735	0.7	0.053
DET	minus HR	Jace Jung	0.6	0.618	-1.7	-0.079
DET	add HR	Jahmai Jones	0.9	0.787	-0.3	0.085
DET	minus HR	Jake Rogers	0.8	0.593	-1.2	-0.058
DET	add HR	Javier Báez	2.2	0.712	1.2	0.07
DET	minus HR	Ryan Kreidler	-0.1	0.532	-1.3	-0.09
DET	add HR	Spencer Torkelson	2.8	0.805	0.8	0.052
DET	add HR	Wenceel Pérez	1	0.724	0.2	0.05
DET	add HR	Zach McKinstry	2.4	0.754	1.3	0.075
HOU	minus HR	Brendan Rodgers	0.1	0.613	-1.4	-0.059
HOU	minus HR	Christian Walker	1.1	0.696	-1.8	-0.081
HOU	minus HR	Greg Jones	0.4	0.624	-0.5	-0.053
HOU	add 2 HR	Jeremy Peña	6	0.814	2.7	0.101
HOU	minus 2 HR	Yordan Alvarez	2.1	0.844	-3.2	-0.112
KCR	minus HR	Cavan Biggio	-0.4	0.613	-1.1	-0.052
KCR	minus HR	Jac Caglianone	-0.3	0.618	-0.3	-0.097
KCR	minus HR	Jonathan India	0.4	0.705	-2.5	-0.052
KCR	add HR	Luke Maile	0.5	0.72	0	0.078
KCR	add 2 HR	Maikel Garcia	3.8	0.777	1.2	0.103
KCR	minus HR	Mark Canha	0.1	0.676	-0.9	-0.054
KCR	minus 3 HR	Michael Massey	-0.7	0.588	-2.7	-0.15
KCR	minus HR	MJ Melendez	-0.4	0.654	-0.7	-0.097
KCR	minus HR	Salvador Perez	0.3	0.685	-2.2	-0.064
LAA	minus HR	Jorge Soler	0	0.695	-1.1	-0.059
LAA	minus HR	Kevin Newman	-0.5	0.557	-1.1	-0.07
LAA	minus 2 HR	LaMonte Wade Jr.	-0.9	0.623	-2.2	-0.124
LAA	minus 2 HR	Luis Rengifo	-0.9	0.587	-2.8	-0.121
LAA	minus HR	Mike Trout	1.3	0.806	-1.8	-0.088
LAA	add HR	Yoán Moncada	1.6	0.775	-0.1	0.056
LAD	add HR	Freddie Freeman	5.2	0.932	1	0.059
LAD	add HR	Hyeseong Kim	2	0.768	-0.1	0.083
LAD	minus HR	Michael Conforto	0.3	0.653	-1	-0.093
LAD	minus HR	Miguel Rojas	0.4	0.606	-1.4	-0.064
LAD	minus HR	Mookie Betts	5	0.809	-0.1	-0.064
LAD	add HR	Will Smith	5.4	0.856	1.2	0.078
MIA	add HR	Heriberto Hernandez	0.7	0.752	0.4	0.055
MIA	add HR	Liam Hicks	1.4	0.738	0	0.062
MIL	minus 2 HR	Andrew Vaughn	-1.2	0.639	-2.4	-0.108
MIL	minus HR	Daz Cameron	0.1	0.628	-1.5	-0.056
MIL	minus HR	Garrett Mitchell	1.3	0.671	-0.4	-0.07
MIL	minus 2 HR	Joey Ortiz	0.6	0.596	-1.6	-0.122
MIL	minus HR	Oliver Dunn	0.3	0.606	-1.3	-0.065
MIL	minus HR	William Contreras	3.9	0.734	-0.7	-0.072
MIN	minus HR	Carlos Correa	2.9	0.72	-1	-0.078
MIN	minus 2 HR	DaShawn Keirsey Jr.	-0.2	0.57	-2.6	-0.115
MIN	minus 2 HR	Jonah Bride	0.2	0.606	-2.2	-0.115
MIN	minus HR	Jose Miranda	0.3	0.674	-1.6	-0.06
MIN	add HR	Kody Clemens	1.5	0.758	0.6	0.058
MIN	minus HR	Mickey Gasper	0.3	0.688	-1.3	-0.065
MIN	minus HR	Royce Lewis	0.9	0.675	-1.4	-0.076
MIN	add HR	Willi Castro	1.6	0.773	-0.2	0.064
NYM	add HR	Jeff McNeil	2.5	0.797	0.2	0.085
NYM	minus HR	Jose Siri	0.8	0.638	-1.5	-0.054
NYM	minus HR	Juan Soto	5.4	0.892	-1	-0.054
NYM	add 2 HR	Pete Alonso	5.1	0.907	2.2	0.106
NYY	add 3 HR	Aaron Judge	11.1	1.159	3.4	0.153
NYY	minus HR	Oswald Peraza	0.3	0.619	-1.7	-0.052
NYY	add HR	Trent Grisham	3.1	0.783	0.7	0.063
PHI	add HR	Kyle Schwarber	3.8	0.877	1.6	0.074
PIT	minus HR	Bryan Reynolds	0.6	0.718	-1.8	-0.057
PIT	minus HR	Endy Rodríguez	-0.3	0.641	-2.3	-0.055
PIT	minus HR	Jack Suwinski	0.2	0.696	-1.7	-0.079
PIT	minus HR	Ke'Bryan Hayes	1.8	0.612	-0.1	-0.06
PIT	minus HR	Spencer Horwitz	1.1	0.726	-1.4	-0.057
PIT	minus 2 HR	Tommy Pham	-0.9	0.587	-1.1	-0.103
SDP	minus HR	Brandon Lockridge	1	0.611	-1	-0.059
SDP	minus HR	Jason Heyward	-0.5	0.57	-0.8	-0.071
SDP	add HR	Manny Machado	5.2	0.838	1.4	0.066
SEA	add 2 HR	Cal Raleigh	7.3	0.905	2.2	0.141
SEA	minus HR	Donovan Solano	-0.5	0.579	-0.5	-0.075
SEA	add HR	J.P. Crawford	3.8	0.756	0.8	0.053
SEA	minus 2 HR	Leody Taveras	0	0.609	-2.9	-0.104
SEA	minus HR	Mitch Garver	0.4	0.621	0.1	-0.052
SFG	add HR	Dominic Smith	0.5	0.713	0.3	0.058
SFG	add HR	Heliot Ramos	2.7	0.802	0.6	0.062
SFG	minus HR	Jerar Encarnacion	0	0.656	-0.5	-0.071
SFG	minus HR	Patrick Bailey	1.7	0.584	-1.8	-0.084
SFG	minus HR	Willy Adames	2.6	0.688	-1.8	-0.076
STL	add HR	Iván Herrera	2	0.82	-0.2	0.097
STL	minus HR	Jordan Walker	-0.4	0.648	-0.9	-0.059
STL	minus HR	Lars Nootbaar	2	0.722	-0.6	-0.06
TBR	minus 2 HR	Ben Rortvedt	-0.3	0.483	-1.2	-0.133
TBR	add HR	Jonathan Aranda	3.7	0.851	1.7	0.09
TEX	minus HR	Adolis García	1.2	0.688	-1.4	-0.065
TEX	minus HR	Corey Seager	2.9	0.792	-2.4	-0.075
TEX	add HR	Evan Carter	2	0.767	0.5	0.056
TEX	minus HR	Ezequiel Duran	0.1	0.601	-1.4	-0.081
TEX	minus 3 HR	Joc Pederson	-0.1	0.674	-2.2	-0.169
TEX	minus HR	Marcus Semien	2.6	0.68	-1.8	-0.064
TOR	minus HR	Alan Roden	1	0.662	-1.3	-0.078
TOR	minus 2 HR	Anthony Santander	0.2	0.695	-3.1	-0.115
TOR	add HR	George Springer	2	0.786	-0.2	0.068
TOR	add 3 HR	Tyler Heineman	2	0.797	1.1	0.202
TOR	minus HR	Will Wagner	0.3	0.667	-2.1	-0.074
WSN	add HR	James Wood	5.2	0.88	1.8	0.067
WSN	minus HR	Josh Bell	-0.6	0.665	-1.4	-0.07
WSN	minus HR	Nathaniel Lowe	1.2	0.711	-1	-0.061
WSN	minus 2 HR	Riley Adams	-0.5	0.57	-1	-0.125