Sunday, October 11, 2020

How 2021 Projected Statis-Pro Baseball Cards were Calculated

To calculate the projected 2021 statistics for the Statis-Pro batter and pitcher cards we combined the Zips 2021 projected stats from before the start of the abbreviated 2020 season, and then added the actual stats from the 2020 season. Because the Covid-shortened season was only 60 games and the Zips projections were based on an anticipated 162 games, so the projections typically count for 73 percent of the stats used.

Still, players with great projections who had really bad actual seasons, such as Jose Altuve, are good but not All-Star level players. 

Batter Cards

The original stats for the Statis-Pro cards developed decades ago were highly accurate, and are still used to determine the singles, doubles, triples, home runs, strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch, and outs on each batter card. However, we did add one of the ingenious innovates developed by the inventor of the Advanced Statis-Pro Facebook page, the "Deep" drive between the Home Runs and Strikeouts on the batter's card. 

DEEP RANGE. We use a simplified version of that Deep adjustment, as shown on table at the bottom of this blog, If a batter from a team like Colorado benefits from playing half their games in a batter-friendly park, then after calculating their card the top two home run numbers are changed to a "Deep" drive. If a batter from a team like the New York Mets who is held down by playing in a pitchers' park then after calculating their card then the next two numbers after the last Home Run number are changed to a Deep drive. Players in pretty good hitters' parks have one HR number changed to "deep," players in pretty good pitchers' parks have just one "deep" number added after the last HR, and players in neutral parks have their highest HR number and the next number that would have been an out changed to a Deep Range. If a game is played in a "Neutral" field then every time a "deep" number comes up a new RN is drawn and an 11-48 is a home run, while a 51-88 is a deep drive for a Sac Fly, but the chart below shows which numbers are Home Runs and which are Sac Flies depending on the park in which you are playing a Statis-Pro game. This is not a fully accurate as the Advanced Statis-Pro deep system, but it gets the cards closer to being accurate in that a Mets player who is traded to Colorado will hit better, and vice versa.

FIELDING - CLUTCH DEFENSE, ERROR RANGE, AND THROWING ARMS. At each player's primary position, we rated them based on the great new all inclusive stat Defensive Runs Saved from Sports Information Systems, except if a player was nominated for a gold glove in the last few years we gave them the best Clutch Defensive Rating of 5 regardless of their DRS rating. If a player is a CD5, we give them the lowest Error Rating (1 at some positions), and best throwing arm (T5 if an outfielder or TA for catcher). If a players has a poor DRS then he will get a poor Error Rating and the worse arm (T2 or TC). If a player played at least 10 games at any other position then adjust their CD rating down by 1 and increase the Error Rating by 1. If a player played fewer than 10 games at a position he can play it but has the worst throwing arm, a CD1 and an Error Rating of 8. If a player is used in a position they did not play, then use an Error Rating of 10. While it is possible a player could be a great Clutch Defensive player with a great Throwing Arm but make a lot of errors, we merge everything together to reflect how good or bad a fielder he is.

BASERUNNING AND STEALS. Each player's On-base Running (OBR) rating of A to E is based on the players BsR rating, while his Stolen Base Rating is based on the percentage bases stolen per times reaching base on a single or walk. 

CHT and RIGHT-LEFT PLATOON ADJUSTMENT. The "Cht" rating is the same as used from the early days of the game, the RP (right power), RN (right normal), SN, SP, LP and LN. However, while the original basic game always had the same left vs. right adjustments, we did adjust based on if the actual batter hits better against left handed or right handed pitchers. If the player hits roughly the same against left-handed or right-handed pitchers you will see --/-- by the Cht meaning nothing is adjusted. However, a player who hits better against left-handed pitchers will have something like a 87/11 which would mean to change an 87 or 88 against a left-hander (left of the slash) to a single with any runners on base advancing two bases, but an 11 against a right-hander changing to a strikeout. On the flip side, a player with a 12/86 would mean a batter strikes out on 11 or 12 against a left-handed pitcher but singles on a 86, 87 or 88 against a right-handed pitcher. As always, these numbers are adjusted whether the action from the PB rating is on the batters card or the pitchers card. The big advantage to this system is you only need to check on Random Numbers of 11-14 (the only ones that could be singles turned into strikeouts or on 85-88 as the only numbers that can be changed form an Out to a single with runners advancing two bases.

All other card results are the same as the normal game.

Pitcher Cards

All but one item on the Pitcher Cards are the same as the original game, but unlike the original charts, the formulas we use are extremely accurate. The formulas we use provide a very accurate and correct number of hits allowed, strikeouts and walks, while no matter what the pitchers' PB, while the original charts with the game were way off. Some of the ranges will look strange (e.g. a pitcher with a poor PB: 2-4 rating but who allowed a low percentage of hits may have NO hits allowed on his card because the action is only on his card 6 of 36 times so he is giving up his full allotment of hits on the batters' cards).

PB to DETERMINE IF ON PITCHER OR BATTERS' CARD. The "PB" which is the roll or card flip of 2-12 that determines if the action is on the pitcher or batter card is based on a pitcher's estimated Neutral Earned Run Average. This figure appears near the bottom of the pitcher's card and is the result of their calculated FIPs projection adjusted by ballpark just as the batter's deep range is adjusted in the same park. The table below lists the adjustment, from multiplying his FIPs by 1.06 if he was in a pitcher's park, to multiplied by 0.94 if he had to pitch in a hitters park. Once that adjustment is made,  the PB rating is awarded as follows; PB: 2-9 if Neutral ERA is in top 5% of all pitchers, PB: 2-8 if top 15%, PB: 2-7 if top 35%, PB: 4-7 (actually halfway between PB: 2-7 and PB: 2-6 with 18 of 36 possible PB rolls) on the top 65% or middle 30%, PB: 2-6 in bottom 35%, PB: 2-5 in bottom 15% or PB: 2-4 if bottom 5% or players not likely to make the majors but listed as potential.

Note that the PB: 2-12 on the card (or dice versions) are based on dice rolls from 2 to 12, so a 4-7 comes up 18 of 36 combinations (half the time) while a PB 2-6 would come up 15 of 36 times and PB: 2-7 would come up 21 of 36 times. So think of the PB: 4-7 as a PB: 2-6.5.

CD-C instead of PASSED BALL. The only item in the range of results on the RN numbers of 11-88 is a "CD-C:" rating rather than the old passed ball range, which in the original game ironically gave a second "PB" on the card after the PB mentioned in the previous paragraph. If the Random Number is in the "CD-C" range and a player is on base, then use the Catcher's Clutch Defensive rating on the chart, which could result in a Passed Ball, or a nice player or misplay by the catcher. When Statis-Pro was first developed it was not yet realized how big an impact a catcher has on a pitcher's ERA, so his Clutch Defense rarely comes up under original rules, so this is a much more accurate way to use this range.

BK, WP or CD-C with NOONE ON BASE IS AN "OUT." The most common mistake made by Statis-Pro players is that if a BK, WP or Passed Ball which we changed to CD-C comes up with no one on base, they treat it as no action. However, for accuracy if no one is on base of any of these, the result is changed to an Out using the Out Chart.

PITCHERS AVERAGE IP. We did add the average number of innings at the bottom of each pitchers card, because even if he still has endurance left based on his SR or RR, most pitchers now do not go much past their average, so we suggest pulling a starting pitcher at the end of an inning if he is more than an inning past his average even if he has SR remaining (e.g. if his averaged 4.8 innings per game, don't let him pitch past the end of the 6th inning). 

BAT - PITCHER AT BAT. No pitchers hit during the brief 2020 season, so we do not know if the NL will have them to hit in 2021 or not. However, we base a pitcher's batting card on his career OPS so we have enough plate appearances to be accurate. Rather than do a separate hitting card for a pitcher, we put the numbers across the bottom of his card, but list just the last number of each range. So a line that reads "Bat, skip PB: 1b-14, K-48, W-51, Out-88" is giving the last number of each range, so a 11-14 is a single, a 15-48 is a strikeout, a 51 is a walk, and a 52-88 is an Out. Please note that any pitcher whose hit range does not reach past 18 has the "skip PB" note to indicate that when he comes to the plate you simply use the next Random Number from 11-88 and ignore the opposing pitcher's card. However, if his hits go to 21 or higher, then the term "skip PB" does not appear and you do use the normal PB 2-12 flip to see if it is on his card or the opposing pitchers' card.

The following table gives the ballpark adjustments referenced above. the first 3 columns are just to show you how the cards were adjusted in case you are interested. The only column you need for the game is the column to the right, so that if a "Deep" rating comes up you can reference the table and flip another Random Number of 11-88 to determine if the result is a Home Run, or a Deep Drive for a Sac Fly under which each runner advances a base. For example, a Random Number of 11-56 at a game played in Arizona would be a Home Run, while a 57-88 would be deep Sac Fly advancing any runners (technically a drive that moves runners up a base is only a Sac Fly if a runner moves from third base to home, but we use the term just to mean all runners advance one base).

ParkBatter HR>Deep    Batter K>Deep   Multiply ERA   During Game There
ARI111  HR if 11-56, SacFly if 57-88
ATL100.97HR if 11-68, SacFly if 71-88
Balt100.97HR if 11-62, SacFly if 63-88
Bost 200.94HR if 11-76, SacFly if 77-88
CHC111HR if 11-55, SacFly if 56-88
CIN200.94HR if 11-82, SacFly if 83-88
Cle 100.97HR if 11-66, SacFly if 67-88
Col200.94HR if 11-86, SacFly if 87-88
CWS011.03HR if 11-35, SacFly if 36-88
Det100.97HR if 11-58, SacFly if 61-88
Hou100.97HR if 11-62, SacFly if 63-88
KC100.97HR if 11-72, SacFly if 73-88
LAA111HR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
LAD021.06HR if 11-17, SacFly if 18-88
Mia011.03HR if 11-26, SacFly if 27-88
MIL111HR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
Min111HR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
NYM021.06HR if 11-12, SacFly if 13-88
NYY111HR if 11-42, SacFly if 43-88
Oak021.06HR if 11-13, SacFly if 14-88
Phil100.97HR if 11-63, SacFly if 64-88
PIT011.03HR if 11-33, SacFly if 34-88
SD011.03HR if 11-34, SacFly if 35-88
Sea 011.03HR if 11-22, SacFly if 23-88
SF021.06HR if 11-23, SacFly if 24-88
STL011.03HR if 11-26, SacFly if 27-88
TB011.03HR if 11-26, SacFly if 27-88
Tex200.94HR if 11-86, SacFly if 87-88
Tor111HR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88
Wash200.94HR if 11-83, SacFly if 84-88
Neutral   HR if 11-48, SacFly if 51-88

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