Tuesday, March 14, 2017

South Region: UNC beats Kentucky (Wichita based on match-ups, UCLA based on Top 3 Players)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the South Region, which are the games that appear in the lower right corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

UNC wins the entire national championshipo based on the Las Vegas odds, and Kentucky wins the whole title based on the most NBA talent on the court. UCLA wins the Region based on the top 3 players, and Wichita State based on specific matchups.

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Greenville, South Carolina
South: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Texas Southern
South: No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Seton Hall

Top 10 Players
37, Justin Jackson #44, North Carolina
68, Joel Berry #2, North Carolina
92, Kennedy Meeks #3, North Carolina
96, Angel Delgado #31, Seton Hall
139, Isaiah Hicks #4, North Carolina
155, Khadeen Carrington #0, Seton Hall
190, Daryl Macon #4, Arkansas
229, Desi Rodriguez #20, Seton Hall
277, Moses Kingsley #33, Arkansas
348, Marvin Jones #24, Texas Southern

Everyone in this group is red hot, with UNC letting one slip away against Duke, Arkansas improving from 59th to 38th, and Seton Hall moving up falling just short of making it six straight wins with a defeat of Villanova until Josh Hart scored a game-winning on an offensive rebound.

Health: UNC’s Theo Pinson makes them even better, but missing games kept him out of the top 100.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: UNC’s weakness is they do give up a lot of steals (179th at protecting the ball) which could be a real problem against Seton Hall (68th in steals) but a bigger problem against Arkansas (37th in steals). Still, UNC’s huge home crowd for a game played just down the road in South Carolina should pull them through even if they get a close game.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin 1st two rounds
South: No. 5 Minnesota vs. No. 12 Middle Tennessee
South: No. 4 Butler vs. No. 13 Winthrop

Top 10 Players
58, Reggie Upshaw #30, Middle Tennessee
88, Giddy Potts #20, Middle Tennessee
102, Nate Mason #2, Minnesota
136, Jacorey Williams #22, Middle Tennessee
146, Keon Johnson #5, Winthrop
217, Andrew Chrabascz #45, Butler
244, Kelan Martin #30, Butler
273, Jordan Murphy #3, Minnesota
276, Amir Coffey #5, Minnesota
293, Kamar Baldwin #3, Butler

If it comes down to the top trio, Middle Tennessee dominates with three of the top four players.
Possible “style/home” edge upset: Middle Tennessee could get some steals (23rd best) against Minnesota (93rd best at protecting the ball). Winthrop should get up some 3-pointers (49th) against a Butler team that is only 224th in forcing opponents to shoot 2s instead of 3s, but Butler has huge home advantage in a Big East arena they play in every year.

Sacramento, California
South: No. 6 Cincinnati vs. No. 11 Kansas State/Wake Forest
South: No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 14 Kent State

Top 10 Players
9, John Collins #20, Wake Forest
10, Lonzo Ball #2, UCLA
38, Jacob Evans #1, Cincinnati
47, TJ Leaf #22, UCLA
51, Gary Clark #11, Cincinnati
59, Bryant Crawford #13, Wake Forest
79, Wesley Iwundu #25, Kansas St.
114, Jimmy Hall #35, Kent St.
133, Dean Wade #32, Kansas St.
175, Bryce Alford #20, UCLA

Potential coaching match up of great former players in Danny Manning (coaching Wake Forest) and Steve Alford (UCLA).

Kent State improved from 171st to 141st with a great end of season run.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Cincinnati (19th in steals) could wreak havoc on Kansas State (258th in protecting the ball) or even Wake Forest (140th). Wake Forest could make up some of that ground with 3-pointers (30th in the country, while Cincy’s defense is only 197th at forcing 2-point shots). UCLA has the big home court advantage and as the 6th best three-point shooting team should have their way with any of the other four teams from behind the arc except perhaps Kansas State (83rd best at forcing 2-point shots).

Indianapolis, Indiana
South: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Wichita State
South: No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Northern Kentucky

33, Malik Monk #5, Kentucky
76, Edrice Adebayo #3, Kentucky
80, De'Aaron Fox #0, Kentucky
98, Markis McDuffie #32, Wichita St.
108, Landry Shamet #11, Wichita St.
167, Scoochie Smith #11, Dayton
207, Conner Frankamp #33, Wichita St.
214, Charles Cooke #4, Dayton
228, Kyle Davis #3, Dayton
299, Derek Willis #35, Kentucky

Wichita has won 15 straight to move from 28th to 8th. Kentucky rolled through the SEC championship.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Both Dayton and Wichita State allow a lot of 3-point attempts (283rd and 267th respectively at forcing opponents to take 2’s). The problem for Dayton is that Wichita shoots 3-pointers even better than they do (3rd in the nation vs. 29th). Unfortunately for the winner of that game, Kentucky is one of the best at preventing both three-point attempts (51st) and steals (6th).

Midwest Region: Kansas Beats Louisville (but some methods show Iowa St. in Finals or Louisville)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the Midwest Region, which are the games that appear in the upper right corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

This bracket looks wide open however. Kansas is the overall winner despite Louisville and Iowa State splitting the nine categories evenly, and based on the "Top 3 Players" equation Iowa State goes all the way to the championship game.
Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Tulsa 1st two rounds
Midwest: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 NC Central/UC Davis
Midwest: No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Top 10 Players
3, Frank Mason #0, Kansas
40, Davon Reed #5, Miami FL
49, Josh Jackson #11, Kansas
63, Bruce Brown #11, Miami FL
77, Devonte' Graham #4, Kansas
176, Nick Ward #44, Michigan St.
191, Miles Bridges #22, Michigan St.
308, Landen Lucas #33, Kansas
327, Brynton Lemar #0, UC Davis
381, Anthony Lawrence #3, Miami FL

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Kansas will have the big home advantage.

Milwaukee 1st two rounds
Midwest: No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Nevada
Midwest: No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Vermont

10 Best Players

7, Monte Morris #11, Iowa St.
17, Caleb Swanigan #50, Purdue
42, Marcus Marshall #1, Nevada
55, Nazareth Mitrou-Long #15, Iowa St.
120, Vincent Edwards #12, Purdue
171, Dakota Mathias #31, Purdue
174, Matt Thomas #21, Iowa St.
198, Cameron Oliver #0, Nevada
238, Deonte Burton #30, Iowa St.
256, Jordan Caroline #24, Nevada

Possible “style/home” edge upset: None. “Home” advantage: Two higher seed home edge, but Iowa State more so in second game including Deonte Burton coming back to the arena where he played for Marquette before transferring.

Sacramento, California
Midwest: No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Rhode Island
Midwest: No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 14 Iona

36, Jordan Bell #1, Oregon
72, Khyri Thomas #2, Creighton
111, Justin Patton #23, Creighton
134, Hassan Martin #12, Rhode Island
151, Dillon Brooks #24, Oregon
226, Dylan Ennis #31, Oregon
263, Tyler Dorsey #5, Oregon
335, EC Matthews #0, Rhode Island
349, Rickey McGill #0, Iona
382, Kuran Iverson #23, Rhode Island

When one of the greatest coaching family’s of all time (Dan Hurley) is coaching Allen Iverson’s cousin, it is no surprise Rhode Island has improved from 50th to 37th. Greg McDermitt steadied the ship with a run to the Big East Finals after the team had fallen from 16th to 27th after Watson’s injury. He hopes to have a chance to take on Creighton’s former coach in Dana Altman of Oregon.

Healthy: Oregon and Creighton were hit with two of the biggest injuries in the country, however Oregon’s bench is good enough to offset most of the loss of Chris Boucher, while Creighton was one of the most hurt teams in the country after point guard Mo Watson went down for the season.
Possible “style/home” edge upset: Rhode Island is very good at denying 3-pointers (18th in country) that Creighton needs (13th best 3-point shooting).

Indianapolis, Indiana
Midwest: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Oklahoma State
Midwest: No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State

8, Derrick Walton #10, Michigan
19, Donovan Mitchell #45, Louisville
21, Jawun Evans #1, Oklahoma St.
30, Jeffrey Carroll #30, Oklahoma St.
141, Phil Forte #13, Oklahoma St.
161, Moritz Wagner #13, Michigan
168, DJ Wilson #5, Michigan
235, Deng Adel #22, Louisville
255, Erik Durham #15, Jacksonville St.
289, Quentin Snider #4, Louisville

Michigan improved from 40th to 21st in the last month, winning the Big Ten title along the way after surviving a plane crash to enter the tournament as the hottest team in the country behind only SMU.
Possible “style/home” edge upset: Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over (9th best at protecting the ball) and forces opponents to take 2-pointers (9th best), which seems to stop the two chances Oklahoma State would have at the upset (29th in steals, and 9th in three-point shooting).

West Brackets: Gonzaga Beats Arizona (WVU, FSU Also Win 2)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the West Region, which are the games that appear in the lower left corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

Gonzaga wins this bracket based on all 10 factors, though many observers are picking Arizona to beat them.  The system that analyzes the way teams match-up on steals and three-pointers projects Virginia as the Eastern Champion. This

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Salt Lake City 1st Two Rounds
West: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 South Dakota State
West: No. 8 Northwestern vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt

Ten Best Players

5, Nigel Williams-Goss #5, Gonzaga
34, Mike Daum #24, South Dakota St.
110, Zach Collins #32, Gonzaga
118, Luke Kornet #3, Vanderbilt
138, Riley LaChance #13, Vanderbilt
170, Johnathan Williams #3, Gonzaga
181, Jeff Roberson #11, Vanderbilt
187, Przemek Karnowski #24, Gonzaga
239, Vic Law #4, Northwestern
257, Jordan Mathews #4, Gonzaga

Healthy: Northwestern’s Dererk Pardon would have also ranked in this top 10 if he had been with the team the entire season.

South Dakota State’s last six games were against higher ranked teams, and it beat all seven en route to the Summit League title and improving more than 30 spots on the rankings at www.kenpom.com.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Gonzaga so good on both offense and defense on steals and 3-pointers that it’s hard to see an upset, even though Salt Lake is a relatively neutral site.

Buffalo 1st two Rounds
West: No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Bucknell
West: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Princeton

Best 10 Players

4, Bonzie Colson #35, Notre Dame
20, Jevon Carter #2, West Virginia
119, Steven Cook #25, Princeton
149, Nathan Adrian #11, West Virginia
150, Zach Thomas #23, Bucknell
177, Devin Cannady #3, Princeton
180, Matt Farrell #5, Notre Dame
186, Nana Foulland #20, Bucknell
189, Steve Vasturia #32, Notre Dame
225, Tarik Phillip #12, West Virginia

Health: Princeton two small injuries.

Notre Dame vs. West Virginia features two of the greatest coaches in Mike Brey and Bob Huggins.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Bucknell can hit threes (55th best), but turns the ball over a ton (310th best at protecting the ball), West Virginia has a huge edge (3rd in steals). Home edge for Princeton heading into Buffalo snow – on rail perhaps?

Orlando 1st Two Rounds
West: No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Xavier
West: No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast

Top 10 Players

73, Brandon Goodwin #0, Florida Gulf Coast
74, Trevon Bluiett #5, Xavier
126, Melo Trimble #2, Maryland
127, JP Macura #55, Xavier
129, Jonathan Isaac #1, Florida St.
232, Dwayne Bacon #4, Florida St.
249, Anthony Cowan #0, Maryland
261, Terance Mann #14, Florida St.
272, Demetris Morant #21, Florida Gulf Coast
283, Kevin Huerter #4, Maryland

Healthy: Xavier’s Edmond Sumner would have been in top 3 in this bracket if he was not injured.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Winner of second game with home advantage in their second game.

Salt Lake City 1st Two Rounds
West: No. 7 St. Mary’s vs. No. 10 VCU
West: No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 North Dakota

12, Jock Landale #34, Saint Mary's
23, Lauri Markkanen #10, Arizona
82, JeQuan Lewis #1, VCU
95, Quinton Hooker #21, North Dakota
125, Justin Tillman #4, VCU
158, Calvin Hermanson #24, Saint Mary's
213, Joe Rahon #25, Saint Mary's
258, Rawle Alkins #1, Arizona
271, Kadeem Allen #5, Arizona
320, Dane Pineau #22, Saint Mary's

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Big style edge to VCU in opener as VCU just doesn’t allow 3-pointers (28th best in denying them) that Saint Mary’s relies on (14th best in country) while VCU (28th in steals) can take advantage of the fact that Saint Mary’s is terrible at protecting the ball (229th). If VCU and Arizona win, Arizona has the huge advantage in the home court to their north and the fact that they do NOT turn the ball over (26th).

Vanderbilt is the only team in the group with any future NBA players to go up against Gonzaga’s NBA talent.

East Bracket: Villanova over Duke (UVa and SMU also win 2)

This blog breaks down all four double header of games played in the East Region, which are the games that appear in the upper left corner of brackets. It shows the top 10 players on the floor for each of these double headers, and gives details on which factors give advantages to which teams.

Villanova wins this bracket based on 9 of 10 factors, usually beating Duke, however the system that analyzes the way teams match-up on steals and three-pointers projects Virginia as the Eastern Champion. This

Click here for the grid showing the results of the entire tournament using 10 different approaches. If you simply want to fill out a bracket quickly, you can go straight to that link and fill out your bracket in about two minutes choosing any of the 10 options. That post also explains the 10 different approaches. Many more stories appear here, and you can sort the rating for all 4000+ players and see who is injured by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Buffalo 1st Two Rounds 

East: No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 6 Mt. St. Mary’s/New Orleans

East: No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech

10 Most Valuable Players in this group
2, Josh Hart #3, Villanova
11, Ethan Happ #22, Wisconsin
25, Jalen Brunson #1, Villanova
31, Mikal Bridges #25, Villanova
45, Erik Thomas #14, New Orleans
65, Zach LeDay #32, Virginia Tech
115, Kris Jenkins #2, Villanova
122, Nigel Hayes #10, Wisconsin
173, Zak Showalter #3, Wisconsin
184, Bronson Koenig #24, Wisconsin
Health: Huge loss to Virginia Tech of 224nd ranked Chris Clarke
Hot: Nova coming off Big East title, Wisconsin dropped from 10th to 23rd since early February.

“Home” Advantage: Getting to Buffalo through the snow easiest for Villanova, hardest for New Orleans if they survive.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Virginia Tech has best style chance at upset as the 9th best 3-point shooting team against a Villanova team that is only 300th in forcing teams to shoot a 2-pointer instead of a 3-pointer. Villanova only 81st best at protecting the ball, which would give Wisconsin (41st at steals) a much better shot at upset than Virginia Tech (347th of 351).

Orlando 1st two rounds

East: No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UNC Wilmington

East: No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State

Top 10 players
44, Devontae Cacok #15, UNC Wilmington
69, KeVaughn Allen #5, Florida
87, Devin Robinson #1, Florida
93, London Perrantes #32, Virginia
106, Isaiah Wilkins #21, Virginia
230, Denzel Ingram #10, UNC Wilmington
248, TJ Cromer #0, East Tennessee St.
253, Canyon Barry #24, Florida
281, Devon Hall #0, Virginia
288, Chris Chiozza #11, Florida

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Florida does not allow teams to get off three-pointers and has the big home advantage in their state, hurting East Tennessee State (44th in 3-pointers).

Tulsa 1st two rounds
East: No. 6 SMU vs. No. 11 Providence/USC
East: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 New Mexico State

Top 10 players
15, Semi Ojeleye #33, SMU
18, Johnathan Motley #5, Baylor
32, Sterling Brown #3, SMU
52, Shake Milton #1, SMU
66, Ben Moore #0, SMU
105, Manu Lecomte #20, Baylor
178, Jarrey Foster #10, SMU
197, Jo Lual-Acuil #0, Baylor
203, Emmitt Holt #15, Providence
205, Ishmail Wainright #24, Baylor

Scott Drew continues to guide Baylor.

Baylor has slid a little from 7th in the final weeks, while SMU is the hottest team in the league with only a 2-point loss at Cincinnati preventing them from finishing 26-0.

USC’s Andy Enfield proved himself with the Sweet 16 run at Florida Gulf Coast, has a former Maxim cover wife, beautiful children, millions of dollars, and an up and coming program – but with one of the youngest teams in the country some are questioning if they were quite ready for a bid. Then again, that’s what they said about Syracuse last year and VCU several years ago before both made the Final Four.

Healthy: New Mexico State is better with Sidy N'dir playing.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Baylor and SMU both sites close to home in the openers to try to get to each other in the 2nd round. 

Greenville, South Carolina 1st two Rounds
East: No. 7 South Carolina vs. No. 10 Marquette
East: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Troy

1, Sindarius Thornwell #0 (+1 if all season), South Carolina
6, Luke Kennard #5, Duke
101, Amile Jefferson #21, Duke
131, Jayson Tatum #0 (+1 if all season), Duke
211, Grayson Allen #3, Duke
218, Luke Fischer #40, Marquette
240, Chris Silva #30, South Carolina
259, Andrew Rowsey #30, Marquette
266, Wesley Person #3, Troy
315, Markus Howard #0, Marquette

Healthy: Duke and South Carolina rank even higher with Thornwell and Tatum out – and Marquette could drop if Fischer (shoulder) cannot play Thursday.

Not only is South Carolina’s Sindarius Thornwell the No. 1 ranked player in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, but he would have rated even higher if had not missed six games. Marquette’s team is No. 1 in the nation in 3-pointers, and Markus Howard would break the all-time record of 56% if he hit 7 of 9 this weekend – a tough task against two of the toughest defenses in the country to get 3-pointers off against.

Unfortunately for whoever wins between South Carolina and Marquette, Duke is next up with four players who would be in the top 100 if Grayson Allen had not lost his cool and Tatum had played the whole season.

Possible “style/home” edge upset: Big South Carolina style edge as they are 21st in steals, and Marquette is terrible (224th) in protecting the ball, which could be a huge edge in light of the virtual home crowd for South Carolina. Marquette relies on being 1st in the country in 3-point shooting, but South Carolina’s suffocating defense is 87th best at forcing opponents to shoot 2-pointers, meaning Marquette must hope Luke Fischer can play through an injured shoulder to get an inside game. Duke absolutely denies the 3-pointers (7th best in forcing 2-pointers), should Marquette get through.

Bracket Winners: Gonzaga (overall), Villanova (Top 3 Players, Experience, Hot), UNC (Vegas), Kentucky (NBA)

Bracket Winners: Gonzaga (surprise overall), Villanova (Top 3 Players, Experience, Hot), UNC (Vegas), Kentucky (NBA)

The following table lists the teams in the order in which they appear on 2017 March Madness brackets. Brackets must be in by Thursday morning on March 16 before the games start, but some leagues may have an earlier deadline. If you simply want to fill out your bracket and be done with it, you can just count the lines below and turn in your bracket to get it off your step.

If you would like to see pictures of each of the four brackets filled out with explanations of which factors favor which teams and the top 10 players in each double header, you can click to see why UNC has a slight edge in the South Region, Kansas nudging Louisville and Iowa State in the Midwest Region, Gonzaga's chance to overcome skeptics to win the West Region, and Villanova's path to win the East Region and try to repeat. Just remember, the initial odds posted by Las Vegas gave no team more than a 9% chance of winning the title (UNC edged Villanova 9% to 8.3% in USA Today after Duke and Kansas initially led).

You can click here for my many college basketball stories, on www.valueaddbasketball.com for the rankings of all 4000+basketball players, or click on www.pudnersports.com to see the 8 breakdowns - one for each half of the bracket.

The following columns are:

% title - Las Vegas gives no team more than a 9 percent chance of winning the title (UNC is 9.0% exactly). To figure this out, you must look at the odds listed by USA Today, and convert them to percentages, at which case you see that Vegas has built more than a 70% margin into any bets. When we take those percentages out, the % titles below add up to 100%. Another reason not to be, the house always wins!

  1. Overall is a combination of the 9 bracket proposals that follow, so if you want to follow the overall bracket you would click on Villanova 4 times, or write them out on 4 lines, then fill in Wisconsin on one line, etc. In this case, Villanova would make the Final Four and Gonzaga would win the title.
  2. Vegas is based on the team given the best percentage chance of winning the title in Vegas beating each new opponent - in this case click on Villanova 5 times to have them lose to UNC in the title game.
  3. KenPom.com goes by the team ranked better at that site, which gives Villanova in the Final Four before losing to eventual champion Gonzaga.
  4. Top 3 Players is based on a theory by Al McGuire that it takes 3 1/2 stars to win a championship. The top players can be more important than deep benches in the tournament, so this ranks teams based on the best three players each team has according to www.valueaddbasketball.com, and if it comes to the top three players Villanova would be on six lines as the champion.
  5. NBA indicates the team with the most NBA talent - based on how many players they have and how high they are likely to go in the next two drafts - and once again that would make Kentucky the champion.
  6. Healthy adjusts the KenPom rating in No. 3 above with adjustments for any players who is now injured or has actually made the team better by returning during the season. That value is determined by the players ranking at www.valueaddbasketball.com.
  7. Experience adjust the KenPom rating by how experienced the team is - also determined by KenPom.com.
  8. Coach adjusts the KenPom rating for coaches with history of success in the tournament.
  9. Hot adjusts KenPom for how much they have improved or declined in their KenPom rating over the past month.
  10. Venue adjusts the KenPom rating based on if a particular team was given a tournament site close to home where they will have an advantage.

RegionTeam%titleOverallVegasKenpomTop3 PlayersNBAHealthyExp.CoachHotVenueMatchup
EastMount St. Mary's0.0%
EastNew Orleans0.0%
EastVirginia Tech0.3%
EastUNC Wilmington0.2%
EastEast Tennessee St.0.2%
EastNew Mexico St.0.1%
EastSouth Carolina0.4%111112
WestSouth Dakota St.0.0%
WestNotre Dame1.2%11122121111
WestWest Virginia1.9%22211212222
WestFlorida St.1.5%22213222222
WestFlorida Gulf Coast0.1%
WestSaint Mary's0.4%11331131311
WestNorth Dakota0.1%
MWNorth Carolina Central0.0%
MWUC Davis0.0%
MWMiami FL0.4%11111111
MWMichigan St.0.4%111
MWIowa St.1.2%2115112441
MWRhode Island0.2%111
MWOklahoma St.0.4%31
MWJacksonville St.0.1%
SthNorth Carolina9.0%56534553553
SthTexas Southern0.0%
SthSeton Hall0.3%11
SthMiddle Tennessee0.3%2111
SthWake Forest0.2%11
SthKansas St.0.2%
SthKent St.0.1%
SthWichita St.0.8%11111131315
SthNorthern Kentucky0.1%
RegionTeam%titleOverallVegasKenpomTop3 PlayersNBAHealthyExp.CoachHotVenueMatchup

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Final 2017 Value Add Calculations based on Positions, Replacement Players.

A few key end of season calculations going into March Madness. We run the numbers "by position" near the end of the year to adjust each player by their position.

The first note is that in the modern world of freedom of moving college basketball, our classification of position is not always what you will see listed elsewhere. Rather, players are classified based on who on the team appears to play closest to the basket on offense and defense (defined as the center) verses those who play the furthest away from the basket as indicated by a lot more assists than defensive rebounds.

Based on these categories, the center's had the easiest time this year, boosting their stats with more chances for rebounds, but the other five positions had almost as good a chance to get key stats leading to the following adjustments to each players initial AdjM rating.

PG = multiply initial calculation by 1.02
SG = 1.02
SF = 1.04
PF = 1.00
C = 0.93

To get the actual value of the player to the particular team on which he plays, you must adjust for how strong the team's bench is. To do this you subtract the Value Add of the 6th best Value Add, in this case Justin McKie's 1.65, to determine Thornwell was actually worth 10.08 points per game to South Carolina (11.73 minus 1.65). This is similar to baseball's WAR (wins above replacement) but is actually the result of the "domino" effect of each of the next several players needing to take on more responsibility, as explained in great detail in this piece for Big Apple Buckets.

To find injured players that no longer factor into the team's value, you can simply type the front slash into the "Team" search field, which prior to 2017 March Madness showed these as most damaging injuries. In fact, most were stunned when Milwaukee beat 1-seed Valparaiso in the Horizon League, but the fact is Valpo had the biggest loss in the season in Alec Peters and so was eight points worse than their Sagarin rating would have indicated based on their play with Peters on the court.

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Chance of all 351 teams to win conference and get an at-large bid

If you are rooting for a team on the bubble for an at-large bid, who should you root for in the 32 conference tournaments? The answer, teams that will make the tournament whether or not they win.

You want Dayton to win the Atlantic 10 because TeamRanks gives them a 100% chance of getting an at-large bid if they do not win the tournament. My analysis of BracketMatrix picks of 124 experts indicates they believe Dayton is 20th best team from an election perspective, and the top 45 to 50 will make the tournament.

Click on CBS Sports list of all 32 conference tournament schedules (yes, the Ivy League finally has a tournament too!) and use the table below as a guide. As you can see, if Davidson or someone below them won the Atlantic 10 they would "steal" a bid to the NCAA tournament, and with VCU and likely Rhode Island also likely getting bids, meaning the Atlantic 10 would get four bids, leaving only 64 (instead of 65) for the other teams. TeamRanks actually gives VCU a slightly better chance to win the tournament, and the average mock bracket places VCU as a 9-seed (8.84) and Dayton as an 8-seed (7.69) - meaning Dayton has slightly better credentials for a higher seed, while the experts see VCU as the hotter team that is slightly more likely to win the conference tournament.

TeamConfKenPom At-Large if no autoWin ConfExperts bracket rankAve Seed
DaytonA1032100%29%20 7.69
VCUA104597%31%29 8.84
Rhode IslandA104970%23%37 14.64
St. BonaventureA10930%3%
George MasonA101180%1%
George WashingtonA101250%2%
La SalleA101390%1%
St. JosephsA101780%0%
St. LouisA102750%0%
North CarolinaACC3100%31%5 1.10
Florida StACC18100%10%11 3.42
LouisvilleACC8100%19%15 2.03
DukeACC15100%16%16 3.68
VirginiaACC6100%13%19 4.88
Notre DameACC26100%5%24 5.14
Miami FLACC2988%2%34 7.65
Virginia TechACC4186%1%36 8.25
Wake ForestACC3135%1%55 16.51
SyracuseACC5216%1%57 12.17
Georgia TechACC761%0%79 17.45
North Carolina StACC1010%0%
Boston CollegeACC1620%0%
VermontAE6848%73%50 12.96
New HampshireAE1600%5%
Stony BrookAE2090%9%
Massacusetts LowellAE2900%0%20.00
CincinnatiAmer24100%38%18 5.22
HoustonAmer3955%11%45 17.23
East CarolinaAmer1980%0%
South FloridaAmer2910%0%
Florida Gulf CoastASun1160%71%14.87
USC UpStASun2340%0%
Kennesaw StASun2500%2%
North FloridaASun2600%3%
PurdueB1013100%37%17 4.26
MinnesotaB1033100%7%21 5.45
WisconsinB102199%25%27 6.18
MarylandB103898%6%28 7.03
Michigan StB105189%5%33 9.11
NorthwesternB103670%4%38 9.65
MichiganB102763%7%43 8.82
IllinoisB106612%1%59 16.85
Ohio StB10673%1%70 17.80
Penn StB10820%0%
KansasB129100%30%1 1.01
BaylorB1211100%13%10 2.31
West VirginiaB124100%35%13 4.18
Iowa StB1223100%10%23 6.67
Oklahoma StB121987%6%35 7.05
Kansas StB12356%2%61 16.88
Texas TechB12340%2%
VillanovaBE2100%49%3 1.00
ButlerBE20100%18%4 3.12
CreightonBE2599%12%26 6.08
XavierBE4864%6%42 9.01
MarquetteBE3050%8%46 11.43
ProvidenceBE5549%2%49 11.21
Seton HallBE5745%3%53 10.85
St. JohnsBE870%0%
North DakotaBSky1720%25%16.40
Eastern WashingtonBSky1800%16%17.51
Weber StBSky1820%27%17.72
Portland StBSky2360%4%
Montana StBSky2410%6%
Northern ColoradoBSky2800%0%20.00
Sacramento StBSky3020%1%
Idaho StBSky3280%0%
Northern ArizonaBSky3290%0%
Southern UtahBSky333
North Carolina AshevilleBSth980%38%16.21
Gardner WebbBSth1920%5%
High PointBSth2530%2%
Charleston SouthernBSth3120%0%
UC IrvineBW1530%48%16.54
UC DavisBW2210%16%17.33
Long Beach StBW2390%14%17.84
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2680%7%20.00
Cal St. FullertonBW2780%7%
Cal PolyBW2950%4%
UC RiversideBW3190%3%
UC Santa BarbaraBW3370%1%
North Carolina WilmingtonCAA5963%40%44 11.94
College of CharlestonCAA863%22%71
William & MaryCAA1320%10%
James MadisonCAA2290%1%
Middle TennesseeCUSA4749%43%48 10.85
Louisiana TechCUSA900%18%
Old DominionCUSA1130%11%
Western KentuckyCUSA2380%1%
Florida AtlanticCUSA2590%0%
Florida IntlCUSA2980%0%
North TexasCUSA3230%0%
Southern MissCUSA325
ValparaisoHorz953%38%68 14.98
Northern KentuckyHorz1490%7%
Wright StHorz1650%9%
Green BayHorz1770%12%
Cleveland StHorz2280%1%
Illinois ChicagoHorz2470%1%
Youngstown StHorz2970%0%
PrincetonIvy6265%49%41 13.33
MonmouthMAAC7849%39%47 12.84
St. PetersMAAC1090%16%
AkronMAC1144%21%65 13.83
Eastern MichiganMAC1290%9%
Kent StMAC1460%8%
Western MichiganMAC1540%8%
Ball StMAC1750%7%
Northern IllinoisMAC2120%2%
Central MichiganMAC2330%1%
Bowling GreenMAC2450%0%
Miami OHMAC2810%0%
North Carolina CentralMEAC1590%57%16.00
Norfolk StMEAC2930%16%
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3140%5%
Savannah StMEAC3150%0%20.00
Morgan StMEAC3240%7%
South Carolina StMEAC336
Delaware StMEAC3380%1%
Bethune CookmanMEAC3400%1%
Coppin StMEAC3420%1%
Florida A&MMEAC3440%0%
North Carolina A&TMEAC3490%0%
Wichita StMVC1095%78%30 9.42
Illinois StMVC4494%13%31 12.56
Loyola ChicagoMVC970%4%
Missouri StMVC1360%1%
Southern IllinoisMVC151
Northern IowaMVC1670%1%
Indiana StMVC1940%0%
NevadaMWC6067%36%40 12.27
Colorado StMWC923%11%67 17.74
San Diego StMWC830%17%17.81
Boise StMWC1000%12%
Fresno StMWC1040%9%
New MexicoMWC1240%7%
Utah StMWC1450%3%
San Jose StMWC2050%0%
Air ForceMWC2190%0%
Mount St. MarysNEC2160%50%16.04
LIU BrooklynNEC2520%0%17.83
St. Francis PANEC2540%11%
Robert MorrisNEC2630%8%
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2660%0%
Sacred HeartNEC2990%0%
Central ConnecticutNEC3410%0%
St. Francis NYNEC3460%0%
BelmontOVC8416%62%58 13.75
Tennessee StOVC1640%0%
Jacksonville StOVC1870%6%
Murray StOVC1970%10%
Morehead StOVC1990%10%
Tennessee MartinOVC2100%10%
Southeast Missouri StOVC2220%3%
Eastern IllinoisOVC2230%0%
Tennessee TechOVC2580%0%
Eastern KentuckyOVC2700%0%
Austin PeayOVC2880%0%
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC317
OregonP1217100%34%7 1.94
UCLAP1212100%36%8 2.69
ArizonaP1222100%18%14 2.99
USCP126570%1%39 10.53
CaliforniaP124646%6%52 12.54
Arizona StP121280%0%
Washington StP122010%0%
Oregon StP122710%0%
Boston UniversityPat1860%12%
Holy CrossPat2150%2%
Loyola MDPat2480%0%
UT ArlingtonSB7246%41%51 12.34
Arkansas StSB1170%14%
Georgia StSB1200%15%
Louisiana LafayetteSB1420%7%
Georgia SouthernSB1580%11%
Texas StSB1930%3%
Coastal CarolinaSB1960%2%
South AlabamaSB2310%1%
Little RockSB2490%1%
Louisiana MonroeSB2550%1%
Appalachian StSB2640%0%
East Tennessee StSC696%31%62 14.47
FurmanSC1061%17%74 17.80
North Carolina GreensboroSC1210%15%17.52
The CitadelSC2860%0%
Western CarolinaSC3200%0%
KentuckySEC7100%45%6 2.35
FloridaSEC5100%38%9 3.27
South CarolinaSEC2899%6%25 7.54
ArkansasSEC4292%4%32 8.99
VanderbiltSEC4042%2%54 14.40
GeorgiaSEC5318%1%56 17.64
Texas A&MSEC560%1%
Mississippi StSEC990%0%
New OrleansSlnd1730%27%16.09
Houston BaptistSlnd2110%10%
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2130%14%17.74
Stephen F AustinSlnd2250%27%
Sam Houston StSlnd2270%11%17.84
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2320%5%
Abilene ChristianSlnd2920%0%20.00
Incarnate WordSlnd3000%0%20.00
Northwestern StSlnd3030%0%
Central ArkansasSlnd3040%0%
Nicholls StSlnd3090%0%
McNeese StSlnd3160%0%
South DakotaSum1340%19%15.81
Fort WayneSum1440%23%17.78
North Dakota StSum1470%19%17.20
Nebraska OmahaSum1880%9%
South Dakota StSum1910%12%
Oral RobertsSum2370%0%
Western IllinoisSum2960%1%
Texas SouthernSWAC2020%60%15.96
Alcorn StSWAC2870%0%20.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC3110%6%
Jackson StSWAC3260%8%
Grambling StSWAC3310%5%
Alabama StSWAC3430%2%
Mississippi Valley StSWAC3450%1%
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3470%1%
Alabama A&MSWAC3510%0%
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1053%42%66 15.42
New Mexico StWAC1030%45%17.16
Grand CanyonWAC1790%0%20.00
Utah ValleyWAC1950%6%
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC307
Chicago StWAC3390%0%
GonzagaWCC1100%75%2 1.25
St. MarysWCC14100%21%22 6.23
San FranciscoWCC1070%0%
Santa ClaraWCC1400%0%
Loyola MarymountWCC1700%0%
San DiegoWCC2570%0%